每经AI快讯，9月5日，海南自贸区板块盘中拉升，海汽集团涨超5%，钧达股份涨近3%，海南高速、海 南华铁、海南发展、海南矿业等跟涨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **commodity supercycle** and the impact of **anti-involution policies** on the **midstream materials and manufacturing industries**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: Anti-involution policies may lead to a revaluation of midstream materials and manufacturing industries, similar to the utility price increase trend observed in 2023-2024. Focus on industries with negative ROC minus VAC indicators, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment** [1][2][5]. 2. **Drivers of Commodity Supercycle**: The commodity supercycle is driven by **de-globalization** and **de-dollarization**. De-globalization restricts factor flow, raising inflation, while de-dollarization leads to increased commodity pricing. Historical parallels are drawn to the 1970s commodity bull market due to similar conditions [3][9]. 3. **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The Renminbi's exchange rate is highly correlated with market trends. In the medium term, the price gap between China and the US supports Renminbi appreciation, although short-term risks from US debt issuance could pressure the A-share market [1][6]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to follow the **Barbell Strategy**, allocating 80% of investments to safe assets like **gold, banks, resources, and utilities**, and 20% to sectors with potential catalysts such as **domestic computing power, robotics, and Hainan Free Trade Zone** [1][7]. 5. **US Treasury Account and Interest Rates**: The US Treasury General Account (TGA) needs to be replenished quickly, which may lead to a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to near or above 5%. This could impact dollar liquidity and put pressure on the A-share market, particularly growth-style stocks [1][8]. 6. **Historical Context of Anti-Involution**: The current anti-involution policy is seen as part of a broader strategy to address economic deflation, with historical precedents in 1999 and 2015-2016. The focus should also be on demand-side policies [5][11]. 7. **Measuring Industry Involution**: The difference between ROIC and WACC serves as a measure of industry involution. Negative values indicate industries that are not creating value, with many midstream manufacturing and materials sectors currently in this state [12]. 8. **Recent Performance of Involved Industries**: Industries with high involution levels, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment**, have shown significant recent performance improvements, indicating potential investment opportunities [14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Price Trends**: From July 2022 to the present, gold and silver prices have increased by 100%, while platinum has risen by over 40%. Scarce metals have also seen significant price increases, suggesting a likely upward trend in commodity pricing [10]. 2. **Sector-Specific Insights**: Certain commodities like **alumina and live pigs** have seen price increases not due to anti-involution but rather as part of the broader commodity supercycle, indicating the complexity of market dynamics [15][16]. 3. **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: In the absence of a fundamental reversal in globalization trends, a suggested asset allocation strategy includes 80% in safe assets and 20% in technology and AI sectors, providing a balanced approach to risk management [17].

Core Views - The market index has reached a critical level at 3600 points, indicating a significant divide in market sentiment and trend [2][11] - Short-term fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking and external disturbances, but the medium-term upward trend remains intact supported by policy backing and industrial upgrades [3][12] - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "slow bull" pattern in the medium term, with abundant structural opportunities requiring enhanced stock selection and timing skills [11][12] Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3605.73 points, up 23.43 points, with a trading volume of 18,447 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [6][11] - The market showed mixed performance with sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone and energy metals experiencing significant gains, while precious metals and banking sectors faced declines [7][8][11] Sector Analysis - The Hainan Free Trade Zone saw a surge due to the upcoming full island "closure" on December 18, which will significantly increase the proportion of zero-tariff imports [7] - The energy metals sector rose sharply following government announcements of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [8] - The securities sector has shown resilience, with expectations of improved performance driven by increased trading volumes and favorable economic conditions [9] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on avoiding high-flying stocks and selectively reducing positions in sectors that have seen substantial gains, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower concept [3][10] - Medium-term investments should target growth sectors with high elasticity, including AI infrastructure, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robotics, driven by both policy and technological advancements [3][12]

Market Performance - On July 23, A-shares experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.01% and the Shenzhen Component down by 0.37% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.8 trillion, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,000 stocks fell, while more than 1,200 stocks rose [1] Sector Performance - The super hydropower concept stocks remained strong, with companies like China Power Construction hitting the daily limit [1] - Financial stocks, including brokerages and insurance, performed well, with Guosheng Jin控 hitting the daily limit [1] - Steel stocks saw a pullback after an initial rise, with Liugang Co. achieving six consecutive daily limits [1] - The Hainan and ultra-high voltage sectors experienced significant declines [1] Index Movements - The hydropower construction index rose by 2.64%, while the Hainan Free Trade Port index fell by 4.46% [2] - The cement manufacturing index decreased by 5.07%, indicating a downward trend in that sector [2] Corporate Actions - As of July 22, 329 A-share companies announced plans for mid-term profit distribution for 2025, indicating a trend towards frequent and high dividend payouts [3] - The increasing frequency of dividends is becoming mainstream, with high dividend yield companies gaining favor among investors [3] Policy and Future Outlook - Industry insiders expect that with ongoing policy guidance, the willingness of listed companies to enhance both quality and returns will continue to grow [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission is actively engaging with enterprises to discuss the development of state-owned and private enterprises, emphasizing long-term growth and collaboration [4]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has strengthened after breaking through 3500, reaching 3608.58, a 0.75% increase as of July 23 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index reported a 0.31% increase, reaching 11134.07, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.72% to 2327.48 [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 115.95 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The hydropower concept, securities, and airport shipping sectors led the gains, while the Hainan Free Trade Zone saw the largest declines [3] - In the hydropower sector, BiKang Technology surged by 23.41%, with several companies like China Electric Power and Huaxin Cement also experiencing significant gains [3] - The securities sector was led by Guosheng Financial Holdings, which hit the daily limit, while other firms like Guoxin Securities and Hatou Co. saw increases of over 6% [3] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start operations on December 18, 2025, with plans to expand zero-tariff goods and improve the investment environment [3] - The Ministry of Finance plans to deepen tax reforms to support the Free Trade Port, including adjustments to corporate and personal income tax policies and optimizing duty-free shopping policies [4] Future Outlook - CITIC Securities highlighted that the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with an estimated investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to drive significant demand growth in construction and building materials [4] - The cement demand in Tibet is projected to increase by 25-30% by 2026 due to the hydropower project, supported by the establishment of the new state-owned enterprise, Yajiang Group [4] - Tianfeng Securities indicated that the long-term recovery trend for bank stock valuations remains intact, with expectations of improved net interest margins and non-interest income [5]