Core Viewpoint - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House of Representatives is expected to increase the net deficit by at least $3 trillion over the next decade, with significant implications for U.S. fiscal policy and economic growth [3][11][28]. Summary by Sections Bill Content and Progress - The "Big Beautiful Bill" includes the permanent extension of key provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, additional tax relief measures, and increased spending in defense and border security while cutting expenditures in agriculture, education, and energy [3][11][13]. - The bill is projected to increase the national debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next ten years, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) [11][28]. Tax Policy - The bill extends and makes permanent the major provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, introduces new personal and family tax cuts, and raises the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 [13][14]. - It also imposes higher tax rates on passive income for individuals and corporations from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, potentially reaching a maximum rate of 20% [4][14]. Deficit and Revenue Projections - The estimated annual tariff revenue is projected to reach around $200 billion, which could help mitigate the deficit increase caused by the bill, although it will not fully cover the shortfall from tax cuts [5][30]. - Under baseline assumptions, the deficit rates for 2025 to 2028 are estimated to be around 6.4% to 7.0%, with optimistic scenarios potentially lowering the rates slightly [6][30][28]. Economic Impact - The bill is expected to provide a marginal boost to economic growth, with projections indicating a real GDP growth rate of approximately 1.5% in 2025 and a potential recovery to 2.0%-2.5% in 2026 due to tax cuts and lower interest rates [7][32]. - However, the long-term fiscal sustainability remains a concern, as the combination of increased deficits and rising interest payments could lead to a significant increase in the national debt [34][38]. Long-term Debt and Interest Risks - The CBO estimates that if the ten-year Treasury yield remains at 4.5%, interest payments could exceed $13 trillion by 2034, significantly increasing the fiscal burden [34][38]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from nearly 100% to 128% by 2034, raising concerns among credit rating agencies about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [38]. Market Reactions and Bond Yields - Recent increases in long-term U.S. Treasury yields are attributed to the "Trump premium," reflecting market concerns over the fiscal implications of the "Big Beautiful Bill" and the potential for increased deficits [45][51]. - Despite short-term pressures, the 10-year Treasury bonds are still viewed as having significant investment value, especially in light of potential future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [52].

以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师 于金潼 、中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁伟奥 5月22日，美国众议院以215比2 1 4票的微弱优势通过2 0 2 5财年预算 协调法案"The One , Bi g, Be a utif ul Bill "（大美丽法案）。不同机 构估计，该法案将在未来1 0年内使净赤字增加至少3万亿美元。这个 法案究竟会带来什么影响？ 大美丽法案包括什么？ 5月22日，美国众议院以215比214票的微弱优势通过2025财年预算协调法案"The One, Big, Beautiful Bill"（大美丽法案）。不同机构估计，该法案将在未来 10 年内使净赤字增加至少3 万亿美元。主要内容包括延长并永久化2017年《减税和就业法案》的主要条款，并添加额外的税收减免 政策；虽然在农业、教育、能源等领域削减了支出，但在国防和边境安全上扩大了支出，叠加减税政 策，总体上法案让美国政府赤字进一步上行。 其中外国资产税引人注意，法案第899条规定对美国认为 存在税收政策"歧 ...

30年期美债收益率涨10个基点，报5.07%。 标普500指数下跌1%，保健、房地产、金融、公用事业、可选消费、工业、能源板块至多跌超1.8%，电 信板块仍然涨1.1%。 道指下跌超过660点，跌幅扩大至1.5%，成分股联合健康跌5.4%，耐克跌3.4%，美国运通、3M、苹 果、波音至多跌超2.9%，英伟达转跌。 纳指跌130点，跌幅0.7%。 纳斯达克生物科技指数跌1.86%，费城半导体指数跌0.7%、银行指数跌2.2%，小盘股罗素2000指数跌 1.2%。 ...