1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a small amount of maintenance is implemented, the operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the market supply pressure eases slightly. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some enterprises may carry out maintenance, which will help alumina stabilize and rebound. However, the import window is still open, the ore price continues to decline, and the cost support weakens. The upside of the alumina rebound is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - Alumina futures (active): The price rose from 2,672 yuan/ton on January 21, 2026, to 2,768 yuan/ton on January 30, 2026, an increase of 96 yuan/ton [3]. - Domestic alumina spot: The price dropped from 2,657 yuan/ton to 2,646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot premium: It decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton [3]. - Australian alumina FOB: The price rose from 304 US dollars/ton to 306 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton [3]. - Import profit and loss: It decreased from -25.41 yuan/ton to -44.41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [3]. - Exchange inventory: The warehouse inventory increased from 119,128 tons to 171,104 tons, an increase of 51,976 tons; the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [3]. - Bauxite: The prices of bauxite in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Guinea all decreased to varying degrees [3]. Market Review - Alumina futures: The main contract rose 1.62% last week, closing at 2,768 yuan/ton [4]. - Alumina spot: The national weighted average price on Friday was 2,646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week [4]. - Bauxite: In the domestic market, the production of bauxite in the northern region has recovered, the supply is sufficient, and the price is under pressure to decline; the production in the southern region has not changed significantly. In the overseas market, the trading is light, and a large mining enterprise in Guinea has lowered the long - term contract price for the first quarter [4]. - Supply: The total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in the country is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 85.29 million tons/year, a decrease of 2 million tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate of domestic alumina plants decreased by 1.66 percentage points to 77.31% [4]. - Consumption: The electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia continued to release new production capacity, the operating capacity increased compared with the previous week, and the theoretical demand for alumina increased slightly [4]. - Inventory: The alumina futures warrant inventory on Friday was 171,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons during the week; the factory warehouse inventory was 0 tons, unchanged [4]. Market Outlook - Ore end: The supply of domestic and imported ores has remained sufficient recently. A large mine in Guinea has lowered its long - term contract price for the first quarter, and there is downward pressure on ore prices in the future [2][6]. - Supply end: Some alumina plants have started maintenance, and enterprises in many places have reduced their operating capacities to varying degrees, but the overall reduction is limited, and the supply is still relatively loose [2][6]. - Consumption end: The consumption is mainly based on the implementation of long - term contracts as needed, with little change [2][6]. - Inventory: The alumina warrant inventory is 171,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons during the week [2][6]. Industry News - On January 27, 2026, workers at a Chinese - owned mining company in the Boké region of Guinea's bauxite mining area launched an indefinite strike. However, the port inventory of bauxite in this mining area is sufficient, and the current strike has little impact on the overall shipment in Guinea [7]. - The European aluminum industry is facing difficulties. Due to the successive closures of smelters, China's export controls on key minerals, and the implementation of the EU's carbon border adjustment tax, the region is facing a serious aluminum supply problem [7].

Group 1 - Recent alumina futures prices have rebounded after falling to last December's low, with a significant increase of 3.27% in the main contract [1] - China's bauxite imports reached 146.7 million tons in December 2025, with a total annual import of 201 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.72% [1] - Guinea's bauxite production has resumed after a suspension, with the first batch expected to be shipped in January, providing crucial support for future bauxite supply [1] Group 2 - Domestic bauxite prices have remained stable, with prices in various regions reported as follows: Shanxi at 570-600 RMB/ton, Henan at 530-570 RMB/ton, Guizhou at 400-450 RMB/ton, and Guangxi at 320-335 RMB/ton [2] - The market experienced unexpected results with two bauxite exploration rights in Shanxi failing to sell, despite the province's successful transactions totaling over 20 billion RMB in 2025 [2] Group 3 - Domestic alumina plants are undergoing frequent maintenance due to operational pressures and pollution concerns, but the impact on production is limited [3] - As of January 22, the total production capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina is 110.32 million tons/year, with an operating capacity of 87.12 million tons/year, resulting in a utilization rate of 79.97% [3] - The industry is currently facing losses, with an average weekly cost of 2,897 RMB/ton and an average weekly profit of -246 RMB/ton, although the situation has improved compared to the peak losses in April and May 2025 [3]