9月30日，华泰证券表示，考虑风格均衡、日历效应与红利价值，银行配置性价比有所提升。受资金偏 好切换影响，7月中旬以来银行最大回撤约15%，部分优质银行25E股息率回到5%以上，随大盘上涨斜 率放缓+经济数据基数扰动，Q4资金或有避险需求，叠加年底日历效应，银行短期胜率有望改善。中期 维度，政策层面重视稳息差+预防尾部风险，银行核心业务盈利有望持续改善，资产质量担忧缓释，股 息持续性增强对长线资金吸引力。关注险资（I9切换、新增保费驱动）+产业资本（尤其地方国资）+外 资的增量配置盘。推荐优质区域行，及股息稳健的相关银行。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

华泰证券研报表示，受市场风险偏好提升、资金风格切换影响，中信银行指数自7月高点最大回撤约 15%，指数PBlf回落至0.62x，近5年分位数74%；共有37家A股银行跌破半年线、14家跌破年线，部分优 质银行25E股息率升至5%以上（华泰预测，截至9/26），重新具备较高配置性价比。随大盘上行斜率放 缓，叠加近期经济指标仍待修复，四季度资金或有切换避险需求。结合日历效应：1）2011年以来银行 指数在1月跑赢沪深300概率高达79%；2）11月-次年1月为银行中期分红高峰，资金或提前布局开门红 与中期分红行情。风格均衡+红利配置影响下，我们认为Q4市场配置需求将有所恢复，银行股短期胜率 有望改善。 ...

银行股盘中一度加速下挫，工商银行一度跌超2%，近一年来首次跌破半年线；农业银行、中信银行、中国银行均跌近2%，中 证银行指数时隔一年跌至年线附近。 截至发稿，银行AH优选ETF（517900）收复早盘跌幅，呈探底回升走势。 银河证券指出，今年以来，险资11次举牌上市银行，其中10次为H股，股息率吸引力仍存。银行板块估值低、分红稳、业绩波 动小，股息率仍有优势，符合险资对收益稳健性和长周期考核的需求。险资配置银行除获取稳健分红外，还可通过权益法改 善利润表，高ROE银行预计受青睐。 一方面，多家银行股东、高管积极增持，光大银行、南京银行、华夏银行、苏州银行等发布增持公告。多家银行在公告中表 示，增持是出于对自身未来发展前景的信心与长期投资价值的认可。这一信心也反映在银行业的整体稳健表现上。 同时，社保基金也加大银行板块配置，根据银河证券测算，二季度，社保持有银行仓位升至51.71%，环比提高2.48个百分点； 持有银行流通市值占比达6.31%，环比上升0.13个百分点。 场内资金则借道相关ETF布局。银行AH优选ETF（517900）近4日获资金连续净流入2087万元。 | 1.464 0.000 0.00% ...

Group 1 - A-share market experienced a sudden cooling, with technology stocks declining while bank stocks saw a resurgence, particularly Agricultural Bank and Postal Savings Bank reaching record highs [1] - The market capitalization of the banking sector in A-shares has reached 11.31 trillion yuan, surpassing the electronics sector, indicating a potential shift back to banks as the market's main focus [3] - The narrowing of interest margin declines and reduced non-interest disturbances are expected to drive improvements in revenue and profit growth for listed banks in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 2 - Insurance capital has been actively purchasing bank stocks this year, driven by high dividend yields, low valuations, and stable operations, suggesting significant room for further allocation to the banking sector [3] - It is estimated that insurance capital will bring an incremental investment of 1,404 billion yuan and 737 billion yuan to bank stocks in 2025, with an additional potential increase of over 200 billion yuan from equity asset allocation limits [3] - As of the end of August, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.71, indicating a low valuation level compared to historical data, making it an attractive investment option [3] Group 3 - CITIC Securities noted that the profitability of banks has stabilized and slightly exceeded expectations, with improved quarterly earnings and a stable asset quality outlook [4] - The bank ETF (512800) and its linked funds are effective investment tools for tracking the overall performance of the banking sector, with a significant scale and liquidity [4] - The bank ETF has maintained a scale within the hundred billion range, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 600 million yuan, making it the largest and most liquid among A-share bank ETFs [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The Longjiang Bank Index increased by 0.7% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.0% and the ChiNext Index by 0.5%. The market's focus on bank stocks has accelerated, particularly on high-quality city commercial banks [2][20] - The fiscal injection into major state-owned banks has been realized, with expectations for further injections into other banks. The average dividend yield for A-shares of the five major state-owned banks is approaching 4%, while H-shares maintain a valuation advantage [10][42] - The market is paying close attention to convertible bond banks, with potential valuation recovery and trading opportunities identified [8][28] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Longjiang Bank Index has shown a cumulative increase of 0.7% this week, with significant individual performances from Minsheng Bank and Nanjing Bank, the latter having met the conditions for convertible bond redemption [6][20] Fiscal Injection Impact - As of June 13, 2025, the fiscal injection for Bank of China and Bank of Communications has been completed, with expectations for similar actions for China Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank. The average dividend yield for H-shares of the five major state-owned banks is 5.51%, showing a significant discount compared to A-shares [7][10][42] Convertible Bonds - The market has focused on banks with convertible bonds, particularly those like Hangzhou Bank, which are expected to see valuation recovery as they meet redemption conditions. Nanjing Bank has also exceeded the strong redemption price for 15 trading days [8][28] Social Financing and Loan Growth - In May, the social financing growth rate remained stable at 8.7%, with new RMB loans decreasing to 7.1%. The total new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 224.1 billion yuan, primarily driven by government bonds [9][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The banking index increased by 0.1% as of May 30, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.2% and the ChiNext index by 1.5%. The market's focus on bank stocks has increased significantly due to active fund allocation, with a continued upward trend in the sector, particularly for city commercial banks with relatively strong performance [2][6][19] - The growth rate of real estate loans turned positive for the first time since Q3 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 0.04% as of the end of March. This was primarily driven by a recovery in mortgage demand, with new personal housing loans amounting to 2,144 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2,093 billion [7][34][40] - The inclusion of Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank into the CSI 300 index is expected to attract more index funds, providing a positive outlook for these constituent stocks [8][47] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of May 30, 2025, the banking index has shown a cumulative increase of 0.1%, with significant gains in city commercial banks like Hangzhou Bank, which saw its stock price rise after triggering a strong redemption condition for its convertible bonds [2][6][19] Loan Trends - In Q1 2025, the growth of corporate medium and long-term loans decreased, with industrial loans adding 1.52 trillion, down 140 billion year-on-year, and service sector loans adding 2.99 trillion, down 550 billion year-on-year. However, personal housing loans saw a significant increase, indicating a recovery in the housing market [7][34][40] Index Adjustments - The adjustment of the CSI 300 index, which includes Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, is expected to lead to increased capital inflow into these stocks, enhancing their market performance [8][47] Convertible Bonds - The recent surge in bank stocks has narrowed the price gap to the strong redemption price for banks issuing convertible bonds. Hangzhou Bank's stock price has remained above the strong redemption price for 15 consecutive trading days, indicating strong investor confidence [9][48]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities reports a slight decline in the proportion of bank stocks among actively managed funds, indicating a more diversified market investment style in Q1 2025, while maintaining an optimistic outlook for bank stock allocation [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In Q1 2025, the proportion of bank stocks in actively managed funds decreased by 0.37 percentage points from the previous quarter's peak [1] - The market investment style is becoming increasingly diversified, reflecting changing investor preferences [1] Group 2: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, trade frictions continue to impact market expectations, suggesting that low-volatility sectors hold allocation value [1] - In the mid-term, under the two macro scenarios of "prudent" and "weakening," the banking sector demonstrates relatively stable fundamentals compared to most industries, highlighting significant relative value [1] - The recommendation is to actively increase allocation to bank stocks due to their robust characteristics [1]