Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate futures may continue the volatile and weak pattern, with market focus on the开工 dynamics of lithium mines and salt plants in Jiangxi. The futures rebound space is limited by the rapid convergence of the basis. Potential variables include whether CATL's suspension triggers other salt plants to passively support prices and the marginal support of nickel - cobalt salt price increases on ternary material costs [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes** - On September 4, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous trading day. The basis narrowed significantly from 3,620 yuan/ton on September 3 to 1,280 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased to 353,600 lots, and trading volume soared to 712,200 lots, indicating increased market activity [2] 2. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side** - The proportion of lithium carbonate output from the spodumene smelting end has exceeded 60%, while that of lepidolite has dropped to 15%. Although the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 66.41% in September, the suspension of CATL's Yichun mining area may intensify local supply disturbances, and the resumption rhythm of salt plants needs attention [3] - **Demand Side** - The downstream shows the characteristic of "weak peak season". In August, the retail penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 55.3%, but the cost pressure of power batteries was transmitted to the mid - and upstream. The transaction price of lithium iron phosphate battery cells fell to 0.324 yuan/Wh, and the price of ternary materials also declined continuously. The demand for electrolyte and anode materials was boosted by the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking, but over - capacity restricted the price increase space [3] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts** - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 141,100 tons, but the absolute value was still at a high level, and the de - stocking speed was slow [3] 3. Market Price Monitoring - On September 4, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous day. The basis narrowed from 3,620 yuan/ton on September 3 to 1,280 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium carbonate market price was 74,700 yuan/ton, down 1.06% from the previous day. The price of power - type ternary materials decreased by 0.08% to 118,700 yuan/ton, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.63% to 33,995 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 66.41%, and the inventory decreased by 0.29% to 141,136 tons [6] 4. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotes** - On September 4, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,869 yuan/ton, down 886 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 73,400 - 76,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 75,000 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 72,000 - 73,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 72,700 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton. In September, the market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with demand growing faster, and there will be a stage of tight supply [7] - **Downstream Consumption** - According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association on September 3, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 1.079 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 55.3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.535 million, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The wholesale of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 1.292 million, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale this year was 8.926 million, a year - on - year increase of 33% [8] - **Industry News** - From August 21 - 28, the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. Affected by the Congo (Kinshasa) extension policy, China's cobalt intermediates will face raw material shortages in the future, and prices have upward momentum. Since August 10, CATL's Yichun mining area in Jiangxi has been shut down, and the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industry chain [9][10][11]