摘要 硫磺暴涨300%，磷酸铁锂成本会被推高到哪儿？ 在锂电材料轮番涨价之后，化工圈 "黑马"硫磺也冲上舞台。 自2024年中以来，国产硫磺价格从不足千元涨至4000元/吨上方，涨幅超过300%，市场上迅速出现一种说法：作为磷酸铁锂、磷肥、钛白粉等多 个链条的共用原料，这轮"牛磺"行情将再次推高新能源电池成本。 问题在于，对已经经历三年亏损、刚刚酝酿涨价的磷酸铁锂行业而言，硫磺究竟是主矛盾，还是一项被放大的边际变量？ 硫磺价格四倍上涨，供需剪刀差推到台前 公开报价显示，自 2024年6月中旬至2025年12月初，国产固体硫磺港口价由约915元/吨一路攀升至4100元/吨左右，累计涨幅超过300%，已逼 近2022年高点，部分机构甚至喊出"冲击6000元/吨"的预期。 这一轮行情的直接驱动在于供需剪刀差：一端是中东等地合约价大幅上调、国内港口库存降至 "警戒线"，另一端是磷肥、钛白粉、高压酸浸镍 （HPAL）、锂电池等下游对硫酸需求持续扩张。 相关监测机构测算，2025年9月国产固体硫磺月均价已超过2500元/吨，此后在卡塔尔合约价上涨和国内刚需补库的叠加下，12月初长江、镇江等 港口现货报价突破4000元关口 ...

Price Trends - Magnesium 99.9% in Shanghai is priced at 16,905-17,005 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY [1] - Niobium ≥99.9% is priced at 665-675 CNY/kg, with no change [1] - Vanadium ≥99.5% is priced at 1,461-1,561 CNY/kg, with no change [1] - Electrolytic manganese in Guangxi is priced at 13,400-13,600 CNY/ton, with no change [1] - Lithium metal ≥99% is priced at 590,100-625,100 CNY/ton, with no change [1] - Arsenic metal is priced at 6,705-7,205 CNY/ton, with no change [1] - Sponge titanium ≥97-98% is priced at 45-46 CNY/kg, with no change [1] - Sponge zirconium ≥99% is priced at 166-171 CNY/kg, with no change [1] Mineral Product Prices - Copper concentrate 18-20% is priced at 76,050-80,001 CNY/metal ton [1] - Lead concentrate 50% from Henan is priced at 16,650-16,750 CNY/metal ton, while from Yunnan it is priced at 16,750-16,850 CNY/metal ton [1] - Zinc concentrate 50% from Yunnan is priced at 19,092-19,192 CNY/metal ton, while from Hunan it is priced at 19,042-19,142 CNY/metal ton [1] - Molybdenum concentrate 45% is priced at 3,621-3,651 CNY/ton [1] - Black tungsten concentrate 65% is priced at 342,100-343,100 CNY/ton [1] - White tungsten concentrate 65% is priced at 341,100-342,100 CNY/ton [1] - Tin concentrate 60% from Guangxi is priced at 295,800-297,800 CNY/metal ton [1] - Titanium concentrate TiO2 ≥46% is priced at 1,631-1,681 CNY/ton [1] - Carbonate rare earth is priced at 48,105-48,405 CNY/ton [1] - Red soil nickel ore 1.8% (FOB) is priced at 72-75 USD/wet ton [1] Non-Metal Prices - 521 silicon from East China is priced at 9,600-9,800 CNY/ton [2] - Borax with 95% content from Northeast is priced at 5,000 CNY/ton [2] - Borax with 95% content from Shandong is priced at 4,500 CNY/ton [2] - Talc food grade SiO2 ≥50% with 93 800 mesh is priced at 3,000 CNY/ton [2] - Diatomaceous earth with 86% silica from Henan is priced at 3,000 CNY/ton [2]

Group 1 - The article provides a detailed overview of the current prices of various metals and minerals, indicating fluctuations in market prices for specific commodities [1][2] - Cadmium is priced between 28,600 to 29,600 RMB per ton, while chromium ranges from 81,100 to 84,600 RMB per ton [1] - Lithium metal is reported at 575,100 to 610,100 RMB per ton, reflecting significant interest in battery materials [1] Group 2 - Non-metallic products such as boron and talc are also listed, with boron priced at 4,500 RMB per ton in Shandong and talc at 3,000 RMB per ton in Henan [2] - The report highlights the price of rare earth carbonate at 44,305 to 44,705 RMB per ton, indicating ongoing demand in the market [1] - The pricing for various ores, including copper and lead concentrates, shows a range of 16,650 to 16,800 RMB per ton for lead in Henan [1]

Core Insights - In October 2025, China's nickel ore imports totaled 4.6828 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.4316 million tons, representing a decline of 23.41%, but a year-on-year increase of 462,800 tons, or 10.97% [1] - The imports consisted of 4.6525 million tons of laterite nickel ore and 30,300 tons of sulfide nickel ore [1] - The Philippines was the primary source of laterite nickel ore, supplying 4.3468 million tons, which accounted for 92.82% of the total imports for the month [1] - From January to October 2025, the total nickel ore imports reached 36.9309 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.80% [1] - The significant reduction in nickel ore imports in October is attributed to the onset of the rainy season in the Philippines [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel are weak, and both are continuing to find their bottoms. The nickel market is in a situation of "tightening in the long - term, but loose in the short - term" due to the new Indonesian policy, and stainless steel is affected by factors such as real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports [1][3]. - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, but attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices. Stainless steel prices are also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to low demand, inventory accumulation, and a downward shift in cost centers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,300 yuan/ton and closed at 118,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.62% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,248 (+28,336) lots, and the open interest was 116,829 (1,929) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern. The new Indonesian policy on nickel smelter investment restrictions may tighten capacity expansion in the long - term, but the short - term production capacity of wet - process intermediate products is still being released. The weak stainless - steel consumption on the demand side leads to insufficient rebound power in the Shanghai nickel market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market is calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is affected by typhoons, and the shipping efficiency is delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron is falling, and iron plants have a lower psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November is expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. After the Shanghai nickel price fell below 120,000 yuan, the spot market is more watchful, and trading is light. The spot premiums of various brands have not changed. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,824 (-468) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,114 (-1,194) tons [2]. Strategy - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,520 yuan/ton and closed at 12,485 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,852 (-22,462) lots, and the open interest was 137,838 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel prices, the contract continued its weak oscillation. Although domestic steel mills' losses are increasing, the inertia of capacity release remains, and the demand side is still sluggish due to factors such as the real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports. Overall, stainless steel is still in a bottom - grinding state [3]. - **Spot**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and spot trading is sluggish. Many traders are selling at low prices to recover funds, and the daily quotes continue to decline slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,825 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 335 to 685 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 909.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is in a pattern of high inventory and oversupply, with nickel prices expected to remain in low - level oscillations. A significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore supply in the fourth quarter may lead to a nickel price rebound [1][2]. - The stainless - steel market shows weak demand recovery and loose cost support, and stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,860 yuan/ton and closed at 120,030 yuan/ton, a - 0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 123,448 (+577) lots, and the open interest was 115,164 (-3296) lots. The price fluctuated within a range of about 1,390 yuan, with a significant narrowing compared to previous days. The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 1,977 tons to 32,929 tons, and the LME nickel inventory, although unchanged at 252,750 tons, had a cumulative increase of 20,300 tons in the past month and an 8.79% year - on - year increase [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has been calm with stable prices. There is a gap between supply and demand, and market sentiment is cautious. In the Philippines, increased rainfall and the typhoon "Seagull" may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [1][2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Due to the large price drop, spot trading was good, and the spot premium of each brand remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,800 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 5, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,555 yuan/ton and closed at 12,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 90,380 (-21,042) lots, and the open interest was 74,412 (-4,171) lots. Affected by Shanghai nickel and the black - metal sector, the price showed a weak oscillation, with a fluctuation range of about 100 yuan, further narrowing from the previous day [2][3]. - **Spot**: Market pessimism intensified, spot prices were generally lowered, but trading remained weak. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,900 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 315 - 615 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 919.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, the contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns is in a game, and it is difficult to break the short - term narrow - range situation. The fundamental supply of refined nickel is increasing while demand is weakening, which restricts the upward flexibility. The key support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policy. There is support at the bottom, and long - term volatility may increase [1]. - For stainless steel, the downward space is limited, and there is no effective upward driving force. It is recommended to focus on a conservative range - trading strategy, wait for low - level buying opportunities, and avoid chasing high prices. Demand is suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, and supply elasticity may limit the upward space [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Fundamentals Shanghai Nickel - The domestic and overseas visible inventory of refined nickel has returned to the accumulation stage. The market generally expects the slowdown of invisible restocking. The substitution ratio of nickel - iron for nickel plates in the nickel - alloy sector has increased, and there is an expectation of increased production of pure nickel and low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term, which restricts the upward flexibility of Shanghai Nickel [1]. - The core support for the bulls is the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policy. Although the actual impact is controllable, short - term inspection results may increase market concerns and strengthen the bottom - support logic of nickel ore [1]. Stainless Steel - Demand is jointly suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, resulting in a weak consumption peak season. However, the over - drafting effect of early export rush has been basically digested, showing marginal low - level repair [2]. - The supply - side elasticity is relatively large, which may limit the upward space of stainless steel. The production schedule in October increased by 3% month - on - month to 3.45 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The 300 - series is about 1.77 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/ month - on - month increase of 4.2%/3.5% [2]. - The overall inventory of factories and social warehouses has declined from the high level. Although the year - on - year inventory accumulation in the middle and upstream has basically converged, the absolute inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and downstream procurement is still cautious, lacking an effective upward driving force [2]. 2. Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 191 tons to 47,696 tons. Among them, the warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 232 tons to 26,810 tons, the spot inventory increased by 243 tons to 16,816 tons (nickel plates increased by 243 tons, and nickel beans remained unchanged), and the bonded - area inventory increased by 180 tons to 4,070 tons. LME inventory increased by 324 tons to 250,854 tons [5]. - New Energy: On October 24th, the inventory days of the upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by - 1, - 1, and +1 month - on - month to 4, 8, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory on October 24th changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.9 days, and the ternary material inventory on October 23rd remained flat month - on - month at 7.1 days [5]. - Nickel Ore - Nickel Iron - Stainless Steel: On October 15th, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,062 tons, with a stable and slightly increasing month - on - month trend and a year - on - year increase of 41%. In September, the SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a month - on - year/month - on - month increase/decrease of 4%/ - 1%. On October 23rd, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the Steel Union decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 1,027,402 tons, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 0.89% week - on - week to 649,326 tons [5]. 3. Market News - On September 12th, the Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over a 148 - hectare nickel - ore mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect the nickel - ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [7]. - On September 22nd, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees. Once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees until 2025, the sanctions will be automatically cancelled [7]. - On September 30th, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15th this year. According to the transition clause, if the 2026 RKAB has been applied for through the online system but not approved by the end of this year, the 2026 RKAB approved by the minister or governor before the entry into force of this ministerial order can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31st, 2026 [7]. - On October 10th, US President Trump claimed on social media that the US might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [8].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel show a fierce game between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore logic, with contradictions still accumulating. In the short - term, it's difficult to break through the narrow - range pattern, while long - term volatility is expected to increase. The core support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of the Indonesian nickel ore supply governance policy [2]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel make it difficult to find an upward driving force, but the downward space is limited. The market may marginally stabilize and fluctuate. The long - term and short - term, as well as reality and expectation, are involved in the long - short game [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - demand situation**: The smelting end has returned to steep inventory accumulation, with the surplus concentrated in the refined nickel segment. The marginal supply of refined nickel increases while demand is weak, and the expected new production of pure nickel in the second half of the year exerts pressure. Although the fundamentals of non - standard nickel have marginally improved, the conversion of refined nickel production has not effectively alleviated the inventory accumulation contradiction of refined nickel [2]. - **Supporting factors**: The uncertainties in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the Indonesian nickel ore supply governance policy support the price. For example, some areas of the WBN park were taken over due to violations of forestry license regulations, and mines failing to pay reclamation deposits were ordered to suspend production. The Indonesian government also urged enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget online, which may lead to increased market inventory and support the nickel ore price [2]. Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Demand side**: The overdraft effect of early export rush has been basically digested, but demand is still suppressed by the resonance of tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of apparent demand is only half of the previous year, 2.6% [3]. - **Supply side**: The supply growth rate has declined compared with previous years but has a marginal increase. The production plan for October is 3.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The 300 - series is about 1.77 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/month - on - month increase of 4.2%/3.5%. The total supply (including imports) cumulative growth rate is expected to be 1.8% [3]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The cumulative surplus (inventory accumulation) has converged compared with previous years. In the long - term, the stainless - steel industry may shift from a one - sided valuation - reduction logic of strong supply and weak demand to a bottom - seeking thinking of both weak supply and demand. In the short - term, there is no upward driving force in the fundamentals, but the cost limits the downward space [3]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined nickel**: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 47,505 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,814 tons to 27,042 tons, the spot inventory increased by 261 tons to 16,573 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 3,890 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 13,152 tons to 250,530 tons [6]. - **New energy**: On October 17, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by - 1, - 1, + 1 month - on - month to 4, 8, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory on October 17 changed by - 1 month - on - month to 13.0 days; the ternary material inventory on October 9 remained unchanged month - on - month at 7.1 days [6]. - **Nickel - iron and stainless steel**: On October 15, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,062 tons, with a stable and slightly increasing month - on - month trend and a year - on - year increase of 41%. In September, the SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 1.532 million tons, a year - on - month/month - on - month increase/decrease of 4%/ - 1%. On October 16, the Mysteel stainless - steel social inventory was 1.0412 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%, and the 300 - series inventory was 655,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02% [6]. Market News - **Indonesian mining sanctions**: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare mining area of PT WedaBav Nickel. The Indonesian government also imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees [7][8]. - **Policy regulations**: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the preparation, submission, and approval procedures of the mining RKAB and the reporting procedures for activity implementation. The approval plan for the next - year's RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15 this year [9]. - **Trade news**: China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8][9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,160, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630. There were also corresponding price changes compared with previous periods [11]. - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 76,335, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 147,948, with different volume changes compared with previous periods [11]. - **Industrial chain data**: Data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, nickel bean premium, and various product spreads and import profits were provided, showing different trends compared with previous periods [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, with average downstream transactions and no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. In the industry chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and due to the impact of typhoons, the loading and shipping of mines might be delayed. Ferronickel prices remained stable, with a firm cost line, and ferronickel enterprises were still in the red. The inventory reduction of stainless steel during the "Golden September and Silver October" slowed down. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, but the installation of ternary batteries still showed a decline, which had limited impact on the increase in nickel demand. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Outlook**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, with average downstream transactions and no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. The medium - and long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: - Shanghai nickel main contract: It will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, oscillating in the range of 120,000 - 123,800 [9]. - Stainless steel main contract: It will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: - Some nickel ore grades saw a slight increase of $1 per wet ton, and the freight rate remained the same as last week. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate increased by 1.76%. The prices of low - nickel ferronickel and high - nickel ferronickel in Shandong remained unchanged. The prices of electrolytic nickel and 304 stainless steel decreased slightly [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: - Some nickel ore prices increased slightly, and the freight rate remained flat. As of September 26, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.0937 million wet tons, an increase of 0.66%. In August 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.72%. This week, nickel ore transactions were okay, and due to the impact of typhoons, the loading and shipping volume of Philippine mines might be delayed. Indonesia's supply was still abundant [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: - Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and there was no pre - holiday restocking demand. In the long - term, the supply and demand would continue to increase, but the surplus pattern would not change. The domestic new energy sector might be a new demand driver. In the medium - and long - term, prices might be under pressure, but would not deviate far from the cost line, and the center of gravity might shift downward. In August 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,695 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.62%. The LME inventory increased by 1,680 tons, while the Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 959 tons [22][25][39]. - **Ferronickel Market**: - Ferronickel prices remained stable. In August 2025, China's ferronickel production was 22,900 tons of metal, a year - on - year decrease of 9.96%. The import volume in August was 874,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.4%. The inventory in August was 218,900 physical tons, equivalent to 21,700 tons of nickel [43][47][53]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 0.36% this week. In August, the stainless steel crude steel production was 3.3156 million tons, and the 300 - series production increased by 2.34% month - on - month. The import volume was 117,100 tons, and the export volume was 447,900 tons. As of September 26, the national inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 260 tons month - on - month [58][64][70]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: - In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%. The production of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. The sales volume of power batteries was 98.9 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 44.4%. The installation volume of power batteries was 62.5 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 32.4%, among which the installation volume of ternary batteries decreased by 10.0% year - on - year [74][77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price still fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. The position increased when the price rose and decreased when it fell, indicating that the main players were selling high and buying low. The MACD red bar fluctuated slightly above the 0 axis, showing obvious lack of momentum and no clear direction. The KDJ was downward but not in the oversold area. The price was mainly oscillating, and the amplitude might be enlarged due to the influence of the surrounding market [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - The impact of each link on nickel prices: - Nickel ore: Neutral. Transactions were okay, quotes were stable, freight rates were firm, and it might be affected by typhoons in the short term [83]. - Ferronickel: Neutral. Ferronickel prices remained stable, and the cost line was firm [83]. - Refined nickel: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, and overseas inventory continued to accumulate [83]. - Stainless steel: Slightly bullish. The cost was firm, and the inventory decreased [83]. - New energy: Neutral. The production data were good, but the installation of ternary batteries decreased year - on - year [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information is provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Report's Core View - After the end of macro - event influence, nickel prices return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a pattern of oversupply remaining unchanged, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level fluctuations. Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive inventory drops and rising material costs, and subsequent consumption peak - season demand needs to be monitored [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,690 yuan/ton and closed at 120,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.89% compared to the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 81,612 (- 9,122) lots, and the open interest was 55,044 (- 3,785) lots. Due to the approaching Fed interest - rate decision, the main contract fluctuated slightly around the previous trading - day's settlement price at night. After the Fed's interest - rate cut did not exceed market expectations, the price of the main contract fluctuated downward during the day, and the market focus returned to the fundamental logic of cost support and marginal changes in demand [1]. - The nickel - ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had firm quotes. The downstream nickel - iron price was temporarily stable, domestic iron plants' profits remained in the red, and nickel - ore procurement was cautious. In Indonesia, the supply remained loose, and the Wedabay incident had little impact. The September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the current domestic trade premium was +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,890 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price was basically stable, and the spot premiums and discounts of each brand did not change. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained at 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 25,866 (- 275) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 228,450 (- 18) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,875 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 175,834 (+ 5,708) lots, and the open interest was 132,228 (- 4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, due to the approaching Fed interest - rate decision, the main contract fluctuated slightly around the previous trading - day's settlement price at night. After the Fed's interest - rate cut did not exceed market expectations, the price of the main contract fluctuated downward during the day, and the market focus returned to the fundamental logic of cost support and marginal changes in demand [3]. - Downstream buyers remained on the sidelines, and spot trading was light. The price remained stable. The expected pre - National Day holiday stocking demand offset the impact of the decline in the futures market. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 to 615 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].