Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with a 21.8% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, amounting to 10.21 billion yuan [8] - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) products are gradually being promoted, with positive feedback from customers and plans for expansion into new markets [8] - The company is expected to benefit from stricter regulations in the electronic vaporization market, leading to a recovery in its business [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11,168 million yuan, 11,799 million yuan, 13,722 million yuan, 16,166 million yuan, and 18,395 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.04%, 5.64%, 16.30%, 17.81%, and 13.79% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is projected to be 1,645 million yuan, 1,303 million yuan, 1,331 million yuan, 2,219 million yuan, and 2,893 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -34.47%, -20.78%, 2.11%, 66.75%, and 30.37% [1] - The latest diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) is forecasted to be 0.27 yuan, 0.21 yuan, 0.21 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.47 yuan for the years 2023A to 2027E [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 15.77 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 89.18 billion HKD [5] - The price-to-book ratio is 3.97 [5] - The company has a total share capital of 6,193.04 million shares [6]

国金证券发布研报称，维持思摩尔国际(06969)"买入"评级，预计公司2025-2027年EPS分别为 0.22/0.39/0.59元，当前股价对应PE分别为67/37/25倍。10月12日，公司发布2025Q3财务更新公告。 2025Q1-Q3，公司实现营收102.10亿元，同比+21.8%，实现净利润/调整后净利润(扣除股权激励费用影 响)8.09/11.82亿元，同比-23.8%/+0.1%。其中25Q3公司实现营收41.97亿元，同比+27.2%，实现净利润/ 调整后净利润3.17/4.44亿元，同比-16.4%/+4.0%。 国金证券主要观点如下： HNB业务预计收入贡献显著，雾化业务延续改善态势 25Q3公司调整后净利润同比+4.0%至4.44亿元，调整后净利率为10.6%，较24Q3的11.5%下降1.0%。利 润率虽同比下降，但无需担忧，整体业绩仍较优，并且后续利润弹性值得期待，主因：1)HNB业务发展 初期以低毛利率的烟具销售为主，预计后续随着烟弹复购逐步起量叠加规模效应显现，HNB业务盈利 能力将显著抬升。2)预计公司医疗雾化等领域的研发投入仍在加大。近期公司子公司的仿制药简略新药 申请已 ...

调整后净利已恢复增长态势，后续利润弹性可期 25Q3公司调整后净利润同比+4.0%至4.44亿元，调整后净利率为10.6%，较24Q3的11.5%下降1.0%。利 润率虽同比下降，但无需担忧，整体业绩仍较优，并且后续利润弹性值得期待，主因：1)HNB业务发展 初期以低毛利率的烟具销售为主，预计后续随着烟弹复购逐步起量叠加规模效应显现，HNB业务盈利 能力将显著抬升。2)预计公司医疗雾化等领域的研发投入仍在加大。近期公司子公司的仿制药简略新药 申请已被FDA受理，公司医疗雾化业务取得阶段性进展，后续有望逐步开始实质性贡献。 欧美雾化市场扩容&HNB加速贡献业绩增量，长期增长逻辑正逐步兑现，把握布局机遇 国金证券主要观点如下： HNB业务预计收入贡献显著，雾化业务延续改善态势 得益于HNB产品hilo上市开始贡献营收增量以及欧美市场对非法产品监管力度不断强化，公司HNB及雾 化业务营收环比及同比均实现较优增长。分业务看：1)HNB业务，9月以来hilo逐步在日本及波兰全面上 市，依托其优异的产品力，整体销售较优，预计25Q3公司HNB业务收入增量贡献显著。2)雾化电子烟 业务，预计25Q3公司该业务整体营收实现双 ...

欧美雾化市场扩容&HNB 加速贡献业绩增量，长期增长逻辑正逐步兑现，把握布局机遇。展望后续， 欧美合法雾化市场规模扩容已是大势所趋，并且HNB 产品glo hilo 目前在波兰市场已逐步开始促销，在 产品力优异叠加营销逐步跟进的背景下，后续该产品全球起量可期，HNB 业务成长空间可期。整体来 看，延续此前观点，公司作为唯一一家深度切入海外烟草巨头雾化+HNB 两大品类供应链的上市企业， 后续成长具备确定性。 盈利预测、估值与评级 机构：国金证券 研究员：张杨桓/赵中平 业绩简评 10 月12 日，公司发布2025Q3 财务更新公告。2025Q1-Q3，公司实现营收102.10 亿元，同比+21.8%，实 现净利润/调整后净利润（扣除股权激励费用影响）8.09/11.82 亿元，同比-23.8%/+0.1%。其中25Q3 公 司实现营收41.97 亿元，同比+27.2%，实现净利润/调整后净利润3.17/4.44 亿元，同比-16.4%/+4.0%。 经营分析 HNB 业务预计收入贡献显著，雾化业务延续改善态势。得益于HNB产品hilo 上市开始贡献营收增量以 及欧美市场对非法产品监管力度不断强化，公司HNB ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 6.013 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, while adjusted profit slightly decreased by 2.1% to 737 million HKD [1] - The company is benefiting from the global trend towards regulatory compliance, with its vaping business recovering as expected [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.20 HKD per share [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's To B business revenue increased by 19.5% year-on-year to 4.74 billion HKD, with European revenue growing by 38.0% to 2.73 billion HKD [2] - In the U.S., revenue was 1.5% higher at 1.89 billion HKD, while domestic revenue decreased by 6.1% to 120 million HKD [2] - The self-owned brand business revenue grew by 14.1% year-on-year to 1.27 billion HKD, with European revenue increasing by 15.1% [3] Long-term Growth Potential - The successful commercialization of HNB products and steady progress in vaping medical applications are expected to drive long-term growth [3] - The company launched high-end HNB products in Japan, with plans for nationwide expansion and entry into more key markets in the second half of 2025 [3] Financial Forecasts - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 1.239 billion HKD, 1.822 billion HKD, and 2.565 billion HKD respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -4.9%, +47.0%, and +40.8% [4] - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.20, 0.29, and 0.41 HKD for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 98, 67, and 48 [4]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, aligning with forecast values and exceeding early-year high single-digit expectations [1] - The net profit was 492 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.0%, which is the midpoint of the forecast range, attributed to increased management expenses and legal compliance costs [1] - Adjusted net profit was 737 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, also within the forecast range [1] - The company's gross margin for H1 was 37.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 12.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The self-owned brand business generated revenue of 1.274 billion yuan in H1, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with European revenue growing by 15.1% [1] - The To B business revenue was 4.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with European revenue rising by 38.0% [2] - The HNB market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company collaborating with British American Tobacco on the HNB product gloHilo, which received positive feedback during trials in Japan [2] Group 3: Market Outlook and Projections - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts due to the impact of incentive amortization and other expenses, projecting net profits of 1.33 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected P/E ratios of 100, 60, and 46 for the respective years [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 27.00 [1][5][6] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached HKD 6.013 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, while net profit decreased by 28.0% to HKD 0.492 billion. Adjusted net profit was HKD 0.737 billion, down 2.1% year-on-year, aligning with previous forecasts [1][5] - The growth in revenue is attributed to the strengthening of law enforcement and regulatory policies in the US and parts of Europe, leading to a recovery in the company's B2B business and stable growth in its B2C brand business. The decline in net profit is primarily due to increased non-cash share-based payments and rising costs associated with expanding proprietary brand operations [1][2] - The company is expected to continue its recovery in the vaping sector, supported by ongoing improvements in regulatory frameworks in the US and Europe, while new business lines such as HNB (Heated Not Burned) are anticipated to grow significantly [1][5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company's B2B business generated revenue of HKD 4.939 billion, up 19.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in Europe (38.0% increase) due to new compliance regulations. The US market saw a modest increase of 1.5% despite a predominance of non-compliant products [2] - The B2C business achieved revenue of HKD 1.274 billion, a 14.1% increase, with notable performance from the "Lan Zhi" beauty brand in China, which saw a staggering 2595% growth [3] Cost Structure and Expenses - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 37.3%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising labor and indirect costs. The distribution and sales expenses increased due to heightened marketing efforts for proprietary brands [4] - The adjusted net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 12.3%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the impact of increased share-based payment expenses [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Profit forecasts have been adjusted downward, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at HKD 1.007 billion, HKD 1.830 billion, and HKD 2.559 billion, respectively. The adjusted profits are projected to be HKD 1.267 billion, HKD 2.140 billion, and HKD 2.759 billion for the same years [5][10] - The target price is set at HKD 27.00, based on a 71x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the company's potential for long-term growth in the vaping sector and new markets [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 25.00, up from the previous target of HKD 16.25 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a revenue increase of 18% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with projected revenue of HKD 60.13 billion. However, net profit is forecasted to decline by 21% to 35% year-on-year, primarily due to increased non-cash share payments and rising operational costs associated with expanding its proprietary brand business [1][4]. - The regulatory environment in the US and Europe is tightening, which is anticipated to drive demand for compliant products, positively impacting the company's core vaporization business [2][4]. - The new HNB product, Glo Hilo, has shown promising performance in the Japanese market, indicating significant growth potential for the company as it expands its product offerings [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of HKD 13.23 billion, HKD 21.40 billion, and HKD 27.62 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.21, HKD 0.35, and HKD 0.45 [4][10]. Market and Regulatory Environment - The report highlights that the enforcement of regulations by the FDA in the US and similar measures in Europe are expected to restore sales of compliant vapor products, benefiting the company's market position [2][4]. Product Development and Innovation - The Glo Hilo product, launched in Japan, features enhanced heating efficiency and a variety of flavor options, which are expected to validate the product's market potential and drive future growth [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a PE ratio of 65 for 2026, reflecting the company's strong growth prospects and competitive advantages in the HNB market, leading to a target price increase [4][10].