Core Viewpoint - Demand is gradually weakening, but copper prices have risen due to short-covering [2] Group 1: Price Trends - As of June 27, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 79,920 CNY/ton, up 2.47% from June 20; LME copper closed at 9,879 USD/ton, up 2.26% [2] - The rise in copper prices is attributed to expectations of U.S. tariffs on copper, leading to a global inventory shift towards the U.S. [2] Group 2: Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 11% and LME copper inventory decreased by 4.6% [3] - As of June 27, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 624,000 tons, down 12.4% from the previous week [3] - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 398,000 tons, down 1.8% [3] Group 3: Supply and Production - From January to April 2025, global copper concentrate production increased by 2% year-on-year [4] - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [4] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,965 CNY/ton, up 1,045 CNY/ton from June 20 [4] Group 4: Smelting and Processing - In May 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1383 million tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 12.9% year-on-year [5] - As of June 27, 2025, the TC spot price was -43.56 USD/ton, showing a slight increase but remaining at a low level since September 2007 [5] Group 5: Demand Indicators - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 70.18% as of June 26, 2025 [6] - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline by 13% year-on-year from July to September 2025 [6] - The operating rate for brass rods was 50.6% in May 2025, down 4.4 percentage points month-on-month [6] Group 6: Futures Market - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 37% week-on-week, reaching 216,000 lots as of June 27, 2025 [7][8] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 24% week-on-week, totaling 29,000 lots as of June 24, 2025 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the copper industry, with specific recommendations for companies such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the improvement in macroeconomic expectations leading to an upward trend in copper prices. As of June 6, 2025, the closing price for SHFE copper was 78,930 RMB/ton, up 1.0% from May 30, and LME copper closed at 9,671 USD/ton, up 1.83% from May 30. The report notes that while trade conflicts have eased, their negative impact on the economy has yet to manifest, which may suppress copper price increases. Supply disruptions in copper mining are increasing, and demand risks are present as export stocking effects weaken and the domestic market enters a low season. However, copper prices are expected to gradually rise following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 11%. As of June 6, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 747,000 tons, down 6.1% from the previous week. Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 435,000 tons, down 0.4% week-on-week. LME copper global inventory was 132,000 tons, down 10.7% week-on-week, and SMM copper social inventory was 149,000 tons, up 7.3% week-on-week [2][25]. Supply - The report indicates that the TC spot price was -42.9 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.6 USD/ton from the previous week. In May 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1383 million tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 12.9% year-on-year. The report also highlights that the domestic copper concentrate production in March 2025 was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [3][49][70]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 76.08% as of June 5, 2025. The report notes that the cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand. Additionally, the report mentions that the air conditioning sector, which accounts for about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw a year-on-year increase of 2% in household air conditioning production in April, while refrigerator production decreased by 5% [3][79][98]. Futures - As of June 6, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position increased by 18% week-on-week, and COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 7%. The SHFE copper active contract position was 204,000 lots, reflecting a 18% increase from the previous week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions reached 24,000 lots, up 6.7% week-on-week [4][33]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report notes that as of June 6, 2025, the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates was 98.2%. The U.S. dollar index was at 99.2031, down 0.24% from the previous week. The report also provides insights into U.S. inflation rates and employment statistics, indicating a stable economic environment that could influence copper demand [4][38].