——2025 年业绩快报点评 青岛银行（002948.SZ）：不良双降、拨 备提升，盈利大幅改善 投资建议：作为深耕经济大省的优质城商行，山东省经济发展向好为青岛银 行快速扩表提供坚实基础；公司自身资负结构持续优化，近年净息差表现好 于同业，未来降幅有望继续收窄；历史不良包袱出清，化债、稳地产等政策 推动风险预期改善，信用成本仍有下降空间，有望推动盈利保持较好增长。 2025 年 11 月青岛银行大股东青岛国信集团完成本次增持计划，持股比例由 14.99%提升至 19.17%，此次大幅增持彰显大股东对公司未来发展前景的信 心。 我们预计 2025-2027 年归 母净利润增 速分别 为 21.7%、20.4%、 20.2%，对应 BVPS 分别为 7.35、8.45、9.75 元/股。1 月 28 日收盘价 4.63 元/股，对应 2025 年 0.63 倍 PB 估值。维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：经济复苏、实体需求恢复、信贷规模扩张不及预期；行业净息差 大幅收窄；资产质量出现预期外大幅波动。 2026 年 1 月 29 日 推荐/维持 青岛银行 公司报告 公司简介： 青岛银行成立于 1996 年 11 月 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the banking sector is expected to see a marginal improvement in profitability in 2026, driven by a stabilization in net interest margins and a recovery in net interest income [4][24]. - The banking sector's performance in 2025 was characterized by significant fluctuations, with state-owned banks outperforming others, particularly in the first half of the year [16][21]. - The report highlights that the core revenue growth is expected to shift from "other non-interest income + provisions" to "net interest income + middle-income" as the main support for bank profitability [4][24]. Group 2 - The report forecasts that net interest margins will stabilize in 2026 due to a continued improvement in funding costs, with an estimated increase of approximately 11.6 basis points from deposit repricing [6][42]. - It is anticipated that credit growth will continue to slow down, with a projected year-on-year increase of around 5.6% in 2026, influenced by structural changes in the economy and financing demand [49][52]. - Non-interest income is expected to recover moderately, while contributions from other non-interest income are likely to decline [4][24]. Group 3 - Long-term capital is expected to maintain strong allocation momentum, particularly from insurance capital, which is anticipated to continue increasing its investment in banks [5][48]. - The report suggests that passive funds are likely to flow into bank stocks due to market stabilization expectations and the expansion of ETFs [5][48]. - Active funds are currently underweight in the banking sector, but this is expected to change as performance benchmarks are reformed [5][48]. Group 4 - Investment recommendations include focusing on state-owned banks, leading city commercial banks benefiting from regional economic growth, and small to medium-sized banks with high elasticity in a recovering economy [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of banks with strong customer bases, robust loan organization capabilities, and solid provisioning in demonstrating strong performance resilience [4][24].

Core Insights - The banking sector in China is showing signs of profit recovery, with a slight decrease in net profit year-on-year, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Profitability - In the first half of 2025, commercial banks achieved a cumulative net profit of 1.2 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2]. - The net profit growth rate for the banking industry turned positive in the second quarter, reaching 0.1% year-on-year [3]. - Different types of banks showed varied performance, with state-owned banks performing best, while rural commercial banks lagged significantly [3]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for commercial banks in the first half of the year was 1.42%, with a slight decrease of 1 basis point from the previous quarter, indicating a significant slowdown in the rate of decline [5]. - The interest margins for different bank types were reported as follows: state-owned banks at 1.31%, joint-stock banks at 1.55%, city commercial banks at 1.37%, and rural commercial banks at 1.58% [5]. - The decline in net interest margin is expected to stabilize around 1.4% for the remainder of the year due to supportive monetary policies [6]. Group 3: Asset Quality - As of the end of the second quarter, the non-performing loan (NPL) balance was 3.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 24 billion yuan from the previous quarter, with the NPL ratio dropping to 1.49% [7]. - The NPL ratios for different bank types were as follows: state-owned banks at 1.21%, joint-stock banks at 1.22%, city commercial banks at 1.76%, and rural commercial banks at 2.77%, all showing a decline from the previous quarter [7]. - The provision coverage ratio for commercial banks increased to 211.97%, reflecting improved risk resilience [7][8].