市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 居民存款"搬家"，增量资金流向何方？——"重 估牛"系列之资金篇（一） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 7 月至今，市场行情具有较为典型的"资金驱动"特征。居民资金或正从银行理财产品 逐渐转而流向非银理财产品与资本市场，而各行业融资余额上升幅度、小单资金净买入均与行 业涨跌幅成正相关。从不同资金行为上看，杠杆资金偏好机械设备、电子、医药等行业，7-8 月 小单持续流入市场，8 月起大单逐步流入市场，二者均流入计算机、机械设备、电子等行业较 多，ETF 资金整体维持稳定流入，市场中长期重要增量资金或稳步入市。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 李巍东 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 居民存款"搬家"，增量资金流向何方？——"重 2] 估牛"系列之资金篇（一） [Table_Sum ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the A-share market has seen significant trading activity, with total transactions exceeding 25.88 billion yuan on August 19, marking five consecutive trading days above 20 billion yuan [1] - As of August 18, the financing balance of A-shares has risen to 20.88 billion yuan, maintaining above 20 billion yuan for six consecutive trading days [1] - The current A-share market rally is driven by multiple funding sources, including support from the Central Huijin Investment Ltd., retail investors, and quantitative strategies, indicating a shift from "institutional clustering" to a "diverse symbiosis" in market dynamics [1] Group 2 - Public mutual funds have seen a significant influx of new capital, with active equity fund stock positions rising to their highest levels this year [1] - Since July, over 70% of newly established equity funds have been focused on stock investments, reflecting a strong interest in equity markets [1] - The scale of stock ETFs, cross-border ETFs, and commodity ETFs has significantly increased this year, indicating a growing trend in diversified investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through the previous high of 3674 in the third quarter, with current fluctuations nurturing new momentum [2][3] - External disturbances have limited impact on A-shares, and any short-term sharp declines may provide opportunities for rate-sensitive investments [3] - The semiconductor industry is in an upward cycle, with AI being the primary growth driver, supported by strong cloud AI demand and accelerating terminal AI applications [4] Group 2 - The current A-share market is driven by capital, with a clear policy bottom, and leveraged funds are boosting trading volume [5] - The transition between old and new growth drivers remains the main theme, with some industries showing signs of profit improvement [5] - The disturbances in August are not the end but rather a buildup for the policy window in September, with expectations of emotional stabilization and recovery [7]

Core Viewpoints - The current market environment shows similarities to the end of 2014, with a potential for policy changes aimed at stimulating domestic demand and addressing "involution" [5][4]. Economic Indicators - China's June CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the first increase after four months of decline; core CPI increased by 0.7%, the highest in 14 months. PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. - The shift in CPI is attributed to a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, which saw a reduction in the year-on-year decline from 1.0% to 0.5% [2]. Equity Market Insights - A-shares are driven by capital rather than traditional macro factors, with significant inflows expected from insurance and public funds, particularly into the technology sector [4]. - Hong Kong stocks are viewed as having high cost-effectiveness and potential for growth, supported by expected inflows from Southbound capital and a favorable earnings outlook [6][7]. Industry Research - The "involution" policy is driving sectors like steel and new energy, while AI is enhancing the performance of technology leaders, suggesting a focus on high-quality stocks and sectors with significant growth potential [9][10]. - The introduction of Grok-4 is expected to significantly enhance AI reasoning capabilities, leading to new investment opportunities in the computing industry [10]. Macro and Fixed Income - The bond market is anticipated to experience a slowdown in the downward trend of interest rates, with a focus on the 10-year government bond yield remaining stable [18]. - The current high valuation of convertible bonds limits their upward potential, with a recommendation to focus on lower-priced strategies [19]. Asset Allocation Strategies - A "dividend base + small-cap growth" strategy is recommended, focusing on high dividend and cash flow assets to mitigate external risks while also investing in high-volatility new stocks [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in Hong Kong stock market activity, with June's average daily trading volume reaching approximately 230 billion, doubling from last year's 110 billion, indicating heightened market enthusiasm [1] - In June, 44 companies went public, raising 280 billion, a substantial increase from 30 companies and 66 billion in the same period last year, reflecting a fourfold growth in fundraising [1] - The article notes a record number of IPOs on a single day, with five companies and one ETF listed, marking the highest daily listing count since July 2018 [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the rising short-selling ratio in the Hong Kong market, which reached its second-highest level since April 15, indicating market divergence and sentiment concerns [2] - There is a significant concern regarding the impact of the food delivery price war on major platforms like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com, questioning whether the stock prices have adequately reflected the increased operational costs [4] - Despite a temporary boost from 12 billion in southbound capital, stock prices for Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com fell significantly, with declines of 3.8%, 2.5%, and around 2% respectively, returning to levels seen in September of the previous year [5] Group 3 - The article mentions the A-share market's struggle to maintain above the 3500-point mark, with concerns that breaching this level could trigger quantitative selling mechanisms [7] - It highlights that the current market dynamics are primarily driven by capital flows, as evidenced by the high opening of A-shares despite weak CPI and PPI data [11] - The article also points out a disconnect between the banking sector's fundamentals and stock performance, with bank indices reaching historical highs despite concerns over net interest margins and non-performing loan rates [13][15]