投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-10-09 ⻓假期间市场平稳，节后关注政策预期 ⻓假期间钢材、钢坯价格维稳为主，铁矿掉期及现货价格⼩幅上涨0. 3-1.3%⽔平，焦炭⾸轮提涨落地，⽽焦煤、合⾦以及玻璃纯碱价格 维稳，整体板块品种价格变动有限。从10⽉上旬⾏业需求表现来 看，依然亮点不⾜，叠加海外关税扰动频发，将限制节后板块品种价 格的上⾏⾼度，同时⾼铁⽔继续⽀撑炉料需求及价格，进⽽稳固钢材 成本。 长假期间钢材、钢坯价格维稳为主，铁矿掉期及现货价格小幅上涨0. 3-1.3%水平，焦炭首轮提涨落地，而焦煤、合金以及玻璃纯碱价格维 稳，整体板块品种价格变动有限。从10月上旬行业需求表现来看，依 然亮点不足，叠加海外关税扰动频发，将限制节后板块品种价格的上 行高度，同时高铁水继续支撑炉料需求及价格，进而稳固钢材成本。 1、铁元素方面，随着三季度结束，部分矿山季末冲量暂告段落、海 外矿山发运环比小幅减量，而国内台风扰动下降，港口到港量环比增 加、符合预期，高铁水下刚需仍有支撑，假期消耗库存为主，部分钢 厂节后有补库计划，整体库存压力不突出。四季度重要会议以及宏 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-25 "反内卷"交易未⽌，短期价格仍有波 动 昨⽇《建材⾏业稳增⻓⽅案》出台，市场"反内卷"情绪、尤其是针 对玻璃品种再度加强，⽇盘板块⼀度整体快速拉升，之后⼩幅回落， 夜盘时段，板块震荡运⾏为主。从《建材⾏业稳增⻓⽅案》出台以及 市场表现来看，"反内卷"交易未⽌，且后期仍有预期，当前基本⾯ ⽆显著变化，因此价格保持震荡过程中继续受"反内卷"交易扰动。 昨日《建材行业稳增长方案》出台，市场"反内卷"情绪、尤其是针 对玻璃品种再度加强，日盘板块一度整体快速拉升，之后小幅回落， 夜盘时段，板块震荡运行为主。从《建材行业稳增长方案》出台以及 市场表现来看，"反内卷"交易未止，且后期仍有预期，当前基本面 无显著变化，因此价格保持震荡过程中继续受"反内卷"交易扰动。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿需求高位支撑，厂内库存增加，体现节前补 库，当前台风因素预计影响周内到港，短期基本面健康，但建材旺季 需求仍表现欠佳，限制铁矿上方空间，预计短期价格震荡。废钢供需 再度双增，且钢企节前有补库需求，支撑现货价格，预计短期震荡。 2、碳元素方面， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 5.01%, reaching 56.85 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 14.872 billion CNY [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-end metal powder materials for electronics, with its main revenue sources being nickel-based products (76.28%), copper-based products (10.27%), and silver powder (4.95%) [1] - The trading volume for the stock was 251 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 1.73% [1] Group 2 - Longsheng Fund has a significant holding in Boqian New Materials, with its Longsheng Transformation Upgrade Mixed Fund (001197) holding 156,800 shares, representing 3.14% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 29.49% and a one-year return of 44.46%, ranking 2850 out of 8172 and 3778 out of 7980 in its category, respectively [2] - The fund manager, Wang Bingfang, has been in position for nearly four years, with the fund's total asset size at 370 million CNY [3]

Core Insights - The stock of Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 5.15% on September 16, reaching a price of 52.52 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 420 million CNY and a turnover rate of 3.13%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 13.739 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Co., Ltd. was established on November 5, 2010, and went public on December 8, 2020. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-end metal powder materials for electronics [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes: nickel-based products (76.28%), copper-based products (10.27%), other (supplementary) products (6.34%), silver powder (4.95%), and alloys (2.16%) [1] Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Industrial Bank, the Industrial Energy Innovation Stock A (013049), has a significant position in Boqian New Materials. In the second quarter, the fund reduced its holdings by 157,400 shares, maintaining 300,000 shares, which represents 2.31% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding [2] - The Industrial Energy Innovation Stock A (013049) was established on August 31, 2021, with a current size of 277 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 30.47%, ranking 1496 out of 4222 in its category; over the past year, returns are 57.58%, ranking 1706 out of 3804; since inception, the fund has experienced a loss of 3.75% [2] Fund Manager Profile - The fund manager of Industrial Energy Innovation Stock A (013049) is Zou Hui, who has been in the position for 4 years and 297 days. The total asset size of the fund is 5.774 billion CNY, with the best return during the tenure being 83.92% and the worst return being -6.24% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc concentrate resources are crucial for societal development, providing a buffer during resource supply disruptions, with China being the largest producer and consumer of zinc concentrate globally [1][2]. Zinc Concentrate Industry Definition and Characteristics - Zinc concentrate is produced from lead-zinc ore or zinc-containing ore through processes like crushing, ball milling, and froth flotation, achieving a high zinc content of 40-55% [2]. Current Development Status of the Zinc Concentrate Industry - In 2023, China's zinc concentrate production was 2.965 million tons, with a projected production of approximately 2.936 million tons in 2024 and 788,300 tons from January to May 2025 [1][2]. Zinc Concentrate Price Trends - Domestic zinc prices are expected to rise in a stepwise manner in 2024, with an average price of 23,398 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,765 yuan/ton or 8.16% compared to 2023 [4]. Zinc Concentrate Industry Import Trade - Due to high demand from infrastructure and galvanizing industries, China is projected to import 4.0964 million tons of zinc concentrate in 2024, with a significant increase in imports in the first half of 2025 [6]. Zinc Concentrate Industry Competitive Landscape - Major companies in China's zinc concentrate sector include Chihong Zn & Ge, Zhongjin Lingnan, Western Mining, and others, with abundant zinc resources distributed across the country [7][9]. Development Trends in the Zinc Concentrate Industry - China aims to increase its self-sufficiency rate of zinc to 65% by 2025, with new zinc resources discovered in regions like Yunnan and Guizhou, providing a resource guarantee for domestic production [10].

Company Overview - Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Co., Ltd. is located in Suqian City, Jiangsu Province, and was established on November 5, 2010. The company went public on December 8, 2020. Its main business involves the research, production, and sales of high-end metal powder materials for electronics [1]. - The revenue composition of the company includes nickel-based products at 76.28%, copper-based products at 10.27%, other supplementary products at 6.34%, silver powder at 4.95%, and alloys at 2.16% [1]. Stock Performance - On September 4, Boqian New Materials' stock fell by 5.06%, closing at 43.95 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 250 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.09%. The total market capitalization is 11.497 billion yuan [1]. Fund Holdings - Longsheng Fund has a significant holding in Boqian New Materials, with its Longsheng Transformation Upgrade Mixed Fund (001197) holding 156,800 shares, unchanged from the previous period. This represents 3.14% of the fund's net value, making it the second-largest holding [2]. - The Longsheng Transformation Upgrade Mixed Fund was established on April 21, 2015, with a current size of 192 million yuan. Year-to-date, it has returned 23.5%, ranking 3094 out of 8180 in its category. Over the past year, it has returned 30.56%, ranking 4447 out of 7978. Since inception, it has incurred a loss of 15.4% [2]. Fund Manager Information - The fund manager of Longsheng Transformation Upgrade Mixed Fund is Wang Bingfang, who has been in the position for 3 years and 46 days. The total asset size of the fund is 370 million yuan. During his tenure, the best fund return was -6.88%, while the worst was -47.99% [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The short - term market is in a state of intense competition between "anti - involution" and the decline in social inventory out - flow during the off - season, and may be in a consolidation phase. The price of the SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 20,200 and 20,900 [5][13]. - In the medium term, due to factors such as the continuous decline in the out - flow rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory during the off - season, the lack of mention of alumina capacity clearance in the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027, and the production increase in Shanxi alumina, the supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being. However, there is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the "anti - involution" background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze with low warehouse receipts and a high virtual - to - real ratio. It is recommended to hold long positions at low levels in the medium term [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation. In the off - season, the out - flow rate of domestic aluminum ingot social inventory continues to decline. The supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being, but there is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the "anti - involution" background, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions at low levels in the medium term [5]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract was expected to oscillate between 20,500 and 21,100. It was advisable to appropriately arrange long positions near the lower end of the range [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The price may enter a wide - range oscillation phase. The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Hedging Recommendation for Spot Enterprises**: Consider appropriately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. 3. Overall View Supply - related - **Bauxite Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic bauxite is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported bauxite at ports and alumina plants is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short term. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter. If Guinea's shipments remain low and domestic bauxite inventory continues to decline, the price may turn upward in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Alumina Market**: In July, the operating capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina remained stable at about 88.27 million tons per year. There is a new production capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity may reach a new high in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to the rainy season in Guinea and the operating capacity of alumina under the "anti - involution" background [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: With the recovery of domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting profits this year, some production capacity that was cut last year has gradually resumed production. Currently, the utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has exceeded 95%. Due to the production capacity ceiling, there is limited new production capacity in the future [10]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,300 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been increasing. Although the growth rate has declined since April due to tariff disturbances, overall, it shows resilience [10]. Demand - related - **Aluminum Profiles**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum profile enterprises remained stable at 50.5% this week. The new orders for construction profiles are weak, and the overall operating rate of industrial profiles remained stable. In the off - season, the market is difficult to achieve significant growth and is expected to remain stable in the short term [12]. - **Aluminum Sheet, Strip and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 69.6%. With the upcoming high - temperature holidays in August, some upstream production enterprises may make production - cut plans, and the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry will continue to remain low in the short term. The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises remained stable at 63.2%, and it will maintain a low - level operation under the weak domestic and overseas demand [12]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.6% this week. Although it is still at a low level in the short term, there are signs of marginal improvement, and the operating rate is expected to enter a recovery phase in August [12]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 54.0%. The industry is in a game between "aluminum water allocation - led" and "aluminum price suppressing demand". Although the export volume data is better than expected recently, the export situation may still be deeply adjusted, and substantial recovery depends on clear policies and alleviation of cost pressure. The operating rate of leading secondary aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 53.1% this week. Affected by factors such as declining demand, difficult raw material replenishment, and profit inversion, the operating rate is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [12]. Inventory - related - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The latest inventory of aluminum ingots is 512,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 35% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,800 tons, a decrease of about 10% from last week and an increase of about 5% from the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July and is still at a low level since 1990 [12]. Profit - related - **Alumina Profit**: Currently, the average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton, compared with about 550 yuan/ton last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: Currently, the average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton, the same as last week, and the profit is at a relatively high level [13]. Market Expectation and Outlook - **Market Expectation**: There is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal of alumina under the "anti - involution" background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze. However, considering that the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027 does not mention alumina capacity clearance and the production increase in Shanxi alumina, the supply side has no obvious constraints for the time being. Attention should be paid to the supply - side clearance policy, and beware of the downward trend if the expectation is not met. In the short term, the long - short game is intense [13]. - **Personal View**: The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is the lowest in the whole year. August is the window period for the conversion between the off - season and the peak season. With the easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. With the implementation of domestic "anti - involution" and stable - growth policies, the supply - demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically. In the next week, due to the continuous decline in the out - flow rate of aluminum ingots during the off - season, the "anti - involution" expectation has cooled down, and the price may enter a wide - range oscillation phase. The SHFE Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900 [13]. - **Key Concerns**: Whether the inventory of LME and domestic electrolytic aluminum accumulates more than expected and the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [13]. - **Direction**: The market is in a large - range oscillation and is expected to strengthen slightly in August [13]. 4. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm for bauxite is average. In August, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to be reflected in the domestic bauxite supply, and imports are expected to decline. The price of imported bauxite is expected to oscillate between 70 - 75 US dollars per dry ton in the short term. The coal price continued to rise steadily this week, and there is an expectation of marginal tightening of domestic supply before September. The alumina price rose first and then fell, and there is no obvious sign of a trend reversal [14]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum rose first and then fell this week, and was blocked again at the 21,000 level. The short - term market may be in a consolidation phase [15]. 5. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite continued to increase slightly. The inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The LME aluminum inventory continued to increase, mainly due to weak overseas demand and the new position - limit rule of LME's near - month contracts [17][19]. 6. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit Situation**: This week, the average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The theoretical loss of alumina imports is about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton. The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Downstream Processing Enterprises**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline slightly next week [25][26]. 7. Futures - Spot Structure - The overall price structure of SHFE aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the strength has weakened compared with last month [30]. 8. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,430 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,330 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the price of electrolytic aluminum [37][38]. 9. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has been rising slightly in the past 11 weeks. Since May, the short side has been reducing positions overall, and the long side has been increasing positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [40]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has decreased slightly. Both the long and short sides have increased positions slightly in the past week. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation first increased and then decreased, generally remaining at the same level as last week. The net short position of funds mainly from mid - downstream enterprises has decreased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [43].

Core Insights - In May, the procurement costs of most primary raw materials for enterprises decreased month-on-month, except for metallurgical coke, domestic pellets, and imported pellets, which saw slight increases [1] Group 1: Procurement Cost Changes - Coking coal procurement cost decreased by 0.91% month-on-month, with an average cost of 1227.16 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 32.26% [2] - Injection coal procurement cost decreased by 2.94% month-on-month, with an average cost of 903.47 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.76% [3] - Metallurgical coke procurement cost increased by 0.96% month-on-month, with an average cost of 1474.85 CNY/ton in May, but a year-on-year decrease of 28.53% [4] - Domestic iron concentrate procurement cost decreased by 0.05% month-on-month, with an average cost of 762.98 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.35% [5] - Imported powder ore procurement cost decreased by 1.59% month-on-month, with an average cost of 750.01 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.66% [6] - Scrap steel procurement cost decreased by 0.60% month-on-month, with an average cost of 2158.02 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.46% [8] - Silicon manganese alloy procurement cost decreased by 3.59% month-on-month, with an average cost of 5265.77 CNY/ton in May, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.09% [9] - Manganese alloy procurement cost decreased by 3.17% month-on-month, with an average cost of 6236.93 CNY/ton in May, but a year-on-year increase of 0.69% [10] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - The lowest five enterprises for coking coal procurement had an average cost of 1057.82 CNY/ton, which is 19.09% lower than the average procurement cost [2] - The lowest five enterprises for injection coal procurement had an average cost of 739.41 CNY/ton, which is 24.49% lower than the average procurement cost [3] - The lowest five enterprises for metallurgical coke procurement had an average cost of 1339.75 CNY/ton, which is 13.35% lower than the average procurement cost [4] - The lowest five enterprises for domestic iron concentrate procurement had an average cost of 659.26 CNY/ton, which is 14.95% lower than the average procurement cost [5] - The lowest five enterprises for imported powder ore procurement had an average cost of 723.08 CNY/ton, which is 7.57% lower than the average procurement cost [6] - The lowest five enterprises for scrap steel procurement had an average cost of 1924.10 CNY/ton, which is 12.49% lower than the average procurement cost [8] - The lowest five enterprises for silicon manganese alloy procurement had an average cost of 5248.31 CNY/ton, which is 5.13% lower than the average procurement cost [9] - The lowest five enterprises for manganese alloy procurement had an average cost of 4872.49 CNY/ton, which is 25.59% lower than the average procurement cost [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company received an inquiry letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its 2024 annual report, focusing on related party transactions and the significant increase in sales and purchases from related parties over the past three years [1][2]. Related Party Transactions - The company reported related party sales and service amounts of 3.22 billion, 5.8 billion, and 9.672 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, while related party purchases were 10.686 billion, 13.785 billion, and 19.699 billion yuan for the same periods, indicating a substantial increase in both sales and purchases [2][3]. - The company engaged in significant transactions with related parties such as HSBC Industrial Products and other subsidiaries of the parent company, with sales and purchases often occurring simultaneously and involving similar amounts [2][3][4]. Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism for various products, including steel and raw materials, is based on market prices, production costs, and competitive negotiations, ensuring that the pricing is fair and aligned with market conditions [6][10][12]. - The company employs a differentiated pricing strategy for steel products, with prices adjusted based on regional market conditions and demand-supply dynamics [6][10]. Financial Performance and Industry Context - The company has faced continuous revenue decline and losses from 2022 to 2024, with total losses amounting to 6.143 billion yuan, while the asset-liability ratio increased from 67.12% to 83.98% [13][36]. - The steel industry is undergoing structural reforms and transitioning towards green and low-carbon production, which has impacted the company's operational performance [13][14]. Construction Projects - The company has significantly increased its investment in construction projects, with the balance of construction projects rising from 750 million yuan at the end of 2020 to 9.558 billion yuan by the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a nearly 13-fold increase [36][37]. - The company is focusing on projects aimed at product structure adjustment and resource utilization, ensuring that project funding aligns with construction progress [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range fluctuations, with an overall upward - biased trend in July and August [5][13]. - In the short term, aluminum prices may fluctuate with a slight upward bias, with the upper pressure level around 21,000 yuan [13]. - Considering the current off - season and weak downstream new orders, the spot premium continues to decline, which may put pressure on aluminum prices in the next 1 - 2 weeks. However, due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation, anti - involution, a 45 million - ton supply ceiling, and uncertainties in overseas mine disturbances, the downside space is limited. The range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 in the next week is expected to be between 20,200 and 20,900 yuan [5][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range fluctuation, expected to be upward - biased in July and August. Although the spot premium decline may pressure aluminum prices in the next 1 - 2 weeks, the downside space is limited due to multiple factors [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: New orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level fluctuating market [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The expected fluctuation range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract last week was 20,300 - 20,800 yuan, and short - term trading was recommended [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The expected range of Shanghai Aluminum 2508 this week is 20,200 - 20,900 yuan. Appropriate long positions can be arranged near the lower end of the range [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Ore Market**: From August, China's bauxite imports from Guinea are expected to decrease. The annual import volume in the second half of the year may decline compared to the first half, with a risk of a supply - demand gap. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter and may turn upward in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Alumina Market**: As of July 11, the domestic metallurgical alumina production capacity was about 111.75 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 91.9 million tons and an operating rate of about 82%. There is room for the operating capacity to reach a new high in the third quarter. The 95% percentile cash cost and full cost are in the ranges of [2800, 3000] and [3000, 3200] yuan/ton respectively [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative production from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity was 96% at the end of June, remaining stable month - on - month and 0.32% higher than the same period last year [11]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1350 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been growing, and although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, they still show resilience [11]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of the aluminum profile industry remained stable at 49.5%. The operating rate of the aluminum plate and strip industry decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 63.2%, and that of the aluminum foil industry remained stable at 69.6%. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.6%. The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 54.0%, and that of the recycled aluminum industry remained stable at 53.6% [12]. - **Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 465,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous two weeks and about 41% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 156,800 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and about 8% from the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased slightly this week [12]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 550 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3300 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: Affected by the frequent adjustment of US tariff policies, the commodity market is more volatile. The supply side is stable, the demand side is weak, and the spot basis has widened. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate with a slight upward bias in the short term, with the upper pressure level around 21,000 yuan [13]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The price of bauxite from Guinea decreased slightly, while the prices of bauxite from Australia and Indonesia remained stable. The price of alumina increased slightly, and the price of electrolytic aluminum was relatively strong. The price of aluminum alloy and aluminum rods also increased slightly [14]. - The overall supply of domestic alumina is in surplus, but due to uncertainties in the mine end and anti - involution, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 3300 yuan [14]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by strong costs and restricted by weak demand. It is expected that the price of ADC12 will maintain a weak and narrow - range fluctuation pattern in July [14]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, the alumina inventory increased slightly, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum rod inventory increased. The LME aluminum inventory continued to increase [16][17]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - For the whole year of 2025, the domestic aluminum supply - demand is expected to be tighter than in 2024. It may experience seasonal surplus in July and tighten up after August [18]. - The domestic alumina supply is in surplus in 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate of production is expected to be higher than that of demand in the third quarter [20]. - The overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6%. Different sectors showed different trends, but generally faced downward pressure [25]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still relatively strong, but the strength has weakened compared to June. Aluminum prices may fluctuate at a high level in mid - to late July [30]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1260 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [37][38]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - For the LME aluminum variety, the net long position has continued to rise slightly. Since May, the short position has been reduced, and the long position has increased slightly since early June. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [40]. - For the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety, the net long position of the main force has continued to increase slightly. The long - position camp has remained stable, and the short - position camp has decreased slightly. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has decreased slightly, and the net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has remained stable. The market may fluctuate at a high level next week [43].