据央视新闻，当地时间1月9日，美国最高法院表示，当天不会就特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权利法》（IEEPA）做出的全球对等关税作出裁 决。这意味着市场可能要继续等待下一个"意见日"。 据追风交易台消息，据美银Aditya Bhave团队9日发布的研报，尽管博彩市场认为关税被推翻的概率较大，但无论结果如何，政府都可能通过其他 法定授权来填补收入缺口，贸易政策对今年经济增长的支持基调并未改变。 若IEEPA关税被法院驳回，美银预计债券收益率将因财政赤字担忧而上升，而股市则因零售商利润率压力缓解及财政立场的放松而上涨。在此情 境下，行政当局极有可能迅速启用第122条、第232条及第301条等替代性法律条款，以试图挽回部分关税收入，这可能导致特定行业的关税结构出 现剧烈波动。 反之，若关税意外获得支持，市场反应将走向反面，即债券收益率和股市下行。值得注意的是，当前的关税收入已因进口替代和豁免措施而低于 预期，实际征收率仅为11.2%，显著低于理论测算的14.5%，这在一定程度上缓冲了裁决结果对实体经济的直接冲击。 在裁决落地的关键窗口期，投资者亟需理清从裁决概率、后续政策演变到资产价格波动的核心逻辑。以下是市场最关注 ...

转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 特朗普政府2025年上台后援引美国《国际紧急经济权力法》，以不经过国会批准、直接颁布 行政令的方式出台一系列加征关税措施。美国联邦最高法院此前宣布，将在本月9日就关税政 策合法性作出裁决。 此次最高法院的审理主要围绕两个核心议题展开：一是特朗普政府是否有权依据《国际紧急 经济权力法》（IEEPA）征收相关关税；二是若裁决该关税征收不合法，美国政府是否需要向 已缴纳关税的进口商退还税款。 美国财政部部长斯科特・贝森特此前在明尼阿波利斯的公开活动中强调："毫无疑问，我们有 能力维持大致相当水平的关税收入，但令人遗憾的是，若裁决不利，总统将失去利用关税获 取谈判筹码的灵活性，这对美国民众而言是种损失。"据悉，特朗普政府当初援引IEEPA征收 关税的部分原因，是将其作为阻止芬太尼流入美国的紧急措施。 值得关注的是，特朗普政府的关税政策实施至今，实际效果与部分分析师最初的预测存在差 异。数据显示，关税对美国通胀的影响有限，而贸易逆差却大幅下降——2025年10月美国贸 易失衡水平降至2009年金融危机结束以来的最低点。不过当时进口额的大幅下滑，与 ...

此外，2025年1月1日至12月31日，毛里塔尼亚关税收入达405亿乌吉亚，较预期增长66亿乌吉亚。据官 方统计，毛里塔尼亚2025年税收及关税收入较2024年增加103亿乌吉亚，关税收入为国家财政主要来 源。 2026年1月1日，毛里塔尼亚《消息报》报道称，毛里塔尼亚2025年税收收入达3529亿乌吉亚，首次超过 预期目标(3527亿乌吉亚)。据官方统计，毛里塔尼亚近三年税收征缴水平呈逐步上升态势。其中，2023 年税收目标为2629亿乌吉亚，实际税收收入2469亿乌吉亚，完成率93%；2024年税收目标为3279亿乌吉 亚，实际税收收入3188亿乌吉亚，完成率97%。 ...

Tariff revenue declined month-over-month for the first time since President Donald Trump imposed import taxes in April, according to Treasury Department data released on Wednesday. The government collected $30.75 billion in customs duties in November, down from $31.35 billion in October.Revenue Peaks Then FallsTariff collections rose to $15.6 billion in April after Trump's “Liberation Day” taxes and kept increasing each month through October.The November decline comes after the administration rolled back ta ...

与此同时，特朗普政府周三宣布，将对尼加拉瓜实施新一轮关税措施。由于调查认定尼加拉瓜存在"限 制美国商业活动"的人权问题，美国将依据贸易法301条款对该国进口商品加征关税，不属于中美洲自由 贸易协定(CAFTA-DR)范围的商品均将受到影响。 根据公告，美国将自2027年1月1日起对尼加拉瓜进口商品征收10%关税，并在2028年初提高至15%。这 将叠加今年早些时候已实施的18%基准关税，使得部分商品的实际税率显著上升。特朗普政府在调查期 间曾考虑将所有尼加拉瓜进口商品的关税统一提高至100%，但最终未采取这一极端措施。 智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部最新月度预算报告显示，美国11月经日历调整后的预算赤字为2780亿美 元，较上年同期小幅收窄16亿美元，降幅约6%。在当前财年最初两个月，美国累计赤字同比下降 16%，呈现一定改善势头。 报告显示，11月联邦政府收入同比大增14%，其中关税收入的增长最为突出。单月关税收入达到320亿 美元，高于10月的310亿美元，也显著高于此前三个月均值290亿美元。自特朗普政府将美国关税提升至 约一个世纪以来的最高水平后，关税已成为财政收入的重要支撑来源。 财政部长贝森特此前 ...

万神殿宏观经济学研究公司认为，中美关系是导致AETR低于预期的首要因素。与中国贸易活动的锐 减，导致税基萎缩。第二个因素是《美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定》合规程度超出预期。加墨两国企业目前 十分注重证明其产品符合原产地规则。这打乱了白宫基于以往较低合规水平所作的估算。第三个因素是 今年免税商品进口激增，主要包括个人电脑和用于人工智能的先进芯片。这类产品目前占美国总进口额 的9%，远高于2024年的4%。（陈欣） 【环球时报综合报道】美国《财富》杂志1日报道称，英国万神殿宏观经济学研究公司最近的分析显 示，美关税收入远远低于白宫最初的预期，实际收入比预期少了约1000亿美元。美国财长贝森特8月曾 预测，关税将带来"超5000亿美元的收入，甚至可能达到1万亿美元的规模"，但截至11月25日的数据显 示，关税和消费税收入仅为4000亿美元。这种缺口是由于平均有效关税率（AETR）远低于预期。目 前，AETR的估计值仅为12%，远低于今年春天普遍预期的约20%。 ...

【市场要闻速递】 美国关税收入正以创纪录的速度增长。今年10月净关税收入飙升至314亿美元，刷新历史新高。这一规 模是去年同期73亿美元的四倍以上。按这一增速计算，年度关税收入将首次超过3000亿美元。 摘要全球最大黄金ETF--SPDRGoldTrust持仓报告显示，12月1日黄金etf持有量为1045.43吨，较上一交易 日持平。周一(12月1日)截止收盘，现货黄金报4229.27美元/盎司，涨幅1.73%，日内最高上探至4230.87 美元... 全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓报告显示，12月1日黄金etf持有量为1050.01吨，较上一交易日 增加4.58吨。周一(12月1日)截止收盘，现货黄金报4230.33美元/盎司，涨幅0.03%，日内最高上探至 4264.28美元/盎司，最低触4205.33美元/盎司。 ...

Core Points - Trump's proposal aims to distribute $2,000 stimulus checks to American families funded by tariff revenues, intending to alleviate economic pressure on ordinary households [1][5] - The Senate opposes the plan, citing concerns over the already high national debt of $38 trillion and the lack of sufficient funds to support such large-scale spending [1][3][12] Group 1: Economic Implications - The plan is seen as a way to stimulate consumption and provide direct economic assistance, particularly for low- and middle-income families, while excluding high-income households [5][10] - There are concerns that distributing $2,000 checks could exacerbate inflation, potentially worsening the already strained economic situation [10][12] - Current tariff revenues are insufficient to fund the proposed $2,000 checks for 150 million Americans, raising questions about the feasibility of the plan [16] Group 2: Political Dynamics - The stimulus check proposal has become a focal point of political maneuvering between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats potentially using it to gain electoral support [14] - The White House is exploring options to bypass Congress to implement the plan directly, indicating a willingness to navigate around legislative hurdles [15] - The political landscape surrounding the proposal is complex, with potential repercussions for the Republican Party if the plan fails to materialize [14]

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government collected $31 billion in tariff revenues in October, marking the highest monthly collection since the implementation of steep import taxes during the Trump administration [2][7] - The steady collection of tariff revenues is being considered as a potential funding source for proposed $2,000 stimulus checks for low- and middle-income Americans [4][5] - The government reported a $284 billion deficit in October, highlighting ongoing concerns about national debt despite rising tariff revenues [9][10] Tariff Revenue Collection - October's tariff revenue of $31 billion follows collections of $30 billion in the previous two months, indicating a consistent revenue stream since the introduction of reciprocal tariffs in August [3][7] - The total tariff collections for the fiscal year ending September 2024 reached $195 billion, significantly higher than the $77 billion collected in the prior fiscal year [3][7] Economic Implications - Economists estimate that the proposed $2,000 checks could cost around $300 billion if distributed to adults earning less than $100,000 annually, while ongoing tariff collections could potentially exceed this cost at a rate of approximately $360 billion per year [8][9] - If tariff collections maintain their current pace, they could cover the costs of the proposed checks by June 2026 [9] Legislative Considerations - There is pushback from some legislators regarding the use of tariff revenues for stimulus checks, with suggestions that these funds should first be directed towards reducing the national debt [10] - The proposal for stimulus checks is still under discussion, with some members of Congress open to examining the idea while others express skepticism [10] Future Expectations - President Trump anticipates an increase in tariff collections in the coming months as importers deplete stockpiles accumulated before tariffs were enacted [11] - The administration is exploring legislative pathways to implement the proposed stimulus checks, despite the challenges posed by the current budget deficit [10][11]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department reported a record high tariff revenue of $33 billion in October, a year-on-year increase of 316%, contributing to total revenue of $404 billion for the month, setting a new October record [1] - Despite the increase in revenue, government spending remained significantly higher, totaling $689 billion in October, leading to a net deficit of $284 billion, the largest October deficit on record [2] - The adjusted deficit for October, accounting for timing factors, was approximately $180 billion, a decrease of 29% compared to October 2024 [2] Group 2 - The increase in tariffs is linked to previous U.S. tariff policies and heightened trade tensions, resulting in higher payments from importing companies [1] - Interest payments reached $104 billion in October, marking a new high for the month, raising concerns about the sustainability of federal debt levels [2] - Treasury officials noted that while increased tariffs boost revenue, they may also compress corporate profits, potentially leading to reduced corporate tax revenues in the long term [2]