供需缺乏明显矛盾，碳酸锂后市仍需关注锂矿进展 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：9月22日碳酸锂主力合约价格收73420元/吨，小幅回落 540元/吨，下跌0.73%。基差报-120元/吨，较9月19日走强540元/吨。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量为271624手，较9月19日减少9640手；主力合 约成交量为396645手，较9月19日扩大26286手，变化率为7.1%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：锂辉石精矿和锂云母精矿市场价在9月19-22日维持稳定，分别为 6390元/吨和3400元/吨。碳酸锂产能利用率从9月12日的66.41%提升至9月 19日的71.31%，提升了4.9个百分点。 需求端：9月1-14日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售和批发数据同比和环比均 有增长，零售43.8万辆，同比增长6%，较上月同期增长10%；批发44.7万 辆，同比增长10%，较上月同期增长21%。动力型三元材料和动力型磷酸铁 锂价格在9月19 - 22日有小幅上扬，分别上涨200元/吨和80元/吨。下游电 芯价格部分有小幅度上涨。 库存与仓单：碳酸锂库存从9月12日的138512实物吨降至 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the pattern of being volatile and slightly strong. In the absence of additional marginal factors, the main LC2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to remain in the current range in the next 1 - 2 weeks. If downstream purchases are weak, it may retest the previous low [3] - The recent rebound of futures prices may be affected by the weakening of the basis and the stabilization of spot prices, but the changes in trading volume and open interest show market divergence. The supply side may support prices, and the demand side may bring short - term support, but the cautious procurement and sufficient inventory of downstream enterprises may limit the upside space. The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend [32][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On September 16, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract rose slightly to 73,180 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous day. The basis widened to - 1,080 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price was stronger relative to the spot. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 9,009 lots to 300,437 lots, a decrease of 2.91%, while the trading volume expanded by 3.62% to 500,267 lots [1][5][30] - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: On the supply side, the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, becoming the main support for supply, while the proportion of lithium mica decreased to 15%. The long - term supply increase expectation was enhanced, but short - term factors supported the spot. On the demand side, the demand for new energy vehicles was differentiated. The prices of cathode materials and most cell prices increased. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks to 138,512 tons, but the warehouse receipts remained high [2][31] - **Market Summary**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the volatile and slightly strong pattern. The supply side suppresses the upside space, while the demand side has a contradictory cost - pressure transmission, and market wait - and - see sentiment remains [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.69% to 73,180 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 86.21% to - 1,080 yuan/ton, the open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.91% to 300,437 lots, and the trading volume increased by 3.62% to 500,267 lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 72,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some related products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market**: On September 16, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose. The futures price fluctuated, and the downstream was cautious. In September, the market showed a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and a temporary supply shortage was expected [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 7, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the wholesale volume increased by 5% year - on - year [7] - **Industry News**: The lithium ore shutdown in Yichun, Jiangxi, may affect the supply, and the industry reshuffle from the supply side of lithium carbonate is coming [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - There are data charts on the main lithium carbonate futures and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., which visually show the data changes in the industrial chain [10][13][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate futures may continue the volatile and weak pattern, with market focus on the开工 dynamics of lithium mines and salt plants in Jiangxi. The futures rebound space is limited by the rapid convergence of the basis. Potential variables include whether CATL's suspension triggers other salt plants to passively support prices and the marginal support of nickel - cobalt salt price increases on ternary material costs [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes** - On September 4, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous trading day. The basis narrowed significantly from 3,620 yuan/ton on September 3 to 1,280 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased to 353,600 lots, and trading volume soared to 712,200 lots, indicating increased market activity [2] 2. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side** - The proportion of lithium carbonate output from the spodumene smelting end has exceeded 60%, while that of lepidolite has dropped to 15%. Although the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 66.41% in September, the suspension of CATL's Yichun mining area may intensify local supply disturbances, and the resumption rhythm of salt plants needs attention [3] - **Demand Side** - The downstream shows the characteristic of "weak peak season". In August, the retail penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 55.3%, but the cost pressure of power batteries was transmitted to the mid - and upstream. The transaction price of lithium iron phosphate battery cells fell to 0.324 yuan/Wh, and the price of ternary materials also declined continuously. The demand for electrolyte and anode materials was boosted by the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking, but over - capacity restricted the price increase space [3] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts** - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 141,100 tons, but the absolute value was still at a high level, and the de - stocking speed was slow [3] 3. Market Price Monitoring - On September 4, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous day. The basis narrowed from 3,620 yuan/ton on September 3 to 1,280 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium carbonate market price was 74,700 yuan/ton, down 1.06% from the previous day. The price of power - type ternary materials decreased by 0.08% to 118,700 yuan/ton, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.63% to 33,995 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 66.41%, and the inventory decreased by 0.29% to 141,136 tons [6] 4. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotes** - On September 4, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,869 yuan/ton, down 886 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 73,400 - 76,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 75,000 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 72,000 - 73,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 72,700 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton. In September, the market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with demand growing faster, and there will be a stage of tight supply [7] - **Downstream Consumption** - According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association on September 3, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 1.079 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 55.3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.535 million, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The wholesale of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 1.292 million, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale this year was 8.926 million, a year - on - year increase of 33% [8] - **Industry News** - From August 21 - 28, the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. Affected by the Congo (Kinshasa) extension policy, China's cobalt intermediates will face raw material shortages in the future, and prices have upward momentum. Since August 10, CATL's Yichun mining area in Jiangxi has been shut down, and the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industry chain [9][10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. The marginal improvement on the supply side and the insufficient realization of the peak - season demand on the demand side exert downward pressure, but the support comes from the resilience of new energy vehicle demand and inventory reduction. The resumption progress of Jiangxi mines and the change in downstream restocking rhythm should be closely monitored, and the new energy vehicle sales data in September may be the key variable to break the current balance [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes - On August 27, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 78,860 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.2% from the previous trading day, with short - term directional divergence. The basis was 2,640 yuan/ton, a slight weakening of 40 yuan compared to the previous day, and the basis center in the past week showed a downward trend, indicating that the downward pressure on the spot price was transmitted to the futures market [1]. - The main contract's open interest increased slightly by 0.52% to 351,000 lots, while the trading volume significantly rebounded by 30.4% to 729,000 lots, indicating intensified short - term capital games and fierce competition between long and short sides around key price levels [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, reaching 66.41% in the week of August 22. The accelerated release of lithium production from salt lakes partially offset the impact of the suspension of lithium mica mines in Yichun, Jiangxi. However, potential supply disruptions due to the re - application for mining licenses by Jiangxi mines before the end of September should be noted [2]. - Demand side: Downstream demand was divided. According to the Passenger Car Association, the year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle retail and wholesale in August were 9% and 18% respectively, indicating demand resilience. However, the cathode material market was weak, with the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropping for four consecutive weeks to 35,590 yuan/ton, the price of ternary materials remaining stable, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remaining flat for three consecutive weeks. Mid - stream procurement became more cautious, and the stocking demand weakened [2]. - Inventory and warrants: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 713 tons to 141,500 tons, but it remained at a relatively high level in the past five weeks [2] c. Market Summary - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. The marginal improvement on the supply side and the insufficient realization of the peak - season demand on the demand side exert downward pressure, but the support comes from the resilience of new energy vehicle demand and inventory reduction. The resumption progress of Jiangxi mines and the change in downstream restocking rhythm should be closely monitored, and the new energy vehicle sales data in September may be the key variable to break the current balance [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased from 79,020 yuan/ton to 78,860 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.2%. The basis decreased from 2,680 yuan/ton to 2,640 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1.49%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 0.52% to 351,322 lots, and the trading volume increased significantly by 30.39% to 729,645 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.24% to 81,500 yuan/ton. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.08% to 35,590 yuan/ton, while the prices of ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [5] - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 63.92% to 66.41%, an increase of 3.9%. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.5% to 141,543 tons. The prices of some battery cells showed small fluctuations, with the cobalt - acid lithium cell price increasing by 3.6% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotes - On August 27, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 81,671 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,300 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to pre - stocking by some downstream material factories, the procurement scale this week was smaller than last week. The current downstream procurement attitude is cautious, and they are waiting for further price drops. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the downstream demand has certain rigid support, and the short - term spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain relatively high and continue to fluctuate within a range [6] b. Downstream Consumption Situation - From August 1 - 17, the retail volume of the national new energy passenger vehicle market was 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 58.0%, and the cumulative retail volume this year was 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale volume of the national new energy passenger vehicle market was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The wholesale penetration rate was 56.4%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [7] c. Industry News - Since the official suspension of the Ningde Times' Jiangxi Yichun Jianxiawo mining area on August 10, the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industry chain [8]. - On August 18, Lanxiao Technology won the bid for the adsorption system of the expansion and transformation project of the comprehensive utilization of old brine lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake of Xinjiang Guotou Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid amount of 35.7712 million yuan. This project will help the company improve its market share and technical control ability in the salt lake lithium extraction industry [9]. - On August 15, the Jianxiawo mining area of Ningde Times stopped production due to the expiration of the mining license. Eight local mines in Yichun need to re - apply for mining licenses before September 30 this year [9] 4. Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process - Market data analysis: The main contract price decreased slightly, the basis weakened, the open interest increased slightly, and the trading volume increased significantly, indicating intensified market competition between long and short sides [30]. - Industry chain analysis: On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate increased, but the suspension of the Yichun mining area may cause supply shortages, which may be partially offset by new salt lake lithium extraction projects. On the demand side, new energy vehicle sales increased, but the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, indicating more cautious downstream procurement. The inventory decreased slightly, which may support the price [30][31][32]. - Price trend judgment: In the next one to two weeks, the market may maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The pressure comes from increased supply and demand hesitation, but the inventory decline may limit the decline [32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate market may fluctuate widely within the current range. The contraction expectation caused by CATL's production suspension on the supply side is being partially offset by the increase in salt - lake lithium extraction and the recovery of imports. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the procurement rhythm has become cautious due to previous stockpiling, and the continuous pressure on cathode material prices weakens demand elasticity. Lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate within the high - level range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes Analysis - On August 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 79,020 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.45% from the previous trading day. The basis continued to weaken, dropping from 3,320 yuan/ton on the 25th to 2,680 yuan/ton, and the futures discount to the spot increased, indicating that the market's expectation of future supply pressure has increased [1]. - The trading volume of the main contract shrank by 10.7% to 559,599 lots, and the open interest decreased by 19,171 lots. The trading activity of funds cooled down, and some long - positions left the market for risk - avoidance [1]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: There are both short - term disturbances and long - term adjustments. The suspension of CATL's Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mica mining area since August 10 has supported the spot market. However, the expansion projects of salt - lake lithium extraction are advancing, and the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate has increased by 2.49 percentage points week - on - week to 66.41%, so the overall supply has increased marginally. In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 22% month - on - month to 13,845 tons, but Chile's exports to China increased by 33% month - on - month, and the seasonal recovery of overseas supply may ease the tight domestic resource situation [2]. - **Demand side**: The demand in the peak season remains resilient but has limited upward momentum. From August 1 to 17, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 58%, and the demand has improved marginally. The production of cathode materials has remained at a high level, but the prices of power - type lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials have declined slightly, and the downstream cost transfer is under pressure. The overall cell prices are stable, and only the square lithium iron phosphate cells have risen slightly by 0.62%. The rigid demand on the demand side still exists, but the momentum for new orders is insufficient [2]. - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 713 tons week - on - week to 141,543 tons, with a destocking rate of 0.5%, indicating that the supply - demand tight - balance pattern continues. There is no significant change in warehouse receipts, and the low - inventory environment still supports the price bottom [2]. c. Market Summary - The short - term lithium carbonate market may fluctuate widely within the current range. The lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate within the high - level range, and attention should be paid to the unexpected disturbances to the supply caused by the production reduction or suspension events of lithium mica smelters due to cost inversion [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On August 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate was 79,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% from August 25. The basis was 2,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.28% from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 5.20% to 349,496 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 10.74% to 559,599 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% [5]. - From August 15 to August 22, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 63.92% to 66.41%, and the inventory decreased by 0.50% to 141,543 tons. Among the cells, the price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased by 0.23%, the price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 3.60%, and the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells increased by 0.62% [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Spot Market Quotations - On August 26, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 81,739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 780 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The downstream procurement and pricing activities increased slightly compared with the previous day, but some manufacturers reduced their procurement volume this week compared with last week. The overall downstream procurement attitude has become cautious, and they are generally waiting for further price cuts. In the short term, the spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain relatively high and continue to fluctuate within the range [6]. b. Downstream Consumption Situation - From August 1 to 17, the retail volume of the new energy passenger vehicle market was 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 58.0%, and the cumulative retail volume this year was 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The wholesale penetration rate was 56.4%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [7]. c. Industry News - Since the official suspension of CATL's Jiangxi Yichun Jianxiawo mining area on August 10, the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industrial chain [8]. - On August 18, Lanxiao Technology won the bid for the adsorption system of the expansion and renovation project of the comprehensive utilization of old brine for lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake of Guotou Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid amount of 35.7712 million yuan, which will have a positive impact on the company's development in the salt - lake lithium extraction industry [9]. - On August 15, CATL's Jianxiawo mining area suspended production due to the expiration of the mining license, which will directly affect the price of lithium carbonate. Yichun local mines are required to re - apply before September 30 this year [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content mainly lists the names of various data charts, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, etc., without specific data descriptions [10][13][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the upward space is restricted by the contradiction between supply and demand. Supply disturbances push up costs, but demand resilience is questionable, and capital sentiment dominates the market. There is a risk of a high - level correction if demand - side restocking falls short of expectations in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 8, the price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract rose significantly to 76,960 yuan/ton, a 6.45% increase from the previous day; the basis weakened significantly to - 5,710 yuan/ton, widening by 4,560 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest exceeded 320,000 lots, a 10.65% increase, and the trading volume increased by 16.82% to 896,000 lots [1]. 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.26% and 1.12% respectively during the week, strengthening the raw material cost support. Although the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained flat at 63.92%, the suspension of production at Ningde's Jiaxiaowo Mine and the slowdown of Pilbara's expansion in Australia strengthened the bullish sentiment on the supply side [2]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials continued to rise, with power - type lithium iron phosphate rising 0.86% to 32,850 yuan/ton. However, the demand for new energy vehicles weakened marginally, with new energy retail sales in July decreasing by 10% to 1.003 million vehicles, and the momentum for restocking in the peak season remains to be verified [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased slightly by 0.49% to 142,418 tons. The increased inquiry activity in the spot market and the restocking expectation in the middle of the industrial chain provided short - term support for prices [2]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - The short - term trend of the lithium carbonate futures main contract may continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the upward space is restricted by the contradiction between supply and demand. Supply disturbances push up costs, but demand resilience is questionable, and capital sentiment dominates. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, attention should be paid to the implementation of mining policies in Jiangxi and the production fulfillment of cathode materials in mid - to - late August. If restocking on the demand side falls short of expectations, there is a risk of a high - level correction [3]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On August 8, the price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 76,960 yuan/ton, a 6.45% increase from the previous day; the basis was - 5,710 yuan/ton, a significant weakening. The open interest and trading volume increased significantly. The prices of lithium carbonate, lithium concentrate, and cathode materials showed different degrees of change, while the prices of some batteries remained stable [5]. 3.5 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On August 8, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,961 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,012 yuan/ton from the previous working day. With the increase in the production plans of downstream cathode materials and battery cell enterprises in August, the market procurement demand showed a warming trend, and the inquiry activity increased significantly. The expected short - term supply tightening and the approaching peak demand season increased the probability of a short - term price increase [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 31, the national passenger car new energy market retail sales were 1.003 million vehicles, a 14% increase year - on - year but a 10% decrease from the previous month. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 54.7%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by manufacturers was 1.179 million vehicles, a 25% increase year - on - year but a 4% decrease from the previous month [7]. - **Industry News**: In July, driven by the national "anti - involution" policy, the photovoltaic and lithium - battery sectors adjusted rapidly, and funds flowed in, driving up the futures prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. The lithium carbonate futures main contract rose from a low of 58,400 yuan/ton on June 23 to a high of 80,520 yuan/ton on July 25, with a maximum increase of 37.88% [8].

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The current market shows a weak supply - demand balance. The supply - side capacity utilization is rising, while the demand - side experiences a seasonal decline in new energy vehicle sales but an enhanced long - term demand expectation from emerging applications. The rapid convergence of the basis indicates a narrowing of the spot - futures arbitrage space, and the continuous increase in open interest implies intensified divergence. The market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with the core suppressing factors being the mainly rigid demand in the spot market and the expected resumption of mines in Jiangxi. However, the downside of the market may be supported by technical buying and long - term demand prospects [3] Summary by Section 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On August 6, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 1,780 yuan/ton to 69,620 yuan/ton. The basis weakened significantly, narrowing from 3,810 yuan/ton to 2,030 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract increased by 11.08% to 257,770 lots, reaching a recent high, with intense long - short competition. The trading volume decreased slightly by 2.71% to 425,359 lots, and market activity cooled slightly [1][5] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The weekly capacity utilization of lithium carbonate increased by 1.72 percentage points to 63.92%, driven by the increased production of the salt lake lithium extraction process. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable. In the long - term, a 1.35 - billion - yuan solid - state battery project in Sichuan's Ganmei Industrial Park passed the environmental assessment in late July, which may force traditional lithium salt enterprises to upgrade their technologies. Downstream demand was divided. In July, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 17% month - on - month to 789,000 units. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.18% month - on - month, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 0.48%. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons, with continuous destocking for two weeks but at a slower pace [2][5] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The prices of the main contract of lithium carbonate, basis, open interest, trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate, spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate on August 6, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous day or previous period are presented in a table, along with the capacity utilization and inventory changes of lithium carbonate and the prices of some battery cells [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotation**: On August 6, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 70,731 yuan/ton, down 257 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,950 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,850 yuan/ton, both down 250 yuan/ton. In August, the procurement demand in the market showed a warming trend, but actual transactions were mainly rigid demand due to the strong basis in the spot market. Downstream enterprises remained cautious and did not show obvious inventory restocking behavior. Information on mines in Jiangxi has not been officially confirmed [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: According to the Passenger Car Association data on July 30, from July 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 789,000 units, a 15% year - on - year increase but a 17% month - on - month decrease. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 54.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.258 million units, a 31% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 816,000 units, a 17% year - on - year increase but a 20% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 54.2%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 7.264 million units, a 35% year - on - year increase [7] - **Industry News**: In 2025, the humanoid robot market exploded, with a large number of capital inflows. On July 22, Hive Energy's chairman revealed that the company was promoting the R & D and mass production of solid - state batteries, planning to trial - produce the first - generation 140Ah semi - solid - state battery on its 2.3GWh semi - solid mass - production line in Q4 2025, which would be supplied to BMW MINI's next - generation models in 2027. Recently, a 1.35 - billion - yuan solid - state lithium battery project in Sichuan's Ganmei Industrial Park passed the environmental assessment [8][9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, and battery cell prices, along with their data sources [10][14][16][18][20][23][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that lithium carbonate futures prices have fallen below 70,000 yuan/ton, with a closing price of 68,900 yuan/ton on August 1, reflecting a weekly decline of 5.85% [1] - The domestic lithium carbonate production in July exceeded 80,000 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 4%, primarily due to significant recovery in spodumene production and the release of recycling capacity [3] - Demand for lithium carbonate is under pressure, with retail sales of new energy vehicles in July declining by 17% month-on-month, and the prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showing slight decreases [3] Group 2 - The market outlook suggests that lithium carbonate prices are likely to remain weak in the short term, with a focus on the production changes of mica and salt lake resources, which could influence price movements [3] - Current market conditions indicate high supply and inventory levels for lithium carbonate, with limited support for prices due to declining demand growth [4] - The potential for price increases in the future may depend on the implementation of anti-involution policies, resource clearing in the upstream sector, and the resolution of price wars within the industry [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited. Supply - side disturbances and anti - involution policy sentiment have led to the recent rebound, but high inventory and weak terminal demand suppress the price space. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, it may show a wide - range volatile pattern. If the compliance progress of Jiangxi mining enterprises is faster than expected or the retail of new energy vehicles weakens rapidly, the price may face a callback pressure [4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On July 25, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, hitting the daily limit compared with the previous trading day. The basis weakened to - 9,920 yuan/ton, and the spot price discount to the futures further widened [2] - The position of the main contract increased from 362,054 lots on July 18 to 491,088 lots on July 25, an increase of 35.6%. The market divergence intensified, with both short - hedging and long - speculation forces entering the market. The trading volume decreased from 1.77 million lots to 1.2 million lots week - on - week, and the trading activity declined marginally [2] b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable, but the compliance issue of lithium mining licenses in Yichun, Jiangxi triggered expectations of supply tightening. If the mining right review is not completed on time, production capacity may be limited. The weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased slightly by 0.5 percentage points to 62.2%. Coupled with the maintenance and shutdown of some production lines of enterprises such as Jiangte Motor and Zangge Mining, short - term supply - side disturbances were strengthened [3] - **Demand side**: The prices of cathode materials continued the slow upward trend. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 240 yuan to 33,495 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.47% to 53,250 yuan/ton. The retail of new energy vehicles decreased by 12% month - on - month in July, and the terminal demand showed seasonal weakness. The prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate battery cells were basically flat, and downstream replenishment was still mainly based on rigid demand, lacking explosive drivers [3] - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate has increased for four consecutive weeks to 143,170 physical tons, and the warehouse receipt pressure has further accumulated, with a month - on - month increase of 0.39% [3] c. Market Summary - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited. Supply - side disturbances and anti - involution policy sentiment have led to the recent rebound, but high inventory and weak terminal demand suppress the price space. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual impact of the Jiangxi mining right review progress on supply and the downstream acceptance of high prices. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, it may show a wide - range volatile pattern. If the compliance progress of Jiangxi mining enterprises is faster than expected or the retail of new energy vehicles weakens rapidly, the price may face a callback pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From July 25 to July 28, the main contract of lithium carbonate decreased from 80,520 yuan/ton to 73,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.19%. The basis increased from - 9,920 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 98.29%. The position of the main contract decreased from 491,088 lots to 378,472 lots, a decrease of 22.93%. The trading volume decreased from 1,203,424 lots to 1,005,395 lots, a decrease of 16.46%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 70,600 yuan/ton to 72,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.33%. The market price of spodumene concentrate remained unchanged at 745 yuan/ton, and the market price of lepidolite concentrate increased from 850 yuan/ton to 890 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.71%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from 53,000 yuan/ton to 53,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47%. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from 116,595 yuan/ton to 116,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34%. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from 33,255 yuan/ton to 33,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72% [6] - From July 18 to July 25, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased from 62.70% to 62.20%, a decrease of 0.80%. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased from 142,620 physical tons to 143,170 physical tons, an increase of 0.39%. The prices of various types of battery cells remained basically unchanged [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotations - On July 28, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,737 yuan/ton, a increase of 991 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,500 - 75,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,900 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,900 - 72,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 71,700 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. At the beginning of this week, the lithium carbonate futures market dropped sharply, and the main contract hit the daily limit. This price fluctuation was mainly affected by two factors: on the one hand, it was driven by the linkage effect of the general decline in the prices of other commodities; on the other hand, the news of a mine in Jiangxi continued to disturb the market sentiment. After the futures price dropped significantly, the downstream procurement demand was significantly released, the market inquiry activity increased significantly, and the increase in trading volume pushed the spot price center to move up steadily [7] b. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on July 23, from July 1 - 20, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 537,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% compared with the same period in July last year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 54.9%, and the cumulative retail volume since this year was 6.006 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32%. From July 1 - 20, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles of Chinese passenger car manufacturers was 514,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% compared with the same period in July last year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles of Chinese passenger car manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume since this year was 6.962 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36% [8] c. Industry News - On July 24, large - scale orders were finalized, large - scale funds were quickly deployed, investment and financing and IPOs were booming, and concept stocks set off a daily limit wave. In 2025, the trillion - level humanoid robot market exploded, and various capitals poured into the humanoid robot track [10] - On July 24, according to the SMM weekly review, the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise this week. On the supply side, the resources of cobalt intermediates were relatively concentrated, and mining enterprises still suspended quotations. After the customs data were released on the weekend, the import volume of cobalt intermediates in China in June dropped significantly, further strengthening the market's expectation of raw material shortage. Traders continued to raise their quotations and reported that there were a small number of transactions of mainstream brands at around 12.5 - 12.6 US dollars per pound. On the demand side, smelters faced difficulties such as inverted production costs and weak downstream demand. Most enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories. Some smelters with low inventories reported that the current cost inversion was too serious. If they could not purchase low - cost cobalt intermediates, they would choose to purchase other cobalt raw materials for substitution or choose to reduce production or even stop production. Overall, affected by the extension policy of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, China's cobalt intermediates will still face raw material shortages in the future, and the price has upward momentum, but it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of downstream demand by the increase in raw material prices [10] - On July 24, according to the SMM weekly review of the lithium - ion battery graphite market, the integration of anode enterprises was accelerating, and the price of the graphitization market was in a stalemate [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain a low - level oscillation. Although there are some marginal improvement signals in the fundamentals, the high inventory and weak actual procurement limit the upward space of prices, while the cost and expected improvement support the downside [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On July 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 63,280 yuan/ton, down 1.25% from the previous trading day; the basis rose from - 1,880 yuan/ton to - 880 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.63% to 325,000 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 17.4% to 348,000 lots, indicating a decline in market trading activity [2]. b. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply side: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.59% month - on - month to 61.8%, and there is still medium - term supply pressure; the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable, not significantly disturbing the cost [3]. - Demand side: The prices of downstream cathode materials rose steadily. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.15% month - on - month to 30,705 yuan/ton, and ternary materials also rose slightly. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in June reached 52.7%. The cell prices remained stable, and downstream manufacturers' acceptance of high - priced lithium salts was limited, with procurement mainly for rigid restocking [3]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased to 138,347 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, with five consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [3]. c. Price Trend Judgment - The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain a low - level oscillation. Although the contradiction is weakened under the double increase of supply and demand, the inventory suppression still exists. The spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the steady growth of new energy vehicle sales in June supports the demand expectation. However, although there is partial production reduction on the supply side, the release of new production capacity and high inventory pressure limit the price rebound space [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 4, 2025, compared with July 3, the main contract of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.25% to 63,280 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 53.19% to - 880 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.63% to 325,288 lots; the trading volume decreased by 17.4% to 347,729 lots; the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.32% to 62,400 yuan/ton. The prices of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [6]. - Compared with June 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.59% to 61.8%; the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.1% to 138,347 tons. The prices of various types of cells remained unchanged [6]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotations - On July 4, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,240 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 186 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 200 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,700 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 200 yuan/ton. Affected by the improved demand expectation in July, the spot price stopped falling and rebounded slightly. However, the supply is still at a high level, and the inventory pressure remains [7]. b. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association on July 3, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.071 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month increase of 4%, with a retail penetration rate of 52.7%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 5.429 million, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 1.259 million, a year - on - year increase of 28% and a month - on - month increase of 3%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 50.9%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 6.465 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [8]. c. Industry News - On July 4, Zangge Mining's subsidiary participated in the investment - holding of Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., which received the "Construction Project Construction Permit" for the "Mami Cuo Salt Lake Mining Area Lithium Boron Mine Project", which is beneficial for expanding the company's salt lake lithium extraction capacity [9][10]. - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned to upgrade and transform its 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line and invest 120.7 million yuan to build a 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical transformation project, with a shutdown and transformation time of about 6 months [10]. - On June 24, the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project estimated a total investment of 4.537 billion yuan, with an annual production of 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate and 17,000 tons of borax as a by - product [10]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, cathode precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [11][14][16]