以下文章来源于文化纵横 ，作者钟飞腾 文化纵横 . 倡导文化重建，共同思想未来，发掘不一样的深度阅读。 2025年5月10日，中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦正式启动，美国财长贝森特作为美方牵头人与中方展开对话。中美会谈引发全球关注，更尤其吸引 东南亚的目光。在中美博弈加剧的背景下，东南亚作为产业转移和经贸合作重点区域，其不确定性更加凸显。越南更是积极参与对美关税谈判，在三 日前（5月7日）作为首批谈判国宣布"开局良好"，取得了"积极的初步结果"。而近日爆发的印巴冲突可能进一步推动东南亚在产业链中的"避险"角 色，进一步分化区域经济整合。 本文回顾了战后东南亚的发展之路。在不同的国际政治格局下，东南亚曾分别通过雁行模式和增加值贸易参与国际经贸循环。随着地缘政治重新回 归，东南亚的贸易模式正进入第三种贸易形态，越南、马来西亚同时承接中美产业转移，但面临战略站队风险。美越关系的升级，关键在于美国承诺 将帮助越南发展半导体产业及稀土产业，这关系到中美竞争的核心领域。此外，马来西亚凭借成熟的电子制造业和物流优势，正在成为中美半导体竞 争的最大获益者之一。 作者指出，面对东南亚贸易模式和结构的变化，中国凭借超大规模的市场， ...

Group 1 - Southeast Asia's importance has increased significantly in the context of US-China rivalry, with ASEAN now being the fifth-largest economy globally, growing from 5.0% of the world economy in 2001 to 6.4% in 2023 [1] - ASEAN countries have also become a crucial player in global trade, with their share of world goods exports rising from 6.2% in 2001 to 7.6% in 2023, nearly equivalent to the combined exports of Africa and Latin America [1] - The economic growth rate of Southeast Asian countries has outpaced the global average, with an annual growth rate of 5.0% compared to the global average of 3.0% since the 21st century [1][2] Group 2 - The geopolitical competition between major powers has raised questions about whether Southeast Asia's development space is shrinking or expanding, particularly in the context of China's relationship with Southeast Asia amid US pressure [2] - The rise of East Asia has altered the economic landscape, with countries like Japan and the "Four Asian Tigers" achieving significant GDP growth relative to the US [3][4] - The "flying geese" model describes a dynamic division of labor in East Asia, where higher-income countries transfer outdated industries to lower-income countries, fostering regional economic development [5][6] Group 3 - The emergence of value-added trade has transformed Southeast Asia's trade patterns, with countries increasingly focusing on specific stages of production rather than complete goods [7][8] - Vietnam has become a prime example of a Southeast Asian country benefiting from value chain trade, with its foreign value-added exports rising significantly since joining the WTO in 2007 [13][20] - The US-China trade tensions have led to a shift in Southeast Asia's trade dynamics, with countries like Vietnam enhancing their trade relationships with the US while maintaining ties with China [20][24] Group 4 - The geopolitical landscape has influenced Southeast Asia's trade relationships, with a notable increase in dependence on exports to the US, which rose from 8.5% to 14.8% of ASEAN's exports between 2018 and 2022 [17][24] - The region's internal market development has been impacted by geopolitical tensions, as evidenced by the decline in intra-ASEAN trade from 24.0% to 21.3% of total exports [24] - The ongoing US-China rivalry presents both opportunities and challenges for Southeast Asian countries, as they navigate their positions between the two powers while seeking to enhance their economic development [20][22]