1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum slightly declining throughout the week, and the spot market showing marginal improvement. Looking ahead, the marginal deterioration of the trade situation will suppress market sentiment, while the high probability of interest rate cuts provides emotional support. From an industrial perspective, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with limited marginal increase in supply. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises has increased, and the continuous rise in the processing fee of aluminum rods is conducive to the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory, providing strong support for the downside of aluminum prices. This week, the operating range reference for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is 20,500 - 20,900 yuan/ton; the operating range reference for LME Aluminum 3M is 2,610 - 2,700 US dollars/ton [12][13] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: As of the end of August, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects, and the output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly. This week, the proportion of molten aluminum of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises rose to 76.4% [12] - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from last week; the bonded area inventory was 89,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 130,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 518,000 tons, a week - on - week increase, and it was at a low level in the same period of previous years. The spot premium of domestic East China aluminum ingots over futures was 5 yuan/ton, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 4.7 US dollars/ton [12] - **Imports and Exports**: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%, remaining at a relatively high level this year. This week, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports narrowed month - on - month [12] - **Demand Side**: According to SMM research, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.8% to 63.0% compared with last week. The operating rate of the aluminum plate and strip sample enterprises increased by 0.8% to 69.0% this week, the aluminum cable and wire increased by 1.8% to 67%, the aluminum profile operating rate remained flat at 54.6%, and the aluminum foil operating rate increased by 0.7% to 72.6% [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Shanghai Aluminum fell 0.05% to 20,745 yuan/ton this week (as of Friday afternoon's close); LME Aluminum fell 1.08% to 2,649 US dollars/ton [23] - **Term Spread**: The spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was at par [28] - **Spot Basis**: The East China and Central China regions turned to premiums, while the discount in the South China region widened. The Central China spot strengthened relatively [34][35] - **LME Premium and Discount**: LME Aluminum Cash/3M turned to a discount [42] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The smelting profit of primary aluminum increased compared with last week and was at a historical high [45] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: According to MYSTELL data, the inventory on Thursday was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from Monday and 22,000 tons from last Thursday, indicating inventory reduction. According to SMM statistics, the bonded area inventory this week was 89,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [50] - **Aluminum Rod Inventory**: According to MYSTELL data, the total inventory of aluminum rods on Thursday was 130,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from Monday and 14,000 tons from last Thursday [55] - **LME Inventory**: The global LME aluminum inventory was 518,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, still at a low level in the same period of previous years. In August, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased, significantly squeezing and exceeding the proportion of Russian aluminum [60][64] 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite price in Henan, China, decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared with last week [71] - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the import price decreased by 2 US dollars/ton [74] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price increased slightly compared with last week [76] 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In August, the monthly output of alumina was 7.738 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons compared with July, a year - on - year increase of 7.16% [83] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of August, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects, and the output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly [86] - **Molten Aluminum Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee continued to rise this week. The domestic molten aluminum ratio increased by 1.3% in August, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 10.4% year - on - year and 4.68% month - on - month to about 931,000 tons. This week, the proportion of molten aluminum of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises rose to 76.4% [89] - **Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The output of each province in August was basically the same as that in July, among which Shandong's output decreased by 18,700 tons and Yunnan's increased by 28,000 tons [94] 3.6 Demand Side - **Aluminum Product Output**: In August, China's aluminum product output was 5.548 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; the cumulative output from January to August was 43.79 million tons, flat year - on - year. As of September 22, the daily outbound volume of aluminum ingots was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase [98] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In August, the operating rate of aluminum profiles declined month - on - month, the operating rate of aluminum plates, strips and foils rebounded, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots continued to decline month - on - month, the operating rate of aluminum rods rebounded month - on - month, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was weak. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys narrowed by 45 yuan/ton to 278 yuan/ton [105][108][111] - **Terminal Demand**: The production schedules of the three major white - goods released by Industry Online show that in October 2025, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 11.53 million units, a decrease of 18.0% compared with the actual output in the same period last year, with the decline widening; the production schedule of refrigerators was 8.63 million units, a decrease of 5.8% compared with the actual output in the same period last year, with the decline slightly narrowing; the production schedule of washing machines was 9.08 million units, a slight decrease of 1.6% compared with the actual output in the same period last year. The current real estate data is also weak, the automobile production and sales are acceptable, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules in September is expected to rebound slightly [115] 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Primary Aluminum Imports**: In August 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 217,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.3%, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. The cumulative imports from January to August were 1.714 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. Recently, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports has narrowed [120] - **Aluminum Ingot Import Source**: In July, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, Malaysia, etc. Among them, the import volume from Russia was 190,800 tons, accounting for 77% [124] - **Aluminum Product Exports**: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the cumulative exports from January to August were 4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [127] - **Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In August 2025, China's recycled aluminum imports were 173,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 25.3%. The imports from January to August were 1.345 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [127] - **Bauxite Imports**: In August 2025, China's bauxite imports were 18.289 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 75.70%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to August were 141.49 million tons [130] - **Alumina Exports**: In August 2025, China's alumina exports were 181,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.3%, a year - on - year increase of 26.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to August were 1.753 million tons [130]

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 360,000 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 38.2%, with an import value of $1.016 billion, up 39.2% compared to the previous year [1] - Conversely, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled 540,000 tons in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.6%, with an export value of $1.837 billion, down 6% year-on-year [1] Import Data - The import quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July 2025 was 360,000 tons [1] - The import value for the same period was $1.016 billion [1] - The year-on-year growth rates for imports were 38.2% in quantity and 39.2% in value [1] Export Data - The export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July 2025 was 540,000 tons [1] - The export value for this period was $1.837 billion [1] - The year-on-year changes for exports showed a decline of 7.6% in quantity and 6% in value [1]

Core Insights - The total foreign trade import and export value of Zhenjiang reached 72.86 billion yuan in the first eight months of the year, marking a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - Exports amounted to 56.01 billion yuan, increasing by 5.6%, while imports were 16.85 billion yuan, up by 4.4% [1] - In August alone, the total import and export value was 9.57 billion yuan, showing a robust year-on-year growth of 10.5% [1] Trade Structure - General trade continued to dominate, accounting for 56.57 billion yuan in imports and exports, a growth of 8%, and representing 77.6% of the total trade, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous year [1] - Processing trade contributed 14.87 billion yuan, growing by 4.1%, and made up 20.4% of the total [1] Market Diversification - The implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative has led to a 3% increase in trade with countries involved, totaling 37.59 billion yuan, which constitutes 51.6% of the total trade [1] - Trade with the European Union reached 13.8 billion yuan, growing by 10.7%, while trade with ASEAN was 13.05 billion yuan, showing a minimal growth of 0.02% [1] - Trade with Latin America surged by 17.5% to 6.95 billion yuan, making it the third-largest trading partner, surpassing the United States [1] - Trade with the UAE and five Central Asian countries saw significant increases of 16% and 483.3%, respectively [1] Foreign Trade Entities - Private enterprises demonstrated strong growth, with imports and exports totaling 42.62 billion yuan, a 6.7% increase, accounting for 58.5% of the total [2] - Foreign-invested enterprises had imports and exports of 26.32 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%, while state-owned enterprises reported 3.92 billion yuan, up by 1.6% [2] - The number of foreign trade enterprises with performance records reached 3,480, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [2] - The top 100 foreign trade enterprises accounted for 67.4% of the total trade, contributing 4.5 percentage points to overall growth [2] Export Performance - Exports of electromechanical products were robust, totaling 33.21 billion yuan, a growth of 9.7%, making up 59.3% of total exports [2] - Notable exports included glasses and parts at 3.57 billion yuan (up 4.9%) and auto parts at 3.25 billion yuan (up 6.1%) [2] - Exports of agricultural machinery, ships, and automobiles saw dramatic increases of 2.9 times, 3.3 times, and 14.5 times, respectively, contributing significantly to export growth [2] - Exports of non-rolled aluminum and aluminum products reached 2.5 billion yuan, growing by 37.8% [2] Import Trends - The growth rate of major imported products showed signs of recovery, with imports of electromechanical products at 5.56 billion yuan, up 3.3%, an increase of 8.3 percentage points from the previous year [3] - Agricultural product imports reached 2.44 billion yuan, growing by 18.6%, accounting for 14.5% of total imports [3] - Notable increases included soybean imports at 1.48 billion yuan, up 90.6%, and significant growth in imports of pulp, plastic products, coal, and logs [3]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth in China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, with a 24.1% year-on-year increase in quantity and a 22.6% increase in import value as of June 2025 [1] - Conversely, the export figures for the same category show a decline, with a 19.8% decrease in quantity and an 18.1% decrease in export value [1] Import Data Summary - In June 2025, China imported 300,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, amounting to 859 million USD [1] - The year-on-year growth in import quantity and value indicates a strong demand for aluminum in the domestic market [1] Export Data Summary - In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, generating 1.667 billion USD [1] - The decline in both quantity and value of exports suggests potential challenges in international markets for Chinese aluminum products [1] Industry Context - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, providing comprehensive industry research reports and consulting services [1] - The firm emphasizes its expertise in market insights and tailored solutions to support investment decisions in the aluminum sector [1]

Group 1: Import Data - In July 2025, China's import volume of aluminum ore and its concentrates reached 20.06 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.20% [1] - From January to July 2025, the total import volume of aluminum ore and its concentrates was 123.26 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 33.7% [1][2] Group 2: Export Data - In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products amounted to 190,796 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.4% [1][2] - From January to July 2025, the total export volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 934,046 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.00% [1][2] - In July 2025, the export volume of alumina was 23,000 tons, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 56.40% [1][2] - From January to July 2025, the total export volume of alumina reached 157,000 tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 64.3% [1][2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Weak economic and employment data in the US increased market expectations of economic slowdown and Fed rate cuts, with the possibility of a September rate cut exceeding 90%. The proportion of molten aluminum decreased in July, leading to an increase in aluminum ingot supply. The consumption side has support from the new energy vehicle and power sectors but is also dragged down by issues such as the slowdown in photovoltaic growth, decline in household appliance consumption, and decrease in export growth. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2571.5 yuan/ton to 2615 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price rose from 20420 dollars/ton to 20610 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased by 0.1. LME aluminum inventory increased by 7775 tons to 470575 tons, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5059 tons to 43599 tons [4]. Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 20590 yuan/ton, and the Southern Reserve spot weekly average price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20596 yuan/ton. The US announced new tariff rates, and the initial jobless claims increased. The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate increased slightly, and inventories of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [5][6]. Market Outlook - Rising Fed rate - cut expectations support the macro - bullish atmosphere, but there are also risks of economic decline due to tariffs and market risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, aluminum ingot supply is expected to increase, and consumption is in the off - peak season. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][7]. Industry News - In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 54.2 tons, and from January to July, it was 346.2 tons, a 7.90% decrease year - on - year. In Q1 2025, the aluminum demand in the US and Canada decreased by 4.4% year - on - year. In July, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 25% year - on - year [8]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium/discount, and other relevant data [9][10].

Trade Overview - In the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [1] - In July alone, the total trade value was 3.91 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than June, achieving a new high for the year [1] Import Data Energy Imports - In July, China imported 47.204 million tons of crude oil, with a cumulative import of 326.568 million tons from January to July, up 2.8% year-on-year [2] - July's refined oil imports were 4.031 million tons, with a cumulative import of 23.391 million tons from January to July, down 16.6% year-on-year [2] - Natural gas imports in July totaled 10.632 million tons, with a cumulative import of 70.144 million tons from January to July, down 6.9% year-on-year [2] Mineral Imports - In July, iron ore and its concentrates imports were 104.623 million tons, with a cumulative import of 696.569 million tons from January to July, down 2.3% year-on-year [3] - Copper ore and its concentrates imports in July were 2.560 million tons, with a cumulative import of 17.314 million tons from January to July, up 8.0% year-on-year [3] Wood and Pulp Imports - In July, imports of logs and sawn timber reached 465.3 million cubic meters, with a cumulative import of 33.479 million cubic meters from January to July, down 12.3% year-on-year [4] - Pulp imports in July were 2.877 million tons, with a cumulative import of 21.455 million tons from January to July, up 6.5% year-on-year [4] Export Data - In July, steel exports were 9.836 million tons, with a cumulative export of 67.983 million tons from January to July, up 11.4% year-on-year [5] - Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July were 542,000 tons, with a cumulative export of 3.462 million tons from January to July, down 7.9% year-on-year [5] - Rare earth exports in July totaled 5,994.3 tons, with a cumulative export of 38,563.6 tons from January to July, up 13.3% year-on-year [5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices experienced a slight increase, closing at $9,684.5 per ton, up by $8.5 or 0.09% due to optimistic economic data [1] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up by $1.0 (0.04%), zinc up by $24.5 (0.88%), and lead up by $15.0 (0.75%) [2] - In contrast, three-month nickel prices fell by $17.0 (0.11%) [2] Group 2 - China's foreign trade maintained a positive trend, with July's total trade value reaching 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, marking the highest growth rate for the year [3] - For the first seven months, China's total trade value was 25.7 trillion yuan, up by 3.5% year-on-year, with an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - Copper ore and concentrate imports in July were 2.56 million tons, with a cumulative import of 17.314 million tons for the first seven months, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase [3] Group 3 - Following the announcement of a 50% tariff on certain copper products by the U.S. government, COMEX copper prices fell, contributing to a 1.4% decline in LME copper prices the previous week [4][5] - Analysts predict that LME copper prices may drop to $8,800 by the end of the third quarter due to a global market surplus, with a projected surplus of 27,200 tons in the refined copper market by May 2025 [5]

Group 1 - In May 2025, China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 350,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [1] - The import value for unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in May 2025 was $990 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [1] - In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled 550,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [1] - The export value for unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in May 2025 was $1.875 billion, which is a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January - May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 760,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with positive year - on - year growth from January to April. The good performance of net export data mainly stems from the Shanghai - London ratio limiting imports rather than outstanding export data [3][43]. - In 2024, direct exports to the US accounted for 3.7% of the total export volume. Assuming the extreme scenario of re - export trade, the US's indirect imports from China accounted for 7.8%. Thus, the US's maximum dependence on Chinese aluminum products could reach 11.5% [4][19][43]. - If the re - export trade of Chinese aluminum products to the US is completely restricted, based on 2025 data, direct exports to the US would decline by 1.8%, and the consumption of aluminum elements in China would only decline by 0.2% [5][24][43]. - Regarding the 24% tariff window on China, starting from May 14th, if goods arrive in the US and clear customs before August 11th, they can be exempted from the 24% tariff. Assuming the fastest clearance time of 15 days, China's rush to export can last until the end of July [5][40][45]. - There is no need to overly focus on the US's impact on China's consumption. Even with the pre - consumption caused by the rush to export, attention should be paid to the consumption resilience of other developed regions and the consumption growth of third - world countries [6][27][45]. - The pre - consumption caused by the rush to export may lead to a decline in later consumption, but the steepness of the decline may be less than expected. In the context of limited supply, as long as the year - on - year consumption of aluminum increases, the overall positive trend remains unchanged [6][45] Summary by Directory Export Data Analysis - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 760,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with positive year - on - year growth from January to April. This was mainly due to the decrease in net imports of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy affected by the Shanghai - London ratio. From January to May, the cumulative net exports of aluminum products were 2.12 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The cancellation of export tax rebates for Chinese aluminum products since November 2024 had a substantial impact on exports. However, the monthly decline in net exports of aluminum products in the first half of the year narrowed, which was related to the rush to export during the tariff window. Due to the additional tariffs imposed by the US on steel and aluminum imports, the actual export was more difficult, and the rush to export was mainly in the form of end - products [12]. US's Direct and Indirect Dependence on Chinese Aluminum Products - Using sample data from 2021 - 2024, which accounted for about 24% of the total export volume, it was estimated that in 2024, direct exports to the US accounted for 3.7% of the total export volume, and indirect imports from China accounted for 7.8% under the extreme re - export scenario, with a maximum dependence of 11.5%. If the US imposes tariffs globally, the impact on China's aluminum export consumption is limited under the condition that US consumption does not decline. The biggest impact comes from the re - inflation problem caused by tariffs. Chinese aluminum products can be compensated through re - export trade. From January to May 2025, China's total exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 1.67 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2% (130,000 tons), mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. The direct export to the US in 2024 was 61,000 tons, while from January to May 2025, it was only 11,000 tons, and the proportion of direct exports to the US dropped to 1.9%. The direct impact of tariffs on exports to the US was only 1.8%. Since the US import data for 2025 has not been released, the impact of re - export has not been evaluated [15][19]. - Based on the aluminum element calculation, in 2024, China's aluminum element supply was 55.75 million tons, and exports accounted for about 12% of China's aluminum consumption. If the US completely stops relying on Chinese aluminum products, the consumption of aluminum elements in China will decline by 1.4%. In reality, on the basis of stable US consumption, re - export trade is difficult to restrict, and US trade actions alone are unlikely to significantly impact China's aluminum consumption [20][24]. Attention to Third - World Consumption Growth after Tariff - Affected Rush to Export - According to customs data, from January to June, China's cumulative exports of automobiles (including chassis) reached 3.473 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 18.6%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative exports of automobiles from January to June were 3.078 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.3%. Both data sources show a monthly growth trend in exports, and the monthly exports of components also show a recovery trend [27]. - There is no need to overly focus on the US's impact on China's consumption. The export price of Yiwu small commodities remains high, and although the US price in the container shipping price index has dropped significantly, the comprehensive price index is still good. Therefore, attention should be paid to the consumption resilience of other developed regions and the consumption growth of third - world countries. From January to May, China's cumulative exports of wire and cable were 1.23 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to rise, showing a continuous growth trend in recent years. The rapid development of developing countries will drive the export and consumption of China's infrastructure products [27]. Rush - to - Export Time Point under US Tariff Window - Since January 20, 2025, when Trump officially took office as the US President, the tariff war began. With the implementation of tariff executive orders such as those related to fentanyl, the US imposed a maximum tariff of 145% on Chinese goods. After the Geneva negotiations on May 12th, 91% of the reciprocal tariffs were cancelled, and the 24% tariff on China was suspended for 90 days, reducing the tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US to 30%. However, for aluminum products, due to the US's consecutive increases in steel and aluminum tariffs, even after the Geneva talks, Chinese aluminum products still face a high tariff of 104% when exported to the US [40]. - Starting from May 14th, if goods arrive in the US and clear customs before August 11th, they can be exempted from the 24% tariff. Considering the fastest shipping time from China's coastal areas to the US West Coast (about 12 days) and the estimated fastest clearance time of 15 days, China's rush to export can last until the end of July [40]. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the export situation of Chinese aluminum products, the US's dependence on Chinese aluminum products, the impact of tariff policies, the rush - to - export time point, and the focus on consumption in other regions [43][45].