Investment Rating - The report suggests that the current sector has investment value, recommending a focus on operators with potential for increased capacity utilization, leading indicators in power generation per ton and heating ratio, lower reliance on subsidies, and higher cash dividend capabilities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the waste incineration sector is entering a phase of positive free cash flow, with significant increases in dividend ratios expected in the coming years. The average dividend ratio is projected to rise from 35% in 2023 to 47% in 2024, driven by a 307% year-on-year increase in free cash flow [3][23][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration with IDC (Internet Data Center) operators, which is expected to optimize cash flow curves and business models for waste incineration operators. This partnership is anticipated to create a win-win scenario for all parties involved [3][54]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The waste incineration industry has achieved a 100% harmless treatment rate for domestic waste by the end of 2023, with a significant shift towards incineration over landfill methods [12][13]. - The fixed cost structure of waste incineration plants is characterized by a high proportion of depreciation and amortization costs, approximately 42.8%, leading to stable cash outflows [15][18]. Section 2: Financial Performance - The report notes that the waste incineration sector is expected to see a substantial increase in free cash flow, with the first year of positive free cash flow occurring in 2023. The average dividend payout ratio is projected to increase significantly in 2024 [3][23][30]. - The cash flow structure is stable, with variable costs linked to fuel prices being only 5.5% of total costs, while the majority consists of labor and auxiliary costs [15][18]. Section 3: Risks and Challenges - The report identifies several risks, including delayed subsidy payments, lower-than-expected capacity utilization for newly commissioned plants, and potential issues with the commercial model leading to accounts receivable delays [2][26]. - The impact of subsidy reductions on project internal rates of return (IRR) is highlighted, with a decrease of 0.1 CNY/KWh potentially lowering IRR from 7.9% to 6.2% [29][34]. Section 4: Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional operators in high electricity price areas (e.g., Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) that have lower reliance on subsidies and higher cash dividend capabilities [1]. - Collaboration with IDC is seen as a strategic move to enhance cash flow and stabilize revenue streams, particularly in light of increasing energy demands from data centers [54][56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the waste incineration industry [9]. Core Insights - Recent attention has been drawn to waste incineration projects supplying power to IDC (Internet Data Centers), highlighting the potential for these projects to effectively reduce energy consumption and improve cash flow for B-end enterprises [3][16]. - The transition from energy consumption dual control to carbon emission dual control is expected to enhance the demand for renewable energy, particularly from industrial enterprises, benefiting the waste incineration sector [7][36]. - The report emphasizes the feasibility of direct power supply from waste incineration projects to B-end enterprises, which could lead to valuation recovery for the industry [3][8]. Summary by Sections Energy Consumption Control and Approval Process - The tightening of energy consumption policies necessitates energy efficiency assessments for fixed asset investment projects, with significant variations in approval timelines across different regions [5][22]. - IDC projects are specifically required to undergo energy efficiency assessments due to their high energy consumption levels, which often exceed 10,000 tons of standard coal annually [6][25]. Expansion of Green Energy Applications - The application of green energy from waste incineration is anticipated to expand beyond IDC to B-end enterprises, driven by increasing renewable energy demands and regulatory shifts towards mandatory green electricity consumption [7][38]. - The report notes that the carbon market's expansion, now covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions, will further enhance the demand for green certificates from waste incineration companies [7][8]. Challenges and Opportunities in Direct Power Supply - The current limitations on direct power supply to B-end enterprises stem from unresolved pricing mechanisms, but pilot projects in certain regions are beginning to explore direct green electricity supply [8][36]. - The report suggests that overcoming these challenges could lead to a new trend in direct green electricity supply for industrial enterprises, benefiting all stakeholders involved [8][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the waste incineration sector, including Hanlan Environment, Weiming Environmental, and others, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated cash flow improvements and valuation recovery [8].