Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Macro cooling and continuous LME zinc warehousing led to a downward shift in the center of LME zinc. On the 18th, LME inventory increased by 3,550 tons to 39,975 tons, with warehousing in Singapore, Kaohsiung, and Hong Kong. The low - inventory concern eased, the Cash - 3M Back structure dropped to 104.97, and the SHFE/LME ratio recovered to 7.5. The domestic non - ferrous market continued to correct, and SHFE zinc broke below the middle Bollinger Band. The main contract closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.58%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 20 yuan/ton [7]. - The intraday market weakened compared to the previous day, but the spot premium increased. The Shanghai market had a premium of 180 yuan/ton over the December contract, the Tianjin market reported a discount of 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market reported a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the January 2026 contract. Some zinc ingot exports led to a significant decrease in inventory, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly [7]. - With the reduction of northern mines in China and the concentrated release of smelters' winter stockpiling demand, the supply of domestic zinc ore was tight. The panic buying by smelters pushed down the processing fees. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decline slightly month - on - month. The tightening of the ore end was transmitted to the ingot end, providing support for zinc prices. In the short term, zinc prices were expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton, and the current price was at the lower end of the range. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,200 yuan [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review - Futures market data: For SHFE zinc 2512, the opening price was 22,460 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,310 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,465 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,265 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 0.58%, with a position of 82,326 and a position change of 76,806. For SHFE zinc 2601, the opening price was 22,495 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,330 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,495 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,295 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or 0.65%, with a position of 82,373 and a position change of - 9,077. For SHFE zinc 2602, the opening price was 22,540 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,345 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,540 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,305 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan or 0.73%, with a position of 29,010 and a position change of - 49,321 [7]. 2. Industry News - On November 18, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated in the range of 22,435 - 22,555 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand in the range of 22,455 - 22,575 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc in the range of 22,365 - 22,485 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 150 - 160 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,435 - 22,475 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract and a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The mainstream in the Ningbo area quoted against the 2512 contract. In the first period, the pre - sale of Qilin brand quoted a delivered premium of 180 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded in the range of 22,240 - 22,430 yuan/ton, Zijin brand in the range of 22,470 - 22,560 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots around 22,170 - 22,270 yuan/ton. The Huludao brand was quoted at 23,320 yuan/ton. The common 0 zinc quoted a discount of 50 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, and Zijin brand quoted a premium of 180 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract. The Tianjin market reported a discount of about 50 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8]. - In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded in the range of 22,215 - 22,350 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a discount of 70 - 25 yuan/ton to the 2601 contract and a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. In the first period, holders of Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, and Lanxing brands quoted a discount of 70 - 25 yuan/ton. In the second period, Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing brands quoted a discount of 70 - 35 yuan/ton to the net price [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented figures such as the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots (in ten thousand tons), LME zinc inventory (in tons), the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE month - to - month spreads, with data sources including Wind and SMM [12][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc market shows a complex structure. The LME zinc has structural risks with a high basis difference, while the domestic zinc inventory reduction rate has slowed down. With the opening of the domestic zinc ingot export window, the Shanghai-London ratio has stabilized. Considering the positive atmosphere in the non-ferrous metal market, the Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.06% to 22,362 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total long - position of 213,400 lots in unilateral trading. The LME zinc 3S fell 7.5 to 3,027 dollars/ton, with a total long - position of 221,900 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,190 yuan/ton, with Shanghai basis at - 55 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis at - 55 yuan/ton, Guangdong basis at - 90 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread at 35 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic and Overseas Structure**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 162,100 tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 65,800 tons. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 34,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 9,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was 225.89 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 56.18 dollars/ton. The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio after excluding exchange was 1.039, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 110 dollars/dry ton. The zinc concentrate port inventory was 270,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 628,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts including US fiscal and debt data (such as monthly fiscal revenue, expenditure, and deficit MA12, ratio of US national debt to GDP), Fed's balance sheet data (assets and liabilities), dollar liquidity, and manufacturing PMI data of China and the US, as well as new orders and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [15][17][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 10.0% and a month - on - month change of - 8.8%. The zinc ore net import was 505,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 25.2% and a month - on - month change of 8.6%. The total domestic zinc ore supply was 541,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 2.2% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In September 2025, the zinc ingot output was 600,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 20.2% and a month - on - month change of - 4.2%. The zinc ingot net import was 23,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of - 16.2%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.3% and a month - on - month change of - 4.7% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial Demand**: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively. Their raw material inventories were 13,000 tons, 13,000 tons, and 3,000 tons respectively, and their finished product inventories were 370,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 5,000 tons respectively [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 622,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of 3.9% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 500 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to September was a surplus of 143,200 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to July was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Basis Spread**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 162,100 tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 65,800 tons, with an inner - market Shanghai basis of - 55 yuan/ton and a continuous - contract minus first - contract spread of - 40 yuan/ton. Overseas, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 34,700 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 9,900 tons, with an outer - market cash - 3S contract basis of 225.89 dollars/ton and a 3 - 15 spread of 56.18 dollars/ton [60][63]. - **Cross - Market Spread**: The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio after excluding exchange was 1.039, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net long positions of Shanghai zinc turned slightly long, the net long positions of LME zinc investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is short - term bullish [67].