作者： 新能源及有色组 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保 证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期，本公司可能会 昨日沪镍期货呈大幅下滑态势，主力合约2602开于146500元/吨，开盘后仍处高位震荡，午后突然急速 下跌，最低触及133800元/吨，后收于136440元/吨，跌幅6.14%。持仓量12.81万手，较前一交易日下滑 3.69%，成交量152.06万手，较前一交易日下滑34.3%。 昨日沪镍大幅下跌主要受消息面影响，据SMM报导，印度尼西亚能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）在1月8 日下午召开新闻发布会，对于2026年印尼镍矿RKAB审批方面，印尼能矿部长Bahil Lahadalia未披露具 体数额，并称仍在核算中，将根据2026年冶炼企业总需求量进行调整。该消息直接降低了印尼镍矿产能 缩小预期，引发市场对2026年供给宽松的担忧。此外，夜盘贵金属、有色板块下跌，也 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report - Date: May 7, 2025 - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team of CCB Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel market fundamentals are mixed. The surplus trend of primary nickel is difficult to reverse, but the support from the mining end is strong. In addition, the short - term supply pressure of intermediates has eased. The market is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels and be vigilant against macro risks [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - During the May Day holiday, LME nickel first declined and then rose due to macro factors. After the holiday, SHFE nickel was strong among non - ferrous metals, closing at 124,630 with a 0.48% increase, and the total index positions decreased by 1,617 to 155,125 lots [8]. - The spot market was average, and the premiums remained stable. The Jinchuan premium was flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the Russian nickel premium was 100 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentally, supported by the Indonesian PNBP royalty increase policy, the premium of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore remained high. Although the HPM of nickel ore in May may decline slightly, it is still likely to rise in the future. For nickel sulfate, the reduction of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte projects led to tight raw material supply and stronger cost support, with the average price on the 6th increasing to 28,085 yuan/ton and expected to rise moderately [8]. - In terms of inventory, although the inventory accumulation trend continued, the LME and domestic inventories were decreasing marginally, providing short - term support for nickel prices [8]. 3.2 Industry News - IWIP emphasized the importance of occupational health and safety, organized a series of activities in April, and aimed to create a safe work environment [9][11]. - GFNI exported 56,625 wet metric tons of low - grade nickel ore to Indonesia on April 30, 2025. It plans to complete 91 shipments of 5 million WMT in 2025, with an expected revenue increase in double - digits due to capacity expansion and efficiency improvement [10]. - In Q1 2025, PT Vale Indonesia's nickel intermediate production was 17,027 metric tons, a 6% year - on - year and 8% quarter - on - quarter decline. Sales were 206.5 million US dollars, lower than the previous quarter due to reduced shipments and a 5% drop in the average nickel price. It also started commercial sales of about 80,000 tons of saprolite ore to domestic buyers and plans to increase sales to 290,000 tons in H1 2025 [11]. - SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore to decline by 3.16% in the first half of May compared to the previous period [12].