沪银主力合约

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瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold main contract fluctuated during the session, while the Shanghai Silver contract weakened significantly. The US Department of Commerce's tariff - increasing policy has caused the precious metals market to experience a correction due to the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs. However, the tariffs have no substantial impact on silver, and the probability of silver being additionally taxed is extremely low. The current correction may be mainly driven by market sentiment. The S&P's confirmation of the US sovereign credit rating has supported the US dollar, and the dollar index has continued its rebound from a low level. The market is currently focusing on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Fed Chairman Powell further releases hawkish signals, the dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to trade within a range, and mid - term interest - rate cuts provide strong support for the bottom of gold prices. The negotiation between Russia and the US may affect the gold price. If the negotiation makes substantial progress, it may further relieve the downward pressure on the gold price; if it fails to meet expectations, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards gold in the short term, and pay attention to short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver as it approaches the oversold range. The recommended trading range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9100 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 772.68 yuan/gram, down 2.38 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9042 yuan/kilogram, down 145 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 191,474 lots, up 39 lots; the main - contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 318,678 lots, down 23,822 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 160,754 lots, down 1365 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 114,342 lots, down 5142 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse - receipt quantity of gold was 36,582 kilograms, up 249 kilograms; the warehouse - receipt quantity of silver was 1,140,199 kilograms, down 9247 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 768.7 yuan/gram, down 4.2 yuan, and the basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 3.98 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's silver spot price was 9026 yuan/kilogram, down 128 yuan, and the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 16 yuan/kilogram, down 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings were 962.21 tons, down 3.15 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15,339.66 tons, down 16.94 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 229,485 contracts, down 7565 contracts; the silver CFTC non - commercial net positions were 44,268 contracts, down 6390 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Volumes**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces, and the annual global total demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.17%, down 0.53%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.6%, up 0.12% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 17.36%, up 0.33% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% tax rate. The new list covers a wide range of products, including wind turbines and their components, mobile cranes, railway vehicles, furniture, compressors, and pump equipment [2]. - US President Trump said the US would help Ukraine defend but would not send ground troops, and reiterated that Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO [2]. - The US and Japan plan to conduct in - depth consultations on implementing a $550 billion investment in the US. The investment involves important fields such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel, and shipbuilding, and a mechanism to verify national interests will be established [2]. - S&P confirmed the US "AA+/A - 1+" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, reflecting the expected continuous resilience of the US economy [2]. - The European Central Bank President Lagarde said the trade agreement between the US and the EU was slightly higher than expected but far from the severe scenario of US tariffs exceeding 20% [2].
瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250818
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 09:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The multi - empty game in the precious metals market has intensified. If subsequent negotiations achieve substantial progress, it may further relieve the callback pressure on gold prices. If the results are below expectations, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying [2]. - The Fed's independence is continuously hindered. Considering Trump's fiscal stimulus plan and the risk of inflation rebounding, the feasibility of a rate cut exceeding 25bps is low. The subsequent PCE data may become the indicator for the Fed's rate cut [2]. - In the long - term, factors such as the opening of the Fed's rate - cut window, the long - standing US twin deficits, and the decline in the US dollar's credit still provide strong support for gold prices. In the short - term, gold prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for gold in the short - term and try to go long on silver at low prices with a light position. Pay attention to risk control. The focus range for the SHFE AU2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE AG2510 contract is 9100 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE gold main contract is 777.66 yuan/gram, up 1.86 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE silver main contract is 9258 yuan/kilogram, up 54 yuan [2]. - The position of the gold main contract is 194,004 lots, down 3,651 lots; the position of the silver main contract is 350,742 lots, up 4,614 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the gold main contract is 164,475 lots, up 2,060 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the silver main contract is 116,454 lots, down 313 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 36,345 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,138,426 kilograms, down 3,129 kilograms [2]. - The SMM gold spot price is 773.4 yuan/gram, up 1 yuan; the SMM silver spot price is 9213 yuan/kilogram, up 44 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SHFE gold main contract is - 4.26 yuan/gram, down 0.86 yuan; the basis of the SHFE silver main contract is - 45 yuan/kilogram, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 965.36 tons, up 4.01 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 15,071.31 tons, unchanged [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 229,485 contracts, down 7,565 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 44,268 contracts, down 6,390 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.17%, up 0.29%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11%, up 0.1% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 16.03%, down 0.91%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 16.03%, down 0.91% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump plans to announce additional tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors in the next two weeks, with semiconductor tariffs possibly far exceeding the previously mentioned 100% [2]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is hesitant about rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and tariff uncertainties. Milan, nominated by Trump as a Fed governor, said inflation is "under control" [2]. - Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on August 18. If successful, a tri - party meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will be arranged [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 15.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 84.6%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 42.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 51.5% [2]. 3.6 Market Situation - The main contracts of gold and silver in the Shanghai market fluctuated upward during the session. The prices of gold and silver in London maintained a narrow - range oscillation, slightly recovering from last Friday's decline [2]. - The results of the US - Russia weekend negotiations were generally optimistic. Although no substantial results were achieved, the positive statements after the meeting provided room for further negotiations and potential cease - fire. The market's risk - aversion sentiment quickly cooled, causing a significant drop in gold prices. Silver prices remained relatively strong due to their industrial attributes [2]. - The stronger - than - expected US wholesale and retail data further reduced the probability of a rate cut after the PPI data. If Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23 is "balanced", the downward space for interest rates may be limited [2]. - The interest rate futures show that the rate - cut expectation has dropped from the previous high of 98% to the current 84.6%. However, the market still expects the Fed to start the rate - cut window in September, which provides support for gold prices [2].
瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250813
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 08:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: The dollar index is in a weak and volatile pattern, which is positive for gold prices. However, if the US - Russia negotiation makes substantial progress, it may put downward pressure on gold prices. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Medium - term: Factors such as the inflation rebound risk due to tariffs, the expectation of the Fed's loose policy, the damage to the US dollar's credit, and the resilient demand for central bank gold purchases still provide strong support. The bullish logic remains intact, pushing up the central price of gold. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips. The target range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9200 - 9400 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 777.72 yuan/gram, up 1.68 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9300 yuan/kilogram, up 113 yuan. The positions of the main contracts and the net positions of the top 20 have different changes, and the gold warehouse receipts remain unchanged while the silver warehouse receipts decrease by 16,111 kilograms [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 773.7 yuan/gram, down 0.3 yuan; the silver spot price is 9200 yuan/kilogram, up 66 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 4.02 yuan/gram, down 1.98 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 100 yuan/kilogram, down 47 yuan [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold ETF holdings remain unchanged, and silver ETF holdings increase by 40.96 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in CFTC have different changes. The quarterly total supply and demand of gold both increase by about 54.8 tons. The annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces, and the global annual demand is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. - **Option Market**: The historical and implied volatilities of gold options have different changes, with the 20 - day historical volatility of gold up 0.1% and the 40 - day historical volatility down 0.18% [2]. 3.2 Industry News - US tariff revenue reached a new high in July, but the budget deficit still expanded. The tariff revenue in July soared to $28 billion, a year - on - year increase of 273%, and the budget deficit reached $291 billion, a 10% increase year - on - year [2]. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again and threatened to sue Fed Chairman Powell. US Treasury Secretary called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September [2]. - Affected by the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, the US dollar index weakened, the Shanghai gold price recovered, and the silver price continued to rebound strongly. The year - on - year growth rate of US CPI in July was lower than expected [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 6.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 93.4% [2].
美联储官员放鸽,关税乌龙扰动逐步出清
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 08:43
贵金属日报 | 2025-08-12 美联储官员放鸽 关税乌龙扰动逐步出清 策略摘要 美联储人事变动方面,特朗普团队扩大美联储主席候选人的范围。特朗普政府考虑将美联储理事鲍曼、美联储副 主席杰斐逊、达拉斯联储主席洛根也纳入候选人之列,白宫有望于今年秋季宣布美联储主席人选。候选人鲍曼对 于货币政策旗帜较为鲜明,其认为近期就业增长数据大幅向下修正,突显出美联储应该降息;劳动力市场的明显 疲软超过了未来通胀上升的风险;而随着经济增长放缓,就业市场的疲软信号将会被进一步放大,开始逐步将适 度限制性的政策立场转向中性是合适的。对于降息节奏,鲍曼表示预计在今年剩下的三次议息会议上均会降息; 其发言进一步巩固了贵金属的宽松预期主线。关税方面,特朗普发帖表示不会对黄金征收关税,纽约金明显回调; 但前期已有消息称白宫将会对黄金关税做出澄清,市场已经提前price in;整体看贵金属短期交易宽松的主线逻辑 并无变化。后续关注美国CPI等经济数据。 期货行情与成交量: 2025-08-11,沪金主力合约开于787.02元/克,收于779.48元/克,较前一交易日收盘变动-1.06%。当日成交量为41087 手,持仓量为129725 ...
上期所原油期货夜盘收跌1.43%,报497.1元/桶
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-07 21:46
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in crude oil futures while gold and silver futures experienced slight increases [1] Group 2 - Crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down by 1.43%, settling at 497.1 yuan per barrel [1] - The main gold contract rose by 0.26%, closing at 785 yuan per gram [1] - The main silver contract increased by 0.43%, closing at 9241 yuan per kilogram [1]
上期所原油期货夜盘收跌1.23%,报498元/桶
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-06 21:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a decline in crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a drop of 1.23% to 498 yuan per barrel [1] - The main gold futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also experienced a decrease of 0.29%, settling at 782 yuan per gram [1] - In contrast, the main silver futures contract saw an increase of 0.22%, reaching 9180 yuan per kilogram [1]
上期所原油期货夜盘收跌1.28%,报510.2元/桶
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-04 21:50
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of commodity futures, specifically that the Shanghai crude oil futures fell by 1.28% to 510.2 yuan per barrel [1] - The Shanghai gold main contract increased by 0.52%, reaching 785 yuan per gram [1] - The Shanghai silver main contract rose by 0.73%, closing at 9067 yuan per kilogram [1]
贵金属日报:贝森特称年底将提名新的美联储主席-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:30
贝森特称年底将提名新的美联储主席 策略摘要 昨日,特朗普签署行政命令,修改对某些国家的对等关税税率,行政令附件一中列出的国家将受到其中规定的关 税的约束,未列入附件一的国家将被征收10%的关税;将加拿大关税从25%提高到35%,更高的关税将于2025年8 月1日生效。为逃避加拿大35%的关税而转运的货物将被征收40%的转运关税。此外,美国财长贝森特表示,预计 年底前宣布美联储提名,美联储理事会将有两席空缺。特朗普在谈及鲍威尔时也称他是个糟糕的美联储主席,任 命鲍威尔为美联储主席是个错误。 期货行情与成交量: 2025-07-31,沪金主力合约开于771.30元/克,收于770.28元/克,较前一交易日收盘变动-0.45%。当日成交量为41087 手,持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于772.50元/克,收于770.92元/克,较昨日午后收盘上涨0.12%。 2025-07-31,沪银主力合约开于9145.00元/千克,收于9008.00元/千克,较前一交易日收盘变动-2.00%。当日成交量 为1100640手,持仓量为371110手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于8,930元/千克,收于8,935元/ ...
【夜盘主力合约收盘】8月1日讯,截至2:30收盘,沪金主力合约收涨0.12%,报771元/克,沪银主力合约收跌1.37%,报8935元/千克,SC原油主力合约收跌0.71%,报528元/桶。
news flash· 2025-07-31 18:36
金十数据8月1日讯,截至2:30收盘,沪金主力合约收涨0.12%,报771元/克,沪银主力合约收跌1.37%, 报8935元/千克,SC原油主力合约收跌0.71%,报528元/桶。 夜盘主力合约收盘 ...
议息会议前美债收益率出现回落迹象
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 05:05
Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Views - Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, U.S. Treasury yields showed signs of decline. The market is waiting for the meeting's outcome. If the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates or if Fed Chair Powell is removed, it will be beneficial for the gold price. The silver price has reached a record high, but the photovoltaic sector's weakness may suppress it in the future [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Conditions - **Futures**: On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed at 771.44 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the previous trading day. The Shanghai silver futures main contract closed at 9,195 yuan/kg, down 0.18% from the previous trading day [2] - **U.S. Treasury Bonds**: On July 29, 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield was 4.42%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-2 year spread was 0.48%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.2 Position and Volume Changes - **Last Trading Day's Volume**: The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 275,105 lots, down 16.66% from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts was 738,850 lots, down 52.79% from the previous trading day [4] - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 956.23 tons from the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings increased by 14.13 tons to 15,173.92 tons [5] 3.3 Arbitrage Tracking - **Spot-Futures Spread**: On July 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -1.96 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -680.01 yuan/kg [6] - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 83.90, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Shanghai Gold Exchange**: On July 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold was 37,834 kg, up 9.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 461,672 kg, down 27.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,762 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,900 kg [7]