张世骄（联系人） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 有色氛围积极， 伦锌交割品紧缺 锌月报 从业资格号：F03120988 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 2025/10/10 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 ◆ 价格回顾：9月1日至10月10日期间，沪锌指数下探回升，收涨0.25%至22290元/吨，总持仓减少1.25万手。伦锌收涨6.53%至 3002.5美元/吨。截至报告期末，SMM0#锌锭均价22140元/吨，上海基差-35元/吨，天津基差-35元/吨，广东基差-45元/吨，沪粤 价差10元/吨。上期所锌锭期货库存录得5.89万吨，内盘上海地区基差-35元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-35元/吨。LME锌锭库存 录得3.83万吨，LME锌锭注销仓单录得1.54万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差59.11美元/吨，3-15价差82.75美元/吨。剔汇后盘面沪伦比 价录得1.034，锌锭进口盈亏为-4167.68元/吨。据上海有色数据，国 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The low PPI in the US since June has strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the US dollar. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,250 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.36%, with increased volume and decreased positions. The domestic fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and it will take time for the consumer side to improve. The inflection point of social inventory reduction has not appeared, and Shanghai zinc fluctuates in the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - US PPI hit a new low since June, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts and causing the US dollar to fall. The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,250 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.36%, with increased volume and decreased positions. The 09 - 10 spread was -65 yuan/ton. In August, the refined zinc output was 626,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%. The refined zinc output in September was slightly adjusted down but is still expected to be above 600,000 tons. The logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China have been lifted, and the galvanizing start - up rate is expected to increase month - on - month. The inventory in Tianjin has decreased slightly, while the inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong has increased. The total social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions has increased by 0.21 million tons to 15.42 million tons. LME zinc inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 50,825 tons. The concern about overseas refined zinc supply has caused a spot premium, and the 0 - 3B has strengthened to $23.01/ton, supporting LME zinc [7]. 2. Industry News - On September 11, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,205 - 22,265 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,325 - 22,385 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,135 - 22,195 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton over the SMM average price. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par with the 2510 contract, Huize was at a premium of 60 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan was at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,205 - 22,255 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 35 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the first trading period, Qilin was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Anning was at a discount of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par with the 2510 contract, and Jiulong was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract for delivery [8]. - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 22,150 - 22,240 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 22,200 - 22,260 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,110 - 22,170 yuan/ton, and the price of Huludao was 22,980 yuan/ton. The ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 40 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and Zijin was at a discount of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 20 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8]. - In Guangdong, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,090 - 22,190 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong has widened [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, the SHFE monthly spread, the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources including Wind and SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [13][14]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc futures market showed a downward trend with the main contract closing at 22,085 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased by 9,873 lots to 84,304 lots. The LME zinc inventory increased for two consecutive days, and the domestic social inventory increased as expected. The zinc ingot supply remained strong, while the consumption was squeezed by the off - season and weak exports. The market was expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: Different contracts of Shanghai zinc (2507, 2508, 2509) all declined. The main contract 2508 opened at 22,110 yuan/ton, closed at 22,085 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%. The open interest decreased by 9,873 lots to 84,304 lots, and the monthly spread C strengthened to 75 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory Situation**: The LME zinc inventory in Singapore increased by 5,200 tons to 118,600 tons. The domestic social inventory on Monday increased by 0.28 million tons to 9.31 million tons [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The zinc concentrate processing fee continued to rise. The import zinc concentrate index was 66.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate weekly processing fee rose to 3,800 yuan/ton. The overall zinc ingot supply was strong. The domestic consumption was affected by the off - season and weak exports, and the off - season inventory accumulation trend was gradually realized [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The market tested the support at the 22,000 yuan integer mark, and it was expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Premium in Different Regions**: On July 15, 2025, in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong, the prices of 0 and 1 zinc and their premiums to different contracts were reported. For example, in Shanghai, 0 zinc mainstream成交价 was between 22,325 - 22,530 yuan/ton, and the premium to the 2508 contract was different for different brands [8][17]. 3. Data Overview - **Relevant Charts**: The report included charts such as the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of the two - market zinc, and SHFE monthly spread [13][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Report's Core View - Zinc alloy开工率下滑，隐性库存负反馈可能发生，锌锭社会库存小幅增长；TC整体稳定，海外锌矿发运量提升，供给压力不改；消费边际下滑，现货升水大幅回落，锌价上涨缺乏基本面驱动力，社会库存持续增加将形成较大向下压力 [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - As of June 20, 2025, the LME zinc price increased by 0.57% to $2,625 per ton compared to last week, and the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.14% to 21,845 yuan per ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$22.95 per ton last week to -$24.65 per ton [1] - As of the week ending June 20, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates by SMM remained stable at 3,600 yuan per metal ton compared to last week, and the weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates increased by $2 per ton to $55 per ton. Recent zinc ore tender results in North China were 5,500 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton compared to the previous period, and the New century zinc ore tender result was $40 per dry ton. The zinc ore import window remained closed, but overseas zinc ore departure data increased [1] - Specifically, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 1.46% to 58.6% compared to last week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 4.72% to 55.12%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.08% to 59% [1] - According to SMM statistics, as of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major areas monitored by SMM was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons compared to the same period last week; the warrant inventory decreased by 229 tons to 8,743 tons compared to the same period last week; the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,775 tons to 126,225 tons compared to last week [1] Profit - As of June 19, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises in the industry (excluding by - product income) was -500 yuan per ton, and the profit was about 1,000 yuan per ton after adding by - product income [2] Market Analysis - The operating rate of zinc alloy decreased significantly last week, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur, with a slight increase in the social inventory of zinc ingots. The TC remained stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume continued to increase. Although the room for further increase was limited, the strong trend remained unchanged. There was still smelting profit at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm was high, so the supply pressure remained. The overall consumption showed a marginal downward trend, the spot premium dropped significantly, and there was a lack of fundamental driving force for the zinc price to rise. If the social inventory continued to increase, it would exert significant downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Zinc ingot spot premium has significantly declined, and the low inventory that originally supported zinc prices has shown signs of inventory accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, there may be room for the zinc price to fall. The consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline after May [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$22.27/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,880 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 205 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 225 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On May 15, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,885 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 152,385 lots, down 66,723 lots, and the position was 99,050 lots, down 5,891 lots. The highest price was 22,915 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,545 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 15, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 86,300 tons, up 3,000 tons from the same period last week. The LME zinc inventory was 165,175 tons, down 1,875 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Supply**: Due to a large number of imported zinc ingots arriving, downstream procurement enthusiasm has declined, and the spot premium has further dropped. Zijin's Russian mine plans to shut down in June, and overseas production in Q1 was lower than expected, but the oversupply of zinc ingots is still expected. Although the TC increase is limited, smelting is still profitable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic imported ore inventory is sufficient, and short - term TC does not have the conditions to be lowered [4] - **Demand**: The consumption in May may face challenges. As the window for rushed exports is approaching the end and there has been over - consumption, there may be a month - on - month decline in consumption after May [4] - **Price outlook**: The low inventory that originally supported zinc prices has shown signs of inventory accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, there may be room for the zinc price to fall [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]