1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the analysis of the lithium carbonate market. It shows that on March 27, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures market had significant price and trading volume changes. The supply - side has a tight supply expectation due to factors like the suspension of Zimbabwean mine shipments, while the demand - side has potential improvement from new vehicle models but is restricted by cautious downstream procurement. In the short - term, the lithium carbonate price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis 3.1.1 Main Contract and Basis On March 27, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose significantly to 168,440 yuan/ton, up 11,240 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a growth rate of 7.15%. The basis weakened to - 12,440 yuan/ton, widening by 8,240 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of - 196.19% [1][5]. 3.1.2 Position and Trading Volume The position of the main contract increased slightly by 0.51% on March 27. The trading volume expanded significantly to 324,620 lots, an increase of 63,690 lots from the previous day, with an increase rate of 24.41% [1][5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side On March 27, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 17,620 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.37%. The price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,400 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 73.46%, the same as the previous week. The suspension of Zimbabwean mine shipments led to an expectation of tight supply, while the expansion plan of the Atacama Salt Lake in Chile may increase medium - to - long - term supply, but there were no significant changes in short - term technology and operating rates, and salt factories had a strong sentiment of holding prices [2]. 3.2.2 Demand Side On March 27, 2026, the prices of downstream cathode materials rose slightly. The price of power ternary materials was reported at 184,250 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.27%, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate was reported at 55,475 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.66%. The battery cell price was generally stable. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased month - on - month, and the intensive release of new models may boost demand, but downstream material factories were cautious in procurement, only maintaining a small amount of rigid demand, and the progress of order negotiations was slow [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts Lithium carbonate inventory increased slightly. On March 27, 2026, it was 99,489 physical tons, an increase of 616 tons from 98,873 physical tons in the previous week, with an increase rate of 0.62%. The slight increase in inventory level reflected the intensification of supply - demand game, with the upstream's willingness to ship improving while the downstream's digestion was slow [2]. 3.3 Future Price Trend In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern. The supply side is affected by the uncertainty of Zimbabwean mine shipments and the support of lithium ore prices, forming an expectation of tight supply. The demand side may have marginal improvement due to the release of new models, but the cautious downstream procurement and the year - on - year decline in new energy vehicle sales limit the upward space. In addition, macro factors such as the geopolitical risk in the Middle East disturb market sentiment, and the slight increase in inventory highlights the supply - demand stalemate. Therefore, the short - term price will lack a clear direction and seek balance in volatility [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern in the next one to two weeks. The weak demand due to the decline in new energy vehicle sales and soft downstream material prices suppresses the upward momentum, while supply - side disturbances and a slight decrease in inventory provide support. Macro factors may increase volatility [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 - **主力合约与基差**: On March 23, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 149,040 yuan/ton, up 5,180 yuan/ton (3.6%) from March 20. The basis weakened to - 4,040 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10,180 yuan/ton from March 20 [1][42]. - **持仓与成交**: The position of the main contract shrank to 269,477 lots, a decrease of 7,101 lots (2.57%) from March 20. The trading volume also shrank to 228,178 lots, a decrease of 30,098 lots (11.65%) [1][42]. 产业链供需及库存变化分析 - **供给端**: The price of spodumene concentrate decreased by 2.31% on March 23 compared to March 20, and the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 8,600 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate was stable at 73.46%. The Zimbabwe event caused concerns about supply disruptions, while the approval of the Australian Atlantic Lithium project may increase medium - to - long - term supply [2][44]. - **需求端**: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. The power - type ternary material and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.71% and 1.14% respectively from March 20. From March 1 - 15, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 28% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 19% year - on - year. However, the purchasing sentiment of downstream material factories improved, and actual transactions were relatively active, supported by short - term inventory demand [2][44]. - **库存与仓单**: Lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased to 98,873 tons, a decrease of 86 tons (0.09%) from March 13 [2][45]. 价格走势判断 - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern. Weak demand from the decline in new energy vehicle sales and soft downstream material prices suppresses upward momentum, but supply - side disturbances and a slight decrease in inventory provide support. Macro factors may increase volatility [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On March 23, 2026, compared with March 20, the main contract of lithium carbonate increased by 3.6%, the basis decreased by 165.8%, the position of the main contract decreased by 2.57%, and the trading volume decreased by 11.65%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 3.33%, the price of spodumene concentrate decreased by 2.31%, the price of lepidolite concentrate remained unchanged, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 0.92%, the price of power - type ternary material decreased by 0.71%, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.14% [5]. - From March 20 to March 13, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73.46%, the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.09%, and most of the cell prices remained unchanged or changed slightly [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 现货市场报价 - On March 20, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot index continued to decline. The futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The position decreased by about 6,200 lots. In the spot market, the purchasing rhythm of downstream material factories slowed down, and the willingness of upstream lithium salt factories to sell single orders weakened. The overall trading activity decreased. Due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and crude oil price fluctuations, the market risk preference declined, and the industrial metal sector was under pressure. The unresolved lithium ore export ban in Zimbabwe provided bottom support for prices. In the short term, the lithium carbonate price may maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern [6]. 下游消费情况 - According to the Passenger Car Association data, from March 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 285,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 28% and a month - on - month increase of 36%. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 1.345 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 26%. The wholesale sales were 325,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 19% and a month - on - month increase of 47%. The cumulative wholesale sales since the beginning of this year were 1.914 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [7]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Chart - The content mainly lists various data charts related to the lithium carbonate industry chain, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the price of lithium concentrate, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [8][10][14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, as the supply is supported by the export ban in Zimbabwe and upstream reluctance to sell, but the demand is weak due to the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream procurement, and the inventory reduction provides limited support while macro - geopolitical risks suppress market sentiment [3][57] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 20, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose slightly to 143,860 yuan/ton, a 0.88% increase from the previous day, continuing the recent volatile trend. The basis weakened significantly to 6,140 yuan/ton, narrowing by 7,260 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 54.18% [1][53] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position volume shrank by 2.18% to 276,578 lots, a decrease of 6,167 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume shrank by 10.5% to 258,276 lots, a decrease of 30,295 lots from the previous day, indicating a significant decline in trading activity [1][54] 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: On March 20, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 16,235 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase from the previous day, while the price of lepidolite concentrate dropped significantly by 6.01% to 8,600 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 73.46%. The export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe has not been lifted, and the import volume of spodumene fluctuated from January to February, increasing the reluctance of upstream lithium salt plants to sell and reducing the willingness to sell single orders, constraining the supply [2][55] - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. On March 20, 2026, the price of power ternary materials dropped by 0.55% to 182,250 yuan/ton, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate dropped by 1.57% to 53,290 yuan/ton. The cell prices were basically stable, with only the square lithium iron phosphate cell rising slightly by 1.08%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, in the first half of March, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 28% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 19% year - on - year. The demand was weak, and the procurement rhythm of downstream material plants slowed down, with only a few low - inventory enterprises maintaining rigid demand replenishment [2][55] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 0.09% to 98,873 physical tons, a decrease of 86 tons from the previous week, continuing the inventory reduction trend. The overall inventory pressure in the market was relieved, and the upstream reluctance to sell and the downstream inventory preparation until early April led to a shortage of circulating goods [2][56] 1.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The supply side is supported by the Zimbabwe export ban and upstream reluctance to sell, but the cost drive is weakened by the decline in lepidolite price and import fluctuations. The demand side remains weak due to the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream procurement, and the macro - geopolitical risks (such as the Middle East situation) suppress market sentiment. The slight inventory reduction provides limited support, but there is a lack of strong unilateral drive. Overall, the price will fluctuate within the current range, with the upside limited by insufficient demand and the downside buffered by supply constraints [3][57] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Various price data of lithium - related products on March 20, 2026, are provided, including the main contract of lithium carbonate, basis, position, trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lepidolite concentrate market price, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, power lithium iron phosphate, etc., along with their price changes and rates compared with the previous day or previous week [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.1 Spot Market Quotation - On March 20, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot index continued to decline. The futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main contract once reached 148,000 yuan/ton after the opening, and the highest in the noon reached over 150,000 yuan/ton, then fell under pressure and closed at around 144,000 yuan/ton. As of the close, the position volume decreased by about 6,200 lots compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, after the downstream material plants' concentrated replenishment the previous day, the procurement rhythm slowed down significantly today. Some enterprises' raw material inventories have been prepared until early April, and only a few low - inventory enterprises maintained rigid demand and purchased at low prices. Upstream lithium salt plants were less willing to sell single orders due to the continuous decline in prices, and some manufacturers still insisted on quotes above 160,000 yuan/ton. The overall trading activity in the market decreased compared with the previous trading day. At the macro level, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased and the crude oil price fluctuated, leading to a decline in market risk preference and overall pressure on the industrial metal sector. On the supply side, the export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe has not been lifted, providing bottom - support for the price. In general, in the short term, the lithium carbonate price may maintain a wide - range volatile pattern under the game between bearish macro sentiment and supply - side constraints [6] 3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on March 18, from March 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 285,000 units, a 28% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in March last year, and a 36% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1.345 million units, a 26% year - on - year decrease. From March 1 - 15, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers were 325,000 units, a 19% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in March last year, and a 47% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 1.914 million units, a 10% year - on - year decrease [7] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Multiple data charts are provided, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [8][10][12][14][16][18][20][21]

Group 1: Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes - The carbonated lithium futures main contract closed at 150,120 yuan/ton on March 18, 2026, a slight decrease of 3.35% from 155,320 yuan/ton on March 17, 2026 [1][5][34][55]. - The basis was 5,880 yuan/ton on March 18, 2026, a significant strengthening of 119.4% from 2,680 yuan/ton on the previous day [1][5][34][55]. - The main contract's open interest was 307,422 lots on March 18, 2026, a contraction of 0.46% from the previous day. The trading volume was 205,889 lots, an expansion of 18.71% from the previous day [1][5][35][55]. Group 2: Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes Supply Side - The market price of spodumene concentrate was 16,705 yuan/ton on March 18, 2026, a decline of 5.19% from the previous day. The price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,150 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium was 73.46% on March 13, 2026, the same as the previous week. Upstream lithium salt producers were reluctant to sell and had a clear attitude of supporting prices, with a weak willingness to sell scattered orders, indicating a tight supply side [2][5][37][55]. Demand Side - The market price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 156,000 yuan/ton on March 18, 2026, a slight decline of 1.27% from the previous day. The prices of downstream cathode materials such as power - type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, while the cell prices remained stable. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on February 11, 2026, the retail and wholesale of new energy vehicles increased year - on - year, but the cumulative retail decreased year - on - year. Downstream material producers adopted a strategy of purchasing at low prices, which drove the restocking demand and increased the trading activity [2][5][38][55]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The carbonate lithium inventory was 98,959 physical tons on March 13, 2026, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous week, indicating a slight reduction in inventory, which reflected the support of the demand - side restocking behavior for destocking [2][5][42][56]. Group 3: Price Trend Judgment - It is expected that the carbonate lithium futures price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the next one to two weeks. The supply side is supported by the upstream's price - supporting behavior, and the decline in raw material costs may relieve production pressure but does not significantly increase supply elasticity. The new energy vehicle sales data on the demand side is divided. The downstream's low - price purchasing provides support, but the year - on - year decline in cumulative retail sales shows the uncertainty of demand recovery. The slight decrease in inventory indicates a relatively balanced supply - demand situation, and the market sentiment is cautious. In summary, the carbonate lithium market lacks a one - sided driving factor in the short term, and the oscillating trend may continue. Investors need to closely monitor the changes in raw material prices and the downstream purchasing rhythm [3][44][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side capacity utilization rate has significantly decreased and inventory has slightly declined, providing support. The recovery of the waste recycling market has led to a marginal improvement in demand. However, the year - to - date decline in new energy vehicle sales and the cautious procurement of downstream material manufacturers limit the upside potential. The weakening basis may attract arbitrage trading. Overall, the tight supply - demand structure dominates the short - term price resilience, but the uncertainty of demand needs continuous monitoring [3][51][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 9, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 161,060 yuan/ton, up 4,900 yuan/ton or 3.14% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly to - 7,260 yuan/ton [1][35][49]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract was 330,671 lots on March 9, 2026, a decrease of 3,232 lots or 0.97% from the previous trading day. The trading volume increased to 402,478 lots, an increase of 174,254 lots [1][36][37]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 73.46%, a significant contraction compared to 85.72% on February 27, 2026. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained flat at 16,600 yuan/ton and 9,000 yuan/ton respectively. Although the waste lithium - battery recycling market resumed production in early March 2026, the overall supply was tight [2][50]. - **Demand Side**: According to the Passenger Car Association data on February 11, 2026, from February 1 - 8, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 42% year - on - year and wholesale increased by 39%, but the year - to - date cumulative retail sales decreased by 14%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 2.13%, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.23%. Downstream material manufacturers were cautious in purchasing at low prices, and most remained on the sidelines, with overall weak demand [2][47][50]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 100,093 physical tons on February 27, 2026, to 99,373 physical tons on March 6, 2026, a decrease of 720 tons or 0.72% [2][45][50]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The significant decrease in supply - side capacity utilization and the slight decrease in inventory provide support, along with the marginal improvement in demand brought about by the recovery of the waste recycling market. However, the year - to - date decline in new energy vehicle sales and the cautious procurement of downstream material manufacturers limit the upside potential. The weakening basis may attract arbitrage trading [3][51][52].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 6, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate slightly increased to 156,160 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan or 0.19% from the previous trading day, while the basis weakened to 640 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 31.91% from the previous day [1][34][35]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: On March 6, 2026, the open interest expanded to 333,903 lots, an increase of 1,529 lots or 0.46% from the previous day, and the trading volume shrank to 228,224 lots, a decrease of 72,281 lots or 24.05% from the previous day [1][36][37]. *** Industry Chain Supply, Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On March 6, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 16,600 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,000 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased to 73.46%, down 12.26 percentage points from the previous week. Upstream lithium salt producers ended maintenance but were reluctant to sell and eager to hold up prices, with weak willingness to sell spot orders. Overseas mines held up prices, resulting in light overall trading [2][28][38]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials slightly declined, with ternary materials dropping to 182,050 yuan/ton and lithium iron phosphate dropping to 54,810 yuan/ton on March 6, 2026. Although the sales volume of new energy vehicles from February 1 - 8 increased year - on - year, the sales volume in the first quarter fell short of expectations, affecting the procurement rhythm of downstream battery cell manufacturers. Material manufacturers showed strong procurement willingness and increased production schedules, and were eager to replenish stocks when prices corrected, but overall, they were cautious and mainly adopted a wait - and - see approach, with light actual trading [2][31][39]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of lithium carbonate slightly decreased to 99,373 physical tons on March 6, 2026, a decrease of 720 tons or 0.72% from the previous week, indicating slow inventory depletion. Warehouse receipt data were not directly provided, but the inventory decrease might reflect a reduction in warehouse receipt pressure [2][31][40]. *** Price Trend Judgment It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side capacity utilization rate is gradually recovering despite the decline, and the reluctance of upstream producers to sell supports prices. On the demand side, although new energy vehicle sales are growing, they fall short of expectations, and downstream procurement is cautious with limited restocking demand. The inventory is slightly decreasing but the depletion speed is slow. The overall market shows a supply - demand game with a lack of a clear directional driver [3][31][41]

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 3, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped significantly to 150,860 yuan/ton, a 12.3% decline from March 2. The basis strengthened notably to 16,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 18,160 yuan from the previous day [1][63]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract shrank by 10.24% to 339,604 lots, while the trading volume expanded by 96.03% to 445,115 lots [1][64]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On March 3, the price of spodumene concentrate rose 5.91% to 19,075 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate stayed at 85.72%. Upstream lithium salt producers showed strong reluctance to sell, leading to a tight supply [2][65]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream products such as power ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate dropped by 2.34% and 4.72% respectively. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on February 11, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year, but the cumulative year-on-year sales decreased. Downstream material manufacturers' purchasing intention increased when prices fell, but overall, there was strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][65]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 100,093 physical tons, showing a decreasing trend. Although the warehouse receipt data was not updated, the inventory decline indicated a de - stocking trend [2][66]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern. The supply side is supported by lithium ore costs but limited by producers' reluctance to sell. The demand side is supported by the growth of new energy vehicle sales but restricted by cautious downstream purchasing. The continuous decline in inventory eases the oversupply pressure. The overall market sentiment is bearish, but the low price may attract bargain - hunting [3][67].

Group 1: Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main contract of carbonate lithium rose from RMB 152,640/ton on February 13, 2026 to RMB 164,120/ton on February 24, 2026, a 7.52% increase, indicating a slight price increase The basis weakened from -RMB 8,840/ton to -RMB 20,320/ton (the negative value expanded), showing that the futures price rose faster than the spot price [1][30] - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest increased from 342,226 lots to 365,180 lots on February 24, 2026, a 6.71% growth, indicating an expansion of market participation The trading volume decreased from 300,191 lots to 214,364 lots, a 28.59% contraction, suggesting reduced trading activities, possibly due to post - holiday or market wait - and - see sentiment [1][30] Group 2: Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium decreased from 87.14% on February 6, 2026 to 85.72% on February 13, 2026, a 1.63% decline, indicating a slight supply contraction Overseas lithium ore quotes recovered, but spot circulation was stagnant Salt factories mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, and the operating rate might be affected by maintenance (such as the concentrated maintenance period in February) The price of lithium mica concentrate increased by 6.33%, while the price of lithium spodumene concentrate slightly decreased by 0.22%, with the overall raw material cost remaining stable [2][31] - **Demand Side**: New energy vehicle sales increased (data on February 11 showed year - on - year and month - on - month growth), but downstream procurement was weak as most enterprises had completed pre - holiday stocking Positive electrode materials such as power ternary materials rose by 1.81% and lithium iron phosphate rose by 3.85%, indicating demand support Cell prices remained stable After the holiday, with downstream resumption approaching, demand is expected to be released [2][31] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The carbonate lithium inventory decreased from 105,463 physical tons on February 6, 2026 to 102,932 physical tons on February 13, 2026, a 2.4% reduction, showing inventory depletion Although warehouse receipt data was not directly provided, the inventory decline might support prices [2][31] Group 3: Price Trend Judgment - The carbonate lithium futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate upward in the next one to two weeks, due to inventory depletion, improved demand expectations, and supply contraction [33][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain range-bound fluctuations. Although the demand side is supported by the sales volume of new energy vehicles, cautious downstream procurement and suspended logistics limit trading activity. The supply side has stable lithium ore but a short-term transportation bottleneck leads to a tight supply pattern, and continuous inventory depletion provides bottom support. Overall, the market sentiment is neutral, with holiday factors dominating short-term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and the release of restocking demand after the holiday [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 12, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was reported at 149,420 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 840 yuan or 0.56% from 150,260 yuan/ton on February 11. The basis strengthened to -10,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 840 yuan or a 7.33% rise [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased from 356,531 lots on February 11 to 353,975 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots or a 0.72% decline. The trading volume decreased from 351,877 lots to 304,798 lots, a decrease of 47,079 lots or a 13.38% decline [1]. 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The overall supply of lithium ore is stable, with the market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remaining unchanged. However, logistics suspension restricts raw material transportation, and although the salt plant's operating rate remains high, short-term incremental supply is limited. Yahua Group's lithium ore self - sufficiency rate has increased, but the newly put - into - production projects have not yet formed large - scale supply, so the overall supply side is tight [2]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand is differentiated. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth of new energy vehicle sales has driven up the prices of cathode materials. However, the release of newly built battery production capacity is limited, the cell prices are stable, and downstream procurement is cautious, with moderate demand momentum [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 107,482 physical tons on January 30 to 105,463 physical tons on February 6, a decrease of 2,019 tons or a 1.88% decline, continuing the de - stocking trend. The inventory decline reflects accelerated downstream digestion, and combined with the Spring Festival factor, the enterprise's production - based - on - sales strategy suppresses inventory accumulation [2]. 1.3 Price Trend Judgment Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The demand side is supported by new energy vehicle sales, but cautious downstream procurement and suspended logistics limit trading activity. The supply side has stable lithium ore but a short - term transportation bottleneck leads to a tight supply pattern, and continuous inventory depletion provides bottom support. The overall market sentiment is neutral, with holiday factors dominating short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and the release of restocking demand after the holiday [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On February 12, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 149,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 840 yuan or 0.56% from February 11. The basis was - 10,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 840 yuan or 7.33%. The main contract position was 353,975 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots or 0.72%. The main contract trading volume was 304,798 lots, a decrease of 47,079 lots or 13.38%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 138,800 yuan/ton. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained unchanged at 14,155 yuan/ton and 7,900 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 125,000 yuan/ton. The price of power ternary materials increased from 174,600 yuan/ton to 176,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan or 0.80%. The price of power lithium iron phosphate increased from 50,620 yuan/ton to 51,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,090 yuan or 2.15% [5]. - From January 30 to February 6, 2026, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 87.14%. The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 107,482 physical tons to 105,463 physical tons, a decrease of 2,019 tons or 1.88%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased from 6.15 yuan/piece to 6.25 yuan/piece, an increase of 0.10 yuan or 1.63%. The prices of 523 square ternary cells, 523 soft - packed ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, and cobalt - acid lithium cells remained unchanged [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.1 Spot Market Quotations On February 12, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 142,168 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3,685 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 138,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 142,500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4,500 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 135,000 - 143,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 139,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4,500 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate futures main contract maintained range - bound fluctuations on the day, with an intraday increase of 3.66% and the disk price ranging from 146,000 yuan/ton to 152,400 yuan/ton. The position decreased by about 2,600 lots compared with the previous trading day. With the gradual suspension of logistics, downstream material factories have basically completed their February stockpiling, and most enterprises have turned to a wait - and - see attitude, with only a few engaging in late - point - price closing and sporadic purchases. Overall, market inquiries and transactions are relatively light [6]. 3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on February 11, from February 1 to 8, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 119,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 41%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 715,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. From February 1 to 8, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 39% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 989,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1% [7]. 3.3 Industry News - On January 22, the cobalt intermediate product market maintained a relatively strong pattern. On the supply side, some overseas mining enterprises were bullish on the future market and conducted centralized procurement in the domestic market at a price of about 25.5 US dollars/pound, exacerbating the shortage of spot goods. Driven by this, the high - end domestic market quotations have increased to 26 US dollars/pound. On the demand side, the continuous rise in raw material prices has further narrowed the profit margin of smelters, and enterprises have mostly returned to the rigid - demand procurement model. In terms of policy, it is reported that the export process of non - pilot enterprises is progressing steadily, and it is expected that most of the quotas in January 2026 can be successfully exported. However, considering the overall tight market liquidity and the about three - month transportation cycle from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to China, the structurally tight supply pattern of cobalt intermediate products is difficult to fundamentally reverse before the large - scale arrival of raw materials in April, and prices still have upward driving force [8][9]. - On January 16, Yahua Group stated on the investor interaction platform that its lithium ore project in Zimbabwe has shipped lithium ore back to China in batches and used it for relevant production, and its lithium ore self - sufficiency rate is expected to increase. The company also said that it is still actively promoting the inspection of high - quality lithium resources at home and abroad and will follow the principles of "multi - dimensional demonstration, full - process research, and prudent decision - making" to promote relevant work. As of November 2025, Yahua Group had formed a diversified channel layout of self - controlled mines and purchased mines, establishing a relatively complete lithium resource guarantee system [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [10][12][14][16][18][19][22][23].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 11, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 150,260 yuan/ton, up 12,920 yuan/ton or 9.41% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly, dropping from 1,160 yuan/ton to -11,460 yuan/ton, indicating a deepening of the spot discount [1][43]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest increased to 356,531 lots, up 10,542 lots or 3.05%. The trading volume expanded to 351,877 lots, up 56,646 lots or 19.19%, showing an increase in market activity [1][43]. *** Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply side remained stable. On February 11, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate was 14,155 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate was 7,900 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate on February 6, 2026, remained at 87.14% [2][44]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side was weak. Although the prices of power-type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly to 174,600 yuan/ton and 50,620 yuan/ton respectively, according to the data of the Passenger Car Association from January 1 - 18, 2026, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 16% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 23% year - on - year, indicating weak terminal demand. Downstream procurement was cautious as备货 was basically completed [2][44]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 6, 2026, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 105,463 physical tons, down 2,019 tons or 1.88% from the previous week. There was no clear data on warehouse receipts, but the weakening basis reflected pressure in the spot market [2][44]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the price of lithium carbonate futures may maintain a volatile pattern or face slight downward pressure. The reasons include: although the futures price has risen significantly recently, the demand side is weak (new energy vehicle sales have declined), the spot market sentiment is cautious (logistics has suspended, procurement is completed, and trading is light), and the stable supply side is insufficient to support continuous price increases. The declining inventory provides some support, but the overall supply - demand situation is loose [45]. Summary: Overall, the market has risen in the short term driven by futures activity, but the fundamentals lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase [46].