从后市来看，11月至12月铝价将呈现"下行有支撑，上行有阻力"的高位震荡格局。宏观层面，11月中美 关税窗口期关注出口端变化、海外供应扰动尚未缓解，美联储12月或再降息，叠加库存偏低等因素，将 共同支撑铝价维持高位运行。但四季度后市需求端逐渐过渡到淡季，终端需求收缩，下游加工企业开工 率的缓步回落，将对铝价形成拖累。 人民财讯11月14日电，11月13日，国内期货市场上沪铝再度走强，主力合约2601刷新年内高点，达2.21 万元/吨。"近期铝价走势整体震荡偏强，自10月底强势上涨后，多次刷新年内高点。其背后是中美关税 磋商达成共识、美联储如期降息、中东地缘局势缓和等宏观利多的集中释放，以及采暖季西北铝锭外运 受限、华东到货减少的基本面支撑，也是资金流通性宽松背景下，铝价金融属性增强的体现。"卓创资 讯铝市场分析师刘云艳表示。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a new annual high of 22,100 yuan/ton, driven by multiple macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Aluminum prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend since late October, with an average price of 21,000 yuan/ton in October, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.26% and a year-on-year increase of 1.40% [2]. - As of November 10, the average price of domestic A00 aluminum was 21,500 yuan/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 0.14% and a rise of 690 yuan/ton from the October low, representing a 3.32% increase [2]. Group 2: Macro Factors Supporting Prices - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 30 has alleviated global liquidity pressures and improved market risk appetite [3]. - The consensus reached in the US-China tariff negotiations, including the reduction of certain aluminum product trade barriers, has eased concerns about export restrictions, benefiting aluminum processing enterprises [3]. - The stabilization of energy costs due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has further supported the aluminum industry [3]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply-demand balance is tight, with significant constraints on the supply side, particularly due to transportation limitations in the northwest during the heating season, leading to reduced aluminum ingot shipments to East China [4]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached the policy limit of 45 million tons, with limited new capacity additions, maintaining an operating rate above 96% [4]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The demand side is showing signs of differentiation, with a slight decline in operating rates among downstream processing enterprises as the peak season ends, leading to reduced terminal orders [5]. - The construction sector is experiencing a drop in operating rates to around 50% due to winter impacts, while demand in the aluminum cable sector remains stable but is slowing due to rising aluminum prices [5]. Group 5: Future Price Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to exhibit a high-level oscillation pattern from November to December, with support from macro factors and low inventory levels, but facing downward pressure from seasonal demand decline [6][7]. - The projected price range for A00 aluminum from November to December is between 20,500 yuan/ton and 22,000 yuan/ton, with potential for new highs in November before a gradual weakening towards the end of the month [7].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a mixed outlook with increasing inventory levels and weak demand, leading to potential price fluctuations in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of July 4, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 38,485 tons, an increase of 10,228 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - In the fourth week of June 2025, Brazil exported a total of 519,900 tons of bauxite and alumina, down from 545,700 tons in July of the previous year, with a daily average shipment of 26,000 tons, a decrease of 4.73% year-on-year [1]. - On July 7, the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas was 159,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous Thursday and 12,000 tons from the previous Monday, indicating a continued accumulation trend in the short term [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Jinrui Futures noted that while the consumption side is showing negative feedback and inventory accumulation is still relatively low, the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase due to weakening demand and expectations of aluminum rod production shifts [2]. - The current spot market shows marginal improvements but remains under pressure, with backwardation and basis narrowing to low levels, while inventory depletion supports price holding by traders [2]. - Zhongtai Futures highlighted that despite improving market risk appetite due to trade agreements, the demand for aluminum rods is weak, leading to expectations of increased aluminum ingot inventory, although the space for inventory rebound remains limited [3].