研究报告 铝周报 电解铝产能小幅下降，沪铝或震荡偏强运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 摘要： 【基本面分析】 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 国家统计局数据显示，10 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实 际增长 4.9%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从 环比看，10 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.17%。1—10 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%。CME"美联储观察" 数据显示，目前美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 50.7%，维 持利率不变的概率为 49.3%。氧化铝在产产能小幅下降，氧化铝 总产能维持高位。电解铝企业开工率小幅下降，电解铝在产产能 出现下降。沪铝库存小幅上升，库存水平处于近年来低位。LME 铝库存逐步增长。 【后市展望】 铝价或以震荡偏强趋势为主。套利机会有限。期权合约建议 观望为主。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期，经 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market is in a relatively stable supply - demand stage, with the main contract showing a weak - oscillating trend. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and improving demand, with overseas interest - rate cut expectations driving the price up. It is advised to conduct light - position short - long trades at low prices [2]. - The casting aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and recovering demand. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - long trades at low prices [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,785 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main - contract position was 250,178 lots, up 112,657 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 5,839 lots, up 404 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.73, up 0.02; the Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipt was 74,465 tons, down 1,269 tons [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,931 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 13 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the main - contract position was 306,866 lots, down 18,943 lots [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract was 20,320 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was 80 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the main - contract position was 10,134 lots, down 20 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,950 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium/discount was - 20 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,960 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was 29 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The basis of casting aluminum alloy was 630 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The national alumina production was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45%; the demand from the electrolytic aluminum part was 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons; the export volume was 18 million tons, down 5 million tons; the import volume was 12.59 million tons, up 2.47 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 16,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import volume of aluminum scrap was 160,494.61 tons, up 4,900.05 tons; the export volume was 79.39 tons, up 15.06 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume of primary aluminum was 248,198.71 tons, up 55,884.22 tons; the export volume was 40,987.71 tons, up 21,416.99 tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 98.11 million tons, up 0.33 million tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 58.60 million tons, up 1.60 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The production was 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.49 million tons, down 0.09 million tons; the total built - in capacity was 126.00 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The automobile production was 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 7.02%, up 0.40%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.36%, up 0.18%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 10.59%, down 0.0053; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.12, down 0.0375 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expected another rate cut in October [2]. - China will implement a series of policies to expand service consumption, including pilot projects in 50 cities and over 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities with over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies [2]. - In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8% [2].