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思摩尔国际(06969.HK):欧洲雾化快增 看好HNB全球铺开及商业化前景
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-26 19:32
Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance aligns with expectations, showing revenue growth but a decline in net profit, indicating a mixed financial outlook amid evolving market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H25 reached 6.01 billion, an 18.3% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 500 million, a 30.8% decline. Adjusted net profit after stock incentive expenses was 740 million, down 2.1% [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.2 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 225.1%, significantly higher than the 38.7% in 1H24, indicating increased shareholder returns [1]. Market Trends - The ToB revenue grew by 19.5% to 4.739 billion, driven by strong performance in Europe and potential improvements in the U.S. market due to stricter regulations [1]. - In Europe, revenue surged by 38% to 2.73 billion, benefiting from regulatory changes that favored compliant companies [1]. - U.S. revenue increased by 1.5% to 1.89 billion, with expectations of continued improvement as enforcement tightens [1]. - Domestic revenue, however, saw a decline of 6.1% to 120 million [1]. Product Development - The ToC revenue rose by 14.1% to 1.274 billion, with significant growth in the APV segment, particularly in Europe, where new product launches are driving user conversion [2]. - The APV revenue in Europe and the U.S. was 1.07 billion and 170 million, respectively, with declines of 15.1% and 6.7% [2]. - The nebulization beauty segment experienced a remarkable growth of 2595% to 30.618 million, with over 10,000 C-end users and more than 100 B-end partnerships established [2]. Profitability and Costs - The overall gross margin remained stable, decreasing slightly by 0.5 percentage points to 37.3%. However, the net profit margin fell by 5.9 percentage points to 8.3%, and adjusted for stock incentive expenses, it decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 12.3% [2]. - Sales expense ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points to 8.2% due to heightened investment in self-owned brands, while R&D expense ratio decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 12% [2]. - Management expenses rose significantly by 15.5 percentage points to 22.2%, primarily due to increased stock incentive costs [2]. Growth Outlook - The HNB segment is expected to accelerate globally, with Glo Hilo's market share in Japan increasing by 1.5% during its sales period, indicating strong growth potential [3]. - The regulatory environment for vaping products in Europe and the U.S. is expected to lead to a more standardized industry, allowing the company to recover market share and continue growing [3]. - The company is also focusing on developing nebulization medical products and expanding its nebulization beauty segment domestically, which opens up additional growth opportunities [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast and industry outperform rating, with a target price reflecting a 4% upside from the current stock price [3].
思摩尔国际(06969.HK)2025半年度业绩点评:欧洲电子雾化加速修复 HNB有望释放利润弹性
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-23 11:31
Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, aligning with forecast values and exceeding early-year high single-digit expectations [1] - The net profit was 492 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.0%, which is the midpoint of the forecast range, attributed to increased management expenses and legal compliance costs [1] - Adjusted net profit was 737 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, also within the forecast range [1] - The company's gross margin for H1 was 37.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 12.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The self-owned brand business generated revenue of 1.274 billion yuan in H1, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with European revenue growing by 15.1% [1] - The To B business revenue was 4.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with European revenue rising by 38.0% [2] - The HNB market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company collaborating with British American Tobacco on the HNB product gloHilo, which received positive feedback during trials in Japan [2] Group 3: Market Outlook and Projections - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts due to the impact of incentive amortization and other expenses, projecting net profits of 1.33 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected P/E ratios of 100, 60, and 46 for the respective years [3]
思摩尔国际(06969):2025半年度业绩点评:欧洲电子雾化加速修复,HNB有望释放利润弹性
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-22 07:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a recovery in the European electronic vaporization market, and the HNB (Heat-not-Burn) segment is expected to release profit elasticity [8] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 6.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, aligning with forecast values and exceeding initial high single-digit expectations [8] - The HNB market is in a rapid growth phase, with the company collaborating with British American Tobacco on new products, indicating potential for future profit contributions [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 11.177 billion yuan - 2024A: 11.799 billion yuan - 2025E: 13.722 billion yuan - 2026E: 16.166 billion yuan - 2027E: 18.395 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at (8.06)%, 5.56%, 16.30%, 17.81%, and 13.79% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2023A: 1.645 billion yuan - 2024A: 1.303 billion yuan - 2025E: 1.329 billion yuan - 2026E: 2.217 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.891 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at (34.47)%, (20.78)%, 1.96%, 66.84%, and 30.40% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) is projected as follows: - 2023A: 0.27 yuan - 2024A: 0.21 yuan - 2025E: 0.21 yuan - 2026E: 0.36 yuan - 2027E: 0.47 yuan [1] - The P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratios at current price and latest diluted EPS are: - 2023A: 80.56 - 2024A: 101.69 - 2025E: 99.73 - 2026E: 59.78 - 2027E: 45.84 [1]
思摩尔国际(6969.HK):雾化主业积极修复 新业务放量可期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-21 19:28
Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in the first half of the year, driven by regulatory enforcement in the US and Europe, while net profit declined due to increased non-cash share-based payments and rising operational costs [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 6.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, while net profit was 492 million yuan, down 28.0% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit was 737 million yuan, a slight decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, aligning with previous forecasts [1] - The gross profit margin for the first half was 37.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Segments - The To B business segment generated revenue of 4.939 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in Europe and other markets [2] - The To C business segment reported revenue of 1.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with notable performance from the "Lan Zhi" brand in China [2] - The HNB (Heat-not-Burn) business is progressing as planned, with product launches in Serbia and Sendai, Japan, expected to expand further [3] Cost and Expenses - The increase in share-based payments contributed to a rise in management expense ratios, while R&D expense ratios decreased [3] - Distribution and sales expenses rose due to increased marketing efforts for the company's own brands and global expansion [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued recovery in its core vaporization business, supported by improving regulatory frameworks in the US and Europe [1][2] - The introduction of new HNB products is expected to open a second growth curve for the company [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Profit forecasts have been adjusted downward due to the impact of share-based payments, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.007 billion, 1.830 billion, and 2.559 billion yuan respectively [3] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 27.00 HKD, based on a 71 times PE ratio for 2026 [3]
智通港股解盘 | 结构问题引发调整 新藏铁路公司成立周期品再起
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 13:07
Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline of 0.89%, attributed to internal structural issues despite positive market sentiment [1] - Concerns about "stagflation" in the US economy were highlighted, with initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, exceeding economists' expectations of 221,000 [1] - The US added 73,000 jobs in July, below the expected 100,000, while the personal consumption expenditure inflation rate rose to 2.6% year-on-year in June, higher than the anticipated 2.5% [1] Company Performance - Crocs projected a revenue decline of 9% to 11% for Q3, leading to a nearly 30% drop in its stock price, marking its lowest point in three years [1] - Semiconductor companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reported better-than-expected Q2 results, with SMIC's Q3 revenue guidance indicating a 5-7% increase and Hua Hong's a 11.3% increase [2] - AI application company Mingyuan Cloud turned a profit of 12.09 million to 15.41 million RMB, recovering from a loss of 115.37 million RMB last year, driven by product optimization and AI technology [3] Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical sector showed mixed results, with companies like Rongchang Bio and Junshi Biosciences seeing stock increases of over 6%, while Hutchison China MediTech's stock fell nearly 16% despite a significant profit increase due to asset sales [3] - The real estate sector in Hong Kong faced caution, with Wharf Holdings expressing a pessimistic outlook on retail rental prospects, resulting in an 8% stock drop [4] - Gold stocks remained strong, with companies like Zhaojin Mining and Shandong Gold benefiting from a weaker dollar [4] Infrastructure Developments - The establishment of the Xinjiang section of the New Tibet Railway, with a total investment of up to 350 billion RMB, is expected to boost related sectors, leading to stock increases in construction companies [4] - The MSCI announced the addition of 14 new stocks to its China index, including companies like 3SBio and Meituan, indicating potential investment opportunities [6] Emerging Technologies - The low Earth orbit satellite launch pace is accelerating, with multiple successful launches planned for the second half of the year, enhancing China's capabilities in satellite communications [7] - Companies like Interstellar Aerospace Technology are developing AI application satellites and aim to capture a significant market share in optical remote sensing satellites by 2028 [8] Individual Company Strategies - Smoore International is focusing on business transformation, with expectations of improved performance in HNB products following successful launches in Japan [9] - The company is diversifying into aerosol technology for beauty and medical applications, positioning 2025 as a critical year for growth [10]
被基金“遗忘”的电子烟,迎来第二增长曲线?
券商中国· 2025-05-14 08:15
Core Viewpoint - The electronic cigarette sector, particularly the leading company Smoore International, has seen a resurgence in stock price, reaching a three-year high, despite a broader market decline, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and consumer behavior towards new consumption trends [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Smoore International's stock price increased by 10.39% on May 13, bringing its market capitalization close to 100 billion HKD, recovering from previous losses and marking a three-year high [2]. - The company's 2024 revenue was reported at 11.8 billion CNY, a 5.3% increase from the previous year, while net profit decreased by 20.78% to 1.303 billion CNY [4]. - The sales revenue from Smoore's proprietary brand business reached approximately 2.475 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of about 34% compared to the previous year [4]. Group 2: Market Trends - There is a notable shift in consumer behavior towards "self-indulgent" consumption, with an increasing preference for domestic brands and products tailored to local needs, driven by rising consumer recognition and changing consumption patterns [1][7]. - The trend of "emotional value" in consumer products is gaining traction, particularly among female consumers, which aligns with Smoore's strategy to expand its product offerings beyond electronic cigarettes [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Fund managers have shown a cautious yet optimistic approach towards Smoore International, with some engaging in "exploratory heavy positions" despite the company's recent challenges, indicating a belief in its potential for recovery and growth [3][4]. - The focus on "self-indulgent" consumption products, such as beauty and wellness items, is expected to drive future growth for companies like Smoore, as they align with emerging consumer preferences [5][8].