彭博指数调整 金银高位震荡 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 目录 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 ◼【策略推荐】 2 GALAXY FUTURES 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 彭博指数调整 金银高位震荡 ◼【综合分析】 彭博商品指数调整：周内，对市场情绪和金银走势影响最为显著的因素便是彭博商品指数调整带来的抛压，此次的指数再平衡于1月8日至14日进行 ，将黄金权重从约20.4%下调至14.9%，白银权重从约9.6%降至3.94%，我们测算，黄金白银各自面临着60-70亿美元左右的抛压，这个资金规模约 是Comex黄金市场未平仓合约总量的3%、是Comex白银市场未平仓合约总量的11%。其中，由于白银的市场规模相对黄金更小，且抛售比例相对黄 金更 ...

今日盘面不是一般的冰火两重天！ 午后，A股三大指数午后全线翻绿，早盘一度涨1%创业板指收跌1%，北证50指数突然直线拉升，一度涨超7%。 消息面上，一方面是北交所和中证指数公司对北证指数成分股定期调整于2025年12月15日正式生效，另一方面是据说北交所要降低打新门槛。 继"寒王"之后，"摩王"横空出世，有着"国产GPU第一股"之称的摩尔线程今日再度飙涨28%，较发行价（114.28元）累计涨幅超725%，市值突破4000亿 元，换手率连日两日超50%。 摩尔线程被视为"中国版英伟达"，据说重磅发布新一代GPU架构，此前发布公告预计2025年全年归属净利润亏损7.3亿元至11.68亿元。 今天这个冰火两重天的盘面令人不解，降息咋还能跌成这样？ 1 美联储超市场预期鸽派 美联储如市场所料连续第三次降息25个基点，不过是自2019年来首次遭三票反对，美联储的内部分歧前所未有的大。 12月点阵图显示2026年和2027年各再降息一次，和9月点阵图一致，虽然整体中性利率未变，但情况显示美联储内部出现大分裂，甚至可能是37年以来的 最大裂痕。 当鲍威尔任期明年5月到期，内部又出现如此大的分裂，达成降息的难度进一步提高， ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "interest rate game" between Trump and the Federal Reserve is creating significant market dynamics, with Trump pushing for immediate rate cuts while Powell and other Fed officials maintain a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to observe inflation trends before making any decisions [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Position - Powell stated that the impact of tariff policies on prices has not fully materialized, and lowering rates now would be akin to "driving with blindfolds," indicating a high level of risk [3]. - The latest PCE inflation rate is at 2.1%, with core PCE at 2.6%, still above the 2% target, suggesting that the Fed is not ready to cut rates until clearer inflation signals emerge [4]. - Employment data shows mixed signals, with initial jobless claims decreasing but continuing claims reaching a new high since 2021, indicating a slowing labor market without immediate alarm [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low at 18.6%, rising to 60% by September, reflecting the Fed's internal divisions and the complexity of the current economic environment [5]. - Discrepancies in forecasts from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley highlight the uncertainty, with Goldman predicting two rate cuts while Morgan Stanley suggests only one or even no cuts [5]. Investment Implications - Increased volatility in U.S. equities is anticipated, particularly in the tech sector, due to the Fed's cautious approach and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [6]. - The performance of the U.S. dollar and gold is under scrutiny, as the Fed's high-rate stance typically supports the dollar, yet recent trends show a decline in the dollar index alongside a strengthening gold market [6]. - The potential impact on A-shares due to external uncertainties could influence capital flows, but domestic policy directions remain clear, with focus areas including military asset consolidation and digital currency trials [6].

Group 1 - The precious metals market in April exhibited three main characteristics: first, COMEX gold reached a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce before retreating, with policy expectations causing increased volatility, resulting in a monthly fluctuation exceeding 12% [1][2] - Second, silver lagged due to its industrial properties, with the gold-silver ratio climbing to 105.26, a 20-year high, although expectations for the peak season of photovoltaic installations hinted at an inventory turning point [1][2] - Third, the market's trading logic shifted from "stagflation hedging" to "interest rate speculation," with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy path becoming a core variable for price fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - Looking ahead to May, the precious metals market may enter a "data validation period," with three core variables expected to dominate price trends: first, the Federal Reserve's May meeting, where despite expectations to maintain interest rates, any indication of liquidity easing could strengthen gold's anti-stagflation narrative [3] - Second, the "gray rhino" effect of global geopolitical risks continues to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Lastly, the realization of the peak season for photovoltaic installations is crucial, with China's first-quarter photovoltaic capacity additions increasing by 38% year-on-year, although declining component export prices may delay silver inventory replenishment [3] - The company maintains a strategy of "anchoring trends with gold and capturing elasticity with silver," focusing on support levels for COMEX gold around $3150 to $3250 per ounce and stronger bullish support for Shanghai gold futures near 760 yuan per gram [3]