Supply Dynamics - The supply side has been a crucial factor influencing tin prices, with prices surpassing 290,000 yuan due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, reaching a six-month high [2] - Following the reduction of supply disruptions in Indonesia, tin prices have retreated to around 280,000 yuan, but the market is currently overestimating the price based on valuation lines [2] - China's imports of tin ore and concentrates for September 2025 reached 8,713.60 physical tons (approximately 3,444.62 metal tons), marking a year-on-year decline of 11.87% and a month-on-month decline of 26.59%, the lowest level this year [2] Import Trends - In September, imports from Myanmar increased significantly, with 3,136.76 tons (approximately 848.91 metal tons) imported, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.55% and a month-on-month increase of 43.00% [5] - Other major supply countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, and Nigeria, saw a notable decline in supply, with total imports from these countries down 22.30% year-on-year and 36.66% month-on-month [7] - The decline in imports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Australia was attributed to shipping delays rather than a decrease in local production [8] Market Outlook - The overall supply situation remains tight, with domestic tin supply not significantly improving, which continues to restrict the operating levels of smelting enterprises [9] - Despite a seasonal recovery in production expected in October, the motivation for sustained increases in operating rates is lacking due to ongoing tightness in raw material supply and low processing fees [9] - The market is closely monitoring the recovery of production in the Wa region of Myanmar, which is gradually returning to normal, although current output remains below expectations [9]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Fed's September rate - cut expectation is almost certain, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is slow, but weak demand causes the total inventory of tin ingots at home and abroad to increase month - on - month, which may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 265,000 - 270,000 and the pressure level around 276,000 - 280,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 33,300 - 34,000 and the pressure level around 35,000 - 36,000 for London tin [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Supply - side - Andrada Mining's second concentrator in Namibia started commissioning in late August with a maximum monthly ore - processing capacity of 40,000 tons [1] - In Myanmar's Wa State, the first batch of 40 - 50 mines paid fees to resume mining, with an initial incremental output of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period [1] - Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in Congo - Kinshasa, with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively, and power system repair taking more than 3 months [1] - Thailand's suspension of Myanmar tin ore transit exports to China in June may affect 500 - 1,000 metal tons, which may increase (decrease) China's tin ore production (import) in September [1] - The domestic tin concentrate processing fee fluctuates and declines, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [1] - China's recycled tin production in September decreases month - on - month [1] - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi decline (remain flat) compared with last week [1] - Yunnan Tin will conduct a shutdown maintenance of smelting equipment for no more than 45 days starting from August 30 [1] - China's refined tin production (inventory) in August decreases (increases) month - on - month [1] - Indonesia's mining license approval is affected by corruption investigations, which may compress medium - and long - term export quotas. PT Timah plans to increase production and sales in 2025, but its September exports may decrease month - on - month, which may increase (decrease) China's refined tin imports (exports) in September [1] - The refined tin inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increases compared with last week [1] - China's tin ingot social inventory decreases compared with last week [1] - The refined tin inventory in the London Metal Exchange increases compared with last week [1] - The total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory increases compared with last week [1] Demand - side - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic welding tape decreases month - on - month, which may increase (decrease) China's tin solder production capacity utilization rate (inventory) in September [1] - China's welding tape imports (exports) in September may decrease (increase) month - on - month [1] - China's tin - plated sheet production (imports, exports) in September may decrease month - on - month [1] - China's lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate declines compared with last week [1] Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures** - On September 3, 2025, the closing price was 273,980, down 860 from the previous day; the trading volume was 70,585 lots, up 1,086 from the previous day; the open interest was 34,947 lots, down 948 from the previous day; the inventory was 7,263 tons, up 144 from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai tin basis was - 480, up 460 from the previous day; the difference between the near - month and the first - continued contract was - 320, down 100 from the previous day; the difference between the first - continued and the second - continued contract was - 200, down 110 from the previous day; the difference between the second - continued and the third - continued contract was 60, up 110 from the previous day [1] - **London Tin Futures** - On September 3, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month tin futures was 34,620, down 115 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 87, down 53.01 from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 242, down 59 from the previous day [1] - The global inventory of LME tin was 2,195 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the registered warrants were 1,985, unchanged from the previous day; the cancelled warrants were 210, unchanged from the previous day; the ratio of Shanghai to London tin prices was 7.89, unchanged from the previous day [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - This week, tin prices fluctuated. In terms of supply, the slow resumption of production in the Wa State mining area in Myanmar and blocked land transportation in Thailand continued to limit import supplements. Yunnan faced intensified raw - material shortages, and Jiangxi had a broken scrap - tin supply chain. In terms of demand, it was the off - season, with traditional consumption areas weak. Although AI computing power increased some tin demand, it had limited impact on overall demand. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly. Overall, short - term supply was tight and demand was weak, but as Myanmar's resumption of production advanced, tin prices were expected to fluctuate. The short - term operating range of domestic tin prices was 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin prices was 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [11][12][13] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost Side**: The slow resumption of production in the Wa State mining area in Myanmar and blocked land transportation in Thailand restricted imports. In June 2025, China's tin concentrate imports were 11,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.08%. From January to June, the total imports were 62,130 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.41%. The mineral exploitation license in the Wa State of Myanmar had been approved, and significant recovery of tin ore supply was expected in the fourth quarter [12] - **Supply Side**: Yunnan was constrained by raw - material shortages, with smelters' tin ore inventories generally less than 30 days. High competition for procurement led to high processing costs for low - grade ores, and rising power costs dampened production willingness. Some manufacturers planned maintenance. Jiangxi faced a broken scrap - tin supply chain, with the secondary material circulation volume down over 30% year - on - year, restricting refined production capacity. In July 2025, refined tin output was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% and a year - on - year increase of 0.09%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 87,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.95% [12] - **Demand Side**: Off - season consumption was poor. Downstream factories' orders were low, and they were cautious about restocking tin raw materials. In different fields, photovoltaic tin - bar orders in East China declined after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, and the production schedule of home - appliance enterprises in July decreased significantly. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics grew weakly, and the market was wait - and - see. The demand for tin in tin - plated sheets and the chemical industry was relatively stable [12] - **Summary**: Short - term supply was tight, demand was weak, and tin prices were expected to fluctuate, with domestic tin prices in the range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton and LME tin prices in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [12][13] 2. Futures and Spot Market No other content except for the source information and some data charts is provided, so no further summary can be made. 3. Cost Side - Tin ore supply was tight in the short term, and processing fees remained low [26] 4. Supply Side - The report presents multiple charts related to domestic refined tin production, recycled tin production, production and operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi, export and import profits, domestic and Indonesian import and export volumes, etc., but no additional written summary content is provided. 5. Demand Side - **Semiconductor**: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [45] - **PC and Smartphone**: In Q2 2025, global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year. Mobile phone consumption remained sluggish, with global smartphone shipments expected to increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units in 2025. The "trade - in" subsidy policy in the first half of the year stimulated consumer electronics growth, but the demand recovery was limited [48][51] - **Automobile**: In the first half of 2025, new - energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year [54] - **Home Appliance**: The first five months saw a near - 100% year - on - year increase in photovoltaic installation due to the installation rush, but the actual impact was less than expected [61] - **Other Fields**: Tin consumption in the tin - plate field continued to decline, while PVC production increased slightly in the first half of the year [64] 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet from January 2023 to June 2025, including refined tin production, exports, imports, social inventory, inventory changes, and apparent consumption [69]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing narrow fluctuations with the main contract rising by 0.3% to 266,940 yuan/ton, influenced by macroeconomic concerns regarding the U.S. economy and weak downstream demand [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tin from Myanmar has not yet recovered, with mining approvals in the Wa region affected by the rainy season and preparatory work, leading to a prolonged recovery period for imports [1] - In Yunnan, raw material shortages remain severe, with smelters' inventories generally below 30 days, resulting in intense competition for tin ore procurement and high processing costs for low-grade ores [1] - Some companies are preparing for production halts to clear intermediate products, while production has slightly increased due to the completion of maintenance [1] - Downstream orders continue to decline, with the third quarter being a traditional low season for consumption, leading to reduced orders in home appliances and significant drops in photovoltaic orders [1] Market Sentiment and Inventory Levels - Social inventory has been rising, and after price increases, downstream purchasing has become cautious, with many buyers placing low orders and adopting a wait-and-see approach [1] - Recent commentary from New Lake Futures indicates that the current weak consumption trend is expected to continue, with no significant changes in supply, and domestic inventories are on the rise while LME inventories remain low [2] - The short-term outlook suggests a dual weakness in supply and demand, with tin prices likely to experience repeated fluctuations [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai tin may be strong first and then weak due to factors such as the decline in US tariffs on China, potential relaxation of US restrictions on chip exports to Gulf countries, the expected resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the increase in refined tin inventories at home and abroad. Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai tin futures active contract was 265,210 yuan, down 560 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 72,966 lots, a decrease of 13,194 lots; the open interest was 30,513 lots, a decrease of 997 lots; the inventory was 8,163 tons, a decrease of 16 tons [1] - The closing price of the LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on May 15, 2025, was 32,814 US dollars, up 160 US dollars from the previous day; the LME tin global inventory was 2,745 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1] Company News - Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd. plans to have its wholly - owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., conduct an off - market conditional offer to acquire all the issued shares of Atlantic Tin Limited at a price of 0.24 Australian dollars per share [1] Supply - side Information - In the supply side, Myanmar's Wa State's mining policies have changed, and the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has复产. These factors may lead to a decrease in China's tin ore production and imports in May, and the domestic tin concentrate processing fee has been oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation. The supply of scrap tin is expected to increase but still remains tight. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi have decreased, and the production and inventory of refined tin in China in May may decrease. The export volume of Indonesia's refined tin in May may increase, and China's refined tin imports and exports may both increase [1] Demand - side Information - In the demand side, the daily processing fee of photovoltaic welding strips has decreased, which may lead to a decrease in the operating rate and inventory of China's tin solder production capacity in May. The import and export volume of welding strips in May may change, and the production, import, and export volume of tin - plated sheets in May may also change. The operating rate of China's lead - acid battery production capacity has increased [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the support level of 230,000 - 250,000 yuan and the pressure level of 270,000 - 280,000 yuan for Shanghai tin, and the support level of 28,000 - 30,000 US dollars and the pressure level of 33,000 - 35,000 US dollars for London tin [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of tin is expected to be strong first and then weak due to the initial results of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the possible relaxation of US restrictions on chip exports to Gulf countries, the expected resumption of the tin mine in Myanmar's Wa State, and the increase in refined tin inventories at home and abroad. Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the support levels around 230,000 - 250,000 for Shanghai tin, 265,000 - 280,000 for resistance, and 28,000 - 30,000 for support and 32,000 - 34,000 for resistance for London tin [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Company News - Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd. plans to have its wholly - owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., conduct an off - market conditional offer to acquire all the issued shares of Atlantic Tin Limited at a price of A$0.24 per share. The company will provide financial support for this transaction [3]. Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 259,540, down 1,940 from the previous day; the trading volume was 71,445 lots, a decrease of 32,879; the open interest was 30,130 lots, down 834; the inventory was 8,402 tons, up 68 [2]. - **Shanghai Tin Basis and Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin average price was 259,600, down 2,600 from the previous day; the basis was 60, down 660; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 240, up 60; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 30, up 10; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 30, down 200 [2]. - **London Tin**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on May 9, 2025, was 31,885, up 8 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 43.01, up 115.06; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 32, up 67.90; the global inventory was 2,705 tons, unchanged; the registered warrants were 2,395, unchanged; the cancelled warrants were 310, unchanged; the Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.14, down 0.06 [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In Myanmar, the Manxiang tin mine in Wa State clarified the process of obtaining mining and exploration licenses on April 23 and significantly increased fees. Full resumption of normal mining may take about 2 months. Alphamin Resources announced the resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo (the production in 2024 and 2025 is 17,300 and 20,000 tons respectively). Domestic tin ore production (imports) in May may decrease (increase). The domestic tin concentrate processing fee is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation. The supply of scrap tin is expected to increase but cannot change the tight situation. The production of recycled tin in China in May may not increase. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) decreased (remained flat) compared with last week, and the production (inventory) of refined tin in China in May may decrease (decrease). Malaysia's MSC smelting company suspended tin production due to a natural gas pipeline explosion on April 1. Indonesia tightened the qualification review of exporters and adjusted the quota allocation mechanism. PT Tinah, an Indonesian state - owned tin mining company, plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025 from 18,915 and 17,507 tons to 21,545 and 19,065 tons respectively, and exports in May may increase. China's refined tin imports (exports) in May may increase (increase). The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared with last week, the social inventory of tin ingots in China increased, and the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange increased [4]. - **Demand Side**: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic welding ribbons decreased, and the operating rate (inventory) of tin solder production capacity in China in May may decrease (decrease). China's imports (exports) of welding ribbons in May may decrease (increase). The production (imports, exports) of tin - plated sheets in China in May may increase (decrease, decrease). The operating rate of China's lead - acid battery production capacity increased compared with last week [4].