郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 集运指数（欧线）：基本面延续弱势，10 空单持 有，逢高酌情加空 2025 年 8 月 7 日 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2508 | 2,071.3 | -1.18% | 418 | 3,700 | -246 | 0.11 | 0.18 | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,420.1 | 0.64% | 48,555 | 54,361 | 2,253 | 0.89 | 0.59 | | | EC2512 | 1,751.4 | 4.12% | 10,672 | 9,581 | 1,373 | 1.11 | 0.34 | | | | 本期 | | 2025/8/4 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market fundamentals of the container shipping index (European line) are expected to face further pressure, with a likely pattern of reduced supply and demand in September. The trading logic for the main 2510 contract remains to go short on rallies. The impact of the anti - involution policy on the container shipping industry is currently limited, and attention should be paid to the influence of Sino - US tariff negotiations on the macro sentiment of EC. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 2510 contract [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - The container shipping index (European line) showed weak operation yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1425.1 points, down 4.66% and reduced positions by 3056 lots; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1692.3 points, down 3.59% and reduced positions by 45 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2121.6 points, down 0.66% and reduced positions by 724 lots [7]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rates - The PA alliance increased the price - cut intensity, with the market freight rate center in the 2nd adjustment of August falling to the range of $3100 - 3200/FEU. Different alliances and shipping companies also adjusted their freight rates, such as the Gemini alliance, Maersk, and the 20A alliance. The PA alliance's weekly price - cut range expanded to $400/FEU, and the MSG 33 - week shipping schedule was adjusted down by $300 to $3340/FEU [8]. 3.3 Fundamentals (Supply - side) - In the supply - side, the AEU3 canceled sailings in week 34. Cosco & OOCL made ship - axis adjustments. Maersk's overtime ship MAERSK EMDEN confirmed its port calls. August's weekly capacity was slightly revised up from 32.4 million TEU to 32.7 million TEU, with extremely high capacity pressure in week 34. September's weekly capacity was revised down from 32.1 to 31.8 million TEU, a - 3% month - on - month decrease compared to August, a + 5.7% increase compared to July, and on par with April's capacity level [9]. 3.4 Market Trends and Strategies - From a monthly perspective, September is likely to see a pattern of reduced supply and demand, but the decline in the currently - counted capacity may be less than that in demand. The trading logic for the main 2510 contract is to go short on rallies. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 10 contract [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the Container Freight Index (European Line) fluctuated weakly. The main 2510 contract closed at 1,460.0 points, down 1.77%, with an increase of 32 lots in positions; the secondary main 2512 contract closed at 1,735.0 points, up 0.74%, with a decrease of 468 lots in positions; the 10 - 12 spread widened to -275 points. The near - month 2508 contract closed at 2,111.0 points, down 3.55% [8]. - In terms of spot freight rates, different shipping alliances have different pricing strategies in early August. Maersk aims to maximize the overall ship efficiency by adjusting the peak - season surcharge (PSS) and the spot price. It is necessary to observe whether ONE will further lower the FAK price and whether MSC will make dynamic adjustments [9]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the August and September capacities are slightly revised upwards. On the demand side, the cargo volume in early August is expected to remain resilient, and the inflection point of market cargo volume is likely to appear in mid - to - late August. In the monthly - level comparison, September is likely to see a double - decline in supply and demand, and the fundamentals are expected to be further pressured. For the main 2510 contract, the trading logic of the market fundamentals remains to short on rallies. The anti - involution policy currently has limited impact on the container shipping industry. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 10 contract and consider reducing positions and taking profits for the 10 - 12 reverse spread [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2508 closed at 2,111.0, down 3.55%, with a trading volume of 3,024 and an open interest of 5,926 (a decrease of 1,443); EC2510 closed at 1,460.0, down 1.77%, with a trading volume of 41,659 and an open interest of 50,726 (an increase of 32); EC2512 closed at 1,735.0, up 0.74%, with a trading volume of 4,024 and an open interest of 8,131 (a decrease of 468) [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 2,316.56 points, down 3.5% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,284.01 points, down 1.4% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $2,090/TEU, up 0.5% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $2,067/FEU, down 3.5% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different carriers have different prices for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in August. For example, Maersk's 33 - week Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price is $2,860/FEU, and MSC's early - August price is $3,640/FEU [1][9]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.65, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.18 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - Weekly and monthly average weekly capacities of the China - Europe base route are provided. In August, the capacity is slightly revised upwards to 324,000 TEU/week, and in September, it is revised upwards to 321,000 TEU/week [4][10]. 3.3 Macro News - China and the US will continue to promote the scheduled extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures [6]. - Federal Reserve Governor Kugler will be absent from this week's interest - rate meeting due to personal reasons, and the number of voting members is temporarily reduced to 11 [6]. - Hamas officials and the Israeli Prime Minister have different statements regarding the cease - fire negotiations in Gaza [6]. - Iran's top military commander said that Iran does not trust any promises from the US or Israel and is fully prepared to deal with future aggression [7].