Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report from CITIC Securities is that the recent short-term adjustment in the securities sector does not indicate the end of the market trend, as the sector is currently supported by strong fundamentals at a low valuation level [1] - The report identifies two potential upward paths for the securities sector under a slow bull market: one is based on the stabilization of trading volume leading to valuation increases, and the other is driven by unexpected financial policy catalysts that could break through valuation ceilings [1] - Both scenarios suggest that the brokerage market will not be absent, and a window for left-side positioning is gradually approaching [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities indicates that the expectation for the U.S. uranium replenishment cycle is strengthening, which further reinforces the logic of the uranium mining sector from the demand side [2] - The report highlights that due to rigid supply-side bottlenecks, uranium prices are expected to remain in an upward channel [2] - The recommendation continues to favor domestic uranium suppliers in the U.S. and trading partners, as they are likely to benefit first from the tight supply expectations [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities emphasizes the upcoming release of Tesla's Optimus Gen3 in the first quarter, which is expected to maintain market anticipation for the robotics sector [3] - The report notes that Tesla's supply chain is gradually entering a verification phase, focusing on quality segments to capture certainty and core changes [3]

Group 1: Copper - The copper price has significantly increased recently, driven by the expected potential refined copper tariff in the US, which causes a phased inventory transfer to the US, and the inflow of investment funds. The market remains optimistic about copper due to low inventories in non - US regions and continuous restocking in the US. In the future, the copper price will depend on the terminal demand's ability to accept high prices, the continuation of US restocking, and the recovery of Chinese demand. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after the Spring Festival [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - The expected trading dominates the changes in the futures and spot prices, with amplified price fluctuations. The import of primary aluminum decreased significantly in November, while the export of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and related items increased. The actual domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected. The automobile sales are poor and are expected to decline further after the subsidy withdrawal in 2026, but the PV installation volume has rebounded better than expected, boosting short - term demand. The inventory of aluminum ingots and products has accumulated, the apparent demand has decreased, and the basis has rebounded but remains at a low level. The strong expectation supports the current high price [1][2]. Group 3: Zinc - On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline. Domestic zinc ore will be in short supply from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was officially put into production, and other smelters have limited increments. In December, many smelters had maintenance, and it is expected that they will resume production in mid - January. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas, European demand is average while US zinc ingot imports have increased recently. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the monthly spread [5]. Group 4: Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel has slightly declined. On the demand side, it is generally weak, but the premium of Jinchuan nickel is relatively strong. In terms of inventory, the domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and about 30,000 tons were delivered to LME warehouses this week, mainly in Asian warehouses. In the short term, the fundamental situation is weak. The Indonesian energy and mining minister did not disclose the nickel production quota for 2026 but said it would be adjusted according to industry demand, so the short - term policy and fundamentals will continue to compete [6][7]. Group 5: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mill production schedules remain at a high level. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron has slightly stabilized, and the price of chromium iron has remained unchanged. In terms of inventory, the high - level inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipts have remained the same. The fundamentals are generally weak, and the news of the Indonesian quota is the main driver of recent prices, following the nickel price in the short term [10]. Group 6: Lead - This week, the lead price has fluctuated at a high level following the macro trend. On the supply side, primary production is driven by profits, with an expected production recovery of 1 - 1.5 tons in January. The concentrate production has decreased seasonally, and the concentrate has become tight with no hope of a TC rebound. The recycling plants have resumed production after the environmental inspection at the beginning of the month, and recyclers are starting to hold up prices. On the demand side, the battery production rate is high this week, but the monthly battery finished - product inventory has accumulated, and demand is expected to weaken. The lead ingot market has been tight since the end of September, and although the supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated by the recovery of recycling production, it is difficult to accumulate inventory due to the high - rate production of battery factories. The downstream's low - price restocking provides support. The refined - scrap price difference has returned to - 150. The new national standard has suppressed the consumption of two - wheeled vehicle batteries, and the year - end inventory counting has led to a dull trading environment. It is expected that the domestic and foreign lead prices will remain volatile next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [11]. Group 7: Tin - This week, the tin price has increased. On the supply side, domestic tin production has remained the same. Overseas, production in Wa State may be affected in the first quarter due to equipment problems in local mines, and the export quota issue in Indonesia is still under negotiation. The war in the DRC and Rwanda has not affected local mining production, but border risks still exist. On the demand side, downstream restocking willingness is strong due to rigid orders and the expectation of pre - installation before the cancellation of PV tax rebates, leading to a significant decline in domestic inventory, while overseas LME inventory has fluctuated. In the short term, there are supply risks in major global suppliers, and it is difficult to accumulate large - scale inventory under the expectation of domestic export rush. Before the macro sentiment weakens, the upward driving force is stronger. The risk of going long on the fundamental side lies in whether the overseas LME inventory will accumulate on a large scale. In the long term, demand determines the upper price limit. Tin can be a multi - allocation in non - ferrous metals in the first quarter, but if the macro situation falls short of expectations, the price may decline significantly in the second half of the year [11][12]. Group 8: Industrial Silicon - This week, some factories in Shaanxi and Xinjiang have increased production, while some in Xinjiang Yili and Qinghai have decreased production again. As large factories are gradually entering the maintenance period, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance. In the short term, the supply - demand balance is expected to keep the price fluctuating with the cost. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the low operating rate is expected to keep the price oscillating at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [15]. Group 9: Lithium Carbonate - Recently, potential disturbances in domestic and foreign resource - ends, the increase in iron - lithium processing fees, and the macro sentiment have jointly driven up the lithium price. On the raw material side, the available supply is still tight, and the price is relatively firm. The auction of Albemarle's concentrate has further boosted market sentiment. On the lithium salt side, the sales strategy of upstream lithium salt factories is changing, with a decrease in the proportion of long - term contracts and an increase in the proportion and willingness to sell spot orders. Downstream, material factories are cautious about high prices and tend to replenish inventory rigidly after the price drops to a relatively low level. In the second half of the week, the trading volume of orders below 140,000 has slightly increased. Currently, some mid - stream inventories have become visible, with the quotes of first - tier spodumene - based electric carbon at - 1500~ - 1000 and second - and third - tier at - 1800~ - 1500 [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflows. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It's expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after [1]. - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expectation trading with amplified fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, but strong expectations support the current high price [1][2]. - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage opportunities for month - spread trading [5]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the game between short - term policies and fundamentals continues [6][7]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short term [11]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate next week. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12]. - Tin has strong support in the short - term, and the upward drive is stronger before the macro - sentiment weakens. In the long - term, demand determines the upside space [13]. - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are close to balance in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are rising due to resource - end disturbances, processing fee increases, and macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are cautious [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai copper changed by 60, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1290, and LME inventory decreased by 1750 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The recent rise in copper prices is due to potential US tariffs and investment inflows. Future performance depends on demand and restocking [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 310, and LME inventory decreased by 2000 [1][24]. - **Market Outlook**: Expected trading affects prices. Domestic apparent demand is weak, but strong expectations support high prices [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 20, and LME inventory decreased by 650 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by TC decline and smelter maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and has different trends overseas. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price of Shanghai nickel changed by 3800, and LME inventory decreased by 228 [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term fundamentals are weak, and the policy - fundamentals game continues [6][7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 100 [11]. - **Market Outlook**: Fundamentals are weak, and the price follows nickel price in the short term [11]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot premium remained unchanged, and LME inventory decreased by 1275 [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by production recovery and raw material tightness. Demand is expected to weaken. Prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to low warehouse receipt risk [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the spot import gain changed by 2456.09, and LME inventory increased by 490 [12][13]. - **Market Outlook**: There are supply risks in major countries. In the short - term, the price has strong support and upward drive. In the long - term, demand determines the upside space [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis changed by - 40, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand are close to balance in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From January 6 - 12, 2026, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 12000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 610 [19]. - **Market Outlook**: Prices are rising due to resource - end disturbances and other factors. Downstream buyers are cautious [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the energy and chemical market, highlighting that the US restocking falls short of expectations, leading to a weakening of the chemical industry landscape. Multiple factors, including geopolitical events, policy uncertainties, and supply - demand dynamics, impact different energy and chemical products, resulting in various price trends and market outlooks for each product [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: On May 29, SC2507 closed at 467.1 yuan/barrel (+3.11%), and Brent2508 at 63.36 dollars/barrel (-1.51%). Kazakhstan's inability to cut production strengthens the expectation of OPEC+ quota increase in July, suppressing oil prices. However, short - term macro and geopolitical factors are positive. It is expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Asphalt**: The main futures closed at 3526 yuan/ton. With various negative factors such as high - yield US debt crisis, OPEC+ over - production, and sufficient domestic raw material supply, the asphalt price is over - valued and expected to decline. Although demand expectations are improving, the upside space is limited [6][7]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton. Affected by factors like OPEC+ over - production, increased import tariffs in China, and reduced demand in Egypt, it is over - valued and expected to decline with a weakening trend [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main contract closed at 3530 yuan/ton. It follows the crude oil price fluctuations. Currently, it has low valuation and is affected by factors such as green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution [10]. - **LPG**: On May 29, PG2507 closed at 4120 yuan/ton (+0.56%). With the weakening of crude oil and the reduction of Saudi CP contract prices, the cost support weakens. It is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate [8][10]. - **PX**: On May 29, PX CFR China Taiwan was 852(16) dollars/ton. Short - term crude oil weakness squeezes PX cost. Considering supply and demand, it is expected to continue to consolidate [12]. - **PTA**: On May 29, the spot price was 4960(93) yuan/ton. With continuous inventory reduction and the support of major suppliers, it is expected to be relatively strong and fluctuate [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: On May 29, the price was in a low - level upward trend. The overall supply increases while demand decreases, and it is expected to fluctuate during the maintenance and inventory - reduction period [14][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: On May 29, it rose following the suspension of US tariffs. With the decline of printing, dyeing, and weaving operations and the shortfall of US restocking, it is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - **Bottle Chips**: On May 29, the price of polyester raw material futures rebounded. With the decline of downstream operations and the shortfall of US restocking, the processing fee expansion is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [16][18]. - **Methanol**: On May 29, the futures price fluctuated. With the increase of port inventory and supply pressure, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [21]. - **Urea**: On May 29, the factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1810(+0) and 1860(+0) respectively. With the increase of supply and weak domestic demand, the spot price may be under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [21]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: On May 29, the main contract fluctuated. Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, oil price increase concerns, and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [24]. - **PP**: On May 29, the main contract fluctuated. With limited macro - level boosting, oil price increase concerns, and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [25][26]. - **PVC**: The benchmark price of East - China calcium - carbide PVC was 4730(+0) yuan/ton. With short - term inventory reduction due to maintenance and long - term pressure from new capacity, weak domestic demand, and potential export decline, it is expected to be under pressure [27]. - **Caustic Soda**: On May 29, the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2750(+0) yuan/ton. With supply and demand increasing in late May and potentially weakening in June, the spot price may peak, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) at - 7 with a change of - 12, and WTI (M1 - M2) at 0.69 with a change of 0.05 [29]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 126 with a change of - 33, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [30]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA at - 3 with a change of - 4 [31]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions the monitoring of methanol, urea, styrene, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle chips, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda, but specific data details are not fully presented [32][44][56]