钱被按下了暂停键 很多人对"央行在印钱"的焦虑，来自日常感受的错位：商场里标签没怎么变、菜市场的秤还是那副脾气，工资每月按时到账，似乎并没有"钱泛滥"的迹象。 他注意到，在现代货币体系里，新钱常常先卡在金融机构的账面，像水库闸门背后的水，尚未冲进街巷。资产市场对资金最敏感——股票、房子、债券会先 被托起来，肉蛋菜的CPI却不一定马上动，这种传导差异，让"印钱"看起来像悄无声息的暗流。 这背后不是随意摁下印钞按钮的任性，而是有章法的资产交换。现代央行"造钱"的每一步，都有对应的资产做托底，不同渠道带来不同的力度与侧影，像三 条并行的水渠，既能灌田，也能就地蓄水。 三条"有抵押"的造币路 比较这三条渠道，能看清"钱从哪来"。 第一条是外汇进来的钱。假设一家做奶茶的小公司收到10万美元的海外订单，老板去银行换成人民币，按7:1的汇率，账户上多了70万元。商业银行攒下的 美元不是躺着，它会流向银行间市场，央行在那儿当接盘者，买入这笔外汇，变成国家的外汇储备，同时投放等额的基础货币。这一投一收是一体的：央行 的资产端多了外汇储备，负债端多了商业银行的准备金。长期卖出的东西比买得多、外汇净流入时，央行的基础货币也就被动多 ...

Western Alliance Bancorporation (NYSE:WAL) stock dropped 3.4% in Wednesday afternoon trading after a media report described the company's exposure to debt related to First Brands, an auto-parts maker that filed for bankruptcy in September. The bank faces the exposure through ...

Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the importance of understanding debt cycles and their impact on economies, as outlined in his new book "How Countries Fail: The Big Cycle" [3][4] - The book presents a framework for understanding the cyclical nature of national rise and fall, warning investors to look beyond market trends [3][4] Group 1: Key Questions Addressed - The article raises critical questions about the limits of national debt growth, the implications of rising interest rates, and the potential for a major reserve currency nation like the U.S. to face bankruptcy [5][6] - It highlights the lack of clear answers to these questions, which are crucial for investors and policymakers alike [6] Group 2: Research Perspective - The research is conducted from a global macro investor's perspective, drawing on over 50 years of experience with various debt cycles [8][9] - Dalio's analysis includes a review of significant debt cycles over the past century and a broader examination of 500 years of history to identify patterns and mechanisms [9] Group 3: Long-Term Debt Cycle - Dalio identifies a long-term debt cycle that spans approximately 80 years, which is often overlooked due to its duration and the human tendency to focus on immediate events [10][11] - He argues that understanding these cycles is essential for recognizing potential debt crises and their implications for economies [11] Group 4: The Big Cycle Framework - The "Big Cycle" encompasses various interrelated cycles, including debt cycles, domestic political harmony and conflict, international geopolitical dynamics, natural forces, and technological breakthroughs [12] - The transition from one order to another during crises is a key theme, with the potential for significant upheaval in monetary, domestic governance, and international systems [12][13] Group 5: Future Implications - The article suggests that the next 5-10 years will be a period of significant change, with many current rising entities potentially declining and vice versa [16][17] - It emphasizes the importance of managing various forces effectively to navigate the challenges posed by debt, conflict, and technological change [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article expresses a strong bullish outlook on silver prices, predicting a rise from the current level of 46 to a range of 40-50, with a potential increase of around 10% [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The expectation of interest rate cuts is a key driver for rising gold and silver prices, influenced by a cooling job market and increasing unemployment rates in the U.S. [5][6]. - The current federal benchmark interest rate is still above the neutral rate, suggesting that a reduction is necessary to stimulate the economy, with anticipated cuts exceeding expectations next year [6]. - Global fiscal expansion and rising debt risks are contributing to a bullish environment for gold, as major economies face increasing government debt and deficit concerns [7][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Speculative funds entering the market are significantly impacting gold prices, with a shift from a drag to a boost in price momentum as market sentiment improves [11][12]. - Predictions indicate that gold prices could reach 4,200 USD/oz by mid-next year, driven by continued demand from central banks and speculative investors [13]. Group 3: Historical Context - The relationship between gold prices and changes in the global monetary system is highlighted, with past transitions leading to significant price increases [14]. - The current challenges to the dollar-based monetary system are prompting a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [15]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold, reversing previous trends of reduction, which is expected to support higher gold prices [17][18]. - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with central banks viewing gold as a key asset in their reserves [20][21]. Group 5: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, such as supply chain disruptions and sanctions, are driving demand for precious metals, particularly silver, which has both safe-haven and industrial properties [32][33]. Group 6: Silver Market Specifics - Industrial demand for silver is surging, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to require over 50,000 tons annually due to increased solar installations [35]. - Supply constraints are evident, with global silver production projected to decline by 1.3% in 2024 due to mine closures and strikes [36]. - Market sentiment is shifting positively, with significant inflows into silver ETFs and increased physical demand, indicating a robust investment environment [37][38].

Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the importance of understanding debt cycles and their impact on national economies, particularly in his new book "How Countries Fail: The Big Cycle" [3][4] - The book outlines a quantifiable and monitorable "big debt cycle" that leads to systemic crises, akin to an "economic heart attack" [3][5] - Dalio's research spans 500 years of world history, providing a theoretical framework to explain the cyclical nature of national rise and fall [3][6] Group 1: Key Questions Addressed - The article raises critical questions regarding the limits of national debt growth, the implications of rising interest rates, and the potential for a major reserve currency nation like the U.S. to face bankruptcy [5][6] - It highlights the lack of clear answers to these questions, which are essential for investors and policymakers alike [6][7] Group 2: Macro Investor Perspective - Dalio approaches the study of debt from a global macro investor's perspective, having experienced multiple debt cycles over the past 50 years [8][9] - His research includes an analysis of significant debt cycles over the last century and a broader examination of 500 years of historical cases [9][10] Group 3: Understanding the Big Cycle - The "big debt cycle" typically spans around 80 years, making it difficult for individuals to recognize its patterns within their lifetimes [10][11] - Dalio argues that societal focus on immediate events often obscures the larger macroeconomic picture, leading to systemic biases in understanding debt risks [11][12] Group 4: The Nature of Order - The evolution of order is defined as the transition from one operational paradigm to another, influenced by monetary, political, and geopolitical factors [12][13] - Dalio asserts that the collapse of these orders often occurs only once in a person's lifetime, accompanied by significant pain [12][13] Group 5: Current Economic Context - The article discusses the dangers of assuming that current high levels of government debt will not lead to crises, drawing parallels to historical conflicts and crises [11][14] - It emphasizes the need for a dynamic model to analyze current situations against historical precedents to understand potential future outcomes [14][15] Group 6: Future Trends and Implications - Dalio predicts that the next 5-10 years will witness significant changes in major orders, with many currently rising entities potentially declining [16][17] - The article suggests that while technological advancements may have a substantial positive impact, they may not be sufficient to counteract negative forces such as debt and conflict [16][17] Group 7: Importance of Human Capital - Countries that effectively manage their debt and provide quality education and opportunities for their citizens are likely to thrive [17][18] - The article warns that extreme partisanship and conflict within societies can lead to dire consequences, emphasizing the need for collective problem-solving [18][19]

"一个亿小目标"，是大连万达董事长王健林2016年8月在接受鲁豫采访时说的，他说：先定一个小目 标，比如我先挣它一个亿。 王健林说这话时候，口气是相当大的，大得让无数人听了之后忍不住想骂人。 当然，那时候的王健林，确实有说这种话的底气。就在前一年，也就是2015年，他已成为全球华人首 富，财富高达2600亿。面对首富说这样的话，就算再不服气，又能将他怎么着。 只是，当年的王健林，一定做梦也不会想到，10年后的今天，他会遭遇截然相反的处境。 据智通财经报道，近日，大连万达集团股份有限公司及其法定代表人王健林等被限制高消费。案件流程 显示，此前，大连万达集团股份有限公司、万达地产集团有限公司等因此案被强制执行1.86亿。 被限制高消费，不只是有债没还，而是指有偿债能力，就是不履行偿债义务。所以，限制高消费，也被 称作"老赖"。 对，老赖。老赖是被人看不起的，会被人当作品质存在问题。王健林从首富变成"老赖"，一个亿只是小 目标，到被强制执行1.86亿，讽刺意味太浓了。 于是，有人发问，短短的10年时间，就败光了千亿财富，从首富变成老赖，王健林也太难败了吧。 这话可以这样说，但千万别这样说。因为，王健林们的财富，原本 ...

另一方面，美联储降息，美元走弱，短期内来看可能会推高黄金、铂金等大宗商品价格。南非这样的大宗商品出口国可能会从中获益。短期来说 美联储降息将带来额外外汇收入。然而依赖资源价格上涨并非长久之计。一旦美元重新走强或全球需求下滑，出口收益将迅速回落。更加值得警 惕的是，降息往往伴随着"廉价资金"，这可能诱使非洲政府与企业进一步扩大外部借贷。从短期看，降息意味着债务利息成本下降，长期来看却 可能埋下债务风险。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：潘煦 不少分析人士提醒，美联储降息很可能导致美元走弱，新兴市场资产重新受到追捧，短期资本流入南非。这将推高南非兰特汇率，表面上有助于 缓解输入型通胀，但同时可能对出口企业造成冲击，进而压缩贸易相关财税收入。当前南非税收高度依赖进出口环节，一旦贸易量下滑，财政压 力随之加大。 （央视财经《正点财经》）美联储降息对远在非洲大陆南端的南非而言，不仅是金融新闻，更可能成为左右南非汇率、资本流动和财税收入的关 键变量。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices reflects a growing distrust in fiat currencies among global economic participants, including the general public, investment institutions, and central banks [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The increase in gold prices is driven by a trust crisis in fiat currencies, as people perceive a decline in purchasing power due to the excessive issuance of money by central banks [1][4]. - The current economic environment is characterized by high inflation and low growth, leading to a situation where the actual value of money diminishes while income growth remains stagnant [4][12]. - The U.S. inflation complexity is largely a consequence of the Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing policies from 2019 to 2020, which has resulted in a significant depreciation of currency value [4][12]. Group 2: Investment Institutions - Investment institutions are increasingly cautious about traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries due to rising national debt, which stands at 130% of GDP, and a total debt of $40 trillion [5][7]. - The lack of a clear debt reduction plan in the U.S. has diminished institutional confidence in U.S. Treasuries, leading them to seek alternatives like gold, which is perceived as a more stable and scarce asset [7][9]. - Institutions are diversifying their asset allocations to mitigate risks associated with fiat currency depreciation and the potential collapse of traditional safe-haven assets [4][9]. Group 3: Central Banks - Central banks, particularly outside the U.S., have significantly increased their gold reserves, surpassing their holdings in U.S. Treasuries, indicating a shift in attitude towards the dollar and U.S. debt [9][11]. - Concerns among central banks include the potential weaponization of the dollar by the U.S. government and the increasing difficulty of obtaining dollars due to trade tensions and tariffs [11][12]. - Asian central banks have been particularly active in accumulating gold to enhance their financial stability and risk resilience amid global economic uncertainties [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of high inflation, low growth, and a global trust crisis in fiat currencies is expected to sustain upward pressure on gold prices in the short to medium term [12][14]. - The emergence of digital gold may revolutionize the gold market by improving liquidity and expanding its application scenarios, potentially driving further price increases [15].

达利欧将美国不断增加的偿债支出比作堵塞血管的斑块，指出这会"挤出其他开支"，并可能导致"心脏 病发作"。他建议，在一个充分分散的投资组合中，应配置10%至15%的黄金。 桥水基金创始人达利欧发出警告，美国日益沉重的债务负担正将其市场推向风险边缘，他建议投资者 将黄金作为对冲工具，以抵御潜在的系统性危机。 近日，达利欧在一次活动上将美国不断增加的偿债支出比作堵塞血管的斑块，指出这会"挤出其他开 支"，并可能导致"心脏病发作"。 达利欧认为，在一个"债务充斥"且地缘政治紧张局势加剧的世界里，投资者在构建一个中立的投资组 合时，应该反思"你拥有的是谁的钱？"他给出了具体的资产配置建议， 即在一个充分多元化的投资组 合中，黄金应占有10%到15%的比重。 截至周三收盘，得益于低于预期的通胀数据以及市场对美联储下周降息的普遍预期，标普500指数和 纳斯达克综合指数今年以来分别上涨超过11%和13%，并双双创下历史新高。 "英国和法国处境类似，但市场已经对它们施加了比对美国更严厉的约束"。 债务"心脏病"警报下，黄金的避险价值 达利欧的警告核心在于美国不断膨胀的债务及其服务成本。他在为即将于12月举行的阿布扎比金融周 举 ...

桥水基金创始人达利欧发出警告，美国日益沉重的债务负担正将其市场推向风险边缘，他建议投资者将黄金作为对冲工具，以 抵御潜在的系统性危机。 近日，达利欧在一次活动上将美国不断增加的偿债支出比作堵塞血管的斑块，指出这会"挤出其他开支"，并可能导致"心脏病发 作"。 他建议，在一个充分分散的投资组合中，应配置10%至15%的黄金。这一观点提出之际，美国股市正因通胀数据降温和降息预 期而迭创新高。 同场参与讨论的渣打集团首席执行官Bill Winters表示，尽管欧洲市场的估值不像美国那么高，但面临着相似的状况： "英国和法国处境类似，但市场已经对它们施加了比对美国更严厉的约束"。 达利欧认为，在一个"债务充斥"且地缘政治紧张局势加剧的世界里，投资者在构建一个中立的投资组合时，应该反思"你拥有的 是谁的钱？"他给出了具体的资产配置建议，即在一个充分多元化的投资组合中，黄金应占有10%到15%的比重。 债务"心脏病"警报下，黄金的避险价值 达利欧的警告核心在于美国不断膨胀的债务及其服务成本。他在为即将于12月举行的阿布扎比金融周举办的一场启动活动上表 示，当一个国家花费更多资金来偿还债务时，必然会挤压其他必要的政府支出， ...