1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no mention of the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel variety, although the current fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, with frequent positive policies from Indonesia and a long period of bottom - side oscillation, it is likely to be in a high - level oscillation state, but its trend depends on the overall sector sentiment. For the stainless - steel variety, the short - term trend highly depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation rhythm [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 146,500 yuan/ton and closed at 136,440 yuan/ton, a - 6.14% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,520,564 (+388,308) lots, and the open interest was 128,055 (-4,900) lots. The sharp decline was due to the Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister not disclosing the specific amount of 2026 nickel - mine RKAB approval and the decline of the precious - metal and non - ferrous sectors [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel - ore market has limited resources. The 1.25 nickel - ore from the Benguet mine in the Philippines was tendered at $32.5, a month - on - month increase. In January 2026 (Phase 1), the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia increased by $0.05 - 0.08 per wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 152,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading improved, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands remained high. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 39,330 (+554) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 276,300 (+666) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 14,050 yuan/ton and closed at 13,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 424,667 (+136,211) lots, and the open interest was 114,820 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a high - opening, low - closing, and oscillating - downward trend. The stainless - steel futures are easily affected by the price fluctuations of Shanghai nickel, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of the Indonesian nickel - ore quota policy [3]. - **Spot**: The futures decline led to a limited callback in some spot prices, and the trading volume also decreased significantly. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 130 - 330 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 12.50 yuan per nickel point to 960.0 yuan per nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. It is recommended to control positions, trade based on key support levels, and be vigilant against the risk of linked callbacks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in Shanghai nickel futures is primarily influenced by news from Indonesia regarding nickel ore approvals for 2026, raising concerns about supply adjustments and market dynamics [2][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai nickel futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract 2602 opening at 146,500 CNY/ton and dropping to a low of 133,800 CNY/ton, closing at 136,440 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 6.14% [2][7]. - The trading volume decreased to 1,520,600 contracts, down 34.3% from the previous trading day, while open interest fell by 3.69% to 128,100 contracts [2][7]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in nickel prices was triggered by a press conference held by Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, where no specific figures were disclosed regarding the approval of nickel ore mining for 2026, leading to reduced expectations for nickel ore production capacity [2][8]. - Concerns about a potential oversupply in the nickel market were exacerbated by the increase in global refined nickel inventories, with both SHFE and LME stocks rising [8].

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is considering extending its cobalt export ban, which could benefit companies with cobalt mining capacities in Indonesia, as DRC holds a dominant position in global cobalt resource supply [1] - The DRC has allowed the export of cobalt salts that have been smelted and refined locally, benefiting a domestic company engaged in cobalt smelting cooperation and holding cobalt salt export quotas [1] - The Indonesian government has shut down some nickel smelting facilities under the guise of environmental reviews, leading to a clear upward trend in nickel prices; a specific company relying on its hydrometallurgical nickel capacity could significantly increase related business profits [1]