地缘不确定性压低风险偏好，碳酸锂回吐禁运溢价 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：3月3日，碳酸锂主力合约价格大幅下跌至150860元/ 吨，较3月2日回落12.3%；基差显著走强至16940元/吨，较前一日扩大 18160元。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量收缩10.24%至339604手，市场避险情绪升 温；成交量扩大96.03%至445115手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿价格3月3日上涨5.91%至19075元/吨，支撑成本端， 但锂云母精矿价格维持稳定在10150元/吨；碳酸锂产能利用率稳定在 85.72%，上游锂盐厂惜售情绪明显，散单出货意愿偏弱，供应整体偏紧。 需求端 ：下游正极材料价格普遍回落，3月3日动力型三元材料和磷酸铁锂 价格分别下跌2.34%和4.72%；2月11日乘联会数据显示新能源车零售销量同 比增长42%，但累计同比下降14%，需求复苏不均衡；下游材料厂在价格下 跌时采购意愿增强，但多数企业仍持观望态度，新建电池产能尚未显著拉 动需求。 库存与仓单 ：碳酸锂库存降至100093实物吨，较前一周减少约2839吨，显 示去库趋势延续。 价 ...

Group 1: Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main contract of carbonate lithium rose from RMB 152,640/ton on February 13, 2026 to RMB 164,120/ton on February 24, 2026, a 7.52% increase, indicating a slight price increase The basis weakened from -RMB 8,840/ton to -RMB 20,320/ton (the negative value expanded), showing that the futures price rose faster than the spot price [1][30] - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest increased from 342,226 lots to 365,180 lots on February 24, 2026, a 6.71% growth, indicating an expansion of market participation The trading volume decreased from 300,191 lots to 214,364 lots, a 28.59% contraction, suggesting reduced trading activities, possibly due to post - holiday or market wait - and - see sentiment [1][30] Group 2: Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium decreased from 87.14% on February 6, 2026 to 85.72% on February 13, 2026, a 1.63% decline, indicating a slight supply contraction Overseas lithium ore quotes recovered, but spot circulation was stagnant Salt factories mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, and the operating rate might be affected by maintenance (such as the concentrated maintenance period in February) The price of lithium mica concentrate increased by 6.33%, while the price of lithium spodumene concentrate slightly decreased by 0.22%, with the overall raw material cost remaining stable [2][31] - **Demand Side**: New energy vehicle sales increased (data on February 11 showed year - on - year and month - on - month growth), but downstream procurement was weak as most enterprises had completed pre - holiday stocking Positive electrode materials such as power ternary materials rose by 1.81% and lithium iron phosphate rose by 3.85%, indicating demand support Cell prices remained stable After the holiday, with downstream resumption approaching, demand is expected to be released [2][31] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The carbonate lithium inventory decreased from 105,463 physical tons on February 6, 2026 to 102,932 physical tons on February 13, 2026, a 2.4% reduction, showing inventory depletion Although warehouse receipt data was not directly provided, the inventory decline might support prices [2][31] Group 3: Price Trend Judgment - The carbonate lithium futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate upward in the next one to two weeks, due to inventory depletion, improved demand expectations, and supply contraction [33][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain range-bound fluctuations. Although the demand side is supported by the sales volume of new energy vehicles, cautious downstream procurement and suspended logistics limit trading activity. The supply side has stable lithium ore but a short-term transportation bottleneck leads to a tight supply pattern, and continuous inventory depletion provides bottom support. Overall, the market sentiment is neutral, with holiday factors dominating short-term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and the release of restocking demand after the holiday [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 12, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was reported at 149,420 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 840 yuan or 0.56% from 150,260 yuan/ton on February 11. The basis strengthened to -10,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 840 yuan or a 7.33% rise [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased from 356,531 lots on February 11 to 353,975 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots or a 0.72% decline. The trading volume decreased from 351,877 lots to 304,798 lots, a decrease of 47,079 lots or a 13.38% decline [1]. 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The overall supply of lithium ore is stable, with the market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remaining unchanged. However, logistics suspension restricts raw material transportation, and although the salt plant's operating rate remains high, short-term incremental supply is limited. Yahua Group's lithium ore self - sufficiency rate has increased, but the newly put - into - production projects have not yet formed large - scale supply, so the overall supply side is tight [2]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand is differentiated. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth of new energy vehicle sales has driven up the prices of cathode materials. However, the release of newly built battery production capacity is limited, the cell prices are stable, and downstream procurement is cautious, with moderate demand momentum [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 107,482 physical tons on January 30 to 105,463 physical tons on February 6, a decrease of 2,019 tons or a 1.88% decline, continuing the de - stocking trend. The inventory decline reflects accelerated downstream digestion, and combined with the Spring Festival factor, the enterprise's production - based - on - sales strategy suppresses inventory accumulation [2]. 1.3 Price Trend Judgment Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The demand side is supported by new energy vehicle sales, but cautious downstream procurement and suspended logistics limit trading activity. The supply side has stable lithium ore but a short - term transportation bottleneck leads to a tight supply pattern, and continuous inventory depletion provides bottom support. The overall market sentiment is neutral, with holiday factors dominating short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and the release of restocking demand after the holiday [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On February 12, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 149,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 840 yuan or 0.56% from February 11. The basis was - 10,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 840 yuan or 7.33%. The main contract position was 353,975 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots or 0.72%. The main contract trading volume was 304,798 lots, a decrease of 47,079 lots or 13.38%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 138,800 yuan/ton. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained unchanged at 14,155 yuan/ton and 7,900 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 125,000 yuan/ton. The price of power ternary materials increased from 174,600 yuan/ton to 176,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan or 0.80%. The price of power lithium iron phosphate increased from 50,620 yuan/ton to 51,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,090 yuan or 2.15% [5]. - From January 30 to February 6, 2026, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 87.14%. The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 107,482 physical tons to 105,463 physical tons, a decrease of 2,019 tons or 1.88%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased from 6.15 yuan/piece to 6.25 yuan/piece, an increase of 0.10 yuan or 1.63%. The prices of 523 square ternary cells, 523 soft - packed ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, and cobalt - acid lithium cells remained unchanged [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.1 Spot Market Quotations On February 12, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 142,168 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3,685 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 138,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 142,500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4,500 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 135,000 - 143,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 139,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4,500 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate futures main contract maintained range - bound fluctuations on the day, with an intraday increase of 3.66% and the disk price ranging from 146,000 yuan/ton to 152,400 yuan/ton. The position decreased by about 2,600 lots compared with the previous trading day. With the gradual suspension of logistics, downstream material factories have basically completed their February stockpiling, and most enterprises have turned to a wait - and - see attitude, with only a few engaging in late - point - price closing and sporadic purchases. Overall, market inquiries and transactions are relatively light [6]. 3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on February 11, from February 1 to 8, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 119,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 41%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 715,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. From February 1 to 8, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 39% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 989,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1% [7]. 3.3 Industry News - On January 22, the cobalt intermediate product market maintained a relatively strong pattern. On the supply side, some overseas mining enterprises were bullish on the future market and conducted centralized procurement in the domestic market at a price of about 25.5 US dollars/pound, exacerbating the shortage of spot goods. Driven by this, the high - end domestic market quotations have increased to 26 US dollars/pound. On the demand side, the continuous rise in raw material prices has further narrowed the profit margin of smelters, and enterprises have mostly returned to the rigid - demand procurement model. In terms of policy, it is reported that the export process of non - pilot enterprises is progressing steadily, and it is expected that most of the quotas in January 2026 can be successfully exported. However, considering the overall tight market liquidity and the about three - month transportation cycle from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to China, the structurally tight supply pattern of cobalt intermediate products is difficult to fundamentally reverse before the large - scale arrival of raw materials in April, and prices still have upward driving force [8][9]. - On January 16, Yahua Group stated on the investor interaction platform that its lithium ore project in Zimbabwe has shipped lithium ore back to China in batches and used it for relevant production, and its lithium ore self - sufficiency rate is expected to increase. The company also said that it is still actively promoting the inspection of high - quality lithium resources at home and abroad and will follow the principles of "multi - dimensional demonstration, full - process research, and prudent decision - making" to promote relevant work. As of November 2025, Yahua Group had formed a diversified channel layout of self - controlled mines and purchased mines, establishing a relatively complete lithium resource guarantee system [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [10][12][14][16][18][19][22][23].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 11, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 150,260 yuan/ton, up 12,920 yuan/ton or 9.41% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly, dropping from 1,160 yuan/ton to -11,460 yuan/ton, indicating a deepening of the spot discount [1][43]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest increased to 356,531 lots, up 10,542 lots or 3.05%. The trading volume expanded to 351,877 lots, up 56,646 lots or 19.19%, showing an increase in market activity [1][43]. *** Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply side remained stable. On February 11, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate was 14,155 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate was 7,900 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate on February 6, 2026, remained at 87.14% [2][44]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side was weak. Although the prices of power-type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly to 174,600 yuan/ton and 50,620 yuan/ton respectively, according to the data of the Passenger Car Association from January 1 - 18, 2026, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 16% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 23% year - on - year, indicating weak terminal demand. Downstream procurement was cautious as备货 was basically completed [2][44]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 6, 2026, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 105,463 physical tons, down 2,019 tons or 1.88% from the previous week. There was no clear data on warehouse receipts, but the weakening basis reflected pressure in the spot market [2][44]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the price of lithium carbonate futures may maintain a volatile pattern or face slight downward pressure. The reasons include: although the futures price has risen significantly recently, the demand side is weak (new energy vehicle sales have declined), the spot market sentiment is cautious (logistics has suspended, procurement is completed, and trading is light), and the stable supply side is insufficient to support continuous price increases. The declining inventory provides some support, but the overall supply - demand situation is loose [45]. Summary: Overall, the market has risen in the short term driven by futures activity, but the fundamentals lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase [46].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Analysis - **Main contract and basis**: On January 27, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 165,680 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 3,100 yuan/ton or about 1.84% from the previous day. The basis strengthened from -11,020 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, to 12,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 23,840 yuan/ton [1][31]. - **Open interest and trading volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased to 416,719 lots, a decrease of 21,909 lots or about 5%. The trading volume increased to 575,675 lots, an increase of 232,870 lots or about 68% [1][32]. *** Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable on January 27, 2026, at 19,470 yuan/ton and 8,700 yuan/ton, respectively. However, information indicated that lithium ore prices had increased slightly recently, and overseas mine quotes had risen. The smelter operating rate remained stable at 87.14%, but the reluctance to sell among upstream lithium salt producers had increased, and some manufacturers had hoarded goods, resulting in a weak willingness to sell spot orders. On January 16, 2026, Yahua Group announced the commissioning of its lithium mine project in Zimbabwe, which increased self - sufficiency, but the overall supply increase was limited [2]. - **Demand side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. On January 27, 2026, the price of power ternary materials was 188,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of power lithium iron phosphate was 58,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,185 yuan/ton. Although the prices of some battery cells had increased, the demand for new energy vehicles was weak. According to data from the Passenger Car Association on January 21, 2026, the retail sales from January 1 - 18 decreased by 16% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 23%. Downstream material manufacturers mainly purchased on demand, and some began to stock up for February, but overall purchases were cautious. Coupled with the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy, the demand side lacked support [2]. - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: As of January 23, 2026, the lithium carbonate inventory was 108,896 physical tons, a slight decrease of 783 tons or 0.71% from 109,679 physical tons on January 16, 2026, continuing the de - stocking trend [2]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The weak demand persists, with the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream purchases restricting the upside space. Meanwhile, although the supply side has support from reluctance to sell and inventory de - stocking, the stable lithium ore prices and high capacity utilization rate limit the rebound strength. The overall market may experience increased volatility under the weak supply - demand balance but lacks a breakthrough driver [3].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main lithium carbonate contract dropped from 181,520 yuan/ton on January 23, 2026, to 165,680 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, a decline of 8.73%, showing a slight pullback. The basis strengthened from -11,020 yuan/ton to 12,820 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 216.33%, indicating a significant strengthening of the basis [39]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest decreased from 438,728 lots to 416,719 lots, a reduction of 5.02%, showing a contraction in open interest. The trading volume increased from 342,805 lots to 575,675 lots, a growth of 67.93%, indicating a significant expansion of trading volume [39]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: According to information, the lithium ore project of Yahua Group (January 16) has improved self - sufficiency; Sigma Lithium (January 23) sold lithium ore and denied operational issues. The price of spodumene concentrate rose from 17,985 yuan/ton to 19,470 yuan/ton (8.26%), and the price of lepidolite concentrate rose from 8,500 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton (2.35%), indicating an increase in raw material costs. The production capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 87.14% [40]. - **Demand Side**: The data from the Passenger Car Association (January 21) showed a year - on - year decline in new energy vehicle sales, indicating weak demand. However, the prices of downstream products such as power ternary materials (from 186,300 yuan/ton to 190,300 yuan/ton, up 2.15%) and power lithium iron phosphate (from 58,630 yuan/ton to 61,175 yuan/ton, up 4.34%) increased, and the prices of battery cells generally rose, indicating demand support. Information mentioned that the cost of energy - storage battery cells increased, with price transmission lagging, and downstream resistance to high prices. In new energy vehicle exports, PHEV growth was faster than BEV, reflecting a change in demand structure [40]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 109,679 physical tons to 108,896 physical tons (a change of - 783 tons, - 0.71%), showing a slight decline in inventory. Warehouse receipt data was not directly provided, but the inventory reduction implied supply tightness or increased demand [40]. Price Trend Judgment Based on the rising supply cost, demand - side support, and decreasing inventory, it is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the next one to two weeks, with a possibility of a slight rebound, but attention should be paid to demand changes and macro factors [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, but the increase may be limited. The supply side is supported by the sharp rise in raw material prices, pushing up production costs. The demand side is supported by the growth of new - energy vehicle retail sales and high cell production schedules, but weak wholesale data and downstream sensitivity to high prices lead to cautious procurement. The decline in inventory reflects a tight supply - demand balance [3][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 25, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate slightly declined to 123,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous day. The basis strengthened to - 17,720 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.04% [1][35]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The position volume significantly shrank to 607,187 lots, a decrease of 6.21% from the previous day. The trading volume slightly shrank to 924,823 lots, a decline of 2.55% [1][36]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The price of spodumene concentrate soared to 12,330 yuan/ton, a 9.89% increase from the previous day. The price of lepidolite concentrate slightly rose to 5,975 yuan/ton, a 1.88% increase. The capacity utilization rate remained stable at 83.52%. The progress of the 100,000 - ton lithium salt project of Xinjiang Nonferrous Group may increase long - term supply, but the current rise in raw material costs has pushed up production costs. Upstream lithium salt plants mainly focus on long - term contracts, and spot transactions are rare [2][37]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream products generally increased. The price of power ternary materials rose 0.88% to 149,300 yuan/ton, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate rose 2.0% to 42,045 yuan/ton. The retail sales of new - energy vehicles increased by 1% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 60.6%, but the wholesale sales decreased by 10% year - on - year, showing demand differentiation. The cell price increased due to cost - push, but downstream buyers are cautiously observing high - price lithium carbonate, and their procurement is mainly for rigid demand and long - term contracts [2][37]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased to 110,425 tons, a 0.94% decrease from the previous week. There is no direct mention of warehouse receipt data, but the decrease in inventory indicates a tightening supply - demand balance [2][38]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the next one to two weeks, but the increase may be limited. The supply - side raw material price increase supports the cost, while the demand side is cautious due to high prices, and the inventory decline reflects a tight supply - demand balance [3][39]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract decreased by 0.96% to 123,520 yuan/ton on December 25, 2025. - The basis strengthened by 11.04% to - 17,720 yuan/ton. - The position volume of the main contract decreased by 6.21% to 607,187 lots. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 2.55% to 924,823 lots. - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95% to 105,800 yuan/ton. - The market price of spodumene concentrate increased by 9.89% to 12,330 yuan/ton. - The market price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 1.88% to 5,975 yuan/ton. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 0.60% to 167,000 yuan/ton. - The price of power ternary materials increased by 0.88% to 149,300 yuan/ton. - The price of power lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.00% to 42,045 yuan/ton [5]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On December 25, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 105,138 yuan/ton, a 3,854 - yuan increase from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 104,900 yuan/ton, a 3,400 - yuan increase. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 102,250 yuan/ton, a 3,400 - yuan increase. The overall spot market trading of lithium carbonate was scarce [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: From December 1 - 21, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 788,000 units, a 1% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 60.6%. The wholesale sales were 782,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease [7]. - **Industry News**: - In 2023, the 100,000 - ton lithium salt project of Xinjiang Nonferrous Group started, which may affect future supply. - Recently, Wanrun New Energy announced a technical upgrade of its "120,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate project" to produce high - pressure - density lithium iron phosphate products [9][10]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the main lithium carbonate futures contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., with data sources such as iFinD, SMM, and Shanghai Steel Union [11][14][16].

1. Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating was provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The supply side is supported by rising raw material costs, while the demand side is weak, and the market is in a game between cost support and weak demand [3][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 23, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 120,360 yuan/ton, up 5,980 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a 5.23% increase. The basis weakened from - 13,580 yuan/ton to - 17,560 yuan/ton, a 29.31% decrease [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract slightly shrank from 671,889 lots to 671,573 lots, a 0.05% decrease. The trading volume dropped from 1,007,441 lots to 731,003 lots, a 27.44% decrease [1] 3.1.2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The raw material cost support increased. The market price of spodumene concentrate rose from 11,025 yuan/ton on December 22 to 11,145 yuan/ton on December 23, and that of lepidolite concentrate from 5,565 yuan/ton to 5,750 yuan/ton. The upstream lithium salt plants mainly focused on long - term contracts, with few spot transactions, and the capacity utilization rate remained stable at 83.52%, indicating a tight overall supply without significant expansion [2] - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials rose slightly. However, from December 1 - 14, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year and wholesale sales decreased by 15% year - on - year. The demand side was overall weak, and downstream material plants were cautious about high prices, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and long - term contract increases. The advancement of solid - state battery technology may affect medium - to - long - term demand expectations [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased from 111,469 physical tons on December 12 to 110,425 physical tons on December 19, reflecting a continued inventory reduction trend [2] 3.2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On December 23, 2025, compared with December 22, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lepidolite concentrate market price, power - type ternary material, and power - type lithium iron phosphate all increased. The basis weakened, and the main contract position slightly shrank, while the trading volume significantly decreased. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained stable. From December 12 to December 19, the lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased, and the capacity utilization rate remained stable at 83.52%. Some cell prices increased slightly, while others remained stable [5] 3.3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1. Spot Market Quotation - On December 22, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price all increased. The lithium carbonate futures price showed an oscillating pattern, mainly driven by capital sentiment. Downstream cathode material plants were cautious about high prices, and actual market transactions were limited. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises were still ongoing [6] 3.3.2. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the Passenger Car Association data on December 17, from December 1 - 14, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year but increased by 1% month - on - month, and wholesale sales decreased by 15% year - on - year and 14% month - on - month [7] 3.3.3. Industry News - On December 16, it was reported that all - solid - state batteries are expected to be put into small - scale production and vehicle installation from 2026 - 2027, with different energy density targets in different periods. On December 11, Wanrun New Energy announced a technical upgrade of its lithium iron phosphate project to produce high - density lithium iron phosphate products [8][9] 3.4. Price Trend Judgment - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. The supply side is supported by rising lithium ore raw material costs, and the stable capacity utilization rate and scarce spot transactions limit the downward price space. Although new energy vehicle sales have declined year - on - year and downstream purchases are cautious, the slight inventory decrease and the slight increase in cathode material prices provide basic support. However, the significant shrinkage in trading volume and the slight decrease in positions indicate that capital sentiment is dominant, and the lack of strong short - term demand growth may suppress further price increases [3]

Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The main contract price of carbonate lithium increased from 111,400 yuan/ton on December 19, 2025, to 114,380 yuan/ton on December 22, 2025, with a 2.68% increase, indicating a slight price increase. The basis weakened from -11,800 yuan/ton to -13,580 yuan/ton, with a 15.08% decline [1][40]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest slightly increased from 668,829 lots to 671,889 lots, with a 0.46% increase, showing an expansion in open interest. The trading volume increased from 928,963 lots to 1,007,441 lots, with an 8.45% increase, indicating an expansion in trading volume [1][40]. *** Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The price of spodumene concentrate rose from 10,800 yuan/ton on December 19, 2025, to 11,025 yuan/ton on December 22, 2025, with a 2.08% increase, indicating rising raw material costs. The price of lepidolite concentrate remained flat. The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium remained stable at 83.52%. In terms of imports, the import volume of spodumene in November 2025 increased by 12% month-on-month to 729,000 physical tons, mainly from a 44% increase in Australia, but decreased from other sources. This implies that the supply side may face structural tightness, but overall supply has increased [2][41]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream products such as power-type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, indicating stable demand. The new energy vehicle sales data (from December 1 - 14) decreased slightly year-on-year but increased month-on-month. The progress of solid-state batteries may boost future demand expectations. Wanrun New Energy upgraded its production line to meet the demand for high-compaction lithium iron phosphate, indicating a shift in demand towards high-end products. The cell prices increased slightly or remained flat, reflecting stable demand [2][41]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of carbonate lithium decreased from 111,469 physical tons on December 12, 2025, to 110,425 physical tons on December 19, 2025, with a 0.94% decline, showing a slight decrease in inventory. The warehouse receipt data was not directly provided, but from the inventory trend, the supply is slightly tight [2][41]. *** Price Trend Judgment It is expected that the carbonate lithium futures price may continue to fluctuate upward in the next one to two weeks. The supply side is supported by rising raw material costs, and the demand side is stable. However, caution should be exercised regarding the cautious purchasing attitude of downstream buyers [3][46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The lithium ore news has ignited the market, but there is a risk of short - term correction after returning to rationality. In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to oscillate and correct. The current rise is mainly driven by sentiment, while the fundamentals do not support the high price. After the sentiment fades, the price may enter an oscillating downward phase [1][3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes** - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 17, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 108,620 yuan/ton, up 8,020 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 7.97% increase. The basis weakened significantly, widening from - 4,800 yuan/ton to - 11,820 yuan/ton, a change of - 7,020 yuan/ton [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased slightly by 0.38% to 668,589 lots. The trading volume expanded sharply by 93.97% to 1,158,611 lots [1]. - **Analysis of Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: The price of spodumene concentrate remained stable at 9,665 yuan/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate stayed at 5,175 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose from 75.34% on December 5, 2025, to 83.52% on December 12, 2025, an increase of 10.86%, indicating an expansion of supply - side capacity. The Lijiagou lithium ore project reached full production in late August 2025, with an annual output of about 180,000 tons of concentrate, strengthening supply stability. The cancellation of mining rights in Yichun, Jiangxi, did not affect the current supply as the relevant mines had stopped production [2]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials rose slightly. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from 146,000 yuan/ton to 146,300 yuan/ton, and that of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose from 39,845 yuan/ton to 40,140 yuan/ton. The sales volume of new energy vehicles declined year - on - year in early December, reflecting weak terminal demand. Wanrun New Energy upgraded its production line to produce high - compaction - density lithium iron phosphate, indicating a shift in demand towards high - end products, but the overall demand growth was limited [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory dropped to 111,469 tons on December 12, a decrease of 1.88%, showing a continuous de - stocking trend [2]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to oscillate and correct. The current rise is mainly driven by sentiment, while the fundamentals do not support the high price. The increase in supply - side capacity utilization and the full production of mines strengthen supply stability, the decline in new energy vehicle sales restrains downstream purchasing willingness, and the current futures price has exceeded the acceptable range of downstream material manufacturers. Although inventory de - stocking provides some support, it is not enough to reverse the loose supply - demand pattern. After the sentiment fades, the price may enter an oscillating downward phase [3]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On December 17, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 108,620 yuan/ton, up 8,020 yuan/ton from December 16, a 7.97% increase; the basis was - 11,820 yuan/ton, down 7,020 yuan/ton from December 16, a - 146.25% change; the position of the main contract was 668,589 lots, up 2,562 lots from December 16, a 0.38% increase; the trading volume of the main contract was 1,158,611 lots, up 561,294 lots from December 16, a 93.97% increase. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 96,800 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from December 16, a 1.04% increase. The prices of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The price of power - type ternary materials was 146,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from December 16, a 0.21% increase; the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 40,140 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan/ton from December 16, a 0.74% increase [5]. - From December 5 to December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose from 75.34% to 83.52%, an 8.18 - percentage - point increase; the lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 113,602 tons to 111,469 tons, a 2,133 - ton decrease, a 1.88% decline. The price of square lithium iron phosphate cells rose from 0.34 yuan/Wh to 0.35 yuan/Wh, a 1.45% increase, while the prices of other types of cells remained unchanged [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotes**: On December 17, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 97,171 yuan/ton, up 1,209 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,600 - 99,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 97,050 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 - 95,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 94,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose significantly, once rising more than 8% during the session, with a closing price of 108,620 yuan/ton. This market trend was mainly driven by market sentiment, triggered by the publicity of canceling 27 mining rights by the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun, Jiangxi. However, the involved lithium - containing porcelain clay mines had stopped production before 2025, so this event had no substantial impact on the current and subsequent supply stability of lithium carbonate. The abnormal price increase mainly reflected emotional fluctuations and was weakly related to industry fundamentals. The current price level has exceeded the acceptable range of most downstream material manufacturers, and market transactions are mainly supported by the rigid - demand purchases of a small number of enterprises [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on December 10, from December 1 to 7, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 185,000 units, a 17% year - on - year decrease and a 10% month - on - month decrease compared with the same period last December. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1,165.7 million units, a 19% year - on - year increase. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 191,000 units, a 22% year - on - year decrease and a 20% month - on - month decrease compared with the same period last December. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 1,394.7 million units, a 27% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Industry News**: In recent years, fast - charging lithium iron phosphate batteries, represented by CATL's Shenxing battery and BYD's blade battery, have accelerated their penetration in the market, and the demand for high - density lithium iron phosphate materials has been increasing. Wanrun New Energy announced that it will upgrade the production line of its "120,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate project" to produce high - compaction - density lithium iron phosphate products. On November 26, Chuanneng Power mentioned in an institutional survey that it holds the mining right of the Lijiagou lithium ore, with a proven ore resource reserve of 3.8812 million tons, an average grade of 1.30%, a production scale of 1.05 million tons of raw ore per year, and an annual output of about 180,000 tons of concentrate. The project basically reached the designed production capacity at the end of August 2025 [9].