| | | | 第一部分 前言概要 2 | | --- | | 2 | | 2 | | 2 | | 第二部分 基本面情况 3 | | 3 | | 5 | | 三、1 月产量下滑，预计受春节假期影响 2 月产量维持低位 6 | | 终端消费 8 | | （一）消费电子有望温和增长 8 | | （二）光伏抢装结束，订单快速下滑 9 | | （三）长期锡化工消费或有拖累 10 | | 第三部分后市展望及策略推荐 12 | | 免责声明 13 | 有色板块研发报告 锡 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 宏观情绪与需求预期拉扯，锡价宽幅震荡 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 2 页 共 13 页 有色板块研发报告 锡 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 第二部分 基本面情况 第 3 页 共 13 页 锡 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 图 1：沪锡走势 单位：元/吨 图 2：伦锡走势 单位：美元/吨 230000.00 280000.00 330000.00 380000.00 430000.00 480000.00 24000.00 29000.00 34000.00 39000.00 440 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of tin are both weak, but the demand is greatly affected by the holiday. Domestic inventory is expected to rise, and the rebound of tin is weak, possibly continuing to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the holiday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - In December, the domestic tin ore import volume was 17,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. The tin ore imported from Myanmar was 6,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 438.68%. The recovery of the ore end is relatively slow, and the domestic tin ore supply remains tight in the short term, with processing fees at a low level [2] - As of the week of February 9, the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 10,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2] 3.2 Supply - In January, the refined tin output was 15,100 tons, lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 5.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. The raw material inventory of smelters is generally less than 30 days. The operating rate of domestic mainstream smelting enterprises remains high, but some enterprises have gradually reduced their loads or arranged maintenance due to holiday factors. The resumption of work of smelters from late February to early March may be relatively slow [3] - In December, China's refined tin import volume was 1,548 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.24% and a month - on - month increase of 29.54%. The import window was basically closed in December. In December, China exported 2,763 tons of refined tin, a year - on - year increase of 32.58% and a month - on - month increase of 41.84%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is oscillating downward, and tin imports continue to incur losses [3] - On January 21, 2026, Indonesia began to export tin ingots. In January, it exported 2,670 tons of tin ingots. With the subsequent quota gradually issued, the export volume will increase month - on - month, but limited by the quota ceiling of 60,000 tons, the annual supply may increase moderately [3] 3.3 Consumption - Recently, as tin prices fell, most downstream enterprises entered the market to replenish stocks, which may lead to a decline in social inventory. Last week, spot trading was relatively active, and some downstream enterprises entered the market for rigid - demand replenishment as the price dropped. However, the stocking of the downstream solder industry has basically ended this week, and other consumer industries have also completed their purchases one after another and are ready for the holiday. It is expected that spot transactions in the downstream will weaken, demand may drop to the bottom, and domestic inventory is expected to increase again [4] 3.4 Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of February 6, the tin inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,718 tons to 8,750 tons. As of January 23, the social inventory in three places monitored by SMM was 9,898 tons, ending a three - consecutive - increase trend. The average price of Yangtze River spot tin was 356,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66,970 yuan, a decline of 15.81%. The basis of Yangtze River spot to the main tin contract fluctuated, and the basis was at a discount of 3,710 yuan last Friday [4] 3.5 LME Spot and Inventory - As of February 6, the weekly inventory of LME tin decreased by 10 tons to 7,085 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the past five years. The spot discount of LME tin narrowed, and the discount was 157 US dollars last weekend [4] 3.6 Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas tin inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a relatively high level in the past five years. The spot is deeply discounted, and the supply - demand situation of overseas tin has not changed much. In December, the domestic tin ore import volume increased month - on - month, but the import of tin concentrate from Myanmar decreased month - on - month. The recovery process of Myanmar's tin mines is slow, and the domestic ore import volume is still difficult to effectively supplement. The short - term supply shortage of domestic tin ore has limited marginal improvement, and the domestic tin ore processing fee remains at a low level [5] - Affected by raw material shortages and the holiday, the output in February declined. In December, both the import and export of domestic refined tin increased month - on - month, and there was a net export in the month. Currently, the price ratio is oscillating downward, and the loss of tin imports has intensified. Indonesia's export volume increased year - on - year in January, and the quota in 2026 increased slightly. The future export volume may increase moderately [5] - The stocking of the downstream solder industry has basically ended this week, and other consumer industries have also completed their purchases one after another and are ready for the holiday. It is expected that spot transactions in the downstream will weaken, demand may drop to the bottom, and domestic inventory is expected to increase again [5]