中国银行业正站在一个新老风险交汇的十字路口。 国信证券于9月29日发布的研究报告《资产质量十五年上市银行不良出清与拨备压力观察》(以下简 称"《报告》")显示，在过去15年中，银行持续进行不良出清，从小微贷款、制造业及批零行业贷款到 后来的房地产开发贷、城投贷款，再到当前的零售贷款。我国银行的不良暴露分摊在较长时期内，而且 是不同领域轮流暴露而非集中爆发，对银行报表的影响被摊薄，实现了软着陆。 《报告》认为，2021年开始房地产行业风险暴露，2023年达到峰值4.42%，而后有所回落，但目前仍处 于较高水平，尚未完全出清。目前包括个人住房贷款、个人消费贷款、信用卡贷款和个人经营性贷款在 内的各类型零售贷款不良率都在上升，零售风险正在暴露当中。 尤为值得关注的是，这一风险轮动的背景下，银行利润表的稳定性并未被轻易打破。报告指出，自2011 年本轮风险周期开启以来，通过各行业不良贷款的"轮流暴露"与出清，叠加银行主动的信贷结构调整和 拨备工具的"削峰填谷"，上市银行得以在不良生成率持续处于0.7%左右较高水平的环境下，维持财务表 现的相对平稳。 一场行业轮动的"压力缓释" 《报告》将2011年定义为本轮银行资产质 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The total loan scale of 42 listed banks reached 184 trillion yuan by June 2025, with corporate loans accounting for 121 trillion yuan (65.74%) and retail loans at 63 trillion yuan (34.26%) [16][19] - The proportion of retail loans has decreased, with corporate loans providing the main incremental growth. Since 2020, the share of retail loans in total loans has dropped from 41.22% to 34.26%, while corporate loans increased from 58.78% to 65.74%, achieving a credit increment of 78% during this period [16][17] - The decline in retail loans is attributed to weak real estate and consumer demand, with personal housing loans decreasing from 20.18% to 14.11% and credit card loans from 4.96% to 3.39% from 2020 to June 2025 [17][18] - Corporate loans have shifted focus from real estate to broad infrastructure, with corporate real estate loans accounting for only 5% of total loans by June 2025, down from 1.39 percentage points since 2020. Broad infrastructure loans have increased by 5.20 percentage points [18] Summary by Sections Overall Credit Structure Changes - As of June 2025, the total loan scale of listed banks is 184 trillion yuan, with corporate loans at 121 trillion yuan (65.74%) and retail loans at 63 trillion yuan (34.26%) [16] - The shift in credit structure aligns with national strategic guidance and economic cycles, with corporate loans expanding at a much faster rate than retail loans [16][17] Changes in Retail Loan Structure - Personal housing loans and credit card loans have seen a decline in their proportions due to weak real estate and consumer demand [17] - The share of personal housing loans decreased from 20.18% to 14.11%, while credit card loans fell from 4.96% to 3.39% from 2020 to June 2025 [17] Changes in Corporate Loan Structure - Corporate loans have become the core focus for banks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a cautious approach to real estate lending [18] - The proportion of corporate real estate loans has decreased to 5%, while broad infrastructure loans have increased significantly [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry, expecting improvements in the fundamental outlook for the next year [2][105]. Core Insights - The stability of asset quality in the banking sector is attributed to the gradual exposure and clearing of non-performing loans over the past 15 years, with different sectors experiencing issues at different times [1][12]. - Banks have actively adjusted their loan structures to mitigate risks, reducing exposure to sectors with rising non-performing loans [1][66]. - The impact of non-performing loans on profit statements has been minimized due to proactive provisioning strategies, including excess provisioning in previous years [1][69][70]. - Non-credit asset risks have also been largely cleared or are at minimal levels, contributing to overall stability in the banking sector [1][90]. Summary by Sections Asset Quality and Non-Performing Loans - The report highlights that the overall non-performing loan generation rate for listed banks has stabilized around 0.7%, which is still considered high compared to historical peaks [2][12]. - Different banks exhibit varying levels of asset quality pressure and provisioning capabilities, with larger banks and some city commercial banks performing better [2][93]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with strong asset quality and low provisioning pressure, such as Chengdu Bank, Changsha Bank, Zhangjiagang Bank, and Ruifeng Bank [2][105]. - It also recommends high-quality cyclical stocks like Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, which are expected to show early signs of recovery [2][105]. Loan Sector Analysis - The manufacturing and retail sectors have seen a clearing of non-performing loans, with their rates returning to levels seen in 2010 [26][30]. - The real estate sector's non-performing loan rate peaked in 2023 but has since shown signs of recovery, although it remains elevated [35][37]. - Retail loan risks are currently rising, with various types of personal loans experiencing increased non-performing rates [50][53]. Provisioning and Profit Stability - Banks have historically maintained excess provisions, which can be utilized to smooth profits during periods of rising non-performing loans [69][75]. - The current provisioning levels are deemed adequate to support stable profits for the next few years, with estimates suggesting that existing provisions could release at least 800 billion yuan in net profit [81][90].

| 银行名称 | 2024年资产 总计(亿元) | 2025年中报 资产总计 | 同比变化 | 2024年报贷款 | 2025中报贷款 总额(亿元) | 同比变化 | 202 存款 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | (%) | 总额(亿元) | | (%) | (12 | | 北京银行 | 42215.42 | 47478.19 | 12.47 | 22099.75 | 23908.56 | 8.18 | 248: | | 长沙银行 | 11467.48 | 12473.85 | 8.78 | 5451.09 | 6026.92 | 10.56 | 736 | | 成都银行 | 12501.16 | 13722.25 | 9.77 | 7413.19 | 8334.15 | 12.42 | 882 | | 甘肃银行 | 4147.08 | 4274.82 | 3.08 | 2248.60 | 2348.29 | 4.43 | 321 | | 贵阳银行 | 7056.69 | 7415.36 | 5.08 | 339 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decision to maintain the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% reflects a strategic approach to stabilize the economy while promoting gradual progress, amidst global interest rate fluctuations and inflation uncertainties [4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The LPR was kept unchanged as of September 22, indicating a deliberate and targeted monetary policy rather than inaction [4]. - The current environment of low interest rates for corporate and personal housing loans, approximately 3.1%, aims to alleviate financial burdens for businesses and residents [4]. Group 2: Economic Strategy - The rationale behind not further lowering interest rates is to avoid excessive borrowing that could inflate asset bubbles, while also preventing high rates that could suppress consumption and investment [4]. - The focus is on precise measures, utilizing structural tools and targeted relending to direct financial resources towards key areas such as technological innovation and green development [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - A stable and low interest rate environment is seen as a foundation for accumulating strength in the Chinese economy, preparing for the next phase of high-quality growth [4].

Group 1 - The first batch of 8 banking financial institutions in Shenzhen has publicly announced a list of third-party cooperation agencies for credit business, which includes major banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Bank [1] - The third-party agencies primarily cover three categories: marketing and customer acquisition, guarantee and credit enhancement, and collection services [1] - Financial institutions will continuously update the list based on business developments and encourage customers to verify the legitimacy of any third-party claims [1] Group 2 - The public disclosure of the third-party cooperation agency list is an effort to implement regulatory requirements, protect financial consumers' rights, and combat illegal loan intermediaries [2] - Illegal loan intermediaries have been a significant issue in the financial sector, with instances of companies falsely claiming partnerships with banks to attract customers [2] - Common tactics used by illegal loan intermediaries include impersonating legitimate financial institutions, offering low-interest rates, and making false service promises, which can lead to consumer financial losses and data breaches [2] Group 3 - Regulatory authorities have intensified efforts to combat financial "black and gray industries," focusing on illegal loan intermediaries and related financial crimes [3] - A new regulation from the National Financial Supervision Administration mandates that commercial banks manage and disclose lists of platform operators and credit enhancement service providers, effective October 1 [3] - The regulation prohibits banks from collaborating with institutions not on the approved list for internet lending services [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's loan scale has maintained reasonable growth and the credit structure has continued to optimize in the first eight months of the year [1][2]. - As of the end of August, the balance of RMB loans reached 269.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%. Notably, inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector grew by 11.8% and 8.6%, respectively, surpassing the overall loan growth rate [2]. - The advanced manufacturing sector, represented by high-tech and equipment manufacturing, has shown high levels of prosperity, leading to increased financing demand and supporting credit growth [2]. Group 2 - Personal loans have also seen an increase, driven by traditional summer consumption peaks and policies such as "old-for-new" promotions, which have further released consumer demand [2]. - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate and personal housing loans in August remained at approximately 3.1%, continuing to stay at historically low levels [3]. - In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 711 billion yuan and loans to enterprises increasing by 12.22 trillion yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of personal housing loans in China, highlighting the significant role of major banks in this sector and the rising non-performing loan (NPL) rates due to a sluggish real estate market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Personal Housing Loan Balances - As of June 2025, the total personal housing loan balance in China reached 37.74 trillion yuan, with the top eight banks accounting for 73.17% of this total [2]. - The major banks' personal housing loan balances as of June 2025 are as follows: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) at 6.05 trillion yuan, China Construction Bank (CCB) at 6.15 trillion yuan, and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) at 4.93 trillion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Non-Performing Loan Rates - The NPL rate for personal housing loans at ICBC increased to 0.86% by June 2025, up from 0.73% at the end of 2024, marking a significant rise over the past five years [4][5]. - Other major banks also reported NPL rates exceeding 0.7%, indicating a widespread issue across the banking sector [5]. Group 3: Measures to Address NPLs - In response to rising NPLs, banks have increasingly turned to the securitization of personal housing loans as a means to manage these assets [8][11]. - The number of securitization projects has grown from 6 in 2020 to 29 in 2024, with 19 projects already completed in the first half of 2025 [8][13]. - The total amount of personal housing NPLs disposed of through securitization reached 70.11 billion yuan in 2024, with 49.59 billion yuan disposed of in the first half of 2025 [11][14]. Group 4: Impact on Housing Market - The increase in securitization and the corresponding rise in the number of disposed loans suggest that banks may become significant sellers of housing, potentially impacting housing prices negatively [16][26]. - The number of housing units associated with disposed NPLs reached 83,779 in the first half of 2025, indicating a substantial volume of properties being sold off [16][26].

今年上半年，个人住房贷款利率稳步下行。最新数据显示，今年6月新发放个人住房贷款利率约为 3.1%，较2018年下半年以来的高点下降约2.7个百分点，继续保持低位。多家上市银行负责人在近期举 行的2025年中期业绩发布会上表示，接下来将抓好系列政策落实，延伸住房金融服务链条，巩固房地产 市场止跌回稳态势。 房地产金融服务关系千家万户，是一项内涵丰富的生态系统工程，不是"发放贷款、赚取利息"这么简 单。以消费者购房或租房的全流程需求为例：在服务初期，消费者最迫切的需求是"去哪儿找房、哪个 房子适合我"；在服务中期，消费者要在一次性付款和分期付款之间作出抉择；在服务后期，消费者还 将面临装修、购置家电等消费需求，而具体到每项需求，不同类型的消费者又有着各自的差异化期待。 消费者的全链条、个性化需求，就是住房金融服务改进、优化的方向。接下来，金融机构要以住房生态 为切入点，做精做优金融服务，提升服务的可得性与易得性。 破解"配套少"，主动授信、精准对接。长期以来，消费者购房后的一系列配套服务需求并没有得到金融 机构的充分重视与挖掘，如装修、购置家具、购买家电等，部分机构没有变坐商为行商，缺乏对各类消 费场景的深度挖掘 ...

Core Insights - The phenomenon of early mortgage repayment among residents has shown signs of alleviation in the first half of this year [1] - Among 19 listed banks, 5 saw a decrease in personal housing loan balances compared to the end of last year, a significant improvement from 14 banks in the same period last year [1] - The asset quality of personal housing loans has shown mixed results, with 10 out of 14 banks reporting an increase in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios [1][4] Group 1: Loan Balances - The total personal housing loan balance of the six major state-owned banks decreased by over 107.8 billion yuan in the first half of this year, a significant reduction compared to 325.47 billion yuan in the same period last year [3] - The four major banks (ICBC, ABC, BOC, and CCB) collectively reduced their personal housing loans by 132.13 billion yuan, a decrease less than the 347.4 billion yuan drop in the previous year [3] - Among the 10 national joint-stock banks, CITIC Bank led with an increase of 38.436 billion yuan in personal housing loans, while other banks like China Merchants Bank and Minsheng Bank also saw increases exceeding 20 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Asset Quality - In the first half of 2025, the NPL ratios for major state-owned banks increased, with ICBC reporting the highest at 0.86%, while other banks had similar ratios [6] - Among the 11 banks that disclosed personal housing loan asset quality, 9 reported an increase in NPLs, contrasting with the collective increase seen in 2024 [4][6] - Two joint-stock banks, China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank, achieved a dual decrease in their mortgage loan NPL ratios [6] Group 3: Market Trends - The growth in second-hand housing loans has been significant, with a reported increase of over 20% compared to the previous year, contributing positively to overall loan growth [4] - The overall loan acceptance and issuance volumes for housing loans have significantly improved compared to the same period last year, indicating a more favorable market environment [4]