Core Viewpoint - The data from May 2025 indicates that the U.S. is entering an active destocking phase, with total inventory increasing by 2.62% year-on-year and total sales increasing by 3.30% year-on-year, both showing a decline from previous values [1][2]. Overall Inventory Cycle - In May, total U.S. inventory increased by 2.62% year-on-year, down from 3.15% previously, while total sales increased by 3.30% year-on-year, down from 3.68% [2]. - The U.S. is confirmed to be in an active destocking phase, with a significant import surge occurring from November 2024 to March 2025, and imports returning to normal levels in April and May 2025 [2]. - A short-term replenishment demand is expected in June and July 2025, but active destocking is anticipated to continue thereafter, with excess imports expected to be depleted by November 2025 [2]. U.S. Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industries in May, six are in active destocking, including upstream oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels, chemical products, midstream transportation, and downstream automotive and automotive parts, textiles, clothing, luxury goods, and food, beverages, and tobacco [3]. - Historical inventory levels show that construction materials, chemical products, metals and mining, paper and forestry products, and technology hardware and equipment have higher inventory levels compared to historical percentiles [3]. Upstream Inventory Trends - Oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels have been in active replenishment from July 2023 to May 2024, transitioning to active destocking by June 2024 and remaining in that phase until May 2025 [4]. - Chemical products are expected to transition from passive replenishment to active destocking by May 2025 [5]. - Construction materials and metals and mining are currently in passive replenishment, with a high likelihood of transitioning to active destocking in the future [6]. Midstream Inventory Trends - The transportation sector is likely in active destocking, while paper and forestry products, as well as electrical equipment and appliances, are in passive replenishment [7]. - Mechanical manufacturing has transitioned to active replenishment as of March 2025 [7]. Downstream Inventory Trends - The automotive and automotive parts sector is in active replenishment as of December 2024 [8]. - Household durable goods, textiles, clothing, luxury goods, food, beverages, and tobacco are in passive replenishment, with some expected to transition to active replenishment in April and May 2025 [8].

Overall Inventory Cycle - In May, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 2.62% year-on-year, down from 3.15% in the previous period[12] - Sales in May rose by 3.30% year-on-year, compared to 3.68% previously[12] - The U.S. is confirmed to be entering an active destocking phase, with a significant import surge occurring from November 2024 to March 2025[12] - A brief replenishment demand is expected in June and July, after which active destocking will continue[12] Industry Inventory Cycle - Six out of fourteen major industries are in active destocking as of May, including oil, gas, chemicals, transportation, automotive parts, textiles, and food[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in May is 32.4%, with construction materials at 83.6% and chemicals at 69.3%[19] - The first round of excess imports is estimated at $180 billion and the second at $100 billion, totaling $280 billion, which may be exhausted by November[12] - Recent rapid declines in copper prices are attributed to a 50% tariff on copper products while exempting raw materials, disrupting supply and demand dynamics[13] Risk Factors - The potential for U.S. economic fundamentals and policies to exceed expectations poses a risk to inventory and pricing stability[8]

Group 1 - The EU and the US are negotiating a trade agreement before the August 1 deadline to avoid a 30% punitive tariff on EU exports [1][2] - The proposed agreement may include a 15% tariff on most EU goods exported to the US, with limited exemptions for certain products [1][2] - If no agreement is reached, the EU plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on approximately €100 billion ($117 billion) worth of US goods, including Boeing aircraft and American cars [2][3] Group 2 - The EU is preparing to implement a "counter-coercion tool" to impose sanctions in various trade areas if negotiations fail [3] - Investor sentiment is cautious due to the ongoing trade tensions, with expectations that a successful agreement could lead to increased market confidence [4][5] - Recent trade agreements, such as the one between the US and Japan, have heightened expectations for a potential US-EU agreement, which could significantly impact US exports [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses three unresolved questions regarding the U.S. copper import tax policy, specifically whether it includes copper products, whether it restricts scrap copper exports, and if there will be any exemption clauses [1] Group 1 - The U.S. copper import tax policy may have significant implications for the copper market, influencing pricing and demand dynamics [1] - The potential restrictions on scrap copper exports could affect global supply chains and pricing strategies for copper [1] - The uncertainty surrounding exemption clauses may lead to volatility in the copper market as stakeholders await clarity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper products, including semi-finished copper goods, is expected to significantly impact various economic sectors and the U.S. copper supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Proposal Details - The proposed tariff will cover copper products used in power grids, military equipment, and data centers, with semi-finished products likely included [1]. - The details of the tariff plan are not fully disclosed, and adjustments to the measures are still possible [1]. - The market had anticipated tariffs on refined copper, but the inclusion of semi-finished products (such as wire, sheet, and pipe) was uncertain until now [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariff is expected to raise production costs across multiple sectors, including electronics, automotive manufacturing, construction, and defense [1]. - In 2022, the U.S. imported 908,000 tons of refined copper, which constituted the largest import category, and these materials are processed into rods, cables, and alloy products [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The U.S. Copper Development Association highlighted that semi-finished copper products are critical to the military supply chain, representing 90% of U.S. semi-finished copper producers [2]. - The U.S. domestic copper production is insufficient to meet its own demand, necessitating significant imports of semi-finished copper products, estimated at 800,000 tons last year [2]. - The potential for a 50% tariff on semi-finished products raises national security concerns, as any disruption in foreign copper supply could severely impact U.S. electricity supply [2]. Group 4: Processing Sector Challenges - Imposing tariffs on semi-finished products will directly increase costs for processing companies, which rely heavily on imported raw materials [3]. - Current domestic processing capacity cannot meet the additional demand for 800,000 tons of semi-finished products, and establishing new capacity may take up to seven years [3].

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective from August 1, 2025, which will not impact Indian companies due to India's copper supply shortage [2][4] - India is a copper resource-poor country, with copper exports to the U.S. being only about 10,000 tons, according to the International Copper Association [3] - India's strong demand for copper is driven by initiatives in renewable energy and electric vehicles, mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs [3] Group 2 - A planning document predicts that copper demand will grow sixfold by 2047, with a plan to add 5 million tons of smelting and refining capacity annually by 2030 [5] - India remains a net importer of copper products, necessitating strategic measures across the entire value chain to meet growing demand [6] - In 2023, India imported 1 million tons of copper concentrate, primarily from a few countries [7] Group 3 - Indonesia is the largest exporter of copper ore and concentrate to India, accounting for approximately 27% of imports, followed by Chile (25%) and Peru (14%) [8] - Together, these four countries (Indonesia, Chile, Peru, and Panama) account for about 75% of India's copper concentrate imports [9]

Core Points - President Trump has issued eight letters regarding tariffs targeting various countries, with Brazil facing a significant 50% tariff, the highest announced to date [2][3] - The tariffs are part of Trump's broader trade agenda, which has caused market volatility and concerns among consumers and businesses regarding global trade flows [7] Group 1: Tariff Details - Brazil is the first country to receive the new tariff notice, with a 50% tariff set to take effect in August, attributed to the previous administration's handling of trade [3][4] - Other countries targeted include Algeria, Libya, Iraq, and Sri Lanka with tariffs of 30%, and Brunei and Moldova with 25%, while the Philippines faces a 20% tariff [3][4] - The tariffs on Iraq and Sri Lanka have been adjusted down from 39% to 25% and from 44% to 20%, respectively [3] Group 2: Trade Relationships - Brazil has a trade deficit with the U.S., importing approximately $44 billion worth of U.S. goods while exporting about $42 billion, making it one of the top 20 trade partners [4] - The other countries mentioned have smaller trade volumes with the U.S., with only the Philippines exporting around $14.1 billion, ranking it among the top 50 partners [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - The announcement of tariffs has led to a significant depreciation of the Brazilian real, with a maximum drop of 2.9%, and a 1.8% decline in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF during after-hours trading [4] - Despite the tariff announcements, market reactions have been muted, with traders focusing on the extended negotiation period until August 1 [4][5] Group 4: Future Negotiations - The U.S. Treasury Deputy Secretary indicated that negotiations could continue even after the tariffs take effect, aiming for a framework agreement by August 1 [6] - Trump has also threatened additional tariffs on specific industries, including a 50% tariff on copper products, which caused a 17% spike in copper prices [6]

Group 1 - The latest tariffs announced by President Trump include a 30% tariff on imports from Algeria, Libya, and Iraq, a 25% tariff on products from Brunei and Moldova, and a 20% tariff on goods from the Philippines, with the rates largely aligning with previous announcements [2][3] - Trump has extended the negotiation deadline to August 1, allowing trade partners more time, which has led to skepticism on Wall Street regarding the actual implementation of these tariffs [2][3] - The announcement of tariffs has caused market volatility and raised concerns among consumers, businesses, and trade partners about the impact on trade flows and the global economy [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the S&P 500 index rising, driven by the technology sector, particularly Nvidia reaching a significant milestone as the first company to achieve a market capitalization of $4 trillion [5][6] - Major technology stocks, including Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet, also experienced increases, indicating renewed investor interest in artificial intelligence [6][7] - Despite the tariff announcements, traders appear to be downplaying the news, focusing instead on the potential for negotiations and agreements [8] Group 3 - Market expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year are providing support for the stock market, with several major investment banks raising their year-end targets for the S&P 500 [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting minutes are anticipated to provide insights into potential adjustments to interest rate outlooks amid current market volatility [9][10] - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the Fed may cut rates in September, with a likelihood of three rate cuts by the end of the year, as the impact of tariffs on price levels is expected to be less significant than previously thought [10]

Group 1: Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced new tariffs on six countries, with rates of 30% for Algeria, Libya, and Iraq, 25% for Brunei and Moldova, and 20% for the Philippines [4][6] - The tariff rates are largely consistent with Trump's earlier announcements, with Iraq's rate reduced from 39% and the Philippines' increased from 17% to 20% [6] - Trump extended the negotiation deadline to August 1, creating uncertainty about the actual implementation of these tariffs [6][8] Group 2: Market Reaction - U.S. stock markets rose, with the S&P 500 index driven by the technology sector, and Nvidia reaching a market capitalization milestone of $4 trillion [10][12] - The Dow Jones is close to its historical high, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also showing gains [11] - Traders appear to be downplaying the impact of the new tariffs, believing there is still room for negotiation [13] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Traders are awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for insights on interest rate adjustments amid current market volatility [15] - Market expectations indicate a nearly complete pricing in of two rate cuts by the end of the year, with a 65% probability for the first cut in September [17] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Fed may lower rates sooner than previously expected due to evidence showing the impact of tariffs is less than anticipated [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper price is expected to continue its weak performance in the short - term. The high monthly spread of Shanghai copper remains, and the short - term accumulation of social inventory has little pressure on the market. However, the potential negative impact from the narrowing C - L spread in the overseas market is increasing, and the weaker - than - expected Chinese economy has also led to a bearish market sentiment [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The main contract of Shanghai copper declined and closed with a doji star, the total open interest decreased, and the price spread structure of the market remained at 440. The spot premium slightly dropped to 440. Due to the weak exchange ratio, the premiums for bonded warehouse receipts and bills of lading of US dollars copper remained unchanged. The social inventory increased by 0.72 tons compared with last Thursday. The COMEX - LME spread narrowed to 690, and the transfer of copper inventory to COMEX is compressing the C - L spread, while the delivery pressure in the LME market is slowing down [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - Antofagasta's Zaldivar copper mine in Chile has obtained environmental approval to continue using the existing water source until 2028, allowing the company to advance research to extend the mine's lifespan to 2051. The project will maintain the current ore mining rate of 260,000 tons per day and copper production of 176,000 tons per year [10]. - According to a CITIC Securities research report, from 2024 to Q1 2025, the profitability of the metal industry increased steadily, with the gold, nickel - cobalt - tin - antimony, rare - earth magnetic materials, and copper sectors leading the industry. The valuation of the metal industry is currently at a relatively low level, and the valuation repair of the industry is worth looking forward to. The industry's dividend return continues to improve, and some stocks have a dividend yield of over 5%. In the second half of 2025, attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities in the gold, rare - earth, copper, aluminum, tin, and tungsten sectors [10]. - Anhui Xinhuid copper Co., Ltd.'s annual 100,000 - ton copper products project's environmental assessment approval decision was publicly announced. The project is located in Chizhou Economic and Technological Development Zone, Anhui Province, covering an area of about 140 mu. After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of copper products [11].