Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Weak economic and employment data in the US increased market expectations of economic slowdown and Fed rate cuts, with the possibility of a September rate cut exceeding 90%. The proportion of molten aluminum decreased in July, leading to an increase in aluminum ingot supply. The consumption side has support from the new energy vehicle and power sectors but is also dragged down by issues such as the slowdown in photovoltaic growth, decline in household appliance consumption, and decrease in export growth. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2571.5 yuan/ton to 2615 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price rose from 20420 dollars/ton to 20610 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased by 0.1. LME aluminum inventory increased by 7775 tons to 470575 tons, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5059 tons to 43599 tons [4]. Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 20590 yuan/ton, and the Southern Reserve spot weekly average price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20596 yuan/ton. The US announced new tariff rates, and the initial jobless claims increased. The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate increased slightly, and inventories of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [5][6]. Market Outlook - Rising Fed rate - cut expectations support the macro - bullish atmosphere, but there are also risks of economic decline due to tariffs and market risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, aluminum ingot supply is expected to increase, and consumption is in the off - peak season. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][7]. Industry News - In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 54.2 tons, and from January to July, it was 346.2 tons, a 7.90% decrease year - on - year. In Q1 2025, the aluminum demand in the US and Canada decreased by 4.4% year - on - year. In July, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 25% year - on - year [8]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium/discount, and other relevant data [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January - May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 760,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with positive year - on - year growth from January to April. The good performance of net export data mainly stems from the Shanghai - London ratio limiting imports rather than outstanding export data [3][43]. - In 2024, direct exports to the US accounted for 3.7% of the total export volume. Assuming the extreme scenario of re - export trade, the US's indirect imports from China accounted for 7.8%. Thus, the US's maximum dependence on Chinese aluminum products could reach 11.5% [4][19][43]. - If the re - export trade of Chinese aluminum products to the US is completely restricted, based on 2025 data, direct exports to the US would decline by 1.8%, and the consumption of aluminum elements in China would only decline by 0.2% [5][24][43]. - Regarding the 24% tariff window on China, starting from May 14th, if goods arrive in the US and clear customs before August 11th, they can be exempted from the 24% tariff. Assuming the fastest clearance time of 15 days, China's rush to export can last until the end of July [5][40][45]. - There is no need to overly focus on the US's impact on China's consumption. Even with the pre - consumption caused by the rush to export, attention should be paid to the consumption resilience of other developed regions and the consumption growth of third - world countries [6][27][45]. - The pre - consumption caused by the rush to export may lead to a decline in later consumption, but the steepness of the decline may be less than expected. In the context of limited supply, as long as the year - on - year consumption of aluminum increases, the overall positive trend remains unchanged [6][45] Summary by Directory Export Data Analysis - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 760,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with positive year - on - year growth from January to April. This was mainly due to the decrease in net imports of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy affected by the Shanghai - London ratio. From January to May, the cumulative net exports of aluminum products were 2.12 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The cancellation of export tax rebates for Chinese aluminum products since November 2024 had a substantial impact on exports. However, the monthly decline in net exports of aluminum products in the first half of the year narrowed, which was related to the rush to export during the tariff window. Due to the additional tariffs imposed by the US on steel and aluminum imports, the actual export was more difficult, and the rush to export was mainly in the form of end - products [12]. US's Direct and Indirect Dependence on Chinese Aluminum Products - Using sample data from 2021 - 2024, which accounted for about 24% of the total export volume, it was estimated that in 2024, direct exports to the US accounted for 3.7% of the total export volume, and indirect imports from China accounted for 7.8% under the extreme re - export scenario, with a maximum dependence of 11.5%. If the US imposes tariffs globally, the impact on China's aluminum export consumption is limited under the condition that US consumption does not decline. The biggest impact comes from the re - inflation problem caused by tariffs. Chinese aluminum products can be compensated through re - export trade. From January to May 2025, China's total exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 1.67 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2% (130,000 tons), mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. The direct export to the US in 2024 was 61,000 tons, while from January to May 2025, it was only 11,000 tons, and the proportion of direct exports to the US dropped to 1.9%. The direct impact of tariffs on exports to the US was only 1.8%. Since the US import data for 2025 has not been released, the impact of re - export has not been evaluated [15][19]. - Based on the aluminum element calculation, in 2024, China's aluminum element supply was 55.75 million tons, and exports accounted for about 12% of China's aluminum consumption. If the US completely stops relying on Chinese aluminum products, the consumption of aluminum elements in China will decline by 1.4%. In reality, on the basis of stable US consumption, re - export trade is difficult to restrict, and US trade actions alone are unlikely to significantly impact China's aluminum consumption [20][24]. Attention to Third - World Consumption Growth after Tariff - Affected Rush to Export - According to customs data, from January to June, China's cumulative exports of automobiles (including chassis) reached 3.473 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 18.6%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative exports of automobiles from January to June were 3.078 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.3%. Both data sources show a monthly growth trend in exports, and the monthly exports of components also show a recovery trend [27]. - There is no need to overly focus on the US's impact on China's consumption. The export price of Yiwu small commodities remains high, and although the US price in the container shipping price index has dropped significantly, the comprehensive price index is still good. Therefore, attention should be paid to the consumption resilience of other developed regions and the consumption growth of third - world countries. From January to May, China's cumulative exports of wire and cable were 1.23 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to rise, showing a continuous growth trend in recent years. The rapid development of developing countries will drive the export and consumption of China's infrastructure products [27]. Rush - to - Export Time Point under US Tariff Window - Since January 20, 2025, when Trump officially took office as the US President, the tariff war began. With the implementation of tariff executive orders such as those related to fentanyl, the US imposed a maximum tariff of 145% on Chinese goods. After the Geneva negotiations on May 12th, 91% of the reciprocal tariffs were cancelled, and the 24% tariff on China was suspended for 90 days, reducing the tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US to 30%. However, for aluminum products, due to the US's consecutive increases in steel and aluminum tariffs, even after the Geneva talks, Chinese aluminum products still face a high tariff of 104% when exported to the US [40]. - Starting from May 14th, if goods arrive in the US and clear customs before August 11th, they can be exempted from the 24% tariff. Considering the fastest shipping time from China's coastal areas to the US West Coast (about 12 days) and the estimated fastest clearance time of 15 days, China's rush to export can last until the end of July [40]. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the export situation of Chinese aluminum products, the US's dependence on Chinese aluminum products, the impact of tariff policies, the rush - to - export time point, and the focus on consumption in other regions [43][45].

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" towards emerging countries is nearing its end, while "export grabbing" towards the United States is beginning to take effect [2][7][55] Export Data Analysis - In June, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage point from May, driven by a shift in the main subjects of "export grabbing" [2][7][55] - Exports to emerging countries, particularly Latin America and India, continued to decline, while exports to the United States saw a significant rebound of 18.4% [2][5][55] - The increase in exports to the U.S. was primarily in consumer electronics and furniture, reflecting a resurgence in orders from the U.S. following negotiations in mid-May [2][13][55] Future Outlook - Exports are expected to maintain resilience in July due to continued "export grabbing" towards the U.S., but this may end in August, leading to potential negative impacts from demand exhaustion [3][25][26][56] - The necessity for "export grabbing" towards emerging countries is expected to decrease as the tariff suspension period ends [3][25][26] Regular Tracking of Exports and Imports - Consumer goods exports, including consumer electronics and real estate chain products, showed an upward trend in June [4][29][57] - Capital goods and intermediate goods exports exhibited mixed growth, with significant declines in some categories like shipbuilding and automotive parts, while fertilizers saw a notable increase [4][32][57] - Imports also rebounded in June, primarily driven by an increase in bulk commodity imports, indicating a recovery in domestic investment demand [5][44][58]

Core Insights - In June, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 489,000 tons, a decrease from 547,000 tons in May [1] Group 1 - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in June was 489,000 tons [1] - The export volume in May was 547,000 tons, indicating a month-over-month decline [1]

Group 1: Aluminum Market Overview - The recent rebound in Shanghai aluminum prices has seen the main contract reach a peak of 20,750 yuan/ton, supported by low domestic aluminum inventory, but the seasonal decline in downstream consumption limits further price increases [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains high, with a cumulative output of 21.6948 million tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.42% [5] - As of the end of June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was approximately 45.69 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 43.83 million tons [5] Group 2: Import and Export Dynamics - Since 2020, China's primary aluminum imports have shown strong growth, with 213.6 thousand tons imported in 2024, accounting for about 4.63% of domestic supply [7] - In May, China imported 22.32 thousand tons of primary aluminum, a month-on-month decrease of 10.9% but a year-on-year increase of 41.4% [7] - The net import of primary aluminum in May was 190.7 thousand tons, a month-on-month decrease of 19.5% and a year-on-year increase of 26.3% [8] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum in June was 17,076.84 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 310 yuan/ton [12] - As of July 7, the instantaneous cost of electrolytic aluminum was approximately 16,477.84 yuan/ton, down 743.29 yuan/ton from early June [12] - The average profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry in June was 3,456.66 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 97.22 yuan/ton [12] Group 4: Industry Challenges - The aluminum processing industry faced significant pressure in June, with the PMI composite index dropping to 40.1%, indicating weak demand during the consumption off-season [16] - The overall aluminum ingot inventory increased to 47.8 thousand tons by July 7, reflecting a shift towards inventory accumulation as consumption remains subdued [11] - The high aluminum prices are suppressing consumption, leading to a decrease in new orders and a reduction in operating rates across various sectors [20]

Group 1: Aluminum Exports and Imports - In May, China's alumina exports reached 210,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 104.6% [1] - From January to May, alumina exports totaled 1.17 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 79.3% [1] Group 2: Aluminum and Aluminum Products Imports - In May, imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products amounted to 350,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [1] - From January to May, unwrought aluminum and aluminum products imports totaled 1.67 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% [1] Group 3: Steel Imports - In May, steel imports were recorded at 480,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 24.5% [1] - From January to May, total steel imports reached 2.55 million tons, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 16.1% [1] Group 4: Bauxite and Its Concentrates Imports - In May, imports of bauxite and its concentrates were 17.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.4% [1] - From January to May, bauxite and its concentrates imports totaled 85.18 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting from emerging markets to the U.S. [3][51] - In May, exports fell year-on-year due to a decline in "export grabbing" and a high base effect from the previous year, with a decrease of 3.3 percentage points to 4.8% [3][51] - Exports to ASEAN and India showed significant declines, indicating a retreat from previous "export grabbing" trends in emerging economies [3][51] Export Analysis - The old clues of "export grabbing" through emerging countries are declining, with midstream manufacturing exports showing a marginal decrease and energy resource exports declining significantly [3][15] - In May, exports of midstream manufacturing and energy resources fell from 7.4% and 1.3% in April to 6.3% and -3.5%, respectively [3][15] - There are emerging signs of "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with specific products like toys and clothing showing recovery in export growth [4][19] Future Outlook - In June, the focus is expected to shift from "export grabbing" in emerging economies to the U.S., with overall export growth likely to receive some support [4][27] - Three indicators suggest continued "export grabbing": positive year-on-year growth in processing trade imports, a surge in container bookings from the U.S., and rising prices for small commodities from Yiwu [4][27] Import Analysis - In May, import growth fell by 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in bulk commodity imports [6][54] - Specific imports such as copper, crude oil, and iron ore showed significant declines, reflecting a notable drop in domestic investment demand, particularly in traditional infrastructure [6][54] - Mechanical and electrical product imports saw a slight recovery, increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 5.5% [6][54] Regional Export Trends - Exports to major economies showed a general decline, with exports to the U.S. dropping significantly [5][38] - Exports to non-U.S. developed countries, such as the UK and the EU, saw some recovery, while exports to emerging economies also declined [5][38] - Notably, exports to Africa increased, contrasting with declines in exports to Latin America and ASEAN [5][38]

Group 1: Agricultural Products - Soybean imports in April reached 608,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 2,319,000 tons for the first four months, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 29.1% and 14.6% respectively [1] - Edible vegetable oil imports totaled 480,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 2,203,000 tons, showing a decline of 2.5% in April and 11.8% year-on-year [1] - Cotton imports were 60,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 400,000 tons, indicating a significant drop of 82.2% in April and 71.1% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Minerals and Metals - Iron ore and its concentrates imports reached 10,314,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 38,836,000 tons, showing a slight increase of 1.5% in April but a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year [2] - Copper ore and its concentrates imports were 292,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 1,003,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and 7.8% respectively [2] - Aluminum ore and its concentrates imports totaled 2,068,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 6,770,000 tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 45.4% and 34.2% respectively [2] Group 3: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil imports reached 4,806,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 18,303,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a slight increase of 0.5% in April [2] - Finished oil imports were 357,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 1,292,000 tons, reflecting a significant decline of 32.9% in April and 25.6% year-on-year [2] - Natural gas imports totaled 1,096,000 tons in April, with a cumulative total of 6,683,000 tons, indicating a decrease of 5.6% in April and 9.2% year-on-year [2]

Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - In the first quarter, China's five-mineral chemical industry had a total import and export value of $452.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [1] - The main products in the industry saw mixed performance, with chemical products and mineral products exports increasing, while hardware and building materials exports declined [1] Group 2: Export Performance - Chemical product exports reached $74.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1] - Mineral product exports amounted to $46 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 22.1% [1] - Hardware and building materials exports were $54.4 billion, with a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [1] - Major export markets included the US, South Korea, Vietnam, and India, with exports to India increasing by 5.4% to $8.2 billion, while exports to the US, Vietnam, and South Korea decreased [1] Group 3: Import Performance - Hardware and building materials imports grew by 0.7% to $8.4 billion, while chemical and mineral product imports saw declines [2] - Chemical product imports were $144.5 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year [2] - Mineral product imports totaled $123.9 billion, reflecting a significant decrease of 20% [2] Group 4: Specific Product Insights - In the tire sector, China's new inflatable rubber tire exports reached 2.15 million tons, up 5.9%, with an export value of $5.3 billion, also up 5.7% [2] - Steel exports were 27.43 million tons, increasing by 6.3%, but the export value fell by 4.8% to $19.4 billion [2] - Refined oil exports decreased significantly, with a volume of 12.45 million tons, down 16%, and a value of $8.6 billion, down 22.8% [2] - Copper ore imports increased by 1.8% in volume to 7.11 million tons, with a value of $17.2 billion, up 4% [4] - Crude oil imports fell by 1.5% to 135.27 million tons, with a value of $74.8 billion, down 8.3% [4] - Iron ore imports decreased by 7.8% in volume to 285.33 million tons, with a significant value drop of 27.5% to $28.3 billion [4] - Liquefied natural gas imports saw a 20.9% decrease in volume to 15.56 million tons, with a value of $8.7 billion, down 24.5% [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 518,000 tons in April, an increase from 506,000 tons in March [1]