产业与第三方意见分歧，碳酸锂后期阻力或将增大 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 孙皓 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月25日，碳酸锂主力合约小幅回落至123520 元/吨，较前一日下跌1200元/吨，跌幅0.96%。基差走强至-17720元/吨， 较前一日上升2200元/吨，涨幅11.04%。 持仓与成交 ：持仓量显著收缩至607187手，较前一日减少40179手，降幅 6.21%；成交量小幅收缩至924823手，较前一日下降24183手，降幅2.55%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿价格大幅走高至12330元/吨，较前一日上涨9.89%； 锂云母精矿价格小幅上扬至5975元/吨，涨幅1.88%。产能利用率稳定在 83.52%。新疆有色集团10万吨锂盐项目进展可能增加长期供给，但当前原 料成本上涨推高生产成本，上游锂盐厂以保长协为主，散单成交稀少。 需求端 ：下游产品价格普遍上行，动力型三元材料上涨0.88%至149300元/ 吨，动力型磷酸铁锂上涨2.0%至42045元/吨。新能源汽车零售销量同比增 长1%，渗透率达60.6%，但批发同比下降10%，显示需求分化。电芯价格受 ...

市场热度持续吸引资金，碳酸锂基差修复需求强烈 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月23日，碳酸锂主力合约价格大幅走高至 120,360元/吨，较前一交易日上涨5,980元/吨，涨幅5.23%。基差走弱， 从-13,580元/吨降至-17,560元/吨，降幅29.31%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：原料成本支撑增强，锂辉石精矿市场价从2025年12月22日的 11,025元/吨升至12月23日的11,145元/吨，锂云母精矿从5,565元/吨升至 5,750元/吨。据12月11日资讯，上游锂盐厂以保长协为主，散单成交稀 少，叠加产能利用率稳定在83.52%，显示供给整体偏紧但未显著扩张。 需求端 ：下游正极材料价格小幅上扬，动力型三元材料从147,100元/吨升 至147,300元/吨，动力型磷酸铁锂从40,612.5元/吨升至40,735元/吨。但 12月17日乘联会数据显示，12月1-14日新能源车零售同比降4%，批发同比 降15%，需求端整体疲软；资讯显示下游材料厂对高价持谨慎态度，采购以 刚需和长协加量为主，叠加固态电池技术推进可能影响中长期需求预期 ...

江西锂矿再生环评事端，期货盘面大幅抢跑上行 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：碳酸锂主力合约价格2025年12月22日收于114380元/ 吨，涨幅2.68%，价格小幅走高。基差从-11800元/吨走弱至-13580元/吨， 基差持续走弱。 持仓与成交 ：持仓量12月22日小幅增至671889手，增幅0.46%，成交量从 928963手增至1007441手，增幅8.45%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：供给端受原料成本支撑增强，锂辉石精矿价格上涨至11025元/ 吨，涨幅2.08%，而锂云母精矿价格持平于5565元/吨。产能利用率维持 83.52%稳定。进口方面，2025年11月锂辉石进口量环比增长12%至72.9万实 物吨，主要增量来自澳大利亚，但津巴布韦和尼日利亚来源减少，暗示供 应结构性偏紧。同时，万润新能升级生产线以生产高压实磷酸铁锂，可能 提升工艺效率但短期供给增量有限。 需求端 ：动力型三元材料价格上涨至147100元/吨，涨幅0.41%，动力型磷 酸铁锂从40285元/吨上涨至40612.5元/吨，涨幅0.81%。下游新能源汽车销 量环比增长1%，但同比小幅 ...

主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月17日，碳酸锂主力合约价格大幅走高至 108620元/吨，较前一日上涨8020元/吨，涨幅7.97%。基差显著走弱， 从-4800元/吨扩大至-11820元/吨，变化-7020元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量小幅扩大0.38%，至668589手。成交量急剧 扩大93.97%，至1158611手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 锂矿消息点燃市场，但回归理性后有短期回调风险 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿价格稳定在9665元/吨，锂云母精矿价格维持在5175 元/吨。碳酸锂产能利用率从2025年12月5日的75.34%升至2025年12月12日 的83.52%，增幅10.86%，表明供给端产能扩张。资讯显示，李家沟锂矿项 目于2025年8月末达产，年产精矿约18万吨，强化了供给稳定性；江西宜春 采矿权注销事件虽引发担忧，但实际不影响当前供应，因相关矿山已停 采。 需求端 ：下游正极材料价格小幅上扬，动力型三元材料从146000元/吨升 至146300元/吨，动力型磷酸铁锂从39845元/吨升至40140元/吨。资讯显 示，12月初新能源车销量 ...

短期矛盾放缓，碳酸锂高位盘整静待契机 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月16日，碳酸锂主力合约价格小幅回落至 100600元/吨，较12月15日下跌0.46%。基差走强，12月16日为-4800元/ 吨，较12月15日收窄1960元。 持仓与成交 ：持仓量继续扩大，12月16日达666027手，较12月15日增加 3842手。成交量收缩，12月16日为597317手，较2025年12月15日减少 102284手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿价格2025年12月16日小幅走高至9665元/吨，较2025 年12月15日上涨97元，而锂云母精矿价格维持稳定在5175元/吨。产能利用 率显著提升，2025年12月12日达83.52%，较2025年12月5日的75.34%上升 8.18个百分点。资讯显示，伴随新产线投产及下游需求拉动，12月国内碳 酸锂产量预计环比增长约3%，供应端整体稳步扩张。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙 ...

碳酸锂诸多谜题未解，十万下方窄幅波动蓄势待发 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月15日，碳酸锂主力合约价格小幅回落至 97720元/吨，较12月12日下跌1160元/吨。基差走强，从12月12日的-6380 元/吨收窄至-3720元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：持仓量小幅扩大，12月15日增至636384手，较12月12日的 634283手增加2101手；成交量同步扩大至757689手，较前值744190手增加 13499手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿市场价于12月15日小幅走高至9410元/吨，较12月12 日上涨350元/吨；锂云母精矿价格维持稳定在4990元/吨。产能利用率大幅 上升，12月12日达83.52%，较12月5日的75.34%提升8.18个百分点，主因新 产线投产及盐场工艺优化推动供应增长。资讯显示，12月国内碳酸锂产量 预计环比增长约3%，供应端压力持续。 需求端 ：下游需求整体持稳但分化明显。正极材料价格小幅上扬，12月15 日动力型三元材料涨至145800元/吨，动力型磷酸铁锂升至39680元/吨。电 芯排产高位，但乘联会数据 ...

一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月10日，碳酸锂主力合约收于95980元/吨，上 涨3.43%；基差从-500元/吨走弱至-3680元/吨，变化-3180元。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量从12月9日的575421手增至605453手，增加 30032手，增幅5.22%，持仓量扩大；成交量从512215手增至620935手，增 加108720手，增幅21.23%，成交量显著扩大，反映市场活跃度提升。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：供给保持稳定增长，2025年12月5日碳酸锂产能利用率维持在 75.34%，与11月28日持平；锂辉石精矿市场价稳定在8930元/吨，锂云母精 矿市场价稳定在4990元/吨。资讯显示，部分新产线逐步投产，预计12月国 内碳酸锂产量环比增长约3%；同时，川能动力项目于2025年8月末达到年产 18万吨精矿设计产能，青海锦泰锂业技改项目旨在提升效率，强化供给端 弹性。 需求端 ：需求整体持稳但边际趋缓，2025年12月10日动力型三元材料价格 从144700元/吨微涨至144850元/吨，动力型磷酸铁锂价格从39095元/吨微 跌至39 ...

碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：12月9日，碳酸锂主力合约价格小幅回落至92800元/ 吨，较前一日下跌2.15%；基差走强，从-2240元/吨升至-500元/吨，增幅 77.68%。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量收缩至575421手，较前一日减少17708手， 降幅2.99%；成交量收缩至512215手，减少87152手，降幅14.54%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿和锂云母精矿价格维持稳定，12月9日分别为8930元/ 吨和4990元/吨；产能利用率持平于75.34%。据行业资讯，新产线逐步投 产，叠加下游需求拉动，预计12月国内碳酸锂产量环比增长约3%，供给压 力小幅增加。 碳酸锂高位运行修复基差，谁会是下一轮点火契机 需求端 ：新能源汽车需求持续强劲，11月新能源乘用车零售同比增长7%， 批发同比增长20%；电芯及正极材料排产维持高位，但环比略有下滑，动力 型三元材料价格小幅上扬至144700元/吨。 库存与仓单 ：碳酸锂库存持续去化，从11月28日115968吨降至12月5日 113602吨，减少2366吨，降幅2.04%。 价格走势判断 一、日度市场总结 未来一到 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the lithium carbonate market on December 3, 2025, and predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the next one to two weeks. The supply is expanding steadily, the demand is relatively stable, the inventory is being depleted but at a slower pace, and the market is divided, resulting in limited downward space but insufficient upward driving force for the price. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 90,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton, and investors need to pay attention to the progress of the annual long - term agreement negotiation and inventory changes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 3, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped slightly to 93,660 yuan/ton, a 3.0% decrease from the previous day, continuing the oscillating downward trend; the basis strengthened significantly to 440 yuan/ton, a 2,900 - yuan increase from the previous day [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract expanded to 562,836 lots, an increase of 10,597 lots from the previous day, indicating increased market participation; the trading volume expanded significantly to 643,323 lots, an increase of 189,033 lots from the previous day, with accelerated capital inflow [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: On December 3, 2025, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,180 yuan/ton and 4,990 yuan/ton respectively. The capacity utilization rate was stable at 75.34%. As of November 28, the Lijiagou lithium mine project of Chuanneng Power had basically reached full production. With the gradual commissioning of new production lines, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate output in December will increase by about 3% month - on - month, and the supply side will expand slightly [2]. - **Demand Side**: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on December 3, 2025, in November, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 7% year - on - year and the wholesale sales increased by 20% year - on - year, with the cumulative sales increasing by 20% - 29% year - on - year, supporting a bright demand expectation in December. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.59% to 171,000 yuan/ton, the price of ternary materials remained stable, but the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropped slightly by 0.04% to 39,485 yuan/ton. The information shows that the cell production schedule is at a high level but slightly declined month - on - month. Downstream material manufacturers are taking a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the transaction price is concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term agreement negotiation focuses on next year's price and procurement volume [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: On December 3, 2025, the inventory dropped to 115,968 physical tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons from the previous week, continuing the de - stocking trend. It is expected that the de - stocking amplitude in December will slow down, but the overall supply - demand pattern is tight, especially in the energy storage market, which maintains a situation of strong supply and demand [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On December 3, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 93,660 yuan/ton, a 3.0% decrease from the previous day; the basis was 440 yuan/ton, a 117.89% increase from the previous day; the position of the main contract was 562,836 lots, a 1.92% increase from the previous day; the trading volume of the main contract was 643,323 lots, a 41.61% increase from the previous day. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained stable at 94,100 yuan/ton, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.59%, the price of power - type ternary materials remained stable, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropped slightly by 0.04% [5]. - From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 75.34%, the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.07% to 115,968 physical tons, the price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased by 2.37%, the price of 523 square ternary cells remained stable, the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained stable, the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained stable, and the price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 1.34% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Spot Market Quotation - On December 3, 2025, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 94,719 yuan/ton, a 145 - yuan decrease from the previous working day; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,500 - 96,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 94,350 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous working day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,000 - 92,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 91,900 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated downward, with the main contract in the range of 92,500 - 97,600 yuan/ton and a closing price of 93,700 yuan/ton. Affected by the news, the futures price on the disk dropped to 92,500 yuan/ton. Downstream material manufacturers are taking a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the actual market transaction price is mostly concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term agreement negotiation between upstream and downstream enterprises is still ongoing, with the focus of the game on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume. On the supply side, with the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the pull of downstream demand on production, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate output in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In terms of demand, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December is expected to be still bright; the energy storage market continues the situation of strong supply and demand, and the supply - tight pattern remains. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain at a high level in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. In general, against the background of steadily increasing supply and relatively stable overall demand, it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to be de - stocked in December, but the amplitude will be smaller than that in November [6]. 3.3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on December 3, 2025, from November 1 to 30, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.354 million, a 7% year - on - year increase and a 6% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 11.504 million, a 20% year - on - year increase; from November 1 to 30, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers were 1.72 million, a 20% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 13.777 million, a 29% year - on - year increase [6]. 3.3.3 Industry News - On November 28, 2025, Chuanneng Power (000155) mentioned in an institutional research that in terms of lithium batteries, the company holds the mining right of the Lijiagou lithium mine, with a proven ore resource reserve of 38.812 million tons, an average grade of 1.30%, a production scale of 1.05 million tons of raw ore per year, and an annual output of about 180,000 tons of concentrate. The project basically reached the designed production capacity at the end of August 2025 [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the price of lithium concentrate, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte, the price of ternary precursor, the price of ternary materials, the price of lithium iron phosphate, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, the inventory of lithium carbonate, and the selling price of cells, with data sources from iFinD, SMM, Shanghai Steel Union, and the R & D Department of Tonghui Futures [9][12][14][16][17][18][21][23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner, but the upside space is limited. The high capacity utilization rate on the supply side and the expected launch of lithium mine projects suppress the long - term price, while the accelerated spot destocking and the resilient demand for new energy vehicles support the near - month contracts. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the negative feedback risk caused by the poor cost - pressure transmission of downstream cell enterprises, and the price fluctuations may widen due to intensified year - end capital games [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes**: On November 12, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose slightly by 40 yuan to 86,580 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened from - 4,540 yuan/ton to - 4,380 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract increased slightly by 2,473 lots to 529,000 lots, and the trading volume rebounded significantly by 26.9% to 1,145,000 lots [1] - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: On November 12, the price of spodumene concentrate rose by 130 yuan to 7,995 yuan/ton, with continuous cost - side pressure. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased to 75.34%. Coupled with the progress of the 50,000 - ton lithium carbonate project of Dazhong Mining's Jiada Lithium Mine, the medium - term supply increase expectation suppressed market sentiment [2] - **Demand Side**: In October, 1.4 million new energy vehicles were retailed, a year - on - year increase of 17%, driving the demand for power batteries. The prices of cathode materials were stable with a slight increase. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose by 245 yuan to 36,605 yuan/ton, but the cell prices remained stable. Downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks. On November 7, the inventory decreased by 3,405 tons compared with October 31 to 124,000 tons, and the destocking speed accelerated [2] - **Market Summary**: In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate in a moderately strong manner, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback risk and price fluctuations [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The prices of the lithium carbonate main contract, basis, main - contract open interest, main - contract trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate all showed varying degrees of increase on November 12 compared with the previous day. The lithium mica concentrate market price remained unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory decreased. The prices of various types of cells remained stable [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotations**: On November 12, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated within a range. The market sentiment was high, and downstream material factories were cautious. The supply side had a high overall operating rate, and it was expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November would be roughly the same as that in October. The demand in the power and energy - storage markets was strong, and significant destocking of lithium carbonate was expected in November [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 to 31, the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market retail volume was 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail volume since the beginning of this year was 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The wholesale volume was 1.614 million, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume since the beginning of this year was 12.061 million, a year - on - year increase of 30% [7] - **Industry News** - On October 28, Dazhong Mining's "Jiada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources Mining Plan" passed the review of the Ministry of Natural Resources. After reaching full capacity, it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year, marking a step closer to obtaining the mining license [9] - On October 23, the overall price of the echelon market remained stable. The cost - side pressure, supply - side capacity release, and demand - side cautious purchasing formed a hedging effect [9] - According to the National Market Regulatory Administration, China is about to enter the stage of large - scale retirement of power batteries. In 2024, the domestic power - battery recycling volume exceeded 300,000 tons, corresponding to a market scale of over 48 billion yuan. It is expected that the domestic market scale will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030 [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [13][16][18]