机构：中金公司 研究员：徐卓楠/柳政甫/邹煜莹 风险 1H25 业绩符合我们预期 公司公布1H25 业绩，收入实现60.1 亿元，同增18.3%，归母净利润实现5 亿元，同降30.8%，调整股权 激励费用后归母净利润7.4 亿元，同降2.1%，业绩符合我们预期。分季度看，1Q/2Q25 净利润实现2/3 亿元，分别同比-40.7%/+12.7%。此外，公司派发中期股息每股20 港仙，对应分红率225.1%（1H24 为 38.7%），股东回报力度加大。 发展趋势 1、品类切换下欧洲电子雾化快增，美国市场有望随执法趋严迎来改善。公司1H25 ToB 收入同增19.5% 至47.39 亿元，其中，1）欧洲及其他：收入同增38%至27.3 亿元，随英国、法国等一次性禁令落地，合 规企业以优质产品力及渠道优势高效承接用户转化，公司伴随客户实现快速成长；2）美国：收入同增 1.5%至18.9 亿元，我们判断随美国执法趋严，公司Q2 起美国市场经营或已迎来改善，后续有望持续向 好；3）国内：收入同降6.1%至1.2 亿元。 2、APV 欧洲延续快增，雾化美容商业化加速。1H25 ToC 收入同增14.1%至12.74 亿 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, aligning with forecast values and exceeding early-year high single-digit expectations [1] - The net profit was 492 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.0%, which is the midpoint of the forecast range, attributed to increased management expenses and legal compliance costs [1] - Adjusted net profit was 737 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, also within the forecast range [1] - The company's gross margin for H1 was 37.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 12.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The self-owned brand business generated revenue of 1.274 billion yuan in H1, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with European revenue growing by 15.1% [1] - The To B business revenue was 4.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with European revenue rising by 38.0% [2] - The HNB market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company collaborating with British American Tobacco on the HNB product gloHilo, which received positive feedback during trials in Japan [2] Group 3: Market Outlook and Projections - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts due to the impact of incentive amortization and other expenses, projecting net profits of 1.33 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected P/E ratios of 100, 60, and 46 for the respective years [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a recovery in the European electronic vaporization market, and the HNB (Heat-not-Burn) segment is expected to release profit elasticity [8] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 6.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, aligning with forecast values and exceeding initial high single-digit expectations [8] - The HNB market is in a rapid growth phase, with the company collaborating with British American Tobacco on new products, indicating potential for future profit contributions [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 11.177 billion yuan - 2024A: 11.799 billion yuan - 2025E: 13.722 billion yuan - 2026E: 16.166 billion yuan - 2027E: 18.395 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at (8.06)%, 5.56%, 16.30%, 17.81%, and 13.79% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2023A: 1.645 billion yuan - 2024A: 1.303 billion yuan - 2025E: 1.329 billion yuan - 2026E: 2.217 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.891 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at (34.47)%, (20.78)%, 1.96%, 66.84%, and 30.40% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) is projected as follows: - 2023A: 0.27 yuan - 2024A: 0.21 yuan - 2025E: 0.21 yuan - 2026E: 0.36 yuan - 2027E: 0.47 yuan [1] - The P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratios at current price and latest diluted EPS are: - 2023A: 80.56 - 2024A: 101.69 - 2025E: 99.73 - 2026E: 59.78 - 2027E: 45.84 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in the first half of the year, driven by regulatory enforcement in the US and Europe, while net profit declined due to increased non-cash share-based payments and rising operational costs [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 6.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, while net profit was 492 million yuan, down 28.0% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit was 737 million yuan, a slight decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, aligning with previous forecasts [1] - The gross profit margin for the first half was 37.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Segments - The To B business segment generated revenue of 4.939 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in Europe and other markets [2] - The To C business segment reported revenue of 1.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with notable performance from the "Lan Zhi" brand in China [2] - The HNB (Heat-not-Burn) business is progressing as planned, with product launches in Serbia and Sendai, Japan, expected to expand further [3] Cost and Expenses - The increase in share-based payments contributed to a rise in management expense ratios, while R&D expense ratios decreased [3] - Distribution and sales expenses rose due to increased marketing efforts for the company's own brands and global expansion [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued recovery in its core vaporization business, supported by improving regulatory frameworks in the US and Europe [1][2] - The introduction of new HNB products is expected to open a second growth curve for the company [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Profit forecasts have been adjusted downward due to the impact of share-based payments, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.007 billion, 1.830 billion, and 2.559 billion yuan respectively [3] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 27.00 HKD, based on a 71 times PE ratio for 2026 [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline of 0.89%, attributed to internal structural issues despite positive market sentiment [1] - Concerns about "stagflation" in the US economy were highlighted, with initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, exceeding economists' expectations of 221,000 [1] - The US added 73,000 jobs in July, below the expected 100,000, while the personal consumption expenditure inflation rate rose to 2.6% year-on-year in June, higher than the anticipated 2.5% [1] Company Performance - Crocs projected a revenue decline of 9% to 11% for Q3, leading to a nearly 30% drop in its stock price, marking its lowest point in three years [1] - Semiconductor companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reported better-than-expected Q2 results, with SMIC's Q3 revenue guidance indicating a 5-7% increase and Hua Hong's a 11.3% increase [2] - AI application company Mingyuan Cloud turned a profit of 12.09 million to 15.41 million RMB, recovering from a loss of 115.37 million RMB last year, driven by product optimization and AI technology [3] Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical sector showed mixed results, with companies like Rongchang Bio and Junshi Biosciences seeing stock increases of over 6%, while Hutchison China MediTech's stock fell nearly 16% despite a significant profit increase due to asset sales [3] - The real estate sector in Hong Kong faced caution, with Wharf Holdings expressing a pessimistic outlook on retail rental prospects, resulting in an 8% stock drop [4] - Gold stocks remained strong, with companies like Zhaojin Mining and Shandong Gold benefiting from a weaker dollar [4] Infrastructure Developments - The establishment of the Xinjiang section of the New Tibet Railway, with a total investment of up to 350 billion RMB, is expected to boost related sectors, leading to stock increases in construction companies [4] - The MSCI announced the addition of 14 new stocks to its China index, including companies like 3SBio and Meituan, indicating potential investment opportunities [6] Emerging Technologies - The low Earth orbit satellite launch pace is accelerating, with multiple successful launches planned for the second half of the year, enhancing China's capabilities in satellite communications [7] - Companies like Interstellar Aerospace Technology are developing AI application satellites and aim to capture a significant market share in optical remote sensing satellites by 2028 [8] Individual Company Strategies - Smoore International is focusing on business transformation, with expectations of improved performance in HNB products following successful launches in Japan [9] - The company is diversifying into aerosol technology for beauty and medical applications, positioning 2025 as a critical year for growth [10]

基金"试探性"重仓反而收获满满 几乎被国内市场和投资者遗忘的电子烟板块的龙头股，股价创下了三年新高。 5月13日，在恒生指数收盘大跌1.8%的背景下，只有少数基金重仓持有的电子烟巨头思摩尔国际收盘涨幅超 10%，市值逼近1000亿港元，不仅早已收复4月7日的杀跌损失也创下股价的三年新高。值得一提的是，在新消 费已成港股和A股的独立行情之际，且国内股票市场日渐流行"情绪价值"、"悦己消费"的背景下，原先即拥有 大量女性消费用户的思摩尔国际正试图突破电子烟这一印象，并在国内市场以雾化医美业务作为吸引基金经理 的第二增长曲线。 鹏华指数与量化投资部基金经理张羽翔也观察到，部分出口转内销企业开始针对国内需求定制产品，而消费者 对国产品牌的认可度也在提升，推动消费者行为发生深刻变化，医美、宠物经济等"悦己型"消费增速亮眼，性 价比导向强化、国货偏好提升、注重环保和持续性成为当下消费行为一些较为显性的趋势变化。 思摩尔国际在悄无声息中为试探性重仓的基金经理找到"情绪价值"。 由于电子烟政策监管，伴随着市场的遗忘以及思摩尔国际的股价持续杀跌，思摩尔国际不仅从许多消费者、投 资者脑海中消失，也因为阴跌时间实在太长，在信仰崩塌 ...