Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate cut last week met market expectations, and copper prices reached new highs after a brief pause. However, the weakening rate - cut expectations led to speculative funds reducing positions at high levels. The copper market shows a "high - price but low - trading" state, and copper prices are expected to adjust at high levels [2][3]. - Cathode copper is in the late stage of an uptrend and at a cyclical high, with a risk of correction; LME copper is in the middle stage of an uptrend, with an upward trend and a neutral cycle. The risk - return ratios of going long on Shanghai copper and LME copper are both low, suggesting cautious participation [3][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The Fed cut interest rates last week as expected, but the probability of future rate cuts is low, causing speculative funds to reduce positions at high levels. The downstream shows a "high - price but low - trading" state, and the LME copper cancelled warrants support the premium of bonded - zone copper in China [2]. - Next week, the release of macro - economic data may increase copper - price volatility. Near the end of the year, the start - up rate of downstream enterprises is expected to rise, and copper prices are expected to decline to stimulate demand, but the decline is relatively limited [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The latest price percentile of Shanghai copper is 100%, and its one - week annualized volatility is 17.79%. The latest price percentile of LME copper is 99.87%, and its one - week annualized volatility is 18.65% [12]. - **Trend Judgment**: Cathode copper is in the late stage of an uptrend and at a cyclical high; LME copper is in the middle stage of an uptrend, with an upward trend and a neutral cycle [12]. - **Price Range**: The price range of Shanghai copper is [89777, 95223], with a center of 92500; the price range of LME copper is [11046, 11882], with a center of 11464 [12]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 0.49%, and that of LME copper is 0.81%, both suggesting cautious participation [12]. - **Combination Strategies**: Recommend the "buy futures + sell put options" and "buy call options + sell put options" strategies. In the short - term high - level adjustment of prices, the cost - optimization strategy is recommended [14]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: The basis strategy is expected to strengthen; the calendar - spread strategy is neutral; the cross - border spread strategy is within the normal range, suggesting waiting and seeing [15]. 1.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short Shanghai copper futures contracts at pressure levels and enter the market at 93000 - 95000. They can also consider selling call options or buying put options, currently on hold [18]. - **Raw - Material Management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventory, they can buy long - position futures contracts near support levels. They can also consider buying up - and - out accumulator options at 90000 - 94000 [19]. 1.4 Review of Trading and Hedging Strategies - The previous long - position futures hedging positions bought at low levels can be held. For those not hedged, they can consider the "sell put options + buy call options" combination strategy [19]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretation 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 11; the Central Economic Work Conference was held, setting the direction for economic development; the copper output of some major mines in Chile decreased, and the supply - side vulnerability increased [21]. - **Negative Information**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the future is low; domestic electrolytic - copper inventory continues to accumulate; the proportion of Chinese - produced copper in LME available inventory has increased [22][23]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Event Interpretation - Next week, important macro - economic indicators such as China's fixed - asset investment, unemployment rate, and the US retail sales and unemployment rate will be released [25]. 3. Interpretation of Disk Price, Volume, and Funds 3.1 Domestic Market Interpretation - The trading volume of the Shanghai copper weighted index increased by 3.13% week - on - week, and the position decreased by 1.03%. The market speculation degree rebounded from a low level. The main contract of Shanghai copper shifted to 2602, with the price fluctuating around 92424, closing at 94080 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.77% for the week [29]. - The term structure of Shanghai copper shows a slight backwardation in the forward contracts, and INE international copper shows a "first - backwardation - then - contango" structure [29]. 3.2 Foreign Market Interpretation - LME copper prices reached a new high and then fell, and COMEX copper prices also adjusted after briefly hitting the 550 pressure level. The decline and amplitude of COMEX copper are greater than those of LME copper [32]. - LME copper prices fluctuated in the range of [11434.5, 11952], closing at 11552.5 US dollars/ton, down 1.05% for the week. COMEX copper prices fluctuated in the range of [528, 553.05], closing at 535.85 US cents/pound, down 1.25% for the week [32]. 4. Spot Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Spot Price and Smelting Profit - The spot price showed strong growth in the second half of the week, with a narrowing premium. The scrap - copper processing enterprises' start - up rate declined, and the scrap - copper supply was tight, supporting price increases. The refined - scrap spread showed a "first - decline - then - rebound" trend [36]. - The processing fees of power - rod and enameled - wire enterprises remained flat. The start - up rates of copper - tube, copper - plate, and copper - rod enterprises declined. The smelting income of refined - copper spot increased, and the smelting plants' purchasing willingness rebounded from a low level [36]. 4.2 Import Profit and Import Volume - The import profits of copper and recycled copper further decreased, suppressing domestic enterprises' import willingness. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in November were 42.7 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November decreased by 4.7% year - on - year [38]. - Chile's copper exports in November increased by 4.57% year - on - year, and the exports to China accounted for 23.4%. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November increased by 3% month - on - month and 12.5% year - on - year [39]. 4.3 Inventory Analysis - The "siphon effect" of Comex copper inventory still exists, and both domestic and foreign copper inventories have increased. LME copper cancelled warrants increased significantly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 39.78%, with a slowdown in the rebound rate [44][46]. - Due to the weakening import profit and the rebound of the Yangshan copper premium, domestic smelting enterprises have a high willingness to export copper, resulting in less copper imports [46]. 5. Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectation 5.1 Supply Deduction - In 2025, the global copper - concentrate output is expected to be 1987.1 million tons, and the supply - demand balance of global copper concentrates is - 16.6 million tons. In 2026, the global copper - concentrate output is expected to be 2044.1 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is - 33.1 million tons [51][53]. - China's electrolytic - copper output in November was 110.31 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. It is expected to be 116.88 tons in December, with a year - on - year increase of 6.69% [53][54]. 5.2 Demand Expectation - In November, China's copper - product output was 178.79 tons, with a comprehensive start - up rate of 61.6%. In December, the start - up rates of most industries are expected to increase slightly, and the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper is expected to rebound [56][58]. 5.3 Price Expectation - The domestic and foreign copper prices reached new highs and then fell, and the upward trend has paused. The Fed's rate cut has been fully priced in. Before new positive factors emerge, prices need to adjust at high levels to increase spot - purchasing willingness [62].

1. Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251211: High Prices Suppress Downstream Demand and Pressure Copper Prices" [2] 2. Key Data of Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contracts 2.1 Trading Volume - On December 10, 2025, the trading volume was 143,313 hands, compared with 146,066 hands on December 9, 2025, a decrease of 44,343 hands [3] 2.2 Open Interest - On December 10, 2025, the open interest was 200,373 hands, compared with 210,572 hands on December 9, 2025, a decrease of 10,199 hands [3] 2.3 Inventory - On December 10, 2025, the inventory was 28,931 tons, compared with 29,531 tons on December 9, 2025, a decrease of 600 tons [3] 3. Other Copper - Related Data 3.1 Copper Spot Premium and Discount - SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price on December 10, 2025, was 92,215, a decrease of 515 compared with the previous day [3] - SMM flat - water copper open - premium/discount - average price on December 10, 2025, was - 55, a decrease of 10 compared with the previous day [3] 3.2 Copper Price Spreads - Shanghai - London copper price ratio on December 10, 2025, was 7.9458 [3] - LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on December 10, 2025, was 11,559.5 [3] 4. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis 4.1 Supply - There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, making the Chinese copper concentrate import index continuously negative, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The scrap copper supply has increased, and the domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased compared with the previous month [3] 4.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods have decreased compared with the previous week, while those of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand procurement [3] 4.3 Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper, and the COMEX copper inventory have all increased compared with the previous week [3] 5. Core Viewpoint - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion, and production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines exist. However, high copper prices suppress downstream demand and lead to the expectation of inventory accumulation, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to adjust [3] 6. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then layout long positions. Pay attention to the support level of 85,000 - 90,000 and the resistance level of 97,000 - 107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 10,600 - 11,000 and the resistance level of 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; the support level of 5.0 - 5.2 and the resistance level of 5.6 - 6.0 for US copper [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [3] 2. Core View - High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, leading to inventory accumulation expectations and potential adjustments in Shanghai copper prices. The report suggests that investors take profits on previous long positions at high prices, wait for price corrections to establish new long positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels for different copper markets [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures mixed contract on December 9, 2025, was 91,090, down 1,880 from the previous day [3] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume on December 9, 2025, was 190,409 lots, a decrease of 4,520 lots from the previous day [3] - **Open Interest**: The open interest on December 9, 2025, was 210,572 lots, a decrease of 19,473 lots from the previous day [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory on December 9, 2025, was 29,531 tons, a decrease of 425 tons from the previous day [3] - **Basis and Premium**: Various basis and premium indicators showed different changes, such as the Shanghai copper basis (SMM 1 electrolytic copper - average price) increasing by 1,795 [3] 3.2 London Copper Futures - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures on December 9, 2025, was 11,470, down 205 from the previous day [3] - **Contract Spreads**: The 0 - 3 month and 3 - 15 month contract spreads of LME copper futures showed different degrees of decline [3] 3.3 COMEX Copper Futures - **Closing Price**: The closing price of the COMEX copper futures active contract on December 9, 2025, was 5.3295, down 0.12 from the previous day [3] - **Total Inventory**: The total inventory on December 9, 2025, was 443,047, an increase of 6,194 from the previous day [3] 3.4 Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances at multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tightening supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month [3] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods has decreased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rates of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand procurement [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3] 3.5 Trading Strategy - Take profits on previous long positions at high prices, wait for price corrections to establish new long positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels: 85,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper, 10,600 - 11,000 for London copper, and 5.0 - 5.2 for US copper; resistance levels are 97,000 - 107,000 for Shanghai copper, 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper, and 5.6 - 6.0 for US copper [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core View - Overseas copper mines face production disruptions, but the cautious or non - supportive stance of multiple Fed officials towards a December rate cut may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai copper prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data 1. Shanghai Copper Futures - On November 17, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86,450, down 450 from the previous day; trading volume was 101,029 hands, down 2,627; open interest was 179,927 hands, down 12,366; inventory was 56,965 tons, up 7,135; the basis was 60, down 135 [1] - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 86,510, down 585; SMM flat - copper average premium/discount was 65, up 60; SMM premium - copper average premium/discount was 165, up 50 [1] 2. London Copper - On November 17, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic session) was 10,766.5, down 79.5; LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0, down 3.88; LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 0, down 139.44; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0295, up 0.02 [1] 3. COMEX Copper - On November 17, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.9895, down 0.07; total inventory was 384,517, up 5,078 [1] Group 4: Supply, Demand and Inventory Analysis 1. Supply - Multiple overseas copper mines have production disruptions, making China's copper concentrate import index continuously negative, indicating a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation; scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees have widened; copper smelter maintenance capacity in November decreased month - on - month [1] 2. Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper products, copper wire and cable, copper paint packaging, copper plate and strip, copper tubes, and brass rods increased compared to last week, while that of recycled copper rods decreased; lower copper prices led to an increase in downstream new orders [1] 3. Inventory - China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared to last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [1] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can try short positions on the main contract at high prices. Pay attention to the support levels around 82,000 - 84,000 and resistance levels around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; support levels around 10,300 - 10,500 and resistance levels around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; support levels around 4.5 - 4.8 and resistance levels around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Multiple Fed officials turning hawkish on a December rate cut may put pressure on copper prices. The supply side has production disruptions in multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of various copper products have increased, but high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness. In the inventory end, the inventories of electrolytic copper in China, LME, and COMEX have all increased compared to last week. Therefore, the price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On November 13, 2025, the closing price was 87,550, the trading volume was 102,298 lots, the open interest was 201,007 lots, and the inventory was 43,957 tons. The basis was - 340, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price was 87,210 [3]. - **LME 3 - month Copper Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the closing price (electronic trading) was 10,859, the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 5.96, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 123.33 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On November 13, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 5.0575, and the total inventory was 379,439 [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Multiple copper mines at home and abroad have production disruptions, making the China copper concentrate import index negative and the domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation tight. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week, but high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For long positions established earlier, take profits when the price rises. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, the support level is around 10,300 - 10,500, and the resistance level is around 11,000 - 11,500. For US copper, the support level is around 4.5 - 4.8, and the resistance level is around 5.2 - 5.5 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the bullish factors on the copper futures market have been realized. Currently, there is no upward driving force, and the market is undergoing a weak adjustment. The downstream market has a strong bearish sentiment, resulting in poor high - price transactions. However, the medium - and long - term expectation of tight copper resources remains unchanged, and the low global copper inventory supports the copper price, so there is still an upward expectation in the medium and long term. In the short term, the copper price will be weakly sorted [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low, showing an intraday decline. The copper ore resources are tight. The accident in the Indonesian copper mine is expected to affect the global copper supply until next year. Although the copper concentrate inventory has rebounded this week, it is still significantly lower than the same period last year. The market expects the long - term contract price to be zero or negative. In October, 8 smelters carried out maintenance, and 5 are expected to do so in November, leading to a downward trend in copper production. With the recent rise in copper prices, the supply of scrap copper is expected to increase to supplement the tight copper ore. The rise in copper prices has suppressed downstream demand, with a slight decline in downstream operating rates and a mild and small increase in Shanghai copper inventory in recent days [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low, showing an intraday decline [1][4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 70 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 10 yuan/ton. On November 3, 2025, the LME official price was 10887 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 14.5 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of November 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.13 US cents/pound [8] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 40,100 tons, an increase of 4674 tons from the previous period. As of November 3, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 100,100 tons, a decrease of 4300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 133,600 tons, a decrease of 325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 358,500 short tons, an increase of 6998 short tons from the previous period [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The high copper prices and weak downstream demand are putting pressure on the copper price. Although the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost certain, the weak downstream demand and imported copper arrivals in China may lead to an adjustment in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors wait for the price to fall before placing long orders and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,770 yuan, down 340 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 66,122 lots; the open interest was 184,021 lots, down 8,088 lots from the previous day; the inventory was 19,829 tons, up 358 tons from the previous day [2]. - **LME Copper Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 8,886 US dollars, down 77.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of bonded and cancelled warrants was 157,950 tons; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 67.16 US dollars, down 0.27 US dollars from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 180.56 US dollars, down 13.64 US dollars from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4.5645 US dollars per pound, down 0.08 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory was 302,744 tons, up 21,669 tons from the previous day [2]. Important Information - **Industry Demand**: The weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 78.4%, and new orders decreased by 0.81 percentage points. The industry shows no signs of recovery, with both the operating rate and orders continuing to shrink [2]. - **Supply - side News**: Teck Resources has postponed a major expansion project and is focusing on solving the production problems of its flagship QB copper mine in Chile [2]. Trading Strategy - **Supply**: There are disruptions in the production of many copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative and decreasing China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates are decreasing, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September is increasing month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: High copper prices and hot weather are suppressing downstream consumption, leading to a decrease in the operating capacity of most downstream copper processing industries [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week, the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange has decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased [2]. - **Recommendation**: Wait for the price to fall before placing long orders. Pay attention to the support levels of 77,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,500 for London copper, and 4.0 - 4.2 for US copper, and the resistance levels of 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, disruptions in copper mine production and transportation overseas, the combination of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, and the continuous accumulation of global electrolytic copper inventories, the Shanghai copper price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors lightly hold short positions on the main contract when the price is high, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 830 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 100,562 lots, an increase of 17,176 lots. The open interest was 215,738 lots, a decrease of 8,934 lots. The inventory was 22,307 tons, a decrease of 1,796 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 445 yuan [2]. - **Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 808 yuan, an increase of 385 yuan from the previous day. The differences between Shanghai copper near - term and continuous contracts also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai copper near - term and continuous first contract was 260 yuan, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,852 US dollars, a decrease of 99.5 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 95,275 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.136 US dollars, an increase of 0.04 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory was 220,954 tons, an increase of 8,815 tons [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economy**: The US Senate version of the "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to 5 trillion US dollars and expanding the fiscal deficit by over 3 trillion US dollars. The ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with the expected interest - rate cut time points being September, October, or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Mining operations of Las Bambas and Constancia were disrupted due to miner road - blockades, which may affect copper production [2]. Investment Strategy - **Supply and Demand**: In July, domestic copper concentrate production and imports may decrease. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative and rising. The export of high - quality scrap copper from Europe is restricted, and trade concerns reduce the willingness to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between electrolytic copper and scrap copper may increase the economy of scrap copper, and the opening of the scrap copper import window may lead to an increase in domestic scrap copper imports. Some copper smelters have production disruptions, while others are under construction or expanding production, which may increase domestic crude copper and electrolytic copper production in July. The import window of electrolytic copper is closed, increasing the inventory in the bonded area, but some large smelters plan to increase exports [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production to lower inventory. The capacity utilization rates of various downstream copper - related industries may decline in July due to the combination of the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, except for the electrolytic copper rod production whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to lightly hold short positions on the main contract when the price is high and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 yuan for support and 81,000 - 83,000 yuan for resistance), London copper (8,300 - 8,600 US dollars for support and 9,900 - 10,200 US dollars for resistance), and US copper (4.6 - 4.9 US dollars for support and 5.2 - 5.5 US dollars for resistance) [3].