Group 1: Aluminum Market Overview - The recent rebound in Shanghai aluminum prices has seen the main contract reach a peak of 20,750 yuan/ton, supported by low domestic aluminum inventory, but the seasonal decline in downstream consumption limits further price increases [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains high, with a cumulative output of 21.6948 million tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.42% [5] - As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was approximately 45.69 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 43.83 million tons [5] Group 2: Import and Export Dynamics - Since 2020, China's primary aluminum imports have shown strong growth, with 213.6 thousand tons imported in 2024, accounting for about 4.63% of domestic supply [7] - In May, China imported 22.32 thousand tons of primary aluminum, a month-on-month decrease of 10.9% but a year-on-year increase of 41.4% [7] - The net import of primary aluminum in May was 190.7 thousand tons, a month-on-month decrease of 19.5% and a year-on-year increase of 26.3% [8] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum in June was 17,076.84 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 310 yuan/ton [12] - As of July 7, the instantaneous cost of electrolytic aluminum was approximately 16,477.84 yuan/ton, down 743.29 yuan/ton from early June [12] - The average profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry in June was 3,456.66 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 97.22 yuan/ton [12] Group 4: Industry Challenges - The aluminum processing industry faced significant pressure in June, with the PMI composite index dropping to 40.1%, indicating weak demand during the consumption off-season [16] - The overall aluminum ingot inventory increased to 47.8 thousand tons by July 7, reflecting a shift towards inventory accumulation as consumption remains subdued [11] - The high aluminum prices are suppressing consumption, leading to a decrease in new orders and a reduction in operating rates across various sectors [20]

2025 年 6 月 30 日 美指连续回落 铝价偏好 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 ⚫ 上周伊以冲突缓和，市场避险情绪回落。美国一季度 GDP下修幅度高于预期，美联储官员发言鹰派，降息 预期推后，美指连续回落，利好金属普涨。基本面， 国内电解铝运行产能持稳，但下游消费转弱，铸锭量 有所回升，国内社会库存去库幅度明显放缓。电解铝 锭库存46.3万吨，环比减少0.1万吨；国内主流 ...