以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师 于金潼 、中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁伟奥 5月22日，美国众议院以215比2 1 4票的微弱优势通过2 0 2 5财年预算 协调法案"The One , Bi g, Be a utif ul Bill "（大美丽法案）。不同机 构估计，该法案将在未来1 0年内使净赤字增加至少3万亿美元。这个 法案究竟会带来什么影响？ 大美丽法案包括什么？ 5月22日，美国众议院以215比214票的微弱优势通过2025财年预算协调法案"The One, Big, Beautiful Bill"（大美丽法案）。不同机构估计，该法案将在未来 10 年内使净赤字增加至少3 万亿美元。主要内容包括延长并永久化2017年《减税和就业法案》的主要条款，并添加额外的税收减免 政策；虽然在农业、教育、能源等领域削减了支出，但在国防和边境安全上扩大了支出，叠加减税政 策，总体上法案让美国政府赤字进一步上行。 其中外国资产税引人注意，法案第899条规定对美国认为 存在税收政策"歧 ...

Core Points - The Trump 2.0 tax reform plan has passed the House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 215 votes in favor and 214 against, but faces significant challenges in the Senate [1][2] - The bill includes major tax cuts, an increase in the debt ceiling, and the repeal of Biden's clean energy tax credits, indicating a shift in fiscal policy [4][5] - The legislation is expected to increase the national debt by $2.3 trillion and could lead to a significant budget deficit, raising concerns among market observers [15][16] Group 1: Legislative Process - The bill was passed in the House after numerous last-minute modifications aimed at uniting different factions within the Republican Party [2][6] - Senate Republicans have committed to making substantial changes to the bill before it can be voted on, indicating potential internal conflicts [7][8] - The bill's passage in the Senate may utilize the "budget reconciliation" process, allowing it to bypass the usual 60-vote requirement [7] Group 2: Key Provisions - The bill extends the corporate and individual tax cuts from Trump's first term, which were set to expire at the end of the year [5] - It raises the SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, benefiting taxpayers in high-tax states [5][10] - The legislation includes provisions for increased military spending and immigration enforcement, alongside cuts to safety net programs [5] Group 3: Political Implications - The bill is seen as a significant victory for Trump, reinforcing his influence over the Republican Party and fulfilling key campaign promises [9][10] - Democratic leaders have criticized the bill as detrimental to working families, framing it as a "robbery from the poor to give to the rich" [14][15] - The political fallout from the bill could impact the upcoming midterm elections, with Democrats vowing to hold Republicans accountable [14][15] Group 4: Economic Impact - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the bill will reduce resources for low-income families by 4% while increasing resources for high-income families by 2% [15] - Concerns about the bill's impact on the national debt have already influenced market sentiment, leading to declines in major stock indices prior to the vote [17] - The Federal Budget Accountability Committee has expressed alarm over the potential for the bill to exacerbate the national debt by over $3 trillion [16]