智通财经APP获悉，美国金融板块迎来最新财报季，摩根士丹利发布研报展望。大摩认为，在未来 12 个月内，鉴于通胀和劳动力市场动态预计将影响信贷 表现和消费者信心，保持防御性布局仍属必要。在整个消费金融行业，大摩注意到年初以来目标股价稳步上调，但盈利预期基本未变。该行也承认，本报告 中其也有类似行为，即便目标价和预期仍较为保守。大摩的基本预期是，其所覆盖的股票在2026年将获得长期平均水平的回报，但存在适度的下行不对称风 险。 值得注意的是，在报告发布之际，上周五，特朗普提议要求发卡机构将信用卡利率限制在10%以内，为期一年，预计将于1月20日实施。由于缺乏更多细 节，且该提议能否以及如何执行存在巨大不确定性，大摩预计金融板块短期内波动性将加剧。该行认为，如果该提议得以实施，如此大幅度的降息将从根本 上重塑信用卡行业，大幅降低发卡机构的盈利能力，并限制消费者获得信贷的机会。 目前，大摩认为这是一项高风险、低概率事件，且可能面临重大的法律挑战。因此，该行并未改变对该板块的基本展望，但强调整个行业的不确定性增加， 这可能会对估值倍数构成压力。 2025年第四季度，美国消费金融行业面临十字路口。尽管通胀居高不下，劳动 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a broad decline with 1,196 stocks rising and 4,173 stocks falling, indicating a general bearish trend despite some active sectors like gold and aquaculture showing strength [4] - The trading volume in the two markets decreased significantly to 5 trillion yuan, down 10.39%, reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors [5] Capital Flow - There was a net outflow of funds from major players, while retail investors showed a net inflow, indicating a divergence in investment behavior [6] - Institutional investors are adopting a defensive strategy, focusing on sectors like banking, communication equipment, electricity, and food and beverage, while moving funds from high-valuation sectors to low-valuation ones [6] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment is cautious, with 75.85% of investors adopting a "watch and wait" approach, indicating a preference for selective stock picking rather than broad market exposure [7] - The sentiment towards the next trading day is mixed, with 55.35% of investors expecting a rise and 44.65% expecting a decline [12]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) announced the acquisition of Ximalaya for approximately 20.5 billion RMB (1.26 billion USD), which includes 12.6 billion RMB in cash and up to 5.1986% of TME's shares [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition was communicated internally at Ximalaya, where founder Yu Jianjun expressed emotional distress despite the financial gain, indicating a sense of loss for the company's future [2][4]. - Yu Jianjun holds 10.61% of Ximalaya through Xima Holdings Limited, translating to over 2 billion RMB in cash-out from the acquisition [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Ximalaya has achieved profitability for nine consecutive months as of 2023, with an average monthly active user base of 303 million, capturing 25% of the online audio revenue market [3][10]. - Revenue figures from 2021 to 2023 show modest growth: 5.857 billion RMB in 2021, 6.061 billion RMB in 2022, and 6.463 billion RMB in 2023 [7][9]. - Adjusted net profits improved from -718 million RMB in 2021 to 2.24 billion RMB in 2023, largely due to cost-cutting measures [8]. Group 3: Revenue Challenges - Ximalaya's revenue model includes subscriptions, advertising, and live streaming, but faces challenges in monetization, with a low paid user rate of 5.3% compared to competitors [10][12]. - The company has seen a decline in membership subscription growth from 18.9% in 2021 to 8.4% in 2023, with paid content revenue experiencing negative growth for two consecutive years [11]. Group 4: Market Context - The broader content platform industry faces similar monetization challenges, with competitors like iQIYI and Zhihu also struggling to achieve consistent profitability [12][14]. - Ximalaya's valuation has significantly decreased from 4.3 billion USD in 2021 to approximately 2.85 billion USD at the time of the acquisition [15][16]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is viewed as a defensive move for Tencent Music, which is experiencing a decline in monthly active users [18][19]. - The integration of Ximalaya's long audio content with Tencent's music services presents both opportunities and challenges, particularly in aligning different content production models [22][23]. - The acquisition may provide Ximalaya with a capital exit strategy while Tencent Music seeks to enhance its market presence in the audio sector [26].