Group 1: Aluminum Market Overview - The recent rebound in Shanghai aluminum prices has seen the main contract reach a peak of 20,750 yuan/ton, supported by low domestic aluminum inventory, but the seasonal decline in downstream consumption limits further price increases [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains high, with a cumulative output of 21.6948 million tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.42% [5] - As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was approximately 45.69 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 43.83 million tons [5] Group 2: Import and Export Dynamics - Since 2020, China's primary aluminum imports have shown strong growth, with 213.6 thousand tons imported in 2024, accounting for about 4.63% of domestic supply [7] - In May, China imported 22.32 thousand tons of primary aluminum, a month-on-month decrease of 10.9% but a year-on-year increase of 41.4% [7] - The net import of primary aluminum in May was 190.7 thousand tons, a month-on-month decrease of 19.5% and a year-on-year increase of 26.3% [8] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum in June was 17,076.84 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 310 yuan/ton [12] - As of July 7, the instantaneous cost of electrolytic aluminum was approximately 16,477.84 yuan/ton, down 743.29 yuan/ton from early June [12] - The average profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry in June was 3,456.66 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 97.22 yuan/ton [12] Group 4: Industry Challenges - The aluminum processing industry faced significant pressure in June, with the PMI composite index dropping to 40.1%, indicating weak demand during the consumption off-season [16] - The overall aluminum ingot inventory increased to 47.8 thousand tons by July 7, reflecting a shift towards inventory accumulation as consumption remains subdued [11] - The high aluminum prices are suppressing consumption, leading to a decrease in new orders and a reduction in operating rates across various sectors [20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Short - term macro risk sentiment improves, lifting the center of aluminum prices. This week, there are important US data such as non - farm payrolls, and the Fed's attitude is still highly variable. There are also uncertainties like Trump's tariff policy changes, so the macro situation is unlikely to have a trend - forming impact. Fundamentally, the casting volume of aluminum ingots increases, consumption enters the off - season, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to reach an inflection point soon, the upside space of aluminum prices is limited, and the futures inter - month spread may converge [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price rose from 2561.5 to 2595 yuan/ton, SHFE aluminum continuous third contract rose from 20170 to 20380 dollars/ton. The LME spot premium decreased from 11.16 to 0.22 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 2350 tons to 345200 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 16739 tons to 34390 tons. The Yangtze River spot average price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 20646 yuan/ton, and the South Storage spot average price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 20530 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased by 131.6 yuan/ton to 16833.67 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased by 435.6 yuan/ton to 3892.34 yuan/ton [3] 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot was 20646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of South Storage spot was 20530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week. Macroscopically, Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire. The Fed is in a favorable position and can wait patiently. The US Q1 real GDP final value decreased by 0.5% annually and quarterly, higher than the expected 0.2%. The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000. The preliminary value of US durable goods orders in May increased by 16.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since July 2014 [4] 3. Market Outlook - The short - term macro risk sentiment improves the center of aluminum prices. With important US data this week and uncertainties like Trump's tariff policy, the macro situation can't form a trend. Fundamentally, the casting volume of aluminum ingots rises, consumption enters the off - season, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to turn, the upside of aluminum prices is limited, and the futures inter - month spread may converge [7] 4. Industry News - Chongqing Qichuang Renewable Resources Utilization Co., Ltd. plans to build a 200,000 - ton recycled aluminum resources recycling industrialization project, which is in the pre - approval publicity stage of environmental impact assessment public participation. In May 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy was about 97,000 tons, a 11.75% month - on - month increase and a 12.14% year - on - year decrease. The export volume was about 24,200 tons [8] 5. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous third price trend, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum inter - month spread, etc., which are used to show the price trends, spreads, and seasonal changes of aluminum - related products [9][10][16][17]