锂辉石增量填补云母矿空缺，碳酸锂短期仍难北上 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：碳酸锂主力合约9月26日报72880元/吨，较前一日下跌 1160元。基差大幅走强至620元/吨，较前一日逆转1160元。 短期碳酸锂期货尚未能获得边际驱动以突破74000点压制。供给端新增产能 释放与海外锂矿成本优化形成潜在利空，但需求端新能源汽车销量增长及 正极材料价格走强提供支撑。基差走强显示期现结构修复需求，节前下游 点价采购或限制下行空间，但持仓量收缩表明资金对突破前高缺乏信心。 重点关注国庆后补库节奏及扎布耶盐湖项目实际爬产进度，若需求增速不 及供给释放，价格中枢存在小幅下移风险。 1/7 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量减少4.79%至24.86万手，创近五日新低；但 成交量大幅增长40.35%至48.1万手，表明价格波动吸引短线交易活跃。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿价格维持在6390元/吨，澳洲Core锂业完成Finniss项 目重启研究，采矿成本降低40%，未来或增强锂辉石供给弹性。西藏矿业扎 布耶盐湖万吨级碳酸锂项目正式投产，叠加天齐锂业张家港3万吨氢氧化锂 项目竣 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with strong price resilience in the context of increasing supply and demand, but lacking a breakthrough driver [3] - The lithium carbonate market in September shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected to experience a period of tight supply [6] Group 2: Daily Market Summary Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes - **Main Contract and Basis**: On September 25, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day's 72,880 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened significantly from 620 yuan/ton on September 24 to - 540 yuan/ton [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On September 25, the position of the main contract slightly expanded to 261,141 lots, an increase of 487 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume slightly shrank to 342,719 lots, a decrease of 2,502 lots from the previous day [1] Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: On September 19, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose to 71.31%, a 4.9 - percentage - point increase from 66.41% on September 12. The price of spodumene concentrate was stable at 6,390 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate remained at 3,400 yuan/ton. However, lithium ore imports decreased by 17.5% month - on - month in August, and future supply increments may be restricted by tight raw materials [2] - **Demand Side**: From September 1 to 21, new - energy vehicle retail sales reached 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose to 58,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power ternary materials increased to 120,750 yuan/ton. But pre - holiday stockpiling is nearing the end, and demand may decline after October [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: On September 19, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 137,531 physical tons, a reduction of 981 tons from 138,512 physical tons on September 12, indicating a tight balance between supply and demand [2] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On September 25, the lithium carbonate main contract was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the basis was - 540 yuan/ton, down 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the main contract position was 261,141 lots, an increase of 487 lots from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 342,719 lots, a decrease of 2,502 lots from the previous day [5] - From September 19 to September 12, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 66.41% to 71.31%, and the inventory decreased from 138,512 physical tons to 137,531 physical tons [5] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Spot Market Quotes - On September 25, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,678 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market is in the peak demand season, pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream material factories is nearing the end, and market sentiment is turning cautious. In September, the market shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and there may be a period of tight supply [6] Downstream Consumption - From September 1 to 21, the retail sales of new - energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the penetration rate was 58.5%. The wholesale volume was 724,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the penetration rate was 55.4% [7] Industry News - On September 11, a "Lithium Belt in Asia" was discovered in China, spanning four provinces and regions [9] - On September 10, news of the potential restart of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine spread, and the company planned to restart production in November, but the outcome is uncertain [9]

供需缺乏明显矛盾，碳酸锂后市仍需关注锂矿进展 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：9月22日碳酸锂主力合约价格收73420元/吨，小幅回落 540元/吨，下跌0.73%。基差报-120元/吨，较9月19日走强540元/吨。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量为271624手，较9月19日减少9640手；主力合 约成交量为396645手，较9月19日扩大26286手，变化率为7.1%。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：锂辉石精矿和锂云母精矿市场价在9月19-22日维持稳定，分别为 6390元/吨和3400元/吨。碳酸锂产能利用率从9月12日的66.41%提升至9月 19日的71.31%，提升了4.9个百分点。 需求端：9月1-14日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售和批发数据同比和环比均 有增长，零售43.8万辆，同比增长6%，较上月同期增长10%；批发44.7万 辆，同比增长10%，较上月同期增长21%。动力型三元材料和动力型磷酸铁 锂价格在9月19 - 22日有小幅上扬，分别上涨200元/吨和80元/吨。下游电 芯价格部分有小幅度上涨。 库存与仓单：碳酸锂库存从9月12日的138512实物吨降至 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the pattern of being volatile and slightly strong. In the absence of additional marginal factors, the main LC2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to remain in the current range in the next 1 - 2 weeks. If downstream purchases are weak, it may retest the previous low [3] - The recent rebound of futures prices may be affected by the weakening of the basis and the stabilization of spot prices, but the changes in trading volume and open interest show market divergence. The supply side may support prices, and the demand side may bring short - term support, but the cautious procurement and sufficient inventory of downstream enterprises may limit the upside space. The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend [32][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On September 16, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract rose slightly to 73,180 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous day. The basis widened to - 1,080 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price was stronger relative to the spot. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 9,009 lots to 300,437 lots, a decrease of 2.91%, while the trading volume expanded by 3.62% to 500,267 lots [1][5][30] - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: On the supply side, the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, becoming the main support for supply, while the proportion of lithium mica decreased to 15%. The long - term supply increase expectation was enhanced, but short - term factors supported the spot. On the demand side, the demand for new energy vehicles was differentiated. The prices of cathode materials and most cell prices increased. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks to 138,512 tons, but the warehouse receipts remained high [2][31] - **Market Summary**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue the volatile and slightly strong pattern. The supply side suppresses the upside space, while the demand side has a contradictory cost - pressure transmission, and market wait - and - see sentiment remains [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.69% to 73,180 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 86.21% to - 1,080 yuan/ton, the open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.91% to 300,437 lots, and the trading volume increased by 3.62% to 500,267 lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 72,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some related products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, power - type ternary materials, and power - type lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [5] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market**: On September 16, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose. The futures price fluctuated, and the downstream was cautious. In September, the market showed a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and a temporary supply shortage was expected [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 7, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the wholesale volume increased by 5% year - on - year [7] - **Industry News**: The lithium ore shutdown in Yichun, Jiangxi, may affect the supply, and the industry reshuffle from the supply side of lithium carbonate is coming [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - There are data charts on the main lithium carbonate futures and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., which visually show the data changes in the industrial chain [10][13][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate futures may continue the volatile and weak pattern, with market focus on the开工 dynamics of lithium mines and salt plants in Jiangxi. The futures rebound space is limited by the rapid convergence of the basis. Potential variables include whether CATL's suspension triggers other salt plants to passively support prices and the marginal support of nickel - cobalt salt price increases on ternary material costs [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes** - On September 4, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous trading day. The basis narrowed significantly from 3,620 yuan/ton on September 3 to 1,280 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased to 353,600 lots, and trading volume soared to 712,200 lots, indicating increased market activity [2] 2. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side** - The proportion of lithium carbonate output from the spodumene smelting end has exceeded 60%, while that of lepidolite has dropped to 15%. Although the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 66.41% in September, the suspension of CATL's Yichun mining area may intensify local supply disturbances, and the resumption rhythm of salt plants needs attention [3] - **Demand Side** - The downstream shows the characteristic of "weak peak season". In August, the retail penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 55.3%, but the cost pressure of power batteries was transmitted to the mid - and upstream. The transaction price of lithium iron phosphate battery cells fell to 0.324 yuan/Wh, and the price of ternary materials also declined continuously. The demand for electrolyte and anode materials was boosted by the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking, but over - capacity restricted the price increase space [3] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts** - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 141,100 tons, but the absolute value was still at a high level, and the de - stocking speed was slow [3] 3. Market Price Monitoring - On September 4, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous day. The basis narrowed from 3,620 yuan/ton on September 3 to 1,280 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium carbonate market price was 74,700 yuan/ton, down 1.06% from the previous day. The price of power - type ternary materials decreased by 0.08% to 118,700 yuan/ton, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.63% to 33,995 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 66.41%, and the inventory decreased by 0.29% to 141,136 tons [6] 4. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotes** - On September 4, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,869 yuan/ton, down 886 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 73,400 - 76,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 75,000 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 72,000 - 73,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 72,700 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton. In September, the market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with demand growing faster, and there will be a stage of tight supply [7] - **Downstream Consumption** - According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association on September 3, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 1.079 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 55.3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.535 million, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The wholesale of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 1.292 million, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale this year was 8.926 million, a year - on - year increase of 33% [8] - **Industry News** - From August 21 - 28, the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. Affected by the Congo (Kinshasa) extension policy, China's cobalt intermediates will face raw material shortages in the future, and prices have upward momentum. Since August 10, CATL's Yichun mining area in Jiangxi has been shut down, and the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industry chain [9][10][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate market may fluctuate widely within the current range. The contraction expectation caused by CATL's production suspension on the supply side is being partially offset by the increase in salt - lake lithium extraction and the recovery of imports. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the procurement rhythm has become cautious due to previous stockpiling, and the continuous pressure on cathode material prices weakens demand elasticity. Lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate within the high - level range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes Analysis - On August 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 79,020 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.45% from the previous trading day. The basis continued to weaken, dropping from 3,320 yuan/ton on the 25th to 2,680 yuan/ton, and the futures discount to the spot increased, indicating that the market's expectation of future supply pressure has increased [1]. - The trading volume of the main contract shrank by 10.7% to 559,599 lots, and the open interest decreased by 19,171 lots. The trading activity of funds cooled down, and some long - positions left the market for risk - avoidance [1]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: There are both short - term disturbances and long - term adjustments. The suspension of CATL's Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mica mining area since August 10 has supported the spot market. However, the expansion projects of salt - lake lithium extraction are advancing, and the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate has increased by 2.49 percentage points week - on - week to 66.41%, so the overall supply has increased marginally. In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 22% month - on - month to 13,845 tons, but Chile's exports to China increased by 33% month - on - month, and the seasonal recovery of overseas supply may ease the tight domestic resource situation [2]. - **Demand side**: The demand in the peak season remains resilient but has limited upward momentum. From August 1 to 17, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 58%, and the demand has improved marginally. The production of cathode materials has remained at a high level, but the prices of power - type lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials have declined slightly, and the downstream cost transfer is under pressure. The overall cell prices are stable, and only the square lithium iron phosphate cells have risen slightly by 0.62%. The rigid demand on the demand side still exists, but the momentum for new orders is insufficient [2]. - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 713 tons week - on - week to 141,543 tons, with a destocking rate of 0.5%, indicating that the supply - demand tight - balance pattern continues. There is no significant change in warehouse receipts, and the low - inventory environment still supports the price bottom [2]. c. Market Summary - The short - term lithium carbonate market may fluctuate widely within the current range. The lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate within the high - level range, and attention should be paid to the unexpected disturbances to the supply caused by the production reduction or suspension events of lithium mica smelters due to cost inversion [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On August 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate was 79,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% from August 25. The basis was 2,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.28% from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 5.20% to 349,496 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 10.74% to 559,599 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% [5]. - From August 15 to August 22, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 63.92% to 66.41%, and the inventory decreased by 0.50% to 141,543 tons. Among the cells, the price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased by 0.23%, the price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 3.60%, and the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells increased by 0.62% [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Spot Market Quotations - On August 26, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 81,739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 780 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The downstream procurement and pricing activities increased slightly compared with the previous day, but some manufacturers reduced their procurement volume this week compared with last week. The overall downstream procurement attitude has become cautious, and they are generally waiting for further price cuts. In the short term, the spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain relatively high and continue to fluctuate within the range [6]. b. Downstream Consumption Situation - From August 1 to 17, the retail volume of the new energy passenger vehicle market was 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 58.0%, and the cumulative retail volume this year was 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The wholesale penetration rate was 56.4%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [7]. c. Industry News - Since the official suspension of CATL's Jiangxi Yichun Jianxiawo mining area on August 10, the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industrial chain [8]. - On August 18, Lanxiao Technology won the bid for the adsorption system of the expansion and renovation project of the comprehensive utilization of old brine for lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake of Guotou Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid amount of 35.7712 million yuan, which will have a positive impact on the company's development in the salt - lake lithium extraction industry [9]. - On August 15, CATL's Jianxiawo mining area suspended production due to the expiration of the mining license, which will directly affect the price of lithium carbonate. Yichun local mines are required to re - apply before September 30 this year [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content mainly lists the names of various data charts, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, etc., without specific data descriptions [10][13][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Over the next 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate futures market may shift to a wide - range, volatile, and bullish pattern. Although supply disturbances have boosted market bullish sentiment, the impact of current mine shutdowns on actual production is yet to be seen, and lithium salt plants maintain high operating rates, so the spot market still faces inventory pressure. On the demand side, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales is slowing down, and the "anti - involution" initiative in the battery industry chain restrains the mid - stream's impulse to expand production, so there is a risk of revising the peak - season expectations. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in policy implementation and the progress of mine rectification in Jiangxi [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Market Summary - **Analysis of Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data** - On August 18, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose to 89,240 yuan/ton; the basis weakened from - 3,600 yuan/ton to - 5,940 yuan/ton, indicating that the market's pricing of the supply - tightening expectation increased [1]. - The open interest of the main contract increased by 19,967 lots to 421,106 lots, and the trading volume increased to 1.036328 million lots. The simultaneous expansion of volume and open interest shows that the divergence among funds on the direction of lithium prices has intensified, and the market's gambling sentiment has heated up [1]. - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply side**: The shutdown of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine in Jiangxi has triggered market concerns about the shortage of lithium mica supply. Coupled with the regulatory pressure on local mines to complete the re - application of ore types by September 30, the uncertainty of lithium ore supply has increased. However, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate are stable at 940 yuan/ton and 990 yuan/ton respectively, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remains flat at 63.92%. The short - term actual supply has not significantly shrunk [2]. - **Demand side**: The retail performance of new energy vehicles is moderate, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 6% from August 1 - 10, indicating marginal weakening pressure on demand. However, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.54% week - on - week to 55,500 yuan/ton, and the price of power ternary materials slightly increased by 0.42% to 119,695 yuan/ton, indicating that there is still some support for downstream inventory - building demand [2]. - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 162 physical tons to 142,256 tons (a decrease of 0.11%), and the absolute value is still at a high level this year. The number of warehouse receipts has not changed abnormally, and the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially relieved [2]. - **Market Price** - Future 1 - 2 weeks, the lithium carbonate futures market may enter a wide - range, volatile, and bullish pattern. Although supply disturbances have boosted market bullish sentiment, the impact of current mine shutdowns on actual production is yet to be seen, and the spot market still faces inventory pressure. On the demand side, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales is slowing down, and the "anti - involution" initiative in the battery industry chain restrains the mid - stream's impulse to expand production, so there is a risk of revising the peak - season expectations. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in policy implementation and the progress of mine rectification in Jiangxi [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From August 15 to August 18, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 86,900 yuan/ton to 89,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,340 yuan or 2.69%. The basis weakened from - 3,600 yuan/ton to - 5,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,340 yuan or 65%. The open interest of the main contract increased from 401,139 lots to 421,106 lots, an increase of 19,967 lots or 4.98%. The trading volume of the main contract increased from 868,811 lots to 1,036,328 lots, an increase of 167,517 lots or 19.28% [5]. - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 83,300 yuan/ton. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged at 940 yuan/ton and 990 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from 55,200 yuan/ton to 55,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan or 0.54%. The price of power ternary materials increased from 119,195 yuan/ton to 119,695 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan or 0.42%. The price of power lithium iron phosphate increased from 35,655 yuan/ton to 36,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 515 yuan or 1.44% [5]. - From August 8 to August 15, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 63.92%. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 142,418 physical tons to 142,256 physical tons, a decrease of 162 physical tons or 0.11%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased from 4.31 yuan/piece to 4.32 yuan/piece, an increase of 0.01 yuan or 0.23%. The price of 523 square ternary cells increased from 0.38 yuan/Wh to 0.39 yuan/Wh, an increase of 0.00 yuan or 0.26%. The price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained unchanged at 0.40 yuan/Wh. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained unchanged at 0.32 yuan/Wh. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased from 5.53 yuan/Ah to 5.55 yuan/Ah, an increase of 0.02 yuan or 0.36% [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotation (August 18)**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 84,794 yuan/ton, a increase of 2,069 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,500 - 86,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 84,600 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,900 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 - 83,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 82,300 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,900 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. Affected by the news that a lithium salt production enterprise in Qinghai may face shutdown due to the mining license issue, the futures price continued to rise, breaking through the 90,000 - yuan/ton mark at the highest. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm continued to increase, and the market activity increased. Due to the rigid - demand purchasing needs of some downstream enterprises and the general reluctance - to - sell sentiment of upstream and traders, the center of the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to move up significantly. Under the dual effects of the supply - tightening expectation and the peak - demand season, the spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to have room for an upward movement, and the price center may continue to move up in the short term. The trading sentiment factor of lithium carbonate on this day was 2.31, the upstream shipping sentiment factor was 2.67, and the downstream purchasing sentiment factor was 2.05. The downstream purchasing sentiment factor increased compared with the previous working day, and the upstream shipping sentiment factor remained relatively stable [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation (August 13)**: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 10, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 262,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 6%. The retail penetration rate of the national new energy market was 57.9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.717 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. From August 1 - 10, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers were 229,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month decrease of 2%. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 56.8%. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 7.862 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35% [6]. - **Industry News** - August 15: Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, one of the largest lithium mica mines in Yichun, announced a shutdown due to the expiration of the mining license, which will directly affect the change in lithium carbonate prices. Local mines in Yichun mainly mine ceramic soil and tantalum - niobium ore, but the new mining law revision tends to determine the ore type based on the actual economic behavior. There are a total of eight mines in the same situation, and local authorities require them to re - apply before September 30 this year [8]. - August 13: An "anti - involution" storm is sweeping through the entire lithium - battery industry chain. On August 12, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative for the healthy development of the lithium industry, calling on the entire industry chain to jointly resist vicious competition and promote the high - quality development of the lithium industry. The initiative includes strengthening upstream - downstream collaboration, maintaining industrial safety, adhering to the principle of fair market competition, and actively assessing market trends to reasonably plan new production capacities [8]. - July 23: On July 22, Yang Hongxin, the chairman of Hive Energy, revealed that Hive Energy is fully promoting the R & D and mass - production process of solid - state batteries. It plans to trial - produce the first - generation 140Ah semi - solid batteries on its 2.3GWh semi - solid mass - production line in the fourth quarter of 2025. These batteries will be used exclusively for the next - generation models of BMW MINI and are expected to be supplied on a large scale starting in 2027 [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides data charts including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, lithium concentrate prices, hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices, with data sources including iFinD, SMM, Shanghai Steel Union, and the R & D department of Tonghui Futures [10][13][15][17][18][21][22][24].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term core contradiction in the market is the continuous excess pressure under the situation of increasing supply and stable demand. The lithium carbonate price lacks the momentum for continuous rebound, and attention should be paid to the downstream production resumption progress in June and the cost support strength of lithium ore prices [7] Group 2: Daily Market Summary - On June 6, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 60,440 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous trading day. The futures rebounded and the spot price remained stable, causing the basis to converge [2] - The position of the main contract significantly shrank to 218,416 lots on June 6, a 5.69% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume slightly expanded to 256,782 lots, a 4.98% increase, but there was a lack of continuous position - increasing support [3] - The supply of lithium salts is expected to remain loose. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained flat, and the raw material cost support weakened. The operating rate of lithium salt plants is expected to increase in June, and the long - term supply pressure remains [4] - Downstream demand is structurally differentiated but overall weak. Although new energy vehicle sales are still resilient, power battery production has declined seasonally, and cathode material manufacturers are destocking, suppressing procurement demand [5] - Lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.65% to 132,432 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The actual de - stocking power is insufficient due to the mismatch between supply and demand [6] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On June 6, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 60,440 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day; the basis was 960 yuan/ton, down 20% [9] - The position of the main contract was 218,416 lots, down 5.69%; the trading volume was 256,782 lots, up 4.98% [9] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61,400 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The prices of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and some cathode materials remained flat [9] - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 62.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous period. The inventory of lithium carbonate was 132,432 tons, up 0.65% [9] Group 4: Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - The price center of lithium carbonate spot transactions remained stable. In June, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase while demand remains stable, and the excess pattern will continue [10] - In May, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 105.6 million, a 30% year - on - year increase, and the penetration rate reached 53.5%. The wholesale volume was 124 million, a 37% year - on - year increase [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The policy - driven demand expectations for lithium carbonate are in a multi - empty game with high inventory levels and cost collapses. Over the next 1 - 2 weeks, the futures price of lithium carbonate will be constrained by the oversupply situation and the decline in Australian ore costs on the upside, while being supported by short - term export rush expectations and market sentiment on the downside. If the demand boost fails to meet expectations, the price may face downward pressure again, and overall, it will continue the low - level oscillation pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On May 14, the main futures contract of lithium carbonate closed at 65,200 yuan/ton, up 3.13% from the previous day, with an intraday fluctuation range of 63,020 - 65,200 yuan/ton, showing an oscillatory upward trend. The basis weakened significantly, dropping from 2,980 yuan/ton to 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.44%. The futures price increase was significantly higher than that of the spot price [2]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 5.87% to 277,000 lots, indicating some funds left the market, while the trading volume expanded by 73.95% to 378,000 lots, suggesting intensified market competition [2]. - In the spot market, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained flat at 66,200 yuan/ton. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates also remained stable, but the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 61% month - on - month, as upstream production was still constrained by profit margins [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Analysis and Future Trend Judgment - **Supply Side**: The prices of spodumene (740 yuan/ton) and lepidolite (800 yuan/ton) have remained stable for many days, but the CIF price of Australian ore has dropped to $700/ton, weakening cost support. Upstream lithium salt plants are maintaining high prices due to losses, and the weekly output has increased by 28% month - on - month, so the supply pressure persists [3]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of power ternary materials (116,375 yuan/ton) and lithium iron phosphate (31,445 yuan/ton) increased slightly. The purchasing willingness of downstream cathode material enterprises is low, and demand relies on long - term contracts. The exemption of tariffs on Chinese energy - storage cells in the US may stimulate the expectation of a rush to export, potentially driving up the production of energy - storage cells in May - June and improving short - term marginal demand [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 464 tons, but the inventory of smelters increased to 55,000 tons. Downstream replenishment remains cautious, and the overall inventory pressure has not been substantially alleviated [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 3.13% from May 13 to May 14, while the basis decreased by 66.44%. The open interest decreased by 5.87%, and the trading volume increased by 73.95% [5]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, and the prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates were stable. The prices of power ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, by 0.02% and 0.16% respectively [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.3 percentage points from May 9 to May 2, a decrease of 2.09% [5]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On May 14, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,959 yuan/ton, up 197 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,050 yuan/ton, also up 100 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing willingness is low, and the overall demand is mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term contracts. Upstream lithium salt plants have a strong willingness to maintain high prices due to cost losses. Only some transactions occur between traders and downstream enterprises. Considering the high inventory and weakening cost support, the price of lithium carbonate will continue the low - level oscillatory pattern [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to the Passenger Car Association, from April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 52.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 3.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by manufacturers was 1.142 million units, a year - on - year increase of 41% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 53.9%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 3.99 million units, a year - on - year increase of 42% [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand contradiction of lithium carbonate remains unresolved, and the pattern of weak oscillation may continue. The expansion inertia after the Spring Festival and the current stall in demand dominate the market. The spot market has default news, and there are also some differences within the short - selling funds in the futures market. It may enter a bottom - seeking stage in the short term [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract on May 8 was 64,280 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.19% from the previous day, but it showed an oscillating downward trend in the past five days, dropping from 66,260 yuan/ton to 64,280 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis weakened significantly, reaching 2,120 yuan/ton on May 8, a decrease of 620 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The position of the main contract decreased for two consecutive days, dropping to 267,396 lots (-3.43%) on May 8, while the trading volume increased significantly by 51.75% to 309,284 lots [2]. - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 66,400 yuan/ton (-0.75%), and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate also declined. The price center of the industrial chain spot continued to move down [2]. - The prices of downstream products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.09%, 0.3%, and 1.04% respectively, and the prices of electrolyte and anode materials also weakened [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - In April, the total output of lithium carbonate decreased by 7% month - on - month but remained at a high level. The output of spodumene decreased by 16%, that of lithium mica increased by 4% month - on - month, and the output of salt lakes increased by 10% with the warming of the temperature [3]. - The price of lithium salts forced the mining end to make concessions, and severely hit the smelting demand such as toll - processing. The mining end is currently in a stage of price decline and inventory accumulation [3]. - From April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%; the wholesale volume of manufacturers was 1.142 million units, a year - on - year increase of 41% and a month - on - month increase of 1% [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On May 8, 2025, compared with May 7, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.19%, the basis decreased by 22.63%, the main contract position decreased by 3.43%, and the main contract trading volume increased by 51.75%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.75%, while the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged. The prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.09%, 0.3%, and 1.04% respectively [6]. - From May 2 to April 25, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.48% [6]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On May 8, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 65,346 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1415 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,250 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,600 yuan/ton, both decreasing by 1400 yuan/ton. Due to high inventory and weak downstream procurement, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to fall [7]. - From April 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 728,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%, with a retail penetration rate of 52.3%. The wholesale volume of manufacturers was 846,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 6%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.9% [8]. 3.5 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate inventory, lithium carbonate operating rate, and cell selling prices [9][14][17][19][21][22][24][26][28].