Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The high copper prices and weak downstream demand are putting pressure on the copper price. Although the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost certain, the weak downstream demand and imported copper arrivals in China may lead to an adjustment in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors wait for the price to fall before placing long orders and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,770 yuan, down 340 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 66,122 lots; the open interest was 184,021 lots, down 8,088 lots from the previous day; the inventory was 19,829 tons, up 358 tons from the previous day [2]. - **LME Copper Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 8,886 US dollars, down 77.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of bonded and cancelled warrants was 157,950 tons; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 67.16 US dollars, down 0.27 US dollars from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 180.56 US dollars, down 13.64 US dollars from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4.5645 US dollars per pound, down 0.08 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory was 302,744 tons, up 21,669 tons from the previous day [2]. Important Information - **Industry Demand**: The weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 78.4%, and new orders decreased by 0.81 percentage points. The industry shows no signs of recovery, with both the operating rate and orders continuing to shrink [2]. - **Supply - side News**: Teck Resources has postponed a major expansion project and is focusing on solving the production problems of its flagship QB copper mine in Chile [2]. Trading Strategy - **Supply**: There are disruptions in the production of many copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative and decreasing China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates are decreasing, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September is increasing month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: High copper prices and hot weather are suppressing downstream consumption, leading to a decrease in the operating capacity of most downstream copper processing industries [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week, the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange has decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased [2]. - **Recommendation**: Wait for the price to fall before placing long orders. Pay attention to the support levels of 77,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,500 for London copper, and 4.0 - 4.2 for US copper, and the resistance levels of 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, disruptions in copper mine production and transportation overseas, the combination of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, and the continuous accumulation of global electrolytic copper inventories, the Shanghai copper price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors lightly hold short positions on the main contract when the price is high, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 830 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 100,562 lots, an increase of 17,176 lots. The open interest was 215,738 lots, a decrease of 8,934 lots. The inventory was 22,307 tons, a decrease of 1,796 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 445 yuan [2]. - **Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 808 yuan, an increase of 385 yuan from the previous day. The differences between Shanghai copper near - term and continuous contracts also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai copper near - term and continuous first contract was 260 yuan, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,852 US dollars, a decrease of 99.5 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 95,275 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.136 US dollars, an increase of 0.04 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory was 220,954 tons, an increase of 8,815 tons [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economy**: The US Senate version of the "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to 5 trillion US dollars and expanding the fiscal deficit by over 3 trillion US dollars. The ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with the expected interest - rate cut time points being September, October, or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Mining operations of Las Bambas and Constancia were disrupted due to miner road - blockades, which may affect copper production [2]. Investment Strategy - **Supply and Demand**: In July, domestic copper concentrate production and imports may decrease. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative and rising. The export of high - quality scrap copper from Europe is restricted, and trade concerns reduce the willingness to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between electrolytic copper and scrap copper may increase the economy of scrap copper, and the opening of the scrap copper import window may lead to an increase in domestic scrap copper imports. Some copper smelters have production disruptions, while others are under construction or expanding production, which may increase domestic crude copper and electrolytic copper production in July. The import window of electrolytic copper is closed, increasing the inventory in the bonded area, but some large smelters plan to increase exports [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production to lower inventory. The capacity utilization rates of various downstream copper - related industries may decline in July due to the combination of the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, except for the electrolytic copper rod production whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to lightly hold short positions on the main contract when the price is high and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 yuan for support and 81,000 - 83,000 yuan for resistance), London copper (8,300 - 8,600 US dollars for support and 9,900 - 10,200 US dollars for resistance), and US copper (4.6 - 4.9 US dollars for support and 5.2 - 5.5 US dollars for resistance) [3].