文 王登海 年初，石家庄都市圈正式获批跻身"国家队"。石家庄都市圈以石家庄市为中心，与联系紧密的衡水市、 邢台市、定州市、辛集市共同组成，聚焦装备制造、生物医药、现代物流等优势产业集群构建，依 托"一核两极、两圈两廊"空间格局。 进入年中，东北老工业基地的都市圈建设取得实质性突破。8月22日，《长春都市圈发展规划》获国家 发展和改革委员会复函同意，标志着长春都市圈建设从前期规划探索阶段正式迈入落地实施的关键环 节；10月，规划全文正式印发实施，明确以长春为核心，联动吉林、四平、辽源、松原部分区域及延边 朝鲜族自治州西部区域的发展范围，重点围绕汽车及零部件、轨道交通装备、现代农业、冰雪经济等特 色产业打造协同发展链条。 2025年年末，东部沿海区域都市圈布局进一步加密。12月5日，宁波市发展和改革委员会在宁波市网络 民生服务平台"民生e点通"回复网民时称，2024年1月，宁波都市圈已获得国家发展和改革委员会批复。 都市圈是推动区域协调发展、激活经济增长动力的核心载体。国家级都市圈的规划建设，不仅关乎核心 城市与周边区域的协同共生，更对全国经济格局优化、城乡融合发展具有深远影响。 2025年，国家级都市圈持续扩容 ...

12月26日，位于北京城市副中心文化旅游区的湾里项目正式开业。该项目由湾里·王府井WellTown、湾里·汀云小镇及湾里·诺岚酒店三大板块构成，覆盖亲子 家庭、年轻客群等多类消费群体。其中，诺岚酒店元旦假期预订已超四成，预计节前可达六成以上，显现出强劲的消费吸引力。项目通过"轨道+文旅"模式 与北京环球度假区形成联动，未来将协同周边多个在建文旅项目，助推北京城市副中心文化旅游区加快建设成为世界级旅游度假区，进一步激活区域文旅消 费市场。 tp t e CAN an, 0 8 t Holly .. t 11 the list T 8 多家商户也纷纷推出优惠促销活动。开业当天，首旅集团旗下的全聚德湾里店、东来顺湾里店等纷纷为消费者准备了丰富的优惠体验活动。湾里·王府井 WellTown线下服务在延续奥莱品牌专属折扣的基础上，同步再推出零售品牌电子礼券、满额抽奖等多重优惠；小程序渠道则上线"爆品""拼团""秒杀"等多样 化互动玩法，进一步丰富市民游客的消费体验。 诺岚酒店元旦预订已超四成 在配套设施方面，北京湾里诺岚酒店也迎来了不少亲子度假游客。北京湾里诺岚酒店副总经理刘呼佳告诉北京商报记者，目前，酒店接待宾客客源 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

收盘的钟声敲响，很多人的账户是一片凄风苦雨，心里更是五味杂陈。沪指跌穿3900点，收于3873.32点，跌幅0.70%，深市和创业板跌得更狠。全市场4300 多只股票下跌。此刻，我想作为一个在股市里摸爬滚打多年的老朋友，从人性、心理和资金博弈的层面，带你们看清今天的真相，也看清未来的路。一、今 天为什么会跌？不仅仅是行情，更是人性的博弈很多人问，为什么美联储降息25个基点这种"大利好"，A股反而跌了？这就是散户最容易犯的错误——线性 思维。总以为利好=上涨，利空=下跌。但成熟的市场，玩的是预期。1. "利好兑现是利空"，这是贪婪的变现美联储降息落地，对于很多潜伏的资金来说， 任务完成了。他们在降息前买入，就是为了赌这个消息。消息一出，这些获利盘毫不犹豫地砸盘出逃。这就是人性的贪婪——落袋为安的欲望，永远比追逐 更高利润的欲望更强烈。主力资金今天净流出400多亿，这就是证据。2. "恐高"与"避险"，这是恐惧的蔓延今年A股整体表现不错，很多科技股、题材股涨了 一大波。到了年底，公募、私募都要算年终业绩了。面对年底结算的压力，机构们不想冒进，只想守住利润。这种"恐高症"导致了机构抱团瓦解，尤其是那 些前期涨幅巨大 ...

Core Insights - The study examines the impact of high-speed rail (HSR) opening on the investment behavior of listed companies in different regions, indicating that HSR significantly enhances the number of investments made by these companies in other locations [1][2]. Group 1: High-Speed Rail Impact - The opening of HSR facilitates the inflow of capital into regions, leading to the aggregation of production factors such as funds, technology, and labor, thereby expanding local market size [1]. - Larger cities attract more foreign investment compared to smaller cities, resulting in a net capital flow from smaller cities to larger ones, demonstrating a "siphon effect" [1][2]. Group 2: Data and Methodology - The analysis is based on data from listed companies and their subsidiaries from 2000 to 2023, focusing on the years when HSR services were launched between cities [2]. - Key variables include the number of subsidiaries established by parent companies in different cities and a dummy variable indicating whether HSR services were available between those cities in a given year [2][3]. Group 3: Findings and Evidence - The findings provide micro-level evidence supporting the "Lucas Paradox," where capital does not flow from developed to underdeveloped regions as expected, but rather from underdeveloped to developed regions under market integration [1].

Group 1 - The Beijing Universal Resort is experiencing significant growth, with surrounding tourism and hospitality developments enhancing its appeal [1][4] - The "Yi He Live" commercial complex has opened in the Zhangjiawan Design Town, introducing two new hotels to cater to business needs and the overflow effect from the Universal Resort [2][3] - The opening of multiple high-end hotels around the Universal Resort is strategically timed to capture the increased demand during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with booking rates already reaching 50%-60% [3] Group 2 - The 2023 Global Theme Park and Museum Report indicates that visitor numbers to Beijing Universal City reached 9 million, a 109% increase from 4.3 million in 2022, highlighting the resort's strong growth trajectory [4] - New entertainment projects, such as the Beijing Haichang Ocean Park and a family-oriented park featuring international IPs, are under construction to further enhance the area's tourism offerings [4] - The economic impact of a large theme park can be substantial, with a reported consumption leverage effect of 1:18.8, meaning every 1 yuan spent at the park can stimulate 18.8 yuan in local economic activity [4][5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, noting that 70% of stocks declined, particularly in the innovation and entrepreneurship sector [2][13] - A significant highlight is the market capitalization of Ningde Times (宁德时代) surpassing Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台), reaching over 1.8 trillion yuan, marking a notable shift in the tech sector's valuation [3][5] - The article emphasizes the impact of urbanization and infrastructure development on Kweichow Moutai's rise, while Ningde Times' growth is attributed to energy transition and technological advancements [6][27] Group 2 - The article outlines two major developments in the internationalization of the Renminbi, including the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission's announcement to expand the issuance of Renminbi-denominated fixed income products [18][19] - Tencent's plan to issue 8 billion yuan in dim sum bonds marks a significant move in the offshore Renminbi bond market, indicating a growing trend in Renminbi internationalization [24][25] - The article highlights that by the end of 2024, the proportion of trade settled in Renminbi is expected to rise to 33.9%, the first time exceeding 30% since 2015, reflecting an increasing acceptance of the currency in international trade [27][28] Group 3 - The article suggests that the issuance of high-quality Renminbi assets, such as dim sum bonds, is crucial for maintaining currency stability and attracting foreign investment [28][29] - It notes that currently, dim sum bonds offer a premium of 30-40 basis points compared to domestic bonds of the same maturity, presenting an investment opportunity [32] - The potential narrowing of this premium as the dim sum bond market expands could also create capital gain opportunities for investors [33]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing has implemented a new policy that allows eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, aimed at stimulating the real estate market in these areas [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy is designed to accelerate market digestion in peripheral areas, benefiting families looking to buy homes outside the Fifth Ring Road and those with multiple properties for asset allocation [1]. - Eligible families include Beijing residents and non-residents who have paid social insurance or individual income tax in Beijing for a specified duration [1]. - The policy reflects a gradual approach to optimizing home purchase regulations, targeting specific demographics while preventing irrational market overheating [1]. Group 2: Market Data - As of now, 81.4% of new residential property inventory is located outside the Fifth Ring Road, with over 80% of new home sales and more than 50% of second-hand home transactions occurring in these areas from January to July [1]. - In the first half of the year, the total sales area of new residential properties in Beijing was 537.6 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, while residential sales area saw a slight decline of 0.8% [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The policy aims to promote a better balance between living and working locations, encouraging population and industry migration to areas outside the Fifth Ring Road, thereby alleviating pressure on the city center [5]. - The government is focusing on coordinated development to address the "temperature difference" in the real estate market, where core urban areas remain hot while peripheral regions face challenges [5].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing has implemented a new policy to optimize real estate regulations, allowing eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, aiming to accelerate market absorption in these areas [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new policy specifically targets families with Beijing residency or those who have paid social insurance or income tax in Beijing for a certain period [1]. - The policy aims to stimulate demand in the outer areas of Beijing, where 81.4% of new residential inventory and over 50% of second-hand homes are located [1]. - The adjustment of purchase limits is part of a broader strategy to gradually ease restrictions while preventing irrational market overheating [1][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - In the first seven months of the year, over 80% of new residential sales and more than 50% of second-hand transactions occurred outside the Fifth Ring Road [1]. - The policy is expected to send a positive signal to the market, potentially revitalizing demand by lowering barriers and reducing financial burdens for buyers [4]. - The adjustment reflects a response to the current market conditions, with new home sales area increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, although residential sales area saw a slight decline of 0.8% [3]. Group 3: Urban Development and Balance - The policy also aims to promote a better balance between living and working spaces, encouraging population and industry migration to areas outside the city center [5]. - The government is focusing on coordinated development to mitigate the "siphoning effect" seen in core urban areas, ensuring that real estate policies are tailored to local conditions [5]. - The approach taken in Beijing contrasts with Shanghai, where policies are more focused on specific areas due to different market dynamics [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented a 50% import tariff on copper products, while exempting refined copper and copper raw materials, leading to significant fluctuations in COMEX copper prices [2][3][9] - The unexpected exemption of refined copper from tariffs has resulted in a narrowing of the COMEX-LME price spread, with COMEX copper prices experiencing a notable decline [3][4] - The anticipated "siphon effect" in the U.S. market may have already been realized, and concerns about inventory returning to the U.S. are premature, suggesting that copper prices may stabilize and rise due to tight supply and improving global economic conditions [2][5][9] Group 2 - The 232 tariff is expected to benefit Chinese copper processing companies by creating higher product premiums in the U.S. market, stimulating demand for domestically produced copper products [7][9] - U.S. refined copper imports have surged, with a 130% year-on-year increase in the first five months of 2023, indicating a high dependency on imports [4][5] - The copper processing market in the U.S. shows a significant import dependency, with nearly 30% of copper semi-finished products being imported, which could lead to price premiums for domestic products if tariffs are applied [4][5]