一、日度市场总结 ： 碳酸锂主力合约价格于6月6日收于60440元/吨，较前一交易日小幅上涨 0.57%，短期反弹但上方压力仍存，期货反弹叠加现货价格持稳，基差有所 收敛。 ： 主力合约持仓量显著收缩，6月6日降至218416手，环比减少5.69%。成交量 小幅扩大至256782手，环比增加4.98%，日内交易活跃度提升，但缺乏持续 性增仓支撑。 ： 锂盐供应预期仍旧宽松，锂辉石及锂云母精矿价格持平，港口锂矿库存压 力持续，原料成本支撑弱化。5月下旬期货反弹刺激非一体化锂盐厂套保， 6月开工率存恢复性增量预期；产能利用率环比微升0.4个百分点至62.5%， 盐厂工艺逐步优化，中长期供应压力未减。 ： 下游需求结构性分化但整体偏弱。乘联会数据显示5月新能源车零售同比增 30%至105.6万辆，渗透率突破53.5%，但终端动力电池排产因销售淡季回 落；正极材料中三元材料及磷酸铁锂价格持平，但订单疲软，材料厂以消 耗库存为主，钴酸锂等产品因成本下行持续承压。新建电池产能释放节奏 放缓，市场观望情绪浓厚。 ： 碳酸锂库存环比增加0.65%至132432吨，延续累库趋势；仓单数据未更新， 但现货成交清淡反映实际去库动力 ...

通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙皓 从业编号：F03118712 投资咨询：Z0019405 sunhao@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 基差修复凸显市场分歧，碳酸锂低位震荡格局延续 一、日度市场总结 市场数据变动分析 5月14日，碳酸锂主力期货合约收于65200元/吨，较前一日上涨3.13%，盘中波动 区间为63020-65200元/吨，呈现震荡上扬态势。基差大幅走弱，从前一日的2980 元/吨回落至1000元/吨，降幅达66.44%，期货价格涨幅显著高于现货。持仓量收 缩5.87%至27.7万手，部分资金离场；成交量则大幅扩张73.95%至37.8万手，市 场博弈加剧。现货市场方面，电池级碳酸锂均价持平于66200元/吨，锂辉石和锂 云母精矿价格亦维持稳定，但碳酸锂产能利用率环比下降1.3个百分点至61%， 上游生产仍受利润压制。 产业链分析与未来走势判断 供给端，锂辉石（740元/吨）和锂云母（800元/吨）价格连续多日持稳，但澳矿 CIF报价已跌至70 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand contradiction of lithium carbonate remains unresolved, and the pattern of weak oscillation may continue. The expansion inertia after the Spring Festival and the current stall in demand dominate the market. The spot market has default news, and there are also some differences within the short - selling funds in the futures market. It may enter a bottom - seeking stage in the short term [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract on May 8 was 64,280 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.19% from the previous day, but it showed an oscillating downward trend in the past five days, dropping from 66,260 yuan/ton to 64,280 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis weakened significantly, reaching 2,120 yuan/ton on May 8, a decrease of 620 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The position of the main contract decreased for two consecutive days, dropping to 267,396 lots (-3.43%) on May 8, while the trading volume increased significantly by 51.75% to 309,284 lots [2]. - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 66,400 yuan/ton (-0.75%), and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate also declined. The price center of the industrial chain spot continued to move down [2]. - The prices of downstream products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.09%, 0.3%, and 1.04% respectively, and the prices of electrolyte and anode materials also weakened [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - In April, the total output of lithium carbonate decreased by 7% month - on - month but remained at a high level. The output of spodumene decreased by 16%, that of lithium mica increased by 4% month - on - month, and the output of salt lakes increased by 10% with the warming of the temperature [3]. - The price of lithium salts forced the mining end to make concessions, and severely hit the smelting demand such as toll - processing. The mining end is currently in a stage of price decline and inventory accumulation [3]. - From April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%; the wholesale volume of manufacturers was 1.142 million units, a year - on - year increase of 41% and a month - on - month increase of 1% [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On May 8, 2025, compared with May 7, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.19%, the basis decreased by 22.63%, the main contract position decreased by 3.43%, and the main contract trading volume increased by 51.75%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.75%, while the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged. The prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.09%, 0.3%, and 1.04% respectively [6]. - From May 2 to April 25, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.48% [6]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On May 8, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 65,346 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1415 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,250 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,600 yuan/ton, both decreasing by 1400 yuan/ton. Due to high inventory and weak downstream procurement, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to fall [7]. - From April 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 728,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%, with a retail penetration rate of 52.3%. The wholesale volume of manufacturers was 846,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 6%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.9% [8]. 3.5 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate inventory, lithium carbonate operating rate, and cell selling prices [9][14][17][19][21][22][24][26][28].

新能源锂电 4 月 25 日，碳酸锂期货 7 万下方窄幅波动，主力合约 LC2507 收 68180 元/吨，较前一交易日收盘下跌 0.18%。碳 酸锂现货报价松动，低位波动，电池级碳酸锂现货成交均价 较前一交易日下跌 100 元/吨。 有色网数据显示，4 月 25 日当周碳酸锂的周度产量为 16900 吨，环比前一周减少 2.81%，周度产量开始有明显减 少，但整体仍处于历史相对高位；截至 4 月 25 日当周碳酸 锂周度库存为 131864 吨，环比增加 0.20%，同时磷酸铁锂电 池周产量为 17.37GWh，环比增加 10.71%。 据乘联会数据，4 月 1-20 日，新能源车市场零售同比增 长 20%，环比下降 11%。全国乘用车厂商新能源批发同比去 年同期增长 23%，环比下降 7%。 上周碳酸锂周度产量仍旧维持高位，下游产量也有恢 复，但是相比于年初的高产量仍有差距；碳酸锂产业链中间 环节的传导也并不通常，整体上碳酸锂仍旧呈现持续累库的 局面。 期货方面，上周五碳酸锂期货 LC2507 合约午后大幅下 杀，上周五政治局会议的决策中，消费政策偏向"服务性消 费"，白电、新能源汽车等"物质消费"未能 ...