证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 思摩尔国际（06969.HK） 优于大市 2025 年中期业绩点评： 雾化主业如期修复，HNB 与雾化医疗蓄力长期增长 公司是全球雾化龙头，雾化基本盘业务企稳回升，HNB 商业化落地有望带来 二次增长。考虑到公司股份激励费用支出与自主品牌处于全球投入期，下调 盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润 12.4/18.2/25.6 亿元（前值 为 15.2/20.0/25.2 亿元），同比分别为-4.9%/+47.0%/+40.8%；摊薄 EPS=0.20/0.29/0.41 元，对应 PE=98/67/48 倍，维持"优于大市"评级。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 11,177 | 11,799 | 13,352 | 15,158 | 18,479 | | (+/-%) | -8.1% | 5.6% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 21.9% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in the first half of the year, driven by regulatory enforcement in the US and Europe, while net profit declined due to increased non-cash share-based payments and rising operational costs [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 6.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, while net profit was 492 million yuan, down 28.0% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit was 737 million yuan, a slight decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, aligning with previous forecasts [1] - The gross profit margin for the first half was 37.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Segments - The To B business segment generated revenue of 4.939 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in Europe and other markets [2] - The To C business segment reported revenue of 1.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with notable performance from the "Lan Zhi" brand in China [2] - The HNB (Heat-not-Burn) business is progressing as planned, with product launches in Serbia and Sendai, Japan, expected to expand further [3] Cost and Expenses - The increase in share-based payments contributed to a rise in management expense ratios, while R&D expense ratios decreased [3] - Distribution and sales expenses rose due to increased marketing efforts for the company's own brands and global expansion [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued recovery in its core vaporization business, supported by improving regulatory frameworks in the US and Europe [1][2] - The introduction of new HNB products is expected to open a second growth curve for the company [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Profit forecasts have been adjusted downward due to the impact of share-based payments, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.007 billion, 1.830 billion, and 2.559 billion yuan respectively [3] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 27.00 HKD, based on a 71 times PE ratio for 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 25.00, up from the previous target of HKD 16.25 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a revenue increase of 18% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with projected revenue of HKD 60.13 billion. However, net profit is forecasted to decline by 21% to 35% year-on-year, primarily due to increased non-cash share payments and rising operational costs associated with expanding its proprietary brand business [1][4]. - The regulatory environment in the US and Europe is tightening, which is anticipated to drive demand for compliant products, positively impacting the company's core vaporization business [2][4]. - The new HNB product, Glo Hilo, has shown promising performance in the Japanese market, indicating significant growth potential for the company as it expands its product offerings [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of HKD 13.23 billion, HKD 21.40 billion, and HKD 27.62 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.21, HKD 0.35, and HKD 0.45 [4][10]. Market and Regulatory Environment - The report highlights that the enforcement of regulations by the FDA in the US and similar measures in Europe are expected to restore sales of compliant vapor products, benefiting the company's market position [2][4]. Product Development and Innovation - The Glo Hilo product, launched in Japan, features enhanced heating efficiency and a variety of flavor options, which are expected to validate the product's market potential and drive future growth [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a PE ratio of 65 for 2026, reflecting the company's strong growth prospects and competitive advantages in the HNB market, leading to a target price increase [4][10].