王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 盘贵声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均求源于 公开资料，本公司对这些信息的推确性和完整性不作任何保证。这不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生在何预必。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公 正. 但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议、救资者依据本报告提供的信息进行对授数资所造成的一切后果,本公司拥有负责 。本报告版权仅仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，在何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、度制和发布、如引用、刊发，凝准明出处为宏源期货。且不 得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,按资深谨慎! | | | 沪铜日评20251118: 多位美联储官员对12月降息转鹰或施压铜价 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 变量名称 2025-11-17 2025-11-14 2025-11-07 | | | | 较昨日变动 | 近期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Multiple Fed officials turning hawkish on a December rate cut may put pressure on copper prices. The supply side has production disruptions in multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of various copper products have increased, but high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness. In the inventory end, the inventories of electrolytic copper in China, LME, and COMEX have all increased compared to last week. Therefore, the price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On November 13, 2025, the closing price was 87,550, the trading volume was 102,298 lots, the open interest was 201,007 lots, and the inventory was 43,957 tons. The basis was - 340, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price was 87,210 [3]. - **LME 3 - month Copper Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the closing price (electronic trading) was 10,859, the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 5.96, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 123.33 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On November 13, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 5.0575, and the total inventory was 379,439 [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Multiple copper mines at home and abroad have production disruptions, making the China copper concentrate import index negative and the domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation tight. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week, but high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For long positions established earlier, take profits when the price rises. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, the support level is around 10,300 - 10,500, and the resistance level is around 11,000 - 11,500. For US copper, the support level is around 4.5 - 4.8, and the resistance level is around 5.2 - 5.5 [3].

1 【冠通期货研究报告】 利好兑现后铜价偏弱调整 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 4 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜高开低走，日内下挫。供给方面，铜矿资源偏紧，印尼铜矿端事故预计将 影响全球铜供应至明年，本周铜精矿库存有回升，但依然大幅偏低于去年同期，目前长 协订单价格依然在谈判中，但就目前铜精矿紧张格局之下，市场预计此次长协定价将位 于零或出现负值的水平。据 SMM 统计 10 月份共有 8 家冶炼厂进行检修，11 月份，市场 预计依然有 5 家冶炼厂有检修计划，铜产量呈现下行趋势。近期铜价上涨的情况下，预 计后续废铜供应将有所增加，补充铜矿端偏紧的缺口。需求方面，随着近日铜价的上 涨，下游需求收到一定的抑制，下游开工多有小幅的下移，沪铜近几日温和小幅累库。 综合来看，美联储降息后盘面利好兑现。暂时无向上驱动力，盘面偏弱调整，下游看跌 心理浓厚，高价成交不畅，但中长期铜资源偏紧预期未改，全球低位铜库存支撑铜价 格，中长期依然有上涨预期，目前情绪不振，短期铜价偏弱整理。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 【期现行情】 期货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The high copper prices and weak downstream demand are putting pressure on the copper price. Although the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost certain, the weak downstream demand and imported copper arrivals in China may lead to an adjustment in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors wait for the price to fall before placing long orders and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,770 yuan, down 340 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 66,122 lots; the open interest was 184,021 lots, down 8,088 lots from the previous day; the inventory was 19,829 tons, up 358 tons from the previous day [2]. - **LME Copper Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 8,886 US dollars, down 77.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of bonded and cancelled warrants was 157,950 tons; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 67.16 US dollars, down 0.27 US dollars from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 180.56 US dollars, down 13.64 US dollars from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4.5645 US dollars per pound, down 0.08 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory was 302,744 tons, up 21,669 tons from the previous day [2]. Important Information - **Industry Demand**: The weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 78.4%, and new orders decreased by 0.81 percentage points. The industry shows no signs of recovery, with both the operating rate and orders continuing to shrink [2]. - **Supply - side News**: Teck Resources has postponed a major expansion project and is focusing on solving the production problems of its flagship QB copper mine in Chile [2]. Trading Strategy - **Supply**: There are disruptions in the production of many copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative and decreasing China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates are decreasing, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September is increasing month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: High copper prices and hot weather are suppressing downstream consumption, leading to a decrease in the operating capacity of most downstream copper processing industries [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week, the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange has decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased [2]. - **Recommendation**: Wait for the price to fall before placing long orders. Pay attention to the support levels of 77,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,500 for London copper, and 4.0 - 4.2 for US copper, and the resistance levels of 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, disruptions in copper mine production and transportation overseas, the combination of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, and the continuous accumulation of global electrolytic copper inventories, the Shanghai copper price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors lightly hold short positions on the main contract when the price is high, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 830 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 100,562 lots, an increase of 17,176 lots. The open interest was 215,738 lots, a decrease of 8,934 lots. The inventory was 22,307 tons, a decrease of 1,796 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 445 yuan [2]. - **Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 808 yuan, an increase of 385 yuan from the previous day. The differences between Shanghai copper near - term and continuous contracts also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai copper near - term and continuous first contract was 260 yuan, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,852 US dollars, a decrease of 99.5 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 95,275 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.136 US dollars, an increase of 0.04 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory was 220,954 tons, an increase of 8,815 tons [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economy**: The US Senate version of the "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to 5 trillion US dollars and expanding the fiscal deficit by over 3 trillion US dollars. The ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with the expected interest - rate cut time points being September, October, or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Mining operations of Las Bambas and Constancia were disrupted due to miner road - blockades, which may affect copper production [2]. Investment Strategy - **Supply and Demand**: In July, domestic copper concentrate production and imports may decrease. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative and rising. The export of high - quality scrap copper from Europe is restricted, and trade concerns reduce the willingness to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between electrolytic copper and scrap copper may increase the economy of scrap copper, and the opening of the scrap copper import window may lead to an increase in domestic scrap copper imports. Some copper smelters have production disruptions, while others are under construction or expanding production, which may increase domestic crude copper and electrolytic copper production in July. The import window of electrolytic copper is closed, increasing the inventory in the bonded area, but some large smelters plan to increase exports [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production to lower inventory. The capacity utilization rates of various downstream copper - related industries may decline in July due to the combination of the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, except for the electrolytic copper rod production whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to lightly hold short positions on the main contract when the price is high and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 yuan for support and 81,000 - 83,000 yuan for resistance), London copper (8,300 - 8,600 US dollars for support and 9,900 - 10,200 US dollars for resistance), and US copper (4.6 - 4.9 US dollars for support and 5.2 - 5.5 US dollars for resistance) [3].