Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate spot price has dropped to around 70,000 yuan/ton due to the resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL and a decline in lithium carbonate futures prices [1][11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In August, the production of lithium mica and its derived lithium carbonate decreased, but the overall domestic lithium carbonate production continued to grow due to increased output from other raw materials like spodumene, leading to persistent oversupply [2][5]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the third quarter (as of September 11) was 72,947.92 yuan/ton, which is approximately 12% higher than the second quarter average [2][8]. Market Fluctuations - The domestic lithium carbonate market experienced two rounds of price increases in the third quarter, driven by speculation around regulatory policies and supply disruptions [4]. - The market's response to the news of production stoppages and resumptions has led to significant price volatility in both futures and spot markets [6]. Production Insights - In August, lithium carbonate production reached 85,000 tons, a 39% increase year-on-year and a 5% increase month-on-month [6]. - Companies with stable production have the potential for profitability recovery in the third quarter, particularly those with fixed costs [3][9]. Cost and Profitability - Salt lake enterprises, which have stable production costs, are expected to see a recovery in profit margins due to the increase in lithium prices, although the impact may not be as pronounced [9]. - Companies like Zhongkuang Resources may achieve a turnaround in profitability in the third quarter as lithium carbonate prices rise to 73,000 yuan/ton [10]. Future Outlook - The potential resumption of production at CATL's Jiangxiawo lithium mine raises uncertainty about whether the spot price can maintain above 70,000 yuan/ton [11].

Core Insights - The lithium carbonate spot price has dropped to around 70,000 yuan/ton due to the resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL and a decline in lithium carbonate futures [1][8] - Despite a decrease in lithium mica and its derived lithium carbonate production in August, overall domestic lithium carbonate production continued to grow, indicating significant supply elasticity in the market [2][6] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the third quarter is 72,947.92 yuan/ton, reflecting a nearly 12% increase compared to the second quarter [2][10] Supply and Production - In August, lithium mica production decreased significantly, with a reported 13,980 tons LCE produced, down 7,120 tons from the previous month [5] - The overall lithium carbonate production in August reached 85,000 tons, a 39% increase year-on-year and a 5% increase month-on-month [7] - The supply-demand imbalance persists, with the market remaining oversupplied despite fluctuations in production due to external factors [7][12] Price Fluctuations - The lithium carbonate market experienced two price increases in the third quarter, driven by speculation and supply disruptions [4] - Following the announcement of the Jiangxiawo mine's resumption, the futures market and related lithium stocks saw significant declines, indicating a return to a supply-overhang pricing environment [8][15] - The average price of lithium hydroxide also increased compared to the second quarter, contributing to improved profitability for certain lithium salt companies [10][12] Profitability and Market Dynamics - Companies that did not experience production cuts are expected to see a temporary bottoming out of profits in the third quarter [3] - Salt lake enterprises with stable production costs are likely to see a recovery in profit margins, although the impact of rising lithium prices may be limited due to their cost advantages [11][12] - Companies like Zhongkuang Resources are projected to potentially turn losses into profits in the third quarter due to the increase in lithium carbonate prices [13] Future Outlook - New low-cost production capacity is expected to come online soon, which may further increase supply pressure in the market [14] - The potential for the Jiangxiawo lithium mine to resume production raises uncertainty about whether the spot price of lithium carbonate can maintain above 70,000 yuan/ton [15]