Group 1: Report's Core View - Trump's copper import tariff policy changed unexpectedly, causing COMEX copper to plummet by over 20%. The Fed's hawkish stance weakened the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded. The Politburo meeting did not meet the market's expectations of strong stimulus policies. Affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, China's July manufacturing PMI declined, and market sentiment turned cautious. Fundamentally, there is a co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. During the off - season of demand, inventories at home and abroad have increased, dragging down copper prices. In the short term, Shanghai copper is under pressure and falling to test the support of the lower moving average. It is recommended that new speculators wait for the callback and go long at a low price (77,500 - 78,000). Upstream industrial enterprises should wait for the rebound and sell hedging at a high price to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, copper is still optimistic as an important strategic metal in the Sino - US game. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 80,000], and for LME copper is [9,500, 9,900] US dollars/ton [6][58]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Situation US Policy and Dollar Index - Trump announced a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1, but excluded core upstream products such as electrolytic copper and copper concentrate. COMEX copper plummeted by 20%. The Fed's hawkish stance after the July interest rate meeting completely dispelled the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The probability of a September interest rate cut dropped from 65% to 45%. The US dollar index rebounded to 100, with a monthly increase of 3.5%, putting pressure on copper prices [8][11]. China's Economic Data - The Politburo meeting on July 30 did not introduce strong stimulus policies, and the market's expectations were dashed. Affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4. The LPR for 1 - year and 5 - year loans remained unchanged, and the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut policy restricted China's monetary policy space. Market risk appetite declined [14]. Group 3: Shanghai Copper Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - In 2025, global copper mines faced continuous disruptions, and copper smelting capacity expanded, leading to a shortage of copper raw materials and record - low copper processing fees. In June, China imported 2349700 tons of copper concentrate, a year - on - year increase of 1.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June, the cumulative import of copper concentrate was 14.777 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.23%. The sample smelting start - up rate of the electrolytic copper industry in July was 88.19%, a month - on - month increase of 2.43%. In June, the domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. It is estimated that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will increase by 15500 tons month - on - month and 122200 tons year - on - year [31][35]. Demand Side - From January to June, power grid engineering investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. New energy vehicle production was 6.872 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. However, from July to August, affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, it was the traditional off - season for terminal consumption, and the start - up rate of downstream copper products declined. In June, the start - up rate of copper product enterprises was 63.08%, and the copper product output was 2.2145 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [38]. Inventory - During the off - season of demand, overseas inventories increased. COMEX copper inventory increased by 45776 tons to 257900 tons, and LME copper inventory increased by 46950 tons to 138200 tons. As of July 31, China's electrolytic copper social inventory was 119300 tons, a decrease of 12500 tons from the beginning of the month, and the SHFE copper inventory was 73423 tons, a decrease of 11166 tons from the beginning of the month [45]. Group 4: Monthly Summary and Outlook Market Situation - Macroscopically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, the US dollar index rebounded, and the US copper import tariff policy deviated from market expectations. Domestically, the Politburo meeting did not introduce strong stimulus policies, and market risk appetite declined. Fundamentally, in the short term, the contradiction in copper supply and demand lies in inventory accumulation during the off - season and inventory return pressure. In the medium term, it is the co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. In the long term, it is the uncertainty of demand caused by global trade wars and Sino - US confrontation versus the explosive demand for copper in green power and new energy vehicles [57]. Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai copper is under pressure and falling. It is recommended that new speculators wait for the callback and go long at a low price (77,500 - 78,000). Upstream industrial enterprises should wait for the rebound and sell hedging at a high price. In the long term, copper is still optimistic. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 80,000], and for LME copper is [9,500, 9,900] US dollars/ton [58].

Group 1 - COMEX copper futures experienced a significant drop of 15.9%, currently priced at $4.73 per pound [1] - President Trump signed an announcement addressing the impact of copper imports on U.S. national security [1] - Cathode copper has been excluded from import tariffs [1]