证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 思摩尔国际（06969.HK） 优于大市 2025 年中期业绩点评： 雾化主业如期修复，HNB 与雾化医疗蓄力长期增长 公司是全球雾化龙头，雾化基本盘业务企稳回升，HNB 商业化落地有望带来 二次增长。考虑到公司股份激励费用支出与自主品牌处于全球投入期，下调 盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润 12.4/18.2/25.6 亿元（前值 为 15.2/20.0/25.2 亿元），同比分别为-4.9%/+47.0%/+40.8%；摊薄 EPS=0.20/0.29/0.41 元，对应 PE=98/67/48 倍，维持"优于大市"评级。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 11,177 | 11,799 | 13,352 | 15,158 | 18,479 | | (+/-%) | -8.1% | 5.6% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 21.9% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, aligning with forecast values and exceeding early-year high single-digit expectations [1] - The net profit was 492 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.0%, which is the midpoint of the forecast range, attributed to increased management expenses and legal compliance costs [1] - Adjusted net profit was 737 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, also within the forecast range [1] - The company's gross margin for H1 was 37.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 12.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The self-owned brand business generated revenue of 1.274 billion yuan in H1, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with European revenue growing by 15.1% [1] - The To B business revenue was 4.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with European revenue rising by 38.0% [2] - The HNB market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company collaborating with British American Tobacco on the HNB product gloHilo, which received positive feedback during trials in Japan [2] Group 3: Market Outlook and Projections - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts due to the impact of incentive amortization and other expenses, projecting net profits of 1.33 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected P/E ratios of 100, 60, and 46 for the respective years [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 27.00 [1][5][6] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached HKD 6.013 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, while net profit decreased by 28.0% to HKD 0.492 billion. Adjusted net profit was HKD 0.737 billion, down 2.1% year-on-year, aligning with previous forecasts [1][5] - The growth in revenue is attributed to the strengthening of law enforcement and regulatory policies in the US and parts of Europe, leading to a recovery in the company's B2B business and stable growth in its B2C brand business. The decline in net profit is primarily due to increased non-cash share-based payments and rising costs associated with expanding proprietary brand operations [1][2] - The company is expected to continue its recovery in the vaping sector, supported by ongoing improvements in regulatory frameworks in the US and Europe, while new business lines such as HNB (Heated Not Burned) are anticipated to grow significantly [1][5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company's B2B business generated revenue of HKD 4.939 billion, up 19.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in Europe (38.0% increase) due to new compliance regulations. The US market saw a modest increase of 1.5% despite a predominance of non-compliant products [2] - The B2C business achieved revenue of HKD 1.274 billion, a 14.1% increase, with notable performance from the "Lan Zhi" beauty brand in China, which saw a staggering 2595% growth [3] Cost Structure and Expenses - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 37.3%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising labor and indirect costs. The distribution and sales expenses increased due to heightened marketing efforts for proprietary brands [4] - The adjusted net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 12.3%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the impact of increased share-based payment expenses [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Profit forecasts have been adjusted downward, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at HKD 1.007 billion, HKD 1.830 billion, and HKD 2.559 billion, respectively. The adjusted profits are projected to be HKD 1.267 billion, HKD 2.140 billion, and HKD 2.759 billion for the same years [5][10] - The target price is set at HKD 27.00, based on a 71x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the company's potential for long-term growth in the vaping sector and new markets [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 25.00, up from the previous target of HKD 16.25 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a revenue increase of 18% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with projected revenue of HKD 60.13 billion. However, net profit is forecasted to decline by 21% to 35% year-on-year, primarily due to increased non-cash share payments and rising operational costs associated with expanding its proprietary brand business [1][4]. - The regulatory environment in the US and Europe is tightening, which is anticipated to drive demand for compliant products, positively impacting the company's core vaporization business [2][4]. - The new HNB product, Glo Hilo, has shown promising performance in the Japanese market, indicating significant growth potential for the company as it expands its product offerings [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of HKD 13.23 billion, HKD 21.40 billion, and HKD 27.62 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.21, HKD 0.35, and HKD 0.45 [4][10]. Market and Regulatory Environment - The report highlights that the enforcement of regulations by the FDA in the US and similar measures in Europe are expected to restore sales of compliant vapor products, benefiting the company's market position [2][4]. Product Development and Innovation - The Glo Hilo product, launched in Japan, features enhanced heating efficiency and a variety of flavor options, which are expected to validate the product's market potential and drive future growth [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a PE ratio of 65 for 2026, reflecting the company's strong growth prospects and competitive advantages in the HNB market, leading to a target price increase [4][10].