银行业 2026 年投资策略：盈利改善与资 金驱动共振，看好行业配置价值 2025 年 12 月 19 日 看好/维持 银行 行业报告 行情回顾：2025 年银行行情受市场风格影响阶段性特征明显，上半年持续上涨创新高，三季度调整，四季度修复，全年有绝 对无相对收益。子板块中，国有行表现更好；个股方面，受益于险资持续流入，港股银行表现亮眼。 基本面展望：2026 年上市银行盈利增速有望边际小幅提升。核心改善因子为净息差企稳，净利息收入有望恢复正增长。中 收预计延续温和修复趋势，而其他非息收入贡献预计下降，资产质量和信用成本预计总体保持平稳。我们判断银行盈利支撑 将逐步从过去几年的"其他非息+拨备反哺"向"净利息收入+中收"核心营收切换。子板块来看，预计城商行业绩继续领跑， 主要基于规模增速高，优质城商行资产质量平稳、拨备厚实。个股来看，客户基础更牢固、贷款组织能力、客户综合经营能 力更强、存量拨备厚实的银行将展现较强的业绩弹性。 | 分析师 | 林瑾璐 电话：021-25102905 邮箱：linjl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480519070002 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Insights - The banking sector in China is showing signs of profit recovery, with a slight decrease in net profit year-on-year, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Profitability - In the first half of 2025, commercial banks achieved a cumulative net profit of 1.2 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2]. - The net profit growth rate for the banking industry turned positive in the second quarter, reaching 0.1% year-on-year [3]. - Different types of banks showed varied performance, with state-owned banks performing best, while rural commercial banks lagged significantly [3]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for commercial banks in the first half of the year was 1.42%, with a slight decrease of 1 basis point from the previous quarter, indicating a significant slowdown in the rate of decline [5]. - The interest margins for different bank types were reported as follows: state-owned banks at 1.31%, joint-stock banks at 1.55%, city commercial banks at 1.37%, and rural commercial banks at 1.58% [5]. - The decline in net interest margin is expected to stabilize around 1.4% for the remainder of the year due to supportive monetary policies [6]. Group 3: Asset Quality - As of the end of the second quarter, the non-performing loan (NPL) balance was 3.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 24 billion yuan from the previous quarter, with the NPL ratio dropping to 1.49% [7]. - The NPL ratios for different bank types were as follows: state-owned banks at 1.21%, joint-stock banks at 1.22%, city commercial banks at 1.76%, and rural commercial banks at 2.77%, all showing a decline from the previous quarter [7]. - The provision coverage ratio for commercial banks increased to 211.97%, reflecting improved risk resilience [7][8].