近一年中国未锻轧铝及铝材出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国铝材行业市场发展潜力及投资风险预测报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年9月中国未锻轧铝及铝材进口数量为36万吨，同比增长35.4%，进口金 额为10.2亿美元，同比增长37.8%，2025年9月中国未锻轧铝及铝材出口数量为52万吨，同比下降7.3%， 出口金额为18.15亿美元，同比下降1.4%。 近一年中国未锻轧铝及铝材进口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 ...

Group 1: Domestic Trade Data - In October, China's exports (in USD) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, down from an increase of 8.3% in the previous month, while imports rose by 1.0%, down from 7.4% [3][5] - The trade surplus for October was reported at $90.07 billion, slightly down from $90.447 billion in the previous month [3] - The contribution of major trading partners to export growth showed a decline for the EU, ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea, while the US's contribution increased [5] Group 2: Transportation and Industrial Indicators - The subway passenger volume index in first-tier cities showed a slight recovery, reporting 40.61 million trips, up from 40.55 million [12] - The industrial production index increased to 117 from 113, with specific sectors like methanol and tires showing recovery, while soda ash declined [14] Group 3: Domestic Policy Developments - Premier Li Qiang co-hosted the 30th regular meeting of Chinese and Russian Prime Ministers with Russian Prime Minister Mishustin, emphasizing the deepening of Sino-Russian friendship [16][17] - Li Qiang also met with Georgian Prime Minister Kobakhidze to discuss economic cooperation and the Belt and Road Initiative [17] Group 4: International Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a significant probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, with a 66.9% chance of this occurring [26] - The current economic conditions and geopolitical tensions are influencing the Fed's potential policy decisions [26] Group 5: Industry Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies are suggested to focus on three main areas: breakthroughs in AI technology, economic recovery leading to a "stronger stronger" market trend, and the resurgence of undervalued sectors [28] - The initial phase of the bull market favors high-growth sectors, while later phases may see a shift towards cyclical stocks with better performance as the economic fundamentals improve [28]

Core Insights - In October, China's copper ore and concentrate imports reached 2.451 million tons, with a cumulative import of 25.086 million tons from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - In contrast, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in October were 503,000 tons, with a cumulative export of 5.02 million tons from January to October, showing a year-on-year decline of 8.6% [1] Import Data - Copper ore and concentrate: October imports were 2.451 million tons valued at $6.957 billion; cumulative imports from January to October were 25.086 million tons valued at $67.064 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - Unwrought copper and copper products: October imports were 438,000 tons valued at $4.662 billion; cumulative imports from January to October were 4.456 million tons valued at $44.361 billion, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [1] Export Data - Unwrought aluminum and aluminum products: October exports were 503,000 tons valued at $1.758 billion; cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons valued at $17.383 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.6% [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth in China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, with a 12.9% year-on-year increase in quantity and a 16.9% increase in import value for August 2025 [1] - Conversely, the export figures for the same category show a decline, with a 10.2% decrease in quantity and a 6.5% decrease in export value for August 2025 [1] Import Data Summary - In August 2025, China imported 320,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, amounting to $916 million [1] - The year-on-year growth rates for imports indicate a strong demand for aluminum materials within the domestic market [1] Export Data Summary - In August 2025, China exported 530,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, generating $1.832 billion [1] - The decline in export figures suggests potential challenges in international markets or increased competition [1]

Core Insights - In April 2025, China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 370,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, with an import value of $1.02 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [1] - In the same month, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled 520,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while the export value was $1.822 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [1] Import Data Summary - April 2025 imports: 370,000 tons, down 3.8% year-on-year [1] - Import value: $1.02 billion, up 1.9% year-on-year [1] Export Data Summary - April 2025 exports: 520,000 tons, down 0.3% year-on-year [1] - Export value: $1.822 billion, up 7.1% year-on-year [1]

Core Insights - China's imports of aluminum ore and its concentrates reached 15.88 million tons in September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 38.3% [1] - From January to September 2025, the total imports of aluminum ore and its concentrates amounted to 15.73 million tons, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - In September 2025, China's alumina exports were recorded at 250,000 tons, which is an 82.2% increase year-on-year [1] - The total alumina exports from January to September 2025 reached 2 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 61.8% [1] Import Data Summary - Aluminum ore and concentrates: - September 2025: 1.588 million tons, 792.44 million RMB - January to September 2025: 15.731 million tons, 9.167 billion RMB - Year-on-year change: 38.3% (monthly), 32% (cumulative) [1] - Copper ore and concentrates: - September 2025: 259,000 tons, 5.215 billion RMB - January to September 2025: 2.263 million tons, 43.069 billion RMB - Year-on-year change: 6.4% (monthly), 19.9% (cumulative) [1] Export Data Summary - Alumina: - September 2025: 25,000 tons, 85.244 million RMB - January to September 2025: 200,000 tons, 753.867 million RMB - Year-on-year change: 82.2% (monthly), 61.8% (cumulative) [1] - Rare earths and their products: - September 2025: 10,538 tons, 256.961 million RMB - January to September 2025: 95,875 tons, 1.719 billion RMB - Year-on-year change: 7.6% (monthly), 3.1% (cumulative) [1]

Core Insights - In September, China's copper ore and concentrate imports reached 2.587 million tons, with a cumulative import of 22.634 million tons from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [1] - Conversely, the imports of unwrought copper and copper products in September were 485,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 4.019 million tons for the first nine months, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1] - Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September amounted to 521,000 tons, with a cumulative export of 4.516 million tons from January to September, indicating a decline of 8.1% year-on-year [1] Import Data - Copper ore and concentrate imports in September: 2.587 million tons, cumulative imports from January to September: 22.634 million tons, year-on-year increase: 7.7% [1] - Unwrought copper and copper products imports in September: 485,000 tons, cumulative imports from January to September: 4.019 million tons, year-on-year decrease: 1.7% [1] Export Data - Unwrought aluminum and aluminum products exports in September: 521,000 tons, cumulative exports from January to September: 4.516 million tons, year-on-year decrease: 8.1% [1]

Group 1: Rare Earth Imports - In September, China imported 6,864.7 tons of rare earths, an increase from 5,020.8 tons in August [1] - From January to September, total rare earth imports reached 78,898.4 tons [1] Group 2: Agricultural and Food Products - In September, China imported 1,287 tons of soybeans, a 4.8% increase from 1,228 tons in August [7] - Cumulative soybean imports from January to September were not specified but indicate a growing trend in agricultural imports [7] Group 3: Metal and Mineral Imports - In September, copper and copper products imports were 485,000 tons, up from 425,000 tons in August [4] - Iron ore and its concentrates imports in September were 11,632.6 tons, compared to 10,523 tons in August, with a total of 91,768.5 tons imported from January to September [8] - Copper ore and its concentrates imports totaled 2,263.4 tons from January to September, an increase from 2,102.4 tons in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Energy Imports - In September, crude oil imports were 4,725.2 tons, down from 4,949 tons in August, with a total of 42,299.7 tons imported from January to September [6] - Natural gas imports in September were 1,104.8 tons, a decrease from 1,185 tons in August, with cumulative imports of 9,285.9 tons from January to September [6] - Finished oil imports in September were 394.8 tons, up from 334 tons in August, with a total of 3,068 tons imported from January to September [5] Group 5: Export Data - In September, steel exports were 1,046.5 tons, an increase from 951 tons in August, with total exports of 8,795.5 tons from January to September [8] - Automobile exports (including chassis) in September were 756,000 units, slightly down from 763,000 units in August, with a total of 5,684,000 units exported from January to September [9] - Mobile phone exports in September reached 74.93 million units, up from 60.85 million units in August [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum slightly declining throughout the week, and the spot market showing marginal improvement. Looking ahead, the marginal deterioration of the trade situation will suppress market sentiment, while the high probability of interest rate cuts provides emotional support. From an industrial perspective, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with limited marginal increase in supply. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises has increased, and the continuous rise in the processing fee of aluminum rods is conducive to the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory, providing strong support for the downside of aluminum prices. This week, the operating range reference for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is 20,500 - 20,900 yuan/ton; the operating range reference for LME Aluminum 3M is 2,610 - 2,700 US dollars/ton [12][13] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: As of the end of August, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects, and the output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly. This week, the proportion of molten aluminum of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises rose to 76.4% [12] - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from last week; the bonded area inventory was 89,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 130,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 518,000 tons, a week - on - week increase, and it was at a low level in the same period of previous years. The spot premium of domestic East China aluminum ingots over futures was 5 yuan/ton, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 4.7 US dollars/ton [12] - **Imports and Exports**: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%, remaining at a relatively high level this year. This week, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports narrowed month - on - month [12] - **Demand Side**: According to SMM research, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.8% to 63.0% compared with last week. The operating rate of the aluminum plate and strip sample enterprises increased by 0.8% to 69.0% this week, the aluminum cable and wire increased by 1.8% to 67%, the aluminum profile operating rate remained flat at 54.6%, and the aluminum foil operating rate increased by 0.7% to 72.6% [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Shanghai Aluminum fell 0.05% to 20,745 yuan/ton this week (as of Friday afternoon's close); LME Aluminum fell 1.08% to 2,649 US dollars/ton [23] - **Term Spread**: The spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was at par [28] - **Spot Basis**: The East China and Central China regions turned to premiums, while the discount in the South China region widened. The Central China spot strengthened relatively [34][35] - **LME Premium and Discount**: LME Aluminum Cash/3M turned to a discount [42] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The smelting profit of primary aluminum increased compared with last week and was at a historical high [45] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: According to MYSTELL data, the inventory on Thursday was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from Monday and 22,000 tons from last Thursday, indicating inventory reduction. According to SMM statistics, the bonded area inventory this week was 89,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [50] - **Aluminum Rod Inventory**: According to MYSTELL data, the total inventory of aluminum rods on Thursday was 130,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from Monday and 14,000 tons from last Thursday [55] - **LME Inventory**: The global LME aluminum inventory was 518,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, still at a low level in the same period of previous years. In August, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased, significantly squeezing and exceeding the proportion of Russian aluminum [60][64] 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite price in Henan, China, decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared with last week [71] - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the import price decreased by 2 US dollars/ton [74] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price increased slightly compared with last week [76] 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In August, the monthly output of alumina was 7.738 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons compared with July, a year - on - year increase of 7.16% [83] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of August, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects, and the output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly [86] - **Molten Aluminum Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee continued to rise this week. The domestic molten aluminum ratio increased by 1.3% in August, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 10.4% year - on - year and 4.68% month - on - month to about 931,000 tons. This week, the proportion of molten aluminum of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises rose to 76.4% [89] - **Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The output of each province in August was basically the same as that in July, among which Shandong's output decreased by 18,700 tons and Yunnan's increased by 28,000 tons [94] 3.6 Demand Side - **Aluminum Product Output**: In August, China's aluminum product output was 5.548 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; the cumulative output from January to August was 43.79 million tons, flat year - on - year. As of September 22, the daily outbound volume of aluminum ingots was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase [98] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In August, the operating rate of aluminum profiles declined month - on - month, the operating rate of aluminum plates, strips and foils rebounded, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots continued to decline month - on - month, the operating rate of aluminum rods rebounded month - on - month, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was weak. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys narrowed by 45 yuan/ton to 278 yuan/ton [105][108][111] - **Terminal Demand**: The production schedules of the three major white - goods released by Industry Online show that in October 2025, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 11.53 million units, a decrease of 18.0% compared with the actual output in the same period last year, with the decline widening; the production schedule of refrigerators was 8.63 million units, a decrease of 5.8% compared with the actual output in the same period last year, with the decline slightly narrowing; the production schedule of washing machines was 9.08 million units, a slight decrease of 1.6% compared with the actual output in the same period last year. The current real estate data is also weak, the automobile production and sales are acceptable, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules in September is expected to rebound slightly [115] 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Primary Aluminum Imports**: In August 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 217,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.3%, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. The cumulative imports from January to August were 1.714 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. Recently, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports has narrowed [120] - **Aluminum Ingot Import Source**: In July, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, Malaysia, etc. Among them, the import volume from Russia was 190,800 tons, accounting for 77% [124] - **Aluminum Product Exports**: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the cumulative exports from January to August were 4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [127] - **Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In August 2025, China's recycled aluminum imports were 173,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 25.3%. The imports from January to August were 1.345 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [127] - **Bauxite Imports**: In August 2025, China's bauxite imports were 18.289 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 75.70%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to August were 141.49 million tons [130] - **Alumina Exports**: In August 2025, China's alumina exports were 181,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.3%, a year - on - year increase of 26.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to August were 1.753 million tons [130]

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 360,000 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 38.2%, with an import value of $1.016 billion, up 39.2% compared to the previous year [1] - Conversely, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled 540,000 tons in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.6%, with an export value of $1.837 billion, down 6% year-on-year [1] Import Data - The import quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July 2025 was 360,000 tons [1] - The import value for the same period was $1.016 billion [1] - The year-on-year growth rates for imports were 38.2% in quantity and 39.2% in value [1] Export Data - The export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July 2025 was 540,000 tons [1] - The export value for this period was $1.837 billion [1] - The year-on-year changes for exports showed a decline of 7.6% in quantity and 6% in value [1]