机构：财通证券 结转规模下降拖累营收，计提减值净利阶段性承压。受房地产开发项目上下半年交付节奏不均等影响， 1H2025 公司结转面积同比下滑22.7%，结转规模收缩拖累公司营收，1H2025 公司实现营业收入533.7 亿元，同比下降23.3%。公司归母净利润下滑幅度超营业收入下滑幅度的主要原因为：1）1H2025 公司 积极推动长库存去化，计提资产损失同比增加1.9 亿元至19.3亿元；2）其他收入（含利息收入等）同比 减少7.9 亿元；3）应占联营公司业绩同比下滑3.0 亿元至1.5 亿元。 销售降幅低于TOP10 房企平均降幅，销售表现优于行业龙头公司平均水平。 1H2025 公司总合同销售额（含代建）同比下滑3.4%至1222 亿元，其中自投项目销售额同比下滑6.0%至 803 亿元，TOP10 房企销售额同比下降14.0%，公司销售降幅低于TOP10 房企平均降幅。从销售结构上 来看，公司加速库存去化，1H2025 实现2021 年及以前的库存去化约190 亿元。从销售均价及毛利率上 来看，公司自投项目销售均价3.5 万元/平方米，维持行业较高水平，销售毛利率同比提升1.0pct 至 12.7%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Huafa Group (600325.SH) [1][3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 38.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 170 million yuan, a decline of 86.4% compared to the same period last year [3][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.20 yuan per share to all shareholders [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: 59.99 billion yuan - 2025: 62.03 billion yuan - 2026: 57.07 billion yuan - 2027: 50.79 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected to be -16.8% in 2024, 3.4% in 2025, -8.0% in 2026, and -11.0% in 2027 [5][9] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2024: 951 million yuan - 2025: 704 million yuan - 2026: 749 million yuan - 2027: 815 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected to be -48.2% in 2024, -26.0% in 2025, 6.4% in 2026, and 8.9% in 2027 [5][9] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin is expected to be 14.3% for 2024 and remain stable at around 14.1% to 14.3% through 2027 [5][9] - Net margin is projected to be 1.6% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026, and 1.6% in 2027 [5][9] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 4.8% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2027 [5][9] Cash Flow and Debt Management - The company reported a cash flow from operating activities of 15.73 billion yuan in 2024, with projections of 29.19 billion yuan in 2025 [10] - The total liabilities are projected to decrease from 295.31 billion yuan in 2024 to 201.92 billion yuan in 2027 [8][10] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to decline from 70.3% in 2024 to 61.2% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [9]