美国财政部7月份的报告显示，第一轮关税于4月9日启动，对大多数贸易伙伴征收10%的关税，并在90 天内带来了1000亿美元的收入。7月份，关税收入更是创下月度新高，达到280亿美元，比去年同期激增 273%。截至本财年，关税收入已累计达到1420亿美元。贝森特在一次会议上指出，8月和9月将是关键 的检验期，全年关税收入可能超过GDP的1%。特朗普政府在2月和3月以芬太尼问题为由，率先对中国 商品加征20%的关税，随后在4月将这一政策扩大到全球范围。特朗普一直大力宣传关税带来的巨额收 入，甚至设想利用这些资金向民众发放红利，例如每人600美元的退税支票，一个四口之家可以获得 2400美元。然而，贝森特对此泼了一盆冷水，表示尚未与特朗普讨论过此事，偿还债务才是更优先的选 择。 关税收入的激增，在一定程度上掩盖了美国经济面临的挑战。以家居巨头家得宝为例，其二季度业绩表 现平平，净收入与去年同期持平，每股收益略有增长但未达到市场预期。尽管家得宝超过50%的产品在 国内生产，受关税影响较小，但进口商品的价格上涨已经对其造成了影响。公司高管明确表示，部分商 品不得不提价。宝洁、沃尔玛等大型企业也纷纷发出预警，预计约有三分 ...

美东时间周二，美国财政部长贝森特表示，他预计特朗普征收的全面关税将使美国财政收入大幅增加， 并表示这笔钱将首先用于偿还联邦债务，而不是给美国人发放退税支票。 美国关税收入将优先用于偿还国债 贝森特表示，他预计会大幅上调此前对关税带来的3000亿美元收入的估计，但他拒绝透露更多细节，只 是表示关税收入将"大幅增长"。 贝森特还表示，美国经济可能重回1990年代"良好的低通胀成长"，但他将困扰部分经济领域的问题归咎 于利率过高，特别指出高利率拖累了房地产市场和信用卡负债较高的低收入家庭。 "真正的问题是，我们看到利率上升带来的一些分配方面的影响，尤其是在住房和信用卡债务高昂的低 收入家庭，"他说道。"我们看到了（资本支出）的大幅增长，一部分来自人工智能，一部分来自税收， 因此资本支出表现良好；但家庭和房屋建设却举步维艰。" 贝森特表示，特朗普一直在敦促美联储降低关键利率，这可能有助于促进房地产建设的繁荣或回升，并 将有助于在一到两年内促进房价下降。 此前，特朗普在吹捧关税所带来的收入时，曾提出了这些关税收入的几种用途：首先，用于偿还国家巨 额债务，同时，也可能给美国人民带来"红利"。 正因为特朗普曾经的"画饼"， ...

Core Viewpoint - S&P Global Ratings maintains the United States' long-term credit rating at AA+ and short-term rating at A-1+, citing the resilience of the U.S. credit system despite significant fiscal challenges posed by the recent "Big and Beautiful" tax expenditure bill [1][6]. Group 1: Tax Revenue and Fiscal Impact - The increase in effective tariff rates is expected to generate substantial tariff revenue, which will offset potential weaker fiscal outcomes related to recent U.S. fiscal legislation that includes both tax cuts and increased tariff revenues [2]. - In July, U.S. tariff revenue reached a record high of approximately $28 billion, with projections suggesting that annual tariff revenue could exceed 1% of U.S. GDP by 2025 [2]. Group 2: Debt Market Concerns - Investors have been worried about fiscal deficits and broader debt sustainability issues since the return of Trump to the White House, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rising above 5% in May due to concerns over tariffs and tax legislation [3]. - The "term premium" phenomenon indicates ongoing market concerns regarding the increasing interest payments on U.S. debt, with the 30-year Treasury yield remaining at 4.93% and the 10-year yield at 4.33% [4]. Group 3: Future Projections and Ratings Outlook - S&P's stable outlook suggests that while U.S. fiscal deficits are not expected to improve significantly, they also will not worsen, with net government debt projected to exceed 100% of GDP in the next three years [6]. - The average general government deficit is expected to be around 6% from 2025 to 2028, which is lower than the previous year's 7.5% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in U.S. tariff revenue, which reached a record high in July, and its implications for consumers and the economy [3][4]. Tariff Revenue Growth - In July, U.S. tariff revenue surged to $28 billion, a 273% increase year-over-year, bringing the total for the fiscal year to $142 billion [3]. - The current tariff revenue accounts for 3.1% of total federal revenue, with projections suggesting it could exceed 5% under current policies [3]. - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff rates" could generate an additional $1.3 trillion in revenue during its term, potentially reaching $2.8 trillion by 2034 [7]. Impact on Consumers - The average effective tariff rate for U.S. consumers has reached 18.6%, the highest since 1933, leading to a projected 1.8% increase in price levels this year, equating to a $2,400 reduction in annual income per household [8]. - Specific sectors, such as clothing and textiles, are experiencing significant price hikes, with footwear and apparel prices expected to rise by 39% and 37%, respectively [8]. Economic Implications - The increase in tariffs is expected to compress disposable income, reducing demand for imported goods, which could lead to a decline in tariff revenue over time [4][7]. - Despite the rise in tariff revenue, there are concerns that it may not be sufficient to address the growing national debt, which is nearing $37 trillion [11][12]. Future Projections - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that tariff revenue could reach $300 billion for the fiscal year 2025, but experts caution that this growth may have a ceiling due to its negative impact on economic growth [7][11]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a cumulative federal deficit of $21.8 trillion over the next decade, significantly outpacing expected tariff revenue [12].

Core Insights - The U.S. tariff revenue reached a historic high of $28 billion in July, marking a 273% increase year-over-year, with total revenue for the fiscal year reaching $142 billion [1] - The current tariff revenue accounts for 3.1% of total federal revenue, potentially rising to over 5% under existing policies, a level not seen since World War II [1] - The effective average tariff rate for U.S. consumers has hit 18.6%, the highest since 1933, leading to a projected short-term price increase of 1.8% for consumers [4] Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff rate" could generate an additional $1.3 trillion in revenue during its term, potentially reaching $2.8 trillion by 2034 [3] - Despite the increase in tariff revenue, there are concerns about its sustainability, as rising import prices may reduce disposable income and demand for imported goods [3][6] - The increase in tariffs has led to a significant burden on consumers, with estimates suggesting a reduction in household income by approximately $2,400 annually due to rising prices [4] Consumer Price Effects - The clothing and textile sectors are particularly affected, with prices for shoes and clothing expected to rise by 39% and 37% respectively in the short term [4] - A recent survey indicated that only 25% of importers are willing to absorb tariff costs, with many manufacturers planning to pass these costs onto consumers [5] - Goldman Sachs estimates that as of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of tariff-related price increases, but this is expected to shift, with consumers potentially bearing 67% of the costs by October [5] Fiscal Challenges - Despite the surge in tariff revenue, it remains insufficient to address the U.S. national debt, which is nearing $37 trillion [6] - The recently passed "Inflation Reduction Act" is projected to incur a cost of $3.4 trillion over the next decade, far exceeding anticipated tariff revenues [6] - The Congressional Budget Office forecasts a cumulative fiscal deficit of $21.8 trillion over the next decade, significantly overshadowing expected tariff revenue [6] Legal and Policy Challenges - The Trump administration's tariff policies are facing legal challenges, which could significantly reduce future tariff revenue and potentially require refunds of previously collected tariffs [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. tariff revenue reached a record high of $28 billion in July, marking a year-on-year increase of 273% [1] - For the first ten months of the fiscal year, the budget deficit stands at $1.63 trillion [1] - After adjusting for calendar differences, the budget deficit for July was $291 billion, which is a 10% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that total tariff revenue for the year 2025 could reach $300 billion, with the possibility of being even higher in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump expressed a desire to use tariff revenues to pay down national debt and indicated a willingness to "return" these funds to the American public [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the administration's approach to tariffs as a potential source of revenue for addressing national debt [1] - The intention to "return" tariff income to citizens suggests a populist strategy aimed at gaining public support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury will increase tariff revenue by $200 billion next month, as stated by President Trump [1] Group 1 - The increase in tariff revenue is part of the government's strategy to bolster financial resources [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department announced a significant increase in net borrowing for Q3 2025, projecting over $1 trillion, up from the previously expected $554 billion, aligning with Wall Street analysts' forecasts [1][3] - This announcement follows the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on July 4, which raised the total borrowing limit by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to issue new debt [3] - As of July 3, government cash reserves were only $313 billion, less than half of the amount from the previous year, highlighting the need for increased borrowing [3] Group 2 - The Treasury expects net borrowing for Q4 2025 to reach $590 billion, indicating ongoing pressure on the U.S. government's ability to service debt and maintain spending [3] - The upcoming financing announcement from the Treasury will detail the structure of this borrowing, including the timing and distribution of bond issuances, which is anticipated to significantly impact the bond market [3] - There is a general expectation that the Treasury will keep long-term bond issuance stable while increasing short-term Treasury bill sales, which may lead to greater volatility in short-term interest rates [3] Group 3 - The tax cuts implemented during the Trump administration have resulted in reduced federal tax revenues, creating long-term pressure on fiscal income [3] - Although recent increases in tariff revenues have somewhat alleviated this pressure, the sustainability of high tariff income remains uncertain due to changes in international trade agreements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Department is significantly increasing its borrowing forecast for the third quarter of 2023, expecting net borrowing to reach $1.007 trillion, a substantial increase of over 82% from the previous estimate of $554 billion due to the lifting of the debt ceiling [1][3]. Group 1: Borrowing Forecast and Debt Ceiling Impact - The Treasury's borrowing forecast for July to September has been raised by more than $450 billion, reflecting the acceleration of debt issuance following the increase of the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [1][3]. - The actual borrowing in the second quarter was only $65 billion, far below the anticipated $514 billion, primarily due to a lower-than-expected cash balance at the end of June [3][4]. - The cash balance at the end of June was reported at $457 billion, significantly lower than the previously assumed $850 billion, leading to a $393 billion shortfall that contributed to the increased borrowing needs [2][3]. Group 2: Cash Management and Future Projections - The Treasury aims to restore its cash balance to $850 billion by the end of September, primarily through the issuance of short-term debt [4][6]. - For the fourth quarter (October to December), the Treasury projects net borrowing of $590 billion, assuming the cash balance will recover to $850 billion [2][4]. - The Treasury's cash management strategy remains stable, with expectations that the debt issuance plan will align with previous quarterly refinancing levels [6]. Group 3: Revenue Changes and Economic Implications - Tariff revenues have increased significantly, with customs duties expected to rise further, although corporate tax revenues are projected to decline, partially offsetting tariff gains [5]. - In June, the U.S. recorded a fiscal surplus of over $27 billion, attributed mainly to customs tariff revenues, marking the first surplus for June since 2017 [5]. - The total tariff revenue for the fiscal year to date has reached $113 billion, an 86% increase year-over-year, setting a record for a single fiscal year [5].