Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflows. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It's expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after [1]. - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expectation trading with amplified fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, but strong expectations support the current high price [1][2]. - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage opportunities for month - spread trading [5]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the game between short - term policies and fundamentals continues [6][7]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short term [11]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate next week. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12]. - Tin has strong support in the short - term, and the upward drive is stronger before the macro - sentiment weakens. In the long - term, demand determines the upside space [13]. - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are close to balance in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are rising due to resource - end disturbances, processing fee increases, and macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are cautious [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai copper changed by 60, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1290, and LME inventory decreased by 1750 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The recent rise in copper prices is due to potential US tariffs and investment inflows. Future performance depends on demand and restocking [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 310, and LME inventory decreased by 2000 [1][24]. - **Market Outlook**: Expected trading affects prices. Domestic apparent demand is weak, but strong expectations support high prices [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 20, and LME inventory decreased by 650 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by TC decline and smelter maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and has different trends overseas. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price of Shanghai nickel changed by 3800, and LME inventory decreased by 228 [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term fundamentals are weak, and the policy - fundamentals game continues [6][7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 100 [11]. - **Market Outlook**: Fundamentals are weak, and the price follows nickel price in the short term [11]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot premium remained unchanged, and LME inventory decreased by 1275 [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by production recovery and raw material tightness. Demand is expected to weaken. Prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to low warehouse receipt risk [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot import gain changed by 2456.09, and LME inventory increased by 490 [12][13]. - **Market Outlook**: There are supply risks in major countries. In the short - term, the price has strong support and upward drive. In the long - term, demand determines the upside space [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis changed by - 40, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand are close to balance in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 12000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 610 [19]. - **Market Outlook**: Prices are rising due to resource - end disturbances and other factors. Downstream buyers are cautious [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc market shows a complex structure. The LME zinc has structural risks with a high basis difference, while the domestic zinc inventory reduction rate has slowed down. With the opening of the domestic zinc ingot export window, the Shanghai-London ratio has stabilized. Considering the positive atmosphere in the non-ferrous metal market, the Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.06% to 22,362 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total long - position of 213,400 lots in unilateral trading. The LME zinc 3S fell 7.5 to 3,027 dollars/ton, with a total long - position of 221,900 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,190 yuan/ton, with Shanghai basis at - 55 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis at - 55 yuan/ton, Guangdong basis at - 90 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread at 35 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic and Overseas Structure**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 162,100 tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 65,800 tons. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 34,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 9,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was 225.89 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 56.18 dollars/ton. The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio after excluding exchange was 1.039, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 110 dollars/dry ton. The zinc concentrate port inventory was 270,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 628,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts including US fiscal and debt data (such as monthly fiscal revenue, expenditure, and deficit MA12, ratio of US national debt to GDP), Fed's balance sheet data (assets and liabilities), dollar liquidity, and manufacturing PMI data of China and the US, as well as new orders and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [15][17][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 10.0% and a month - on - month change of - 8.8%. The zinc ore net import was 505,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 25.2% and a month - on - month change of 8.6%. The total domestic zinc ore supply was 541,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 2.2% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In September 2025, the zinc ingot output was 600,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 20.2% and a month - on - month change of - 4.2%. The zinc ingot net import was 23,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of - 16.2%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.3% and a month - on - month change of - 4.7% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial Demand**: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively. Their raw material inventories were 13,000 tons, 13,000 tons, and 3,000 tons respectively, and their finished product inventories were 370,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 5,000 tons respectively [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 622,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of 3.9% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 500 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to September was a surplus of 143,200 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to July was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Basis Spread**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 162,100 tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 65,800 tons, with an inner - market Shanghai basis of - 55 yuan/ton and a continuous - contract minus first - contract spread of - 40 yuan/ton. Overseas, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 34,700 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 9,900 tons, with an outer - market cash - 3S contract basis of 225.89 dollars/ton and a 3 - 15 spread of 56.18 dollars/ton [60][63]. - **Cross - Market Spread**: The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio after excluding exchange was 1.039, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net long positions of Shanghai zinc turned slightly long, the net long positions of LME zinc investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is short - term bullish [67].