消息面 2025年11月第3周，共计14个工作日，巴西累计装出铝矿石和铝精矿25.35万吨，去年11月为40.06万吨。 日均装运量为1.81万吨/日，较去年11月的2.11万吨/日减少14.12%。 铜冠金源期货： 近两日美联储官员接连发表鸽派讲话，美联储降息预期重新升温，市场风险偏好切换，铝价企稳。基本 面前期铝价强制抑制部分消费，近期价格回落下游补货增加，出库加快，周内铝锭社会库存继续去库。 海外继续关注冰岛铝厂减产进度。风险偏好转好，国内去库支持，提供铝价支撑，预计企稳震荡。 华联期货： 行业方面，近期宏观政策预期和经济数据偏空，利空铝价出现回调。行业方面，当前氧化铝行业尚未出 现大规模减产，且进口窗口持续开启，在供应过剩的格局下，预计氧化铝价格将承压下行。国内电解铝 运行产能总体持稳，产量维持高位。尽管北方地区季节性环保限产对局部生产有所影响，但由于停槽后 产量呈缓慢衰减，对全国总供给的实际冲击较为有限。海外电解铝供应有走紧预期。市场需求步入消费 淡旺季交替时段，高铝价显著抑制了下游的采购意愿，现货市场整体成交平淡，下游企业以刚需补库为 主。从结构上来看，需求分化态势明显，建筑型材需求因房地产行业低 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current state of the aluminum market, including inventory levels, shipping data, and price dynamics [1] - As of August, aluminum ingot inventories in Guangdong, Wuxi, and Gongyi totaled 463,500 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous period [1] - In Brazil, a total of 410,100 tons of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate were shipped in the fourth week of August, down from 532,400 tons in the same period last year, with a daily average shipping volume of 25,600 tons, reflecting a 5.9% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The current spot price ratio of electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai to London is 7.93, with an import loss of 1,353.55 yuan per ton, compared to a previous loss of 1,225.72 yuan per ton [1] - Hualian Futures suggests that the recovery of electrolytic aluminum plants in Southwest China is nearing completion, leading to a slowdown in raw material stocking and inventory reduction, which may weaken future purchasing intentions [1] - The article notes that August is typically a consumption off-season, with the terminal market not yet stabilizing, but there is an expectation for demand to rebound as the "golden September and silver October" approach [1] Group 3 - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures indicates that the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and new real estate policies in Shanghai contribute to a favorable macroeconomic atmosphere [1] - The basic fundamentals suggest that aluminum prices are being suppressed by high consumption, and the increase in social inventory of aluminum ingots due to weekend arrivals is being monitored for the consumption peak season [1] - Short-term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate under macroeconomic influences, with a focus on consumer performance [1]

Market Review - On August 6, the Shanghai aluminum futures contract 2509 opened higher and closed at 20,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan or 0.44% from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - In the week ending July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 611,900 tons of bauxite and aluminum concentrate, compared to 444,100 tons in August of the previous year. The average daily shipment increased by 37.77% to 26,600 tons per day from 19,300 tons per day last August [2] - As of August 4, SMM reported a domestic aluminum ingot social inventory of 564,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The increase in smelting and casting volume, combined with the seasonal consumption slowdown, continues to support strong inventory accumulation expectations [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyuan Futures noted that on the supply side, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a decrease in aluminum water ratio and an increase in casting volume, leading to more market circulation supply. The ongoing inventory accumulation is expected to suppress aluminum prices. On the demand side, the downstream market remains in a seasonal lull, with spot purchases being made as needed, and the current spot premium showing limited upward momentum. Despite the decline in aluminum prices, there is no significant improvement in orders for processing plants [4] - Hualian Futures highlighted that the market is currently observing the impact of the rainy season on transportation in Guinea, with supply remaining ample. The production and operating rates of alumina continue to rise, and new capacity is being put into production, leading to ongoing expectations of market oversupply. Inventory is increasing, and while warehouse receipts have slightly risen, they remain low, with spot prices stable. The Shanghai aluminum market is constrained by the seasonal lull and high prices, with slight inventory increases and limited short-term upward momentum. However, the supply side has very limited production increase potential, providing some price support. The domestic "anti-involution" policy remains stable alongside long-term goals of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth." Although short-term upward drivers for Shanghai aluminum are limited, the mid-term peak season in September and October supports a bullish outlook. It is recommended to maintain a primary long position, with a reference support level for Shanghai aluminum 2509 at 20,200 yuan/ton [4]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a mixed outlook with increasing inventory levels and weak demand, leading to potential price fluctuations in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of July 4, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 38,485 tons, an increase of 10,228 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - In the fourth week of June 2025, Brazil exported a total of 519,900 tons of bauxite and alumina, down from 545,700 tons in July of the previous year, with a daily average shipment of 26,000 tons, a decrease of 4.73% year-on-year [1]. - On July 7, the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas was 159,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous Thursday and 12,000 tons from the previous Monday, indicating a continued accumulation trend in the short term [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Jinrui Futures noted that while the consumption side is showing negative feedback and inventory accumulation is still relatively low, the pressure on aluminum ingot inventory is expected to increase due to weakening demand and expectations of aluminum rod production shifts [2]. - The current spot market shows marginal improvements but remains under pressure, with backwardation and basis narrowing to low levels, while inventory depletion supports price holding by traders [2]. - Zhongtai Futures highlighted that despite improving market risk appetite due to trade agreements, the demand for aluminum rods is weak, leading to expectations of increased aluminum ingot inventory, although the space for inventory rebound remains limited [3].