Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and improved manufacturing PMI in September. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 85750, with a basis of - 1000, indicating a discount to futures, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 9, copper inventory increased by 275 to 139475 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3745 tons to 95034 tons compared to last week. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price is expected to remain strong [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned as logical factors, but no clear classification of bullish or bearish factors is given [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [23].

Report Core View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policies being relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in August rising to 49.4% [2] - The basis shows a neutral situation with the spot price at 79355 and a basis of -55, indicating a discount to the futures [2] - Copper inventories on August 29 increased by 950 to 158900 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 1950 tons from last week to 79748 tons, considered neutral [2] - The copper price closed above the 20-day moving average with the 20-day moving average moving upward, showing a bullish signal [2] - The main positions are net long and increasing, also a bullish indication [2] - Currently, copper prices are expected to move in a range as inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the market awaits consumption guidance in the September peak season, with no prominent long - short contradictions [2] Market Situation Analysis - In terms of recent factors, domestic policy easing is a positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative one [3] - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table reveals production, import, export, and consumption data from 2018 - 2024, with a supply - demand balance of 110,000 tons in 2024 [22] Market Conditions - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14] - Processing fees have declined [16]