南华期货锌风险管理报告 2025年9月25日 南华有⾊⾦属研究团队 肖宇⾮ 投资咨询证号： Z0018441 林嘉玮 从业资格证号：F03145451 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290号 锌价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 预测区间 | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 22045 | 21000-23500 | 7.74% | 3.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 锌风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | | 多 | 做空沪锌主力期货合约 | 沪锌主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 22700 | | | | | 暂无 | 沪锌期权 | 暂无 | 暂无 | 暂无 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锌主力期货合约 | 沪锌主力期货合约 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The trading sentiment in the zinc market has cooled significantly in the previous trading session, with long upper shadows in the past four days indicating weak short - term price support. While the fundamental logic remains unchanged, the supply side exerts continuous pressure, and the demand side remains stable in the short term. The inventory and spot traders still provide support, but significant short - to medium - term price increases are unlikely. It is advisable to wait and observe the impact of macro - policies and when the loose supply will confirm the bearish logic [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Zinc Price Volatility and Forecast - The latest zinc price is 22,190 yuan/ton, with a forecast range of 21,500 - 22,800 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 21.19%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 74.8% [1] Zinc Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For those with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short 75% of the Shanghai Zinc main futures contract at an entry range of 22,700 yuan/ton [1] Raw Material Management - For those with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, it is recommended to long 50% of the Shanghai Zinc main futures contract at an entry range of 21,700 yuan/ton [1] Factors Affecting Zinc Prices Bullish Factors - The inventory is at a historically low level; there are interest - rate cuts and consumption - friendly policies; overseas mines are affected by tariffs [3] Bearish Factors - There is sustained macro - panic sentiment; downstream buyers purchase at low prices, resulting in insufficient price support; the import window is open, and the supply is expected to be sufficient [4] Zinc Price and Inventory Data Zinc Spot Prices - The SMM 0 zinc average price is 22,850 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.35%) from the previous day; the SMM 1 zinc average price is 22,780 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.35%) [5] Zinc Futures Prices - The Shanghai Zinc main contract price is 22,190 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (0.07%); the LME zinc closing price is 2,619 US dollars/ton, up 2.5 US dollars (0.1%) [5] Zinc Futures Inventory - The total Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 1,903 tons, down 150 tons (-7.31%); the total LME zinc inventory is 170,650 tons, down 750 tons (-0.44%); the total LME registered zinc warehouse receipts are 103,875 tons, down 17,150 tons (-14.17%) [5]