Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving trade dynamics in Southeast Asia amid the intensifying geopolitical competition between the US and China, highlighting the region's strategic importance and the implications for its economic development [3][4][5]. Group 1: Southeast Asia's Economic Growth - Southeast Asia has emerged as a significant player in the global economy, with ASEAN being the fifth-largest economy by purchasing power parity (PPP), increasing its share of the global economy from 5.0% in 2001 to 6.4% in 2023 [4][5]. - The region's economic growth has outpaced the global average, with Southeast Asian countries averaging a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the global average of 3.0% since the 21st century [4][5]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Patterns - ASEAN's share of global goods exports has risen from 6.2% in 2001 to 7.6% in 2023, indicating its growing importance in international trade [5]. - The article notes a shift in trade patterns, with Southeast Asian countries participating in both the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) [5][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - The US is actively supporting economically viable Southeast Asian nations to replace China's role in the regional production chain, reflecting a strategic shift in the geopolitical landscape [4][30]. - The article emphasizes that the geopolitical competition between the US and China is reshaping Southeast Asia's trade relationships, with countries like Vietnam benefiting from the ongoing tensions [25][29]. Group 4: Vietnam's Strategic Position - Vietnam has rapidly integrated into the regional production network since joining the WTO in 2007, with its exports increasingly comprising foreign value added, reaching over 48% in 2022 [18][20]. - The US has committed to assisting Vietnam in developing its semiconductor and rare earth industries, which are critical areas in the US-China competition [25][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that Southeast Asia is entering a new phase of trade dynamics, necessitating a new theoretical framework to understand the evolving economic relationships in the context of great power competition [28][29]. - Despite the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions, Southeast Asia's internal market development remains crucial, with China maintaining a significant role in the region's economic landscape [30][31].

Group 1 - Southeast Asia's importance has increased significantly in the context of US-China rivalry, with ASEAN now being the fifth-largest economy globally, growing from 5.0% of the world economy in 2001 to 6.4% in 2023 [1] - ASEAN countries have also become a crucial player in global trade, with their share of world goods exports rising from 6.2% in 2001 to 7.6% in 2023, nearly equivalent to the combined exports of Africa and Latin America [1] - The economic growth rate of Southeast Asian countries has outpaced the global average, with an annual growth rate of 5.0% compared to the global average of 3.0% since the 21st century [1][2] Group 2 - The geopolitical competition between major powers has raised questions about whether Southeast Asia's development space is shrinking or expanding, particularly in the context of China's relationship with Southeast Asia amid US pressure [2] - The rise of East Asia has altered the economic landscape, with countries like Japan and the "Four Asian Tigers" achieving significant GDP growth relative to the US [3][4] - The "flying geese" model describes a dynamic division of labor in East Asia, where higher-income countries transfer outdated industries to lower-income countries, fostering regional economic development [5][6] Group 3 - The emergence of value-added trade has transformed Southeast Asia's trade patterns, with countries increasingly focusing on specific stages of production rather than complete goods [7][8] - Vietnam has become a prime example of a Southeast Asian country benefiting from value chain trade, with its foreign value-added exports rising significantly since joining the WTO in 2007 [13][20] - The US-China trade tensions have led to a shift in Southeast Asia's trade dynamics, with countries like Vietnam enhancing their trade relationships with the US while maintaining ties with China [20][24] Group 4 - The geopolitical landscape has influenced Southeast Asia's trade relationships, with a notable increase in dependence on exports to the US, which rose from 8.5% to 14.8% of ASEAN's exports between 2018 and 2022 [17][24] - The region's internal market development has been impacted by geopolitical tensions, as evidenced by the decline in intra-ASEAN trade from 24.0% to 21.3% of total exports [24] - The ongoing US-China rivalry presents both opportunities and challenges for Southeast Asian countries, as they navigate their positions between the two powers while seeking to enhance their economic development [20][22]