1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly, mainly affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar putting pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector. In terms of supply, the production schedule for March increased, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate, indicating sufficient market supply. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. There was a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, but there was a significant month - on - month decline during the off - season [6]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly, while the main contract of stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: Nickel prices were affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar and overall pressure on non - ferrous metals. Supply was sufficient, and there were different situations in each part of the industrial chain [6]. - **Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 77 to 78, a 1.30% increase; the price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 72 to 73, a 1.39% increase [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 32000 to 31250, a 2.34% decrease; the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged at 32500 [11]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 3500, and the price of high - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 144970 to 140690, a 2.95% decrease; the price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 138020 to 134040, a 2.88% decrease; the ex - factory price of Jinchuan decreased from 144000 to 140600, a 2.36% decrease [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 15087.5 to 15062.5, a 0.17% decrease [12] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: Nickel ore prices rose by 1 US dollar per wet ton this week, and sea freight remained the same as last week [15][16]. - **Inventory**: On March 19, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 7.9266 million wet tons, a decrease of 656800 wet tons or 7.65% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Philippine nickel ore was 7.6266 million wet tons, a decrease of 606800 wet tons or 7.37%; the inventory of nickel ore from other countries was 300000 wet tons, a decrease of 50000 wet tons or 14.29% [16]. - **Imports**: In February 2026, the nickel ore import volume was 1.2239 million tons, a decrease of 160300 tons or 11.58% month - on - month and an increase of 77800 tons or 6.79% year - on - year. From January to February 2026, the total nickel ore import volume was 2.6081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.73% [16] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price**: Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, affected by the war and a stronger US dollar. Domestic nickel supply was sufficient, and inventories continued to rise [20][22]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel production was 32600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel production was 67825 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.65%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 39430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [29]. - **Imports and Exports**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel import volume was 16930.903 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5135 tons or 23.27% and a year - on - year increase of 9333 tons or 122.85%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel import volume was 38997.234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5821 tons or 17.54%. In February 2026, China's refined nickel export volume was 2266.831 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1547 tons or 40.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 17934 tons or 88.78%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel export volume was 177407.479 tons, a year - on - year increase of 143135 tons or 417.64% [33]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In February 2026, China's sulfuric acid nickel physical production was 199500 tons, and the metal production was 43900 tons (new sample), a month - on - month decrease of 16.2%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 53100 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.06%. The battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 31250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton, and the electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 32500 yuan per ton, the same as last week [36]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1146 tons to 283512 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 20 tons to 63661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56690 tons. The social inventory data showed that the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 228 tons compared with last week, the spot inventory was 24727 tons, an increase of 413 tons, the bonded area inventory was 2970 tons, unchanged, and the total inventory was 84387 tons, an increase of 641 tons compared with last week [38] 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - **Price**: According to MySteel data, the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3500 yuan per ton, and the price of high - nickel iron remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point. According to SMM data, the price of high - nickel iron decreased by 10.5 yuan per nickel compared with before the holiday, to 1084 yuan per nickel, and the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3675 yuan per ton [43][44]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual production in terms of metal was 21100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 16400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; the production of low - nickel pig iron was 4700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67%. From January to February 2024, China's total nickel pig iron production was 42500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.48%, among which the nickel metal production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 31300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.73% [46]. - **Imports**: In February 2026, China's nickel iron import volume was 831700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78200 tons or 8.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 77300 tons or 8.51%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia in February was 796000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89100 tons or 10.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 98700 tons or 11%. From January to February 2026, China's total nickel iron import volume was 1.7415 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96500 tons or 5.25%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia was 1.6811 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 112500 tons or 6.27% [49]. - **Inventory**: In February, the negotiable inventory of nickel iron was 178300 physical tons, equivalent to 17000 nickel tons. The negotiable inventory of medium - and high - nickel iron was 152300 tons, equivalent to 16900 nickel tons [52] 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The average price of 304 stainless steel in four places decreased by 25 yuan per ton compared with last week. The prices in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained the same, while the price in Foshan decreased by 100 yuan per ton [57][58][59]. - **Production**: In February, the stainless steel crude steel production was 2.71 million tons, including 818300 tons of 200 - series, 572300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [61]. - **Imports and Exports**: The latest data showed that the stainless steel import volume was 109000 tons, and the export volume was 260000 tons [64]. - **Inventory**: On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 380600 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1274 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15000 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 693700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13400 tons [67] 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Production and Sales Volume**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694000 and 765000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. The new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 42.4% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively, and the new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.2% of the total new vehicle sales [71]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 5.7 GWh, accounting for 21.7% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 39.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.6 GWh, accounting for 78.3% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 36.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.5%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic power battery loading volume was 68.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. Among them, the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 15.1 GWh, accounting for 22.1% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 53.3 GWh, accounting for 77.9% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [74] 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price started to weaken, the 20 - day moving average turned downward, the positions decreased significantly, and some long - positions withdrew. The MACD indicator showed a downward trend, and the KDJ entered the relatively bottom area, indicating a certain rebound demand. As long as the previous low is not broken, the oscillating trend remains intact, and an oscillating strategy is maintained [77] 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The impact of each link on nickel prices is as follows: nickel ore is neutral to bullish due to the continuous impact of RKAB and strong demand in Indonesia; nickel iron is neutral with weakly stable prices and strong cost support; refined nickel is neutral to bearish with sufficient supply and high inventories; stainless steel is neutral with slightly decreasing inventories but still at a high level and weak consumption; new energy is neutral with a significant month - on - month decrease in production during the off - season [80]. - **Trading Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [82][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the bullish sentiment soared due to the shutdown of production capacities of four Indonesian enterprises, but then nickel prices fell again as the positive factors were digested and the international situation changed. In terms of supply, the production schedule in March increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. In the industrial chain, the bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market was strong, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to ferment, and there was a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to the cost inversion in China. The price of nickel iron was weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. The inventory of stainless steel continued to decline slightly, and the demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, and the month - on - month decline was significant during the off - season [6]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, the price fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average, and the downward trend of the 20 - day moving average has changed and started to run horizontally. The change in position is small, indicating a stalemate between long and short. The direction of the MACD indicator is unclear, and the KDJ is at a medium level. Technically, the price may continue to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints** - For Shanghai nickel, this week, nickel prices fluctuated. The supply in March increased, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate. In the industrial chain, the bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market was strong, the price of nickel iron was weakly stable, the inventory of stainless steel continued to decline slightly, and the demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, and the month - on - month decline was significant during the off - season [6]. - **Strategies** - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [7][83]. - The main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [8][83]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from $74 to $77, a rise of 4.05%; the price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from $69 to $72, a rise of 4.35% [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased from 31,750 yuan/ton to 32,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%; the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged at 32,500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron (Shandong) decreased from 3,550 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.41%; the price of high - nickel iron (Shandong) increased from 1,090 yuan/nickel point to 1,100 yuan/nickel point, a rise of 0.92% [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from 144,160 yuan/ton to 144,970 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.56%; the price of Shanghai Russian nickel increased from 137,060 yuan/ton to 138,020 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.70%; the ex - factory price of Jinchuan decreased from 144,400 yuan/ton to 144,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.28% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 15,112.5 yuan/ton to 15,087.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17% [12]. 2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: The nickel ore price increased by $3/wet ton this week, and the ocean freight increased by $5/wet ton. - **Inventory**: On March 12, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 8.5834 million wet tons, a decrease of 659,900 wet tons or 7.14% from the previous period. Among them, the nickel ore from the Philippines was 8.2334 million wet tons, a decrease of 604,900 wet tons or 6.84%; the nickel ore from other countries was 350,000 wet tons, a decrease of 55,000 wet tons or 13.58% [16]. - **Import**: In December 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million tons, a decrease of 1.3466 million tons or 40.33% month - on - month, and an increase of 473,100 tons or 31.13% year - on - year. The total nickel ore import volume from January to December 2025 was 42.2634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.94% [16]. 2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price and Purchase**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the price strengthened due to the shutdown of four Indonesian wet - smelting plants, but then fell again in the second half of the week. Downstream maintained rigid demand purchases [22]. - **Output**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel output was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. The estimated output in March 2026 is 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [29]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 23,394.299 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,724 tons or 84.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 5,100 tons or 27.88%. The net import of refined nickel in this month was 10,097.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 525.23%. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 231,188.825 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133,916 tons or 137.67%. In December 2025, China's refined nickel export volume was 13,296.309 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,370 tons or 21.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3,839 tons or 22.40% [33]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 2,892 tons to 284,658 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,912 tons to 63,681 tons, including 56,462 tons of futures inventory. The total inventory was 83,746 tons, an increase of 2,397 tons from the previous week [38]. 2.4. Nickel Iron Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of low - nickel iron decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton; the price of high - nickel iron increased by 10 yuan/nickel to 1,100 yuan/nickel [44]. - **Output**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual output was 21,100 tons in metal, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The output of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; the output of low - nickel pig iron was 4,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% [46]. - **Import**: In December 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 101,000 tons or 11.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 1,000 tons or 0.1%. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 1.1149 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 217,200 tons or 24.2% [49]. - **Inventory**: In February, the negotiable inventory of nickel iron was 178,300 physical tons, equivalent to 17,000 tons of nickel [52]. 2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four places) decreased by 25 yuan/ton this week. The prices in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained the same, while the price in Foshan decreased by 100 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Output**: In February, the stainless steel crude steel output was 2.71 million tons, including 818,300 tons of 200 - series, 572,300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [61]. - **Import and Export**: The latest data shows that the stainless steel import volume was 145,000 tons, and the export volume was 485,000 tons [64]. - **Inventory**: On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1425 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons [67]. 2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Production and Sales of New Energy Vehicles**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively [72]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative output was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6% [75]. 3. Technical Analysis On the daily K - line, the price fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average, and the downward trend of the 20 - day moving average has changed and started to run horizontally. The change in position is small, indicating a stalemate between long and short. The direction of the MACD indicator is unclear, and the KDJ is at a medium level. Technically, the price may continue to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [78]. 4. Industrial Chain Summary, Viewpoints and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints** - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB policy continues to have an impact, the demand in Indonesia provides strong support, and the mine quotations are firm [81]. - **Nickel Iron**: Neutral. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost support is strong [81]. - **Refined Nickel**: Neutral to bearish. The output increases, and the inventory is at a high level [81]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. The inventory decreases slightly but is still at a high level, and the consumption is weak [81]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. It is the off - season for consumption, and the output decreases significantly month - on - month [81]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average; the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel mining quota has reversed the market's expectation of a "continuous surplus" in 2026, leading to supply - tightening pricing and a sharp rise in nickel prices. The continuous upward trend in the nickel ore market also supports the increase in nickel prices. For stainless steel, it is a passive follow - up rise driven by cost, with weak fundamentals [1][2][3][4] - Near the Spring Festival holiday, both nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply interference and cost - side support [3][4] Summary of Each Section Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 133,350 yuan/ton and closed at 139,360 yuan/ton, a change of 4.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 518,625 (+237,189) lots, and the open interest was 76,440 (-3,802) lots. The main contract showed a strong unilateral upward trend, breaking through the key pressure level of 140,000. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel mining quota was the main reason for the price increase [1] - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota is 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, a significant reduction of about 30% compared to 3.79 billion tons in 2025. The reduction of a large - scale mine's quota by over 70% has led to an increase in nickel ore premiums. The supply of nickel ore is tight, and the bottom price of ferronickel is strongly supported. In January, the ferronickel production in Indonesia decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [1][2] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 146,700 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was light, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,750 (0) tons [2] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 13,735 yuan/ton and closed at 14,145 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,583 (+50,518) lots, and the open interest was 100,625 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, following the rebound of Shanghai nickel, but overall weaker than nickel, being a passive follow - up rise driven by cost [3] - **Spot**: Spot trading basically stopped, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 160 to 360 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,043.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The nickel price showed a pattern of rising and then falling this week, but still remained in an upward trend overall. Short - term spot supply was tight. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices rose slightly, and mines were bullish. Nickel iron prices increased significantly, and the cost line went up. Stainless steel inventory declined. Refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The nickel price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was strong. Short - sellers were advised to wait and see, while long - sellers could hold a small amount of positions. The main stainless steel contract was expected to run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait for the moment [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel View**: The nickel price rose and then fell this week, still in an upward trend. Short - term spot was in short supply. Nickel ore prices rose slightly, mines were bullish, nickel iron prices increased sharply, cost line rose, stainless steel inventory decreased, refined nickel inventory was high, and the new energy vehicle sector had limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: For the main Shanghai nickel contract, short - sellers should wait and see, and long - sellers hold a small number of positions; for the main stainless steel contract, it would run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Some nickel ore prices rose slightly, battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices increased by 20.40% and 5.69% respectively, low - nickel iron price remained unchanged, high - nickel iron price rose by 4.86%, electrolytic nickel prices increased, and the 304 stainless steel price rose by 5.63% [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market Situation**: Some nickel ore prices rose 1 cent/wet ton, and freight decreased 1 cent/wet ton. On January 8, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.1977 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.92%. In November 2025, nickel ore imports decreased by 28.69% month - on - month and increased by 2.92% year - on - year. Mines were firm on prices [18]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market Situation**: The nickel price rose and then fell with large fluctuations and average trading volume. Spot supply was tight. Globally, the nickel market was expected to remain oversupplied. In December 2025, China's refined nickel production increased by 2.35% month - on - month and decreased by 16.39% year - on - year. In November 2025, imports increased by 30.07% month - on - month and 40.86% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 20.06% month - on - month and increased by 0.80% year - on - year. LME and SHFE inventories increased [26][27][39]. - **Nickel Iron Market Situation**: Low - nickel iron price remained stable, and high - nickel iron price rose. In December 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. In November 2025, imports decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and increased by 1.4% year - on - year. The December inventory was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 nickel tons [46][48][54]. - **Stainless Steel Market Situation**: The 304 stainless steel price rose by 5.63%. In December, stainless steel production was 3.2605 million tons. Imports were 112,100 tons, and exports were 405,300 tons. On January 9, the national inventory was 948,300 tons, a decrease of 2.91 million tons [59][65][72]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Situation**: From January to November, new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% year - on - year respectively. In November, production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively. In November 2025, the production of power + energy - storage batteries was 193GWh, and the total production of power + energy - storage + consumer batteries increased by 12.4% month - on - month and 64.6% year - on - year [77][80]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price continued to rise significantly and deviated from the moving average. There was some competition among long - sellers at high positions. MACD and other indicators were in an upward trend. The price should be followed, but risks should also be noted. A small number of long positions could be held, and short - sellers should wait and see [83]. 4. Industrial Chain Summary - **Fundamental View**: The impact of the nickel ore link on the nickel price was neutral to strong, with stable prices and bullish mines; the nickel iron link was also neutral to strong, with rising prices and an upward - moving cost line; the refined nickel link was neutral, with short - term supply shortages and long - term oversupply; the stainless steel link was neutral, with falling inventory and rising costs; the new energy link was neutral, with good production data but the continued replacement of ternary batteries [86]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the main Shanghai nickel contract, short - sellers should wait and see, and long - sellers hold a small number of positions; for the main stainless steel contract, it would run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait [88][89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices continued to rise significantly. The main bulls did not take profits but engaged in high - selling and low - buying at high levels. Recently, some production capacities have cut production, reducing supply pressure. The nickel ore price is stable, the shipping volume is affected by weather, and mines have a strong bullish sentiment. The ferronickel price continues to rebound, and the cost line rises. The stainless steel inventory has declined and is short - term affected by nickel prices. The refined nickel inventory remains at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [6]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, prices continued to rise significantly, moving away from the moving averages. The long - position power was still strong with no sign of taking profits. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. The previous top support was effective, and short - sellers should mainly wait and see. If the price falls back to the previous box, they can consider short - selling [78]. Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Futures**: The nickel price is strong. Short - sellers should wait and see and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box [7]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: It is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend. Short - sellers should wait temporarily [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of laterite nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week, with a 0.00% change [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 3.23% to 27,200 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 3.36% to 30,750 yuan/ton [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased by 5.46% to 141,900 yuan/ton, Shanghai Russian nickel increased by 5.22% to 134,050 yuan/ton, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased by 6.68% to 142,100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Ferronickel**: According to MySteel data, the price of low - grade ferronickel in Shandong remained unchanged at 3,300 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade ferronickel increased by 1.65% to 925 yuan/nickel point. According to SMM data, the price of high - grade ferronickel decreased by 25.5 yuan/nickel to 930.5 yuan/nickel, and the price of low - grade ferronickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 1.19% to 13,762.5 yuan/ton [12]. 2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions - The nickel ore price remained stable this week, and the freight rate was the same as last week. As of December 25, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.7647 million wet tons, a decrease of 626,700 wet tons or 4.35% from the previous period. In November 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3434 million tons or 28.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 94,600 tons or 2.92%. Mines have a strong bullish sentiment, and the shipping volume is affected by weather. The downstream ferronickel price has improved, and the bargaining power has shifted upward [15]. 2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices continued to rise, and there was little receiving and shipping during the holiday. In the medium - to - long - term, the global nickel market is expected to maintain an oversupply pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. The traditional demand for stainless steel and other products has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.27%. The import volume was 12,670.512 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.07% and a year - on - year increase of 40.86%. The export volume was 10,926.086 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.06% and a year - on - year increase of 0.80%. The LME inventory decreased by 534 tons to 255,162 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 1,090 tons to 45,544 tons [21][28][31]. 2.4. Ferronickel Market Conditions - The ferronickel price continued to rebound. In November 2025, China's ferronickel production was 22,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. The import volume was 895,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The inventory in November was 218,500 physical tons, equivalent to 22,500 tons of nickel [41][44][47]. 2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased this week. In November, the stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4931 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 1.82% month - on - month. The import volume was 112,100 tons, and the export volume was 405,300 tons. As of December 31, the national stainless steel inventory was 977,400 tons, a decrease of 27,700 tons from the previous period [55][59][62]. 2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. In November, the production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 53.2% of the total new vehicle sales [72]. 3. Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, prices continued to rise significantly, moving away from the moving averages. The long - position power was still strong with no sign of taking profits. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. The previous top support was effective, and short - sellers should mainly wait and see. If the price falls back to the previous box, they can consider short - selling [78]. 4. Industry Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Impact on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore has a neutral - to - bullish impact as the price is stable and mines are bullish; ferronickel has a neutral - to - bullish impact as the price rebounds and the cost line rises; refined nickel has a neutral impact as there is short - term production cut and reduced supply pressure, but the long - term oversupply pattern remains with high inventory; stainless steel has a neutral impact as the inventory declines and the cost rises; new energy has a neutral impact as the production data is good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continues [81]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the main nickel futures contract, the nickel price is strong, and short - sellers should wait and see and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box. For the main stainless steel futures contract, it is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend, and short - sellers should wait temporarily [83][84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are experiencing wide - range fluctuations due to capital games in the market [1] - The stainless - steel market has weak supply and demand fundamentals, and is being affected by news about Indonesian nickel mines [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 125,410, down 2,590 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,990, down 85 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 650,804, a decrease of 444,527 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 249,426, a decrease of 115,671 from T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 124,150, down 3,050 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 899, up 6 from T - 1. In the stainless - steel sector, the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,050, unchanged from T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesian Nickel Mine News**: The Indonesian forestry working group has taken over a more than 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. The Indonesian government will sanction 190 mining companies due to non - compliance with regulations. The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026 and may reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [2][5][6] - **Other News**: China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. The New York Fed President and a Fed governor made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December. China will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [3][5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in sulfur prices, which have increased by over 300% since mid-2024, is expected to raise the costs of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and other related materials, potentially impacting the overall cost structure of the lithium battery industry [2][3]. Group 1: Sulfur Price Dynamics - Domestic solid sulfur prices have risen from approximately 915 yuan/ton to around 4100 yuan/ton, with some forecasts predicting prices could reach 6000 yuan/ton [3]. - The price increase is driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with rising contract prices in the Middle East and decreasing domestic port inventories, alongside growing demand from downstream sectors such as phosphate fertilizers and lithium batteries [3][4]. Group 2: Cost Implications for Phosphate Fertilizers - For phosphate fertilizers, a 100 yuan increase in sulfur prices leads to an approximate 50 yuan increase in production costs [6]. - Current estimates suggest that the cost of producing monoammonium phosphate has exceeded 4200 yuan/ton, while the selling price is around 3650 yuan/ton, indicating a loss of nearly 600 yuan per ton [6]. Group 3: Impact on Lithium Iron Phosphate Production - The production of one ton of lithium iron phosphate requires about 0.23 tons of sulfur, translating to a cost increase from approximately 210 yuan to 940 yuan per ton of LFP as sulfur prices rise [10]. - The overall cost structure of LFP shows that raw materials account for over 80% of total costs, with lithium sources and iron phosphate being significant components [11]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Considerations - The increase in sulfur costs is seen as a pressure point for LFP producers, who are already facing thin margins due to prolonged price declines and industry losses [16][17]. - The market is currently witnessing a rebound in processing fees for LFP, but the fundamental issues of profitability remain unresolved [16]. - The industry must focus on managing costs and pricing strategies, particularly in light of potential further increases in sulfur prices and their implications for overall production costs [24].

Price Trends - Magnesium 99.9% in Shanghai is priced at 16,905-17,005 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY [1] - Niobium ≥99.9% is priced at 665-675 CNY/kg, with no change [1] - Vanadium ≥99.5% is priced at 1,461-1,561 CNY/kg, with no change [1] - Electrolytic manganese in Guangxi is priced at 13,400-13,600 CNY/ton, with no change [1] - Lithium metal ≥99% is priced at 590,100-625,100 CNY/ton, with no change [1] - Arsenic metal is priced at 6,705-7,205 CNY/ton, with no change [1] - Sponge titanium ≥97-98% is priced at 45-46 CNY/kg, with no change [1] - Sponge zirconium ≥99% is priced at 166-171 CNY/kg, with no change [1] Mineral Product Prices - Copper concentrate 18-20% is priced at 76,050-80,001 CNY/metal ton [1] - Lead concentrate 50% from Henan is priced at 16,650-16,750 CNY/metal ton, while from Yunnan it is priced at 16,750-16,850 CNY/metal ton [1] - Zinc concentrate 50% from Yunnan is priced at 19,092-19,192 CNY/metal ton, while from Hunan it is priced at 19,042-19,142 CNY/metal ton [1] - Molybdenum concentrate 45% is priced at 3,621-3,651 CNY/ton [1] - Black tungsten concentrate 65% is priced at 342,100-343,100 CNY/ton [1] - White tungsten concentrate 65% is priced at 341,100-342,100 CNY/ton [1] - Tin concentrate 60% from Guangxi is priced at 295,800-297,800 CNY/metal ton [1] - Titanium concentrate TiO2 ≥46% is priced at 1,631-1,681 CNY/ton [1] - Carbonate rare earth is priced at 48,105-48,405 CNY/ton [1] - Red soil nickel ore 1.8% (FOB) is priced at 72-75 USD/wet ton [1] Non-Metal Prices - 521 silicon from East China is priced at 9,600-9,800 CNY/ton [2] - Borax with 95% content from Northeast is priced at 5,000 CNY/ton [2] - Borax with 95% content from Shandong is priced at 4,500 CNY/ton [2] - Talc food grade SiO2 ≥50% with 93 800 mesh is priced at 3,000 CNY/ton [2] - Diatomaceous earth with 86% silica from Henan is priced at 3,000 CNY/ton [2]

Group 1 - The article provides a detailed overview of the current prices of various metals and minerals, indicating fluctuations in market prices for specific commodities [1][2] - Cadmium is priced between 28,600 to 29,600 RMB per ton, while chromium ranges from 81,100 to 84,600 RMB per ton [1] - Lithium metal is reported at 575,100 to 610,100 RMB per ton, reflecting significant interest in battery materials [1] Group 2 - Non-metallic products such as boron and talc are also listed, with boron priced at 4,500 RMB per ton in Shandong and talc at 3,000 RMB per ton in Henan [2] - The report highlights the price of rare earth carbonate at 44,305 to 44,705 RMB per ton, indicating ongoing demand in the market [1] - The pricing for various ores, including copper and lead concentrates, shows a range of 16,650 to 16,800 RMB per ton for lead in Henan [1]

Core Insights - In October 2025, China's nickel ore imports totaled 4.6828 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.4316 million tons, representing a decline of 23.41%, but a year-on-year increase of 462,800 tons, or 10.97% [1] - The imports consisted of 4.6525 million tons of laterite nickel ore and 30,300 tons of sulfide nickel ore [1] - The Philippines was the primary source of laterite nickel ore, supplying 4.3468 million tons, which accounted for 92.82% of the total imports for the month [1] - From January to October 2025, the total nickel ore imports reached 36.9309 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.80% [1] - The significant reduction in nickel ore imports in October is attributed to the onset of the rainy season in the Philippines [1]