Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has issued a "Buy" rating for Weidong Meishi (09985) with a 12-month target price of HKD 13.9, based on a 19x expected P/E ratio for 2027 and an 8.6% cost of equity discounted back to 2026 [1] Group 1: Company Growth Potential - Despite fierce competition in the snack industry, the company is expected to achieve growth due to its first-mover advantage, national coverage, and resources to adapt to increasing competition [1] - Smaller competitors are likely to be more affected by rising costs and price pressures due to their scale disadvantages [1] - The company's strong brand image and insights into konjac products and the market provide potential for multiple enhancements in consumer penetration, channel expansion, SKU, and flavor variety [1] Group 2: Financial Guidance - The company reaffirms its annual guidance with a sales growth of 15-20% year-on-year, a gross margin of 46-48%, and a net profit margin of 17-20% [1] - The company anticipates higher sales, general, and administrative expense ratios in the second half of the year due to increased online and offline marketing activities aimed at supporting konjac and kelp product categories [1] - The long-term goals include maintaining a gross margin above 45% and a net profit margin exceeding 15% [1] Group 3: Sales Trends and Channel Insights - In Q3 2025, despite a high base, the company's performance remains robust, with monthly sales of the konjac sesame product reaching RMB 60-70 million in August and September [2] - Discount stores are the fastest-growing channel, expected to contribute 25-30% of annual sales, with a long-term target of 30-35% [2] - Traditional distributors are the most profitable channel, followed by discount stores, KA channels, and e-commerce [2] Group 4: Raw Material Cost Outlook - Supply-demand imbalance has kept konjac powder prices high, but the company is optimistic that prices will normalize in 2026-2027 as planting areas expand [2] Group 5: International Expansion - The management has reiterated a sales target of approximately RMB 100 million for the year and is actively seeking partners in other Southeast Asian countries [3] - Progress has been made in getting konjac and kelp products listed in major Southeast Asian retailers such as 7-11 and Lotus's [3]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" [4][6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 7.159 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.02%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 46 million yuan, compared to a profit of 180 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.732 billion yuan, down 29.34% year-on-year, with a net loss of 36 million yuan, contrasting with a profit of 62 million yuan in the same quarter of 2024 [1][2] - The company is undergoing adjustments across various business lines due to intensified competition and the impact of the Spring Festival timing [2] Revenue Analysis - In Q1 2025, online and offline channels generated revenues of 901 million yuan and 1.038 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 30.00% and 28.83% year-on-year [2] - The total number of stores decreased by 123 from the end of 2024, with 2,581 stores remaining as of the end of Q1 2025 [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 26.14%, with a decline in Q1 2025 to 24.64%, down 1.78 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was -0.64%, indicating continued pressure on profitability [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been significantly reduced to 20 million yuan and 122 million yuan, respectively, representing decreases of 93.7% and 66.5% from previous estimates [4] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.05 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 237 times based on the current stock price [4][11]

Core Insights - The company "Laiyifen," known as the "first snack stock," has experienced its largest decline in performance since its listing, with a 15.25% drop in revenue for 2024, totaling 3.37 billion yuan, and a net loss of 75.26 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss [1][4][14] - In the first quarter of 2025, Laiyifen reported a revenue of 1.048 billion yuan, down 1.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.44 million yuan, a significant decline of 79.72% [1][4] - Compared to peers like Wancheng Group and Three Squirrels, Laiyifen's revenue and profit growth rates are significantly lagging, despite maintaining a high gross margin of 40% [1][4][14] Revenue and Profit Decline - Laiyifen's main business revenue fell by 16.52% to 3.21 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 38.81%, down 1.94 percentage points from the previous year [4][6] - The company has seen a continuous decline in revenue since its listing, with 2023 marking the first revenue drop post-IPO, recording 3.977 billion yuan, a 9.25% decrease [4][14] Regional Performance - In East China, Laiyifen's revenue was 2.93 billion yuan, down 14.96%, with a gross margin of 40.76%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points [5][6] - North China saw a slight revenue increase of 3.63%, while South China experienced a significant decline of 22.46% [6] Product Performance - All product categories, including nuts, meat products, and candies, reported revenue declines, with the largest drop in meat products and aquatic products [6][7] - The revenue from nuts and beans was 756.86 million yuan, down 8.11%, while meat products generated 985.54 million yuan, down 17.82% [7] Sales Model Analysis - Retail revenue from stores decreased by 21.39% to 2.02 billion yuan, while e-commerce revenue saw the largest decline of 35.54% [8][9] - The company closed 600 stores in 2024, including 425 direct-operated and 175 franchised stores, indicating a strategic shift in its retail approach [10][11] Market Position and Competition - Laiyifen's market position has weakened compared to competitors, with significant revenue growth reported by Wancheng Group (323.29 billion yuan, up 247.86%) and Three Squirrels (106.22 billion yuan, up 49.3%) [13][14] - The company has opted not to engage in price wars, maintaining a high gross margin compared to competitors, which has led to criticism regarding its pricing strategy [16] Employee and Shareholder Dynamics - The company has reduced its workforce by 39.23% since 2021, with 4,590 employees reported in 2024 [17] - Shareholder issues persist, with the controlling shareholder facing penalties for illegal share reductions, raising concerns about governance [18][19]