3.渠道点评：零食折扣店：折扣店仍是增长最快的渠道，在渠道扩张的推动下，全年销售额贡献占比有 望达到25-30%，长期目标占比为30-35%。渠道盈利能力/增速排名：传统经销商是盈利能力最强的渠 道，其次是折扣店、KA渠道和电商渠道。折扣店渠道的营业利润率与公司整体水平大致相当，趋势稳 定但竞争激烈;折扣店渴望与卫龙这样具备强大知名度和高产品周转率的品牌合作。这些渠道合作伙伴 的快速门店扩张通过产品布局创新而为卫龙带来了可观的增长机会。 4.原材料成本点评：供需失衡导致去年魔芋精粉的价格居高不下。然而公司乐观地认为，随着种植面积 扩大，价格将在明年(2026-2027年)恢复正常。 5.国际扩张：管理层重申了全年约人民币1亿元的销售目标;公司仍在其他东南亚国家寻找合作伙伴，并 看到魔芋和海带产品在7-11和莲花超市(Lotus's)等东南亚主要零售商的上架铺货已取得进展 高盛发布研报称，对卫龙美味(09985)的评级为"买入"，12个月目标价为13.9港元，基于19倍2027年预期 市盈率并以8.6%的股权成本贴现回2026年计算得出。尽管零食行业竞争激烈，但该行预计公司仍能实 现增长，这得益于：1)先发优势 ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" [4][6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 7.159 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.02%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 46 million yuan, compared to a profit of 180 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.732 billion yuan, down 29.34% year-on-year, with a net loss of 36 million yuan, contrasting with a profit of 62 million yuan in the same quarter of 2024 [1][2] - The company is undergoing adjustments across various business lines due to intensified competition and the impact of the Spring Festival timing [2] Revenue Analysis - In Q1 2025, online and offline channels generated revenues of 901 million yuan and 1.038 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 30.00% and 28.83% year-on-year [2] - The total number of stores decreased by 123 from the end of 2024, with 2,581 stores remaining as of the end of Q1 2025 [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 26.14%, with a decline in Q1 2025 to 24.64%, down 1.78 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was -0.64%, indicating continued pressure on profitability [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been significantly reduced to 20 million yuan and 122 million yuan, respectively, representing decreases of 93.7% and 66.5% from previous estimates [4] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.05 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 237 times based on the current stock price [4][11]

"零食第一股"来伊份迎来上市以来最大规模的业绩下滑。4月28日晚间，来伊份发布2024年年度报告及 2025年一季度报告。年报显示，来伊份2024年全年营收为33.70亿元，同比下降15.25%，归母净利润 为-7526万元，较上年同期由盈转亏。公司一季度营业收入为10.48亿元，同比下降1.23%；归母净利润 为1243.57万元，同比下降79.72%。 横向对比万辰集团、三只松鼠、良品铺子等休闲零食上市企业的2024年年报可以发现，来伊份的营收、 利润及增速均远落后于同行，其中以量贩零食为主营业态的万辰集团、鸣鸣很忙增速领先行业。另一边 来伊份的利润率却高达40%，对比万辰集团2024年毛利率为10.76%，近期提交招股书的鸣鸣很忙2022- 2024年期间的毛利率稳定在7.5%～7.6%区间。 截至4月29日收盘，来伊份股价为12.86元/股，总市值43.07亿元，较最高值已蒸发约137亿元。 主营业务下滑16.52%，各类产品营收全线下滑 来伊份为施永雷和郁瑞芬夫妇2001年在上海创立。2016年，来伊份正式挂牌上海证券交易所主板，被称 为"中国零食第一股"。 但上市后不久，来伊份便遭遇了增长瓶颈。2 ...