周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 顺达筹备复产事宜， 氧化铝供应总体稳定 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 氧化铝：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Table_Summary] ★顺达筹备复产事宜，氧化铝供应总体稳定 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。大阅兵活动影响，北方部分地区车 辆运输受限，矿石价格因此受到支撑。南方延续受季节性制约， 防城港、钦州矿石发运效率放缓，供应量下滑支撑，价格同样稳 定运行。进口方面，几内亚 45/3 品位资源报价仍于 CIF 75 美元 /吨左右。几内亚矿山停产和雨季对现货市场带来的影响逐渐显 现。几内亚方面有意将 GIC 地块收回，区域内中水电及高顶两 家承包方短时间复产无望。顺达方面因拥有规范的运营与税务记 录，已开始筹备复产事宜。期内新到矿石 405.4 万吨，其中新到 几内亚资源 324.1 万吨，澳大利亚资源 76.8 万吨。几内亚至中国 的 Cape 船运 ...

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 铝：重心温和下移，考验20200-20300一线附近平台支撑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年08月03日 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 上周我们提到沪铝主力合约在接近21000关口附近位置，再次突破未果后，逐渐呈现出触顶回落的温和迹象，且自上周五 夜盘至今，此前"反内卷"受益品种已经集体跌落，伴随7月底政治局会议信号释放，此波国内宏观情绪的拐点或已确认， 这也带了传统有色金属的溢价挤出，只是幅度相对温和，毕竟此前推涨相比焦煤、多晶硅等品种也有限。 ◆ 我们仍维持近期看法：倾向于看铝价在8、9月有一定溢价空间的挤出，但是回调的深度不深，核心还是基于此波累库的 高度并不看高。8月底及9月是否可能呈现旺季不旺，则取决于前期出口需求的前置，是否导致传统下半年的出口订单成 色不足，因海外还在消化此前的库存。线性逻 ...

今年上半年，氧化铝价格呈现高位回落行情。今年1月初，氧化铝价格还在5000元（每吨，下同）上 方，至4月上旬，一度下跌至3000元以下，跌幅超过40%。 受益于氧化铝价格的回落，下游电解铝企业盈利普遍向好。其中，云铝股份预计上半年盈利27亿元至28 亿元，同比增长7.19%至11.16%。公司表示，电解铝生产线满负荷生产，抓住铝价上涨的市场机遇，同 时，受益于原材料价格回落，公司二季度经营业绩环比实现大幅增长。焦作万方上半年预盈5亿元至 5.60亿元，同比增长39.09%至55.78%；中孚实业上半年预盈6.8亿元至7.2亿元，同比增加53.35%至 62.37%。两家公司均表示，电解铝业务受成本下降及销售价格上涨影响，利润同比实现增长。 对于氧化铝价格未来走势，陆俊杰认为，随着未来供应逐渐增加，价格理性回归概率较大。一德期货认 为，短期来看，政策预期较强，加之低仓单、流通货源偏紧等因素，市场情绪火热，氧化铝价格或偏强 运行，但中期来看，基本面情况限制上行空间。 从盈利水平来看，据一德期货测算，目前氧化铝的加权完全成本在2842元/吨，理论利润约340元/吨， 以主力合约来衡量，全行业处于盈利水平。随着时间的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has shifted from a strong upward trend to a phase of oscillation and correction, with the main contract AO2509 declining from a recent high of 3238 yuan/ton on July 10 to a low of 3055 yuan/ton on July 17, indicating a downward price adjustment [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The initial price increase was driven by factors such as stable spot prices and macroeconomic policies, including expectations of domestic "anti-involution" policies and speculation about supply-side reforms in aluminum oxide [2] - The current supply-demand structure is evolving from a tight balance to a structural surplus, with operating capacity recovering to high levels and weekly production maintaining historical highs [3] - Despite some tightness in the spot market due to high execution rates of long-term contracts in certain regions, the overall supply of aluminum oxide remains loose [3] Group 2: Production and Profitability - The average daily production of aluminum oxide has exceeded 250,000 tons, with profits for aluminum oxide enterprises generally above 200 yuan/ton, and low-cost producers achieving profits over 600 yuan/ton [4] - The improvement in profitability has stimulated the resumption of previously idled production capacity [4] - The average complete cost of aluminum oxide is gradually decreasing as domestic ore prices stabilize and import ore prices show slight weakness [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Key variables to watch in the aluminum oxide market include the pace of new capacity releases, the recovery of bauxite supply from Guinea, and potential production cuts or inventory reductions in response to macroeconomic uncertainties [4] - Short-term tightness in spot supply may support aluminum oxide prices, but if new capacity is released as planned in the second half of the year, prices may face downward pressure due to anticipated oversupply [5]

氧化铝周报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 关注库存变化 氧化铝偏好震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端近期进口和国产矿表现都相对较稳，几内亚 雨季影响尚在继续，但由于传导至中国港口方面 尚需一定时间周期，近期中国进口矿到港情况暂 无过多变化。供应端氧化铝供应较前期有所增多。 上周部分提产的企业产量增量陆续体现，氧化铝 供应有所增多。但多数企业以执行长单为主，加之 部分企业焙烧炉阶段性检修导致提货困难，局部 地区氧化铝现货仍旧偏紧，氧化铝开工产能9320 万吨，开工率为81.18%。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The news about Guinea's mines still has uncertainties, and the unstable raw material supply is expected to support the alumina price to remain strong. However, after the significant increase in the alumina price, the profit margin has recovered, and the production willingness of enterprises has increased. There may be复产 in the future, so the production changes of alumina enterprises need to be closely monitored. The short - term supply - demand situation of alumina is tight, and the price remains favorable, but the increase may be limited [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From May 16th to May 23rd, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2890 yuan/ton to 3169 yuan/ton, an increase of 279 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot rose from 2991 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, an increase of 229 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased from 46 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB remained at 370 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased from - 338.93 yuan/ton to - 91.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 247.5 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 197,535 tons to 156,999 tons, a decrease of 40,536 tons; the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons; the prices of domestic bauxite in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou remained stable, while the Guinea CIF increased from 70 US dollars/ton to 72 US dollars/ton [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 9.96% last week, closing at 3169 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3220 yuan/ton on Friday, up 229 yuan/ton from last week. The spot circulation volume of domestic bauxite is limited, and the alumina enterprises have no plan to adjust the ore purchase price this week. The price continues to run stably. For imported bauxite, the future development of the affected mining areas in Guinea is still unclear, and it is necessary to further monitor whether the subsequent development of this event will worsen the bauxite supply situation. In the short term, the price of imported bauxite is clearly supported by positive factors, and the price center may rise. On the supply side, alumina enterprises are both reducing and increasing production. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are reducing production, while some previously overhauled enterprises have ended their overhauls, and new northern production capacities are releasing output. The operating production capacity of alumina has slightly increased, the supply change is limited, and the spot is still in a short - term tight situation. As of May 22nd, China's alumina production capacity was 112.2 million tons, the operating production capacity was 86.35 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.96%. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong is continuing to transfer to Yunnan. In addition, the production capacity in Guangxi and Sichuan is being restored. Overall, the operating production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has continued to increase this week, and the demand for alumina has slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 130,658 tons to 157,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons [4] Market Outlook - Last week, the mining end in Guinea experienced a process of escalating and then easing disturbances. At the beginning of the week, the Guinea government designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserve areas, making the resumption of production in the suspended mining areas in Guinea more uncertain. Near the weekend, there was news that the mine owners whose bauxite mining licenses were revoked in Guinea could resume production by paying the local development contribution or participating in the re - bidding. On the supply side, alumina enterprises both reduced and increased production last week. Some alumina plants in Shanxi reduced production, while some previously overhauled enterprises released output after resuming production. The theoretical operating production capacity increased slightly compared with the previous week. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was basically stable, and there was still a slight gap in the theoretical production capacity matching last week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease by 130,658 tons to 157,000 tons last week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons. Overall, the news about Guinea's mines still has uncertainties, and the unstable raw material supply is expected to support the alumina price to remain strong. However, after the significant increase in the alumina price, the profit margin has recovered, and the production willingness of enterprises has increased. There may be复产 in the future, so the production changes of alumina enterprises need to be closely monitored. The short - term supply - demand situation of alumina is tight, and the price remains favorable, but the increase may be limited [6] Industry News - The issue of the Guinea government revoking the mining licenses of some mines has further escalated. On the evening of Tuesday, May 20, 2025, the transitional authorities read out a decree on national television, deciding to classify multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas, including concessions, industrial and semi - industrial mining licenses, and exploration licenses for bauxite, iron, gold, diamonds, and graphite. In the first quarter of this year, the characteristic industries in Bozhou District, Zunyi City showed new vitality. The electrolytic aluminum output exceeded 100,000 tons, and the output value of the bauxite industrial chain increased. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in April 2025, China's alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%; the cumulative output from January to April was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. In April, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the cumulative output from January to April was 14.793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In April, the aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; the cumulative output from January to April was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In April, the aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%; the cumulative output from January to April was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [7] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina current - continuous one inter - period spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][10][11][12]

几内亚Axis矿区停产消息继续支撑氧化铝价格，国内氧化铝主力合约早盘震荡小幅上行，领涨期市，收 涨1.55%，报收3138元/吨。 几内亚仍为我国铝土矿最大进口来源国，且进口量仍在持续增长。海关总署数据显示，2025年1-4月， 中国累计进口铝土矿6777万吨，同比增加34.3%。分国别看，自几内亚累计进口铝土矿5312万吨，占进 口总量的78.38%，同比增加42.2%。由于我国铝土矿进口依存度高且高度依赖几内亚的铝土矿供应，因 此当几内亚矿端出现扰动时，氧化铝价格将会出现剧烈反应。 具体来看，据媒体报道，几内亚政府宣布已经收回了51份矿业许可。据Mysteel调研核实，"几内亚Axis 矿区被列入政府撤销采矿许可证名单，勒令在运行矿山的采矿设备暂停，开采被迫全部中止。该矿区涉 及产能约4000万吨/年，恢复时间不明"。该矿区2024年产量约2300万吨，其中顺达矿业约1300万吨，中 电十一局约1000万吨。据悉，相关企业正在与几内亚政府进行商谈，具体影响有待评估。此消息引发市 场对铝土矿原料供应担忧。Mysteel表示，几内亚某其他大型铝土矿矿山的探矿权证也被政府列入了撤 销名单，此举是标志着政府整改范 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for alumina opened slightly lower but remained stable above the 3000 mark, with a significant increase observed in the previous night session [2] - Guinea's government has revoked mining licenses for 46 companies, signaling a warning to large mining operators, although these companies are not major producers in Guinea's mining sector [2][3] - The Axis mining area has been ordered to halt operations, affecting an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons, with the recovery timeline currently unknown [3] Group 2 - Guinea exported approximately 146.4 million tons of bauxite last year, with expectations to exceed 200 million tons this year, representing a 35% increase from the previous record [3] - Domestic alumina production is expected to increase to 86.96 million tons in May, with a production volume of 7.35 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.5% and a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [4] - The alumina operating rate has decreased by 2.66% to 77.02%, with maintenance activities reported in several regions [4] Group 3 - Recent data indicates a weekly decrease in alumina inventory by 36,900 tons, while social inventory has increased slightly [5] - Analysts suggest that the recent revocation of mining licenses and production cuts may lead to a potential upward trend in alumina prices, despite the risk of oversupply due to increased imports [6][7] - The market is expected to maintain a strong price trend for alumina in the short term, with prices projected to range between 2850 and 3050 yuan per ton [7][8]

氧化铝价格走势研判 20250517 从三月底全行业开工水平 9,360 万吨，到目前 8,650 万吨区间，这一变化主要 源于多方面因素。三月份初期山西奥凯达铝业和森泽铝业因高价矿或自采矿不 足开始点式减产，但大型集团未有新进展。3 月下旬信发减少进口矿使用比例， 自主调整产能；4 月下旬国有集团企业在山西和河南两大四小工厂减产；5 月 第一周山西、山东和云南工厂受波及，全行业出现较大动荡。这些因素导致国 有集团企业在现货市场上购买紧张程度爆发，从而形成当前供应偏紧状态。 氧化铝生产成本上升的原因是什么？ 摘要 • 氧化铝行业经历供应过剩到偏紧的转变，主要由于 3 月底至 5 月初期间， 山西奥凯达、森泽铝业及信发等企业陆续减产，国有集团企业也调动产能， 导致现货市场供应紧张，全行业开工水平从 9,360 万吨降至 8,650 万吨。 • 氧化铝生产成本持续上升，主要受矿石结构成本波动影响。国产矿供应紧 张导致进口矿使用增加，矿石价格从 1,460 元上涨至近 2000 元。各区域 成本差异显著，云南成本最低，广西成本较高，使用进口矿的企业成本与 山东沿海地区接近。 • 几内亚铝土矿价格下降至 70 美元/ ...