Group 1 - The black sector is experiencing a price rebound due to macroeconomic sentiment, but the upside is limited by supply and demand conditions [1] - Domestic demand is seasonally weakening, with electric furnaces and some blast furnaces facing losses, leading to a decline in molten iron production [1] - The supply of iron ore is not meeting expectations, with a year-on-year decrease in cumulative shipments and a slowdown in new project ramp-ups [1] Group 2 - The coal supply remains stable, with high production levels, while the news regarding the increase in coal export tariffs from Mongolia has not been confirmed [1] - The market for alloy materials is under pressure due to increased inventory and cautious market sentiment, particularly in manganese and silicon iron [1] - The glass sector is facing declining demand in the off-season, with weak processing demand and existing supply pressures [1] Group 3 - Overall, the previous price declines have created momentum for a rebound, driven by macroeconomic factors and news related to coking coal [1] - Despite the rebound, the construction and manufacturing sectors are entering a low-demand season, limiting the potential for significant demand growth [1] - The medium-term outlook suggests a volatile market, with attention needed on future policy directions [1]

长江期货PTA月报 终端需求受限，聚酯远期偏弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-30 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 走势回顾：成本影响，先跌后涨 02 供应方面：减产降负，供应减少 03 需求方面：终端不佳，需求受限 04 逻辑与展望：终端受限，远期偏弱 目录 05 01 走势回顾：成本影响，先跌后涨 01 行情回顾-4月PTA先跌后反弹 n 4月PTA期货主力合约期价先跌后反弹，主要受 国外宏观与成本端原油涨跌影响。月初，受美国 关税政策等不确定因素影响，国际油价暴跌，成 本端支撑不足，PTA价格重心持续下滑。另外， 终端外销订单暂缓或取消，传统旺季下终端负荷 下降，下游聚酯负荷缓慢下降，成品库存也处于 累库阶段，市场信心不足，价格走低；月中贸易 争端有所反复，下游多持观望态度，聚酯价格低 位震荡；月底关税争端有缓和迹象，商品情绪修 ...