Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is almost certain, combined with the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning into the peak season, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory remaining at a low level, which may lead to a relatively strong upward trend in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,780, up 370 from the previous trading day; the trading volume was 78,481 lots, an increase of 7,420; the open interest was 180,644 lots, an increase of 6,818; the inventory was 20,200 tons, a decrease of 1,212 [2]. - **SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price**: On September 1, 2025, it was 79,900, up 510 from the previous trading day [2]. - **LME 3 - month Copper Futures**: On September 1, 2025, the closing price (electronic trading) was 9,884, down 18 from the previous trading day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 158,875 tons, a decrease of 158,875 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4.585, up 0.08 from the previous trading day; the total inventory was 277,843 tons, an increase of 4,076 [2]. Industry News - **Consumption**: Although the copper foil operating rate has been objectively high recently, limited by low consumer demand, it has limited support for the operating rate recovery of refined copper rod enterprises. In August, as the steel rod operating rate declined, the substitution effect of refined copper rod consumption was more obvious in Jiangxi enterprises, while enterprises in other regions did not feel obvious improvement [2]. - **Production**: In August, the domestic electrolytic copper output decreased slightly by 0.28 tons. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will significantly decline, and the expansion of some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from scrap copper will also decrease. SMM expects that the electrolytic copper output in September will drop significantly by 5.25 tons and remain at a low level in October [2]. - **Projects**: The floating pontoon pumping station and return water system, a key supporting project of the expansion project of Mirador Copper Mine under Tongling Non - Ferrous Metals, have completed the overall commissioning, marking a solid step towards full - scale completion and production [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Scrap Copper**: European high - quality scrap copper is restricted from export, and due to the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, direct imports of US scrap copper by traders are sluggish. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper weakens the economy of scrap copper. The scrap copper import window is gradually opening, and the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in September may decrease month - on - month, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation [2]. - **Refined Copper**: Domestic smelters' smelting and maintenance capacity in September may increase month - on - month, and the domestic refined copper production (import) volume in September may decrease (increase) month - on - month. Some new projects are expected to be put into production in the future, which may affect the domestic electrolytic copper production volume in September [2]. Investment Strategy - Hold previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Due to the uncertainty in the tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and China, and the expectation of intensified domestic economic stimulus policies along with the decreasing domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, the copper price is expected to be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors lightly go long on the main contract at low prices, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 6, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,600 yuan, up 380 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 83,514 lots, down 6,040 lots; the open interest was 172,625 lots, up 4,071 lots; the inventory was 24,922 tons, down 3,244 tons [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,190 yuan, up 240 yuan; the Shanghai copper basis was 590 yuan, down 140 yuan; the spot premium or discount in different regions showed different changes [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 310 yuan, up 80 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 370 yuan, down 20 yuan; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 380 yuan, up 50 yuan [2]. - **London Copper and COMEX Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on May 2 was 9,365.5 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants on May 2 was 195,625 tons. The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper on May 6 was 4.755 dollars, up 0.06 dollars, and the total inventory was 154,632 tons, up 5,306 tons [2]. Industry News - **Upstream**: Aurubis will start an 800 - million - dollar US scrap copper smelter in 2025, aiming to process 180,000 tons of scrap copper and produce 70,000 tons of refined copper annually. Many mines and smelters have production changes, such as the复产 of Antamina copper mine in Peru, the suspension of production in some plants in Chile and Kazakhstan, and the planned production of some expansion projects [2][3]. - **Downstream**: The capacity utilization rate of some copper - related downstream industries may change. For example, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod enterprises may increase, while that of some industries like copper foil packaging wire and brass rod may decrease [3]. Macro - economic Situation The US Congress reached a budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of 5.3 trillion dollars and a debt ceiling increase of 5 trillion dollars in the next decade. The Trump administration proposed to cut the federal fiscal budget by 183 billion dollars in 2026. The better - than - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI and employment data in April postponed the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut to July, September, or October [3].