1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of tin are both weak, but the demand is greatly affected by the holiday. Domestic inventory is expected to rise, and the rebound of tin is weak, possibly continuing to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the holiday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - In December, the domestic tin ore import volume was 17,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. The tin ore imported from Myanmar was 6,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 438.68%. The recovery of the ore end is relatively slow, and the domestic tin ore supply remains tight in the short term, with processing fees at a low level [2] - As of the week of February 9, the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 10,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2] 3.2 Supply - In January, the refined tin output was 15,100 tons, lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 5.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. The raw material inventory of smelters is generally less than 30 days. The operating rate of domestic mainstream smelting enterprises remains high, but some enterprises have gradually reduced their loads or arranged maintenance due to holiday factors. The resumption of work of smelters from late February to early March may be relatively slow [3] - In December, China's refined tin import volume was 1,548 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.24% and a month - on - month increase of 29.54%. The import window was basically closed in December. In December, China exported 2,763 tons of refined tin, a year - on - year increase of 32.58% and a month - on - month increase of 41.84%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is oscillating downward, and tin imports continue to incur losses [3] - On January 21, 2026, Indonesia began to export tin ingots. In January, it exported 2,670 tons of tin ingots. With the subsequent quota gradually issued, the export volume will increase month - on - month, but limited by the quota ceiling of 60,000 tons, the annual supply may increase moderately [3] 3.3 Consumption - Recently, as tin prices fell, most downstream enterprises entered the market to replenish stocks, which may lead to a decline in social inventory. Last week, spot trading was relatively active, and some downstream enterprises entered the market for rigid - demand replenishment as the price dropped. However, the stocking of the downstream solder industry has basically ended this week, and other consumer industries have also completed their purchases one after another and are ready for the holiday. It is expected that spot transactions in the downstream will weaken, demand may drop to the bottom, and domestic inventory is expected to increase again [4] 3.4 Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of February 6, the tin inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,718 tons to 8,750 tons. As of January 23, the social inventory in three places monitored by SMM was 9,898 tons, ending a three - consecutive - increase trend. The average price of Yangtze River spot tin was 356,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66,970 yuan, a decline of 15.81%. The basis of Yangtze River spot to the main tin contract fluctuated, and the basis was at a discount of 3,710 yuan last Friday [4] 3.5 LME Spot and Inventory - As of February 6, the weekly inventory of LME tin decreased by 10 tons to 7,085 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the past five years. The spot discount of LME tin narrowed, and the discount was 157 US dollars last weekend [4] 3.6 Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas tin inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a relatively high level in the past five years. The spot is deeply discounted, and the supply - demand situation of overseas tin has not changed much. In December, the domestic tin ore import volume increased month - on - month, but the import of tin concentrate from Myanmar decreased month - on - month. The recovery process of Myanmar's tin mines is slow, and the domestic ore import volume is still difficult to effectively supplement. The short - term supply shortage of domestic tin ore has limited marginal improvement, and the domestic tin ore processing fee remains at a low level [5] - Affected by raw material shortages and the holiday, the output in February declined. In December, both the import and export of domestic refined tin increased month - on - month, and there was a net export in the month. Currently, the price ratio is oscillating downward, and the loss of tin imports has intensified. Indonesia's export volume increased year - on - year in January, and the quota in 2026 increased slightly. The future export volume may increase moderately [5] - The stocking of the downstream solder industry has basically ended this week, and other consumer industries have also completed their purchases one after another and are ready for the holiday. It is expected that spot transactions in the downstream will weaken, demand may drop to the bottom, and domestic inventory is expected to increase again [5]

Group 1 - The company emphasizes the importance of resource expansion and is actively monitoring industry developments to strengthen its resource project reserves [1] - The company is making efforts to enhance its tin-based mineral resource reserve capacity to ensure the security of national strategic metal resources and support sustainable development [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have surged significantly, with a strong closing at 397,500 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of 3,000 yuan and a rise of 0.76%, making it the only metal to show notable gains amidst a generally weak industrial metal market [1] Group 1: Macro Factors - The rise in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions, supply-demand dynamics, and financial market trends [2] - In the context of global stock market volatility and a weakening dollar, funds are moving away from traditional risk assets, with tin being favored for its association with high-growth sectors like AI and semiconductors [2] - The domestic push for new electronic information and smart connected vehicles has established a solid long-term demand foundation for tin [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions from Indonesia, Myanmar, and geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo have constrained short-term supply elasticity [2] - Demand is experiencing explosive growth in sectors such as AI servers, advanced packaging, and photovoltaic welding strips, particularly driven by the AI revolution [2] - The combination of low inventory and strong expectations has led to a rapid recovery in market sentiment, with significant inflows from both industrial and speculative funds [2] Group 3: Industry Structure - The tin industry is showing a clear differentiation, with upstream resources becoming increasingly scarce, leading to profit concentration at the upstream mining level [3] - Major companies like Yunnan Tin Company, Xinyi Silver Tin, and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals are benefiting from their resource reserves and integrated operations, enjoying substantial earnings elasticity during price increases [3] - High-end demand from traditional consumer electronics remains stable, while AI and photovoltaic sectors are emerging as key growth drivers [3] Group 4: Price Outlook - The market anticipates that tin prices will maintain a high-level oscillation in the short term, with a core fluctuation range between 395,000 and 405,000 yuan/ton [3] - The structural bull market is supported by a demand transformation driven by AI and renewable energy, alongside long-term capital expenditure constraints affecting supply [3] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a layered strategy in response to high volatility, with upstream companies managing profits flexibly and downstream firms exploring small-batch procurement [4] - Financial investors should focus on finding low-entry opportunities in the futures market while maintaining strict stop-loss measures [4] - The structural bull market for tin is expected to continue, driven by the demand from the energy transition and smart revolution, despite potential price fluctuations [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The strong US dollar is suppressing metal valuations, leading to a significant decline in tin prices, with LME tin closing at $52,775, down $1,225 or 2.27% from the previous trading day [1] - The LME tin inventory decreased by 5 tons to 5,925 tons, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The recent price correction in tin is attributed to a combination of policy changes, macroeconomic factors, fundamental supply-demand shifts, and market sentiment adjustments [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global tin supply is showing signs of marginal easing, particularly with stable recovery in Myanmar's Wa region and steady output from domestic smelters [2] - The previously declining exchange inventory is now showing accumulation signals, which alleviates earlier concerns about resource scarcity [2] - Tin consumption is facing dual pressures from traditional seasonal slowdowns and insufficient support from emerging sectors, leading to a cautious approach in procurement by downstream enterprises [2] Group 3: Industry Leaders - Industry leaders, such as Tin Industry Co., are demonstrating strong profitability during high price cycles and are focusing on resource allocation to strengthen long-term advantages [3] - Tin Industry Co. achieved impressive performance and financial optimization in the first three quarters due to high tin prices, while also enhancing resource security through new mining quotas and comprehensive resource utilization [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Forecast - The spot market is experiencing low trading activity, with price reductions prompting traders to offer discounts, yet downstream purchasing remains cautious, primarily driven by essential needs [3] - In the short term, tin prices are expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern due to multiple pressures from policy adjustments, a strong dollar, and weakening fundamentals [3] - In the medium to long term, supply constraints from Indonesia and incremental demand from emerging sectors will be key supports for prices, with the ability to return to an upward trend dependent on inventory trends [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a strong upward trend in tin prices driven by macroeconomic, geopolitical, and industrial factors, with significant price increases observed in both futures and spot markets [1][2] - The Shanghai tin contract 2602 experienced a notable increase, closing at 376,920 yuan/ton, marking an increase of 27,920 yuan and an 8% rise [1] - The current tin market is characterized by a tight balance between limited supply and upgraded demand structure, with global production constraints and low visible inventories providing strong price support [2] Group 2 - Supply-side constraints are evident due to production disruptions in major global regions such as Indonesia, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, alongside domestic smelting limitations [2] - Demand is shifting structurally, with strong performance in emerging industries like AI computing power, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaic welding strips, which are supporting tin consumption despite a seasonal slowdown in traditional electronics [2] - Leading companies in the industry, such as Tin Industry Co., are experiencing significant growth in performance, reflecting the overall improvement in industry sentiment and the positive correlation with tin prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of 9.17% and an amplitude of 11.84%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 352,540 yuan/ton. It is expected that Shanghai Tin will adjust at a high level in the short - term. Pay attention to the battle at the 350,000 mark. If it falls below the MA10, it may be under pressure again [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of 9.17% and an amplitude of 11.84%. The closing price of the main contract was 352,540 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US labor market shows no obvious pressure. The number of initial jobless claims last week increased slightly to 208,000, lower than the expected 212,000. The US Treasury yield rebounded, and the US dollar reached a four - week high [5] - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable. The overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Due to the shortage of tin ore raw materials, most enterprises have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. It is expected that the production of refined tin will continue to be restricted and there will be no year - on - year increase. The export volume of Indonesia in November increased significantly, alleviating concerns about the limited supply from Indonesia. Recently, the import window is approaching to open, increasing import pressure [5] - **Demand**: Recently, downstream enterprises purchased on demand. Inventories continued to decline, and the spot premium was 500 yuan/ton. LME inventories remained stable, and the spot premium increased [5] - **Technical Aspect**: The position decreased and the price adjusted, and the long - position sentiment declined [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Price Changes**: As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 352,910 yuan/ton, a rise of 25,230 yuan/ton or 7.7% from December 31. As of January 8, 2026, the closing price of LME Tin was 43,750 US dollars/ton, a rise of 3,280 US dollars/ton or 8.1% from January 2. As of December 31, 2025, the basis of Shanghai Tin was 500 yuan/ton, compared with 0 yuan/ton last week [7][10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of January 9, 2026, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.54, an increase of 0.09 from December 31. As of January 7, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.07, a decrease of 0.02 from December 31 [15] - **Position Changes**: As of January 9, 2026, the position of Shanghai Tin was 105,695 lots, an increase of 17,907 lots or 20.4% from December 31. As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was -3,764 lots, a decrease of 2,393 lots from December 22, 2025 [19] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Production**: In November 2025, the monthly import volume of tin ore concentrates was 15,099.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. From January to November this year, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 118,119.99 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.51%. In October 2025, the production of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined tin was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Tin Ore Processing Fees**: On January 9, 2026, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on January 8, 2026. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as on January 8, 2026. On January 9, 2026, the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 337,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,300 yuan/ton or 1.54% from January 8, 2026. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 341,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,300 yuan/ton or 1.53% from January 8, 2026 [31] - **Refined Tin Import Window**: As of January 8, 2026, the import profit and loss of tin was 2,266.55 yuan/ton, a rise of 7,509.43 yuan/ton from January 2, 2026. In November 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 1,194.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 127.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.05%. From January to November, the cumulative import volume of refined tin was 20,949.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.21%. In November 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,948.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.62% and a year - on - year increase of 33.73%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of refined tin was 20,620.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.87% [36][37] - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 8, 2026, the total LME tin inventory was 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons or 0.28% from December 31. As of January 9, 2026, the total tin inventory was 6,935 tons, a decrease of 1,001 tons or 12.61% from last week. As of January 9, 2026, the tin futures inventory was 6,429 tons, a decrease of 1,013 tons or 13.61% from December 31 [40] 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: On January 8, 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,436.1, a rise of 352.97 or 4.98% from December 31. From January to November 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 431.84 billion pieces, an increase of 36.57072 billion pieces or 9.25% compared with the same period last year [43][44] - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of November 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from October 2025. As of November 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 147,375.58 tons, a decrease of 75,214.24 tons or 33.79% from October [47]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply-demand dynamics, and industry trends, indicating a strong market sentiment and geopolitical risk premium [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - The Shanghai tin contract 2602 experienced a significant increase, opening at 348,300 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 364,240 CNY/ton, and closing at 359,050 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 18,180 CNY or 5.33% [1]. - The average price of 1 tin in the Changjiang market rose by 15,200 CNY from the previous day, with current prices ranging from 356,500 CNY/ton to 358,500 CNY/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by a significant decline in Myanmar's tin production, which has dropped by 87% from its peak in 2018, and a projected 85% decrease in exports to China from January to October 2025 [2]. - Global tin inventories are at historical lows, with LME stocks at only 5,420 tons, creating a challenging supply gap [2]. - On the demand side, while traditional electronics are in a seasonal downturn, the explosive growth in AI server construction and photovoltaic installations is driving a surge in demand for high-grade tin solder and welding materials [2]. Group 3: Industry Performance - Leading companies in the tin industry are showing strong performance, with Tin Industry Co. reporting a 35.99% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, entering the top 500 listed companies in China [2]. - Other companies like Huaxi Nonferrous and Zijin Mining are also experiencing significant stock price increases and strategic resource collaborations, reflecting the industry's high growth potential [2]. Group 4: Market Characteristics - The current spot market is exhibiting characteristics of "high price with low trading volume," where high prices are significantly suppressing downstream purchasing intentions, leading to transactions primarily driven by rigid demand [3]. Group 5: Short-term Price Forecast - Short-term tin prices are expected to maintain a high oscillation range of 350,000 to 359,000 CNY/ton, with potential corrections if Myanmar's production exceeds expectations or macroeconomic policies change [4].

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply constraints and structural demand growth, influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai tin contract 2602 saw an increase, closing at 344,750 yuan/ton, up by 1,890 yuan, or 0.55% [1]. - The trading volume for the main contract was 228,643 lots, with an open interest of 61,161 lots, an increase of 4,662 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot tin price in the Yangtze River market reported a decline, with an average price of 339,400 yuan/ton, down by 1,500 yuan from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are significant, primarily due to slow resumption of tin mining in Myanmar and geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to tight resource circulation [3]. - Major exporting country Indonesia faces policy and resource quality issues, affecting export stability, while global tin resources are limited and new capacity additions are slow [3]. - Demand is structurally growing, driven by strong needs in AI servers and semiconductor packaging, while traditional sectors like home appliances and automotive electronics show slower growth [3]. Group 3: Industry Leaders and Strategies - Leading companies in the tin industry are adapting to changes by emphasizing resource strategic value and expanding into emerging demand areas [4]. - Companies like Tin Industry Co. are experiencing steady growth, while Xingye Silver Tin is advancing mining projects to enhance self-sufficiency [4]. - Overall, leading firms are strengthening resource control and expanding into high-value downstream sectors to address supply anxieties and capitalize on structural demand opportunities [4]. Group 4: Short-term Price Outlook - The macro sentiment is cautious, leading to a bearish outlook, but the tight supply and low inventory levels are expected to support a potential price increase in the short term [5].

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing significant price increases driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and strong demand from AI and renewable energy sectors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai tin contract 2601 rose by 1,600 yuan, or 0.47%, closing at 340,440 yuan per ton, with a trading volume of 239,837 lots and a decrease in open interest by 4,558 lots [1]. - The spot tin price in the Changjiang market reported an average of 340,900 yuan per ton, up by 3,500 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - A weaker US dollar and global liquidity easing are providing favorable conditions for commodity prices, particularly in the context of a structural bull market for non-ferrous metals [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the escalation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, are threatening key logistics hubs that account for approximately 6% of global tin supply, exacerbating supply risks [2]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand for tin is shifting from traditional consumer electronics to AI computing power and green energy applications, leading to a significant increase in tin consumption in AI servers and photovoltaic technologies [3]. - The supply of tin is becoming increasingly inelastic, creating a sharp contradiction between high demand growth and limited supply [3]. Group 4: Industry Profitability - Profit margins in the tin industry are increasingly concentrated at the upstream resource level, benefiting companies with their own mines, such as Tin Industry Co. and Xinyi Silver Tin [3]. - Midstream smelting plants are facing challenges in raw material acquisition, while downstream processing companies are adopting low inventory strategies due to high costs, accelerating industry consolidation [3]. Group 5: Price Forecast - Short-term tin prices are expected to remain high due to geopolitical risks, low inventory levels, and macroeconomic easing, although a technical correction may occur before reaching the key resistance level of 350,000 yuan per ton [4]. - In the medium to long term, a structural shortage of tin may persist due to low resource extraction ratios and high costs associated with new capacity investments, reinforcing tin's status as a "scarce metal" [4].

Supply Dynamics - The supply side has been a crucial factor influencing tin prices, with prices surpassing 290,000 yuan due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, reaching a six-month high [2] - Following the reduction of supply disruptions in Indonesia, tin prices have retreated to around 280,000 yuan, but the market is currently overestimating the price based on valuation lines [2] - China's imports of tin ore and concentrates for September 2025 reached 8,713.60 physical tons (approximately 3,444.62 metal tons), marking a year-on-year decline of 11.87% and a month-on-month decline of 26.59%, the lowest level this year [2] Import Trends - In September, imports from Myanmar increased significantly, with 3,136.76 tons (approximately 848.91 metal tons) imported, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.55% and a month-on-month increase of 43.00% [5] - Other major supply countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, and Nigeria, saw a notable decline in supply, with total imports from these countries down 22.30% year-on-year and 36.66% month-on-month [7] - The decline in imports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Australia was attributed to shipping delays rather than a decrease in local production [8] Market Outlook - The overall supply situation remains tight, with domestic tin supply not significantly improving, which continues to restrict the operating levels of smelting enterprises [9] - Despite a seasonal recovery in production expected in October, the motivation for sustained increases in operating rates is lacking due to ongoing tightness in raw material supply and low processing fees [9] - The market is closely monitoring the recovery of production in the Wa region of Myanmar, which is gradually returning to normal, although current output remains below expectations [9]