1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index led to selling pressure on gold and silver, but after two days of adjustment, the impact on the market gradually decreased, and gold and silver stabilized after the correction. The weakening of the US labor market and the potential interference with the Fed's independence are the main drivers of the rise in precious metals [3][4][34] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustment from January 8 - 14 reduced the gold weight from about 20.4% to 14.9% and the silver weight from about 9.6% to 3.94%, resulting in a selling pressure of about $6 - 7 billion for each. The impact on the silver market was more significant. After the adjustment, the market gradually stabilized, and geopolitical events increased the demand for limited metal resources [3] - US employment data in December showed a further decline in labor market momentum. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, possibly due to some unemployed leaving the labor market. The revised employment data increased market concerns [4] - **Strategy Recommendation** - For single - side trading, buy on dips near the 5 - day moving average. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [5] 3.2 Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Market Trading Mainline** - The focus has shifted from tariff games to interest rate cut games. Trump has continuously pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, and the independence of the Fed has become a market focus [16][34] - **US Economy** - GDP growth in the second quarter was 3.8%, higher than expected, but a detailed analysis showed that the growth was somewhat deceptive. Consumption and investment were weak, and retail data was also affected by tariffs [42][44] - The US employment market cooled unexpectedly. In December, non - farm employment increased by 50,000, lower than expected, and the annual employment growth was the weakest since the pandemic [53] - Inflation rebounded moderately, and the Fed's target focus shifted. Inflation data was also affected by the government shutdown [56] - The Fed stopped shrinking its balance sheet. Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction might end soon, marking a shift from "active tightening" to "neutral waiting" [62] 3.3 Chapter 3: Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking - **Gold** - **Global Supply and Demand** - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total gold supply was 3,717 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. In the third quarter, the total supply reached a record high. Investment demand dominated, with an increase in ETF holdings and strong demand for gold bars and coins. Central bank gold purchases remained high, while jewelry consumption declined [65][66] - **Domestic Supply and Demand** - In the first three quarters of 2025, China produced 392.931 tons of gold, a 3.60% year - on - year increase, and consumed 682.730 tons, a 7.95% year - on - year decrease. Gold jewelry consumption decreased, while demand for gold bars, coins, and industrial use increased [70] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases** - Since 2022, central banks, especially those of developing countries, have been actively buying gold. Reasons vary by country, such as optimizing foreign exchange reserves and hedging risks [77] - **Silver** - **World Supply and Demand Balance** - The supply of silver is relatively stable due to its associated production. Demand is mainly affected by industrial use, especially photovoltaic use. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2% to 32,055 tons, and the demand - supply gap is expected to narrow [79] - **Inventory** - LBMA inventory was affected by various factors, including the Trump administration's potential tariff policy and the "short squeeze" in the London market. The overall global silver inventory has rebounded from the bottom in 2024 [85] - **ETF Demand and Supply - Demand Observation** - LBMA inventory has about 27,000 tons of silver, but only about 7,000 tons can be freely circulated. The overseas silver lease rate has fluctuated, and the high rate reflects the supply - demand contradiction [87]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant divergence, with major indices turning negative in the afternoon after an initial rise, particularly the ChiNext index which fell by 1% after a 1% gain earlier [1] - The North Exchange 50 index saw a sharp increase, rising over 7% at one point [1] Company Performance - Moer Technology, known as the "first domestic GPU stock," surged by 28%, with a cumulative increase of over 725% from its issue price of 114.28 yuan, reaching a market capitalization exceeding 400 billion yuan [2] - Oracle's Q2 FY2026 results showed total revenue of $16.06 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, but below market expectations of $16.21 billion [14][16] - Oracle's net profit was $6.14 billion, a 95% increase year-over-year, partly due to a one-time gain of $2.7 billion from the sale of Ampere [16] - Oracle's free cash flow was reported at -$10 billion, marking the worst record in the company's history, and its total debt exceeded $100 billion, the highest among investment-grade tech companies [14][16] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time has led to significant market reactions, with internal divisions within the Fed becoming apparent [3][5] - The Fed's updated economic growth expectations and lowered inflation guidance signal a cautious but positive outlook, despite concerns over potential recession [6][9] - The Fed's plan to purchase $40 billion in short-term bonds over the next 30 days is aimed at maintaining market liquidity, exceeding market expectations [10][12] Market Sentiment - Concerns over AI-related investments are prevalent, with Oracle's aggressive spending strategy raising fears of potential losses among investors [17][19] - The market is currently grappling with the dichotomy of wanting to capitalize on transformative AI technologies while fearing the risks associated with potential bubbles [18][22] - The sentiment surrounding AI investments is mixed, with some experts suggesting that the current environment does not yet reflect a bubble due to insufficient capacity [20]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "interest rate game" between Trump and the Federal Reserve is creating significant market dynamics, with Trump pushing for immediate rate cuts while Powell and other Fed officials maintain a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to observe inflation trends before making any decisions [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Position - Powell stated that the impact of tariff policies on prices has not fully materialized, and lowering rates now would be akin to "driving with blindfolds," indicating a high level of risk [3]. - The latest PCE inflation rate is at 2.1%, with core PCE at 2.6%, still above the 2% target, suggesting that the Fed is not ready to cut rates until clearer inflation signals emerge [4]. - Employment data shows mixed signals, with initial jobless claims decreasing but continuing claims reaching a new high since 2021, indicating a slowing labor market without immediate alarm [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low at 18.6%, rising to 60% by September, reflecting the Fed's internal divisions and the complexity of the current economic environment [5]. - Discrepancies in forecasts from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley highlight the uncertainty, with Goldman predicting two rate cuts while Morgan Stanley suggests only one or even no cuts [5]. Investment Implications - Increased volatility in U.S. equities is anticipated, particularly in the tech sector, due to the Fed's cautious approach and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [6]. - The performance of the U.S. dollar and gold is under scrutiny, as the Fed's high-rate stance typically supports the dollar, yet recent trends show a decline in the dollar index alongside a strengthening gold market [6]. - The potential impact on A-shares due to external uncertainties could influence capital flows, but domestic policy directions remain clear, with focus areas including military asset consolidation and digital currency trials [6].

Group 1 - The precious metals market in April exhibited three main characteristics: first, COMEX gold reached a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce before retreating, with policy expectations causing increased volatility, resulting in a monthly fluctuation exceeding 12% [1][2] - Second, silver lagged due to its industrial properties, with the gold-silver ratio climbing to 105.26, a 20-year high, although expectations for the peak season of photovoltaic installations hinted at an inventory turning point [1][2] - Third, the market's trading logic shifted from "stagflation hedging" to "interest rate speculation," with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy path becoming a core variable for price fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - Looking ahead to May, the precious metals market may enter a "data validation period," with three core variables expected to dominate price trends: first, the Federal Reserve's May meeting, where despite expectations to maintain interest rates, any indication of liquidity easing could strengthen gold's anti-stagflation narrative [3] - Second, the "gray rhino" effect of global geopolitical risks continues to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Lastly, the realization of the peak season for photovoltaic installations is crucial, with China's first-quarter photovoltaic capacity additions increasing by 38% year-on-year, although declining component export prices may delay silver inventory replenishment [3] - The company maintains a strategy of "anchoring trends with gold and capturing elasticity with silver," focusing on support levels for COMEX gold around $3150 to $3250 per ounce and stronger bullish support for Shanghai gold futures near 760 yuan per gram [3]