News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a mixed outlook with increasing inventory levels and weak demand, leading to potential price fluctuations in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of July 4, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 38,485 tons, an increase of 10,228 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - In the fourth week of June 2025, Brazil exported a total of 519,900 tons of bauxite and alumina, down from 545,700 tons in July of the previous year, with a daily average shipment of 26,000 tons, a decrease of 4.73% year-on-year [1]. - On July 7, the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas was 159,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous Thursday and 12,000 tons from the previous Monday, indicating a continued accumulation trend in the short term [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Jinrui Futures noted that while the consumption side is showing negative feedback and inventory accumulation is still relatively low, the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase due to weakening demand and expectations of aluminum rod production shifts [2]. - The current spot market shows marginal improvements but remains under pressure, with backwardation and basis narrowing to low levels, while inventory depletion supports price holding by traders [2]. - Zhongtai Futures highlighted that despite improving market risk appetite due to trade agreements, the demand for aluminum rods is weak, leading to expectations of increased aluminum ingot inventory, although the space for inventory rebound remains limited [3].