Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "interest rate game" between Trump and the Federal Reserve is creating significant market dynamics, with Trump pushing for immediate rate cuts while Powell and other Fed officials maintain a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to observe inflation trends before making any decisions [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Position - Powell stated that the impact of tariff policies on prices has not fully materialized, and lowering rates now would be akin to "driving with blindfolds," indicating a high level of risk [3]. - The latest PCE inflation rate is at 2.1%, with core PCE at 2.6%, still above the 2% target, suggesting that the Fed is not ready to cut rates until clearer inflation signals emerge [4]. - Employment data shows mixed signals, with initial jobless claims decreasing but continuing claims reaching a new high since 2021, indicating a slowing labor market without immediate alarm [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low at 18.6%, rising to 60% by September, reflecting the Fed's internal divisions and the complexity of the current economic environment [5]. - Discrepancies in forecasts from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley highlight the uncertainty, with Goldman predicting two rate cuts while Morgan Stanley suggests only one or even no cuts [5]. Investment Implications - Increased volatility in U.S. equities is anticipated, particularly in the tech sector, due to the Fed's cautious approach and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [6]. - The performance of the U.S. dollar and gold is under scrutiny, as the Fed's high-rate stance typically supports the dollar, yet recent trends show a decline in the dollar index alongside a strengthening gold market [6]. - The potential impact on A-shares due to external uncertainties could influence capital flows, but domestic policy directions remain clear, with focus areas including military asset consolidation and digital currency trials [6].

Group 1 - The precious metals market in April exhibited three main characteristics: first, COMEX gold reached a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce before retreating, with policy expectations causing increased volatility, resulting in a monthly fluctuation exceeding 12% [1][2] - Second, silver lagged due to its industrial properties, with the gold-silver ratio climbing to 105.26, a 20-year high, although expectations for the peak season of photovoltaic installations hinted at an inventory turning point [1][2] - Third, the market's trading logic shifted from "stagflation hedging" to "interest rate speculation," with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy path becoming a core variable for price fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - Looking ahead to May, the precious metals market may enter a "data validation period," with three core variables expected to dominate price trends: first, the Federal Reserve's May meeting, where despite expectations to maintain interest rates, any indication of liquidity easing could strengthen gold's anti-stagflation narrative [3] - Second, the "gray rhino" effect of global geopolitical risks continues to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Lastly, the realization of the peak season for photovoltaic installations is crucial, with China's first-quarter photovoltaic capacity additions increasing by 38% year-on-year, although declining component export prices may delay silver inventory replenishment [3] - The company maintains a strategy of "anchoring trends with gold and capturing elasticity with silver," focusing on support levels for COMEX gold around $3150 to $3250 per ounce and stronger bullish support for Shanghai gold futures near 760 yuan per gram [3]