转载请注明央视财经 编辑：令文芳 中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：中方对日本实施的出口管制措施，对日本造成的影响可能 会体现在以下三个方面。第一是直接影响日本的军事工业，其制造、舰船、导弹等先进装备所需的关键 材料，比如合金和稀土，均被列入了管制清单，包括日本从美国引进的军事装备，也会因依赖中国的稀 土或材料而遭到管制，这将有效阻止日本军工业的发展。第二点是在日本整体经济方面，受管制的稀土 和材料，是日本先进制造业的核心材料，日本在这方面高度依赖中国，若全面限制出口，那么日本的制 造业可能面临供应链断裂的风险，将会遭遇巨大的经济损失和经济衰退风险。第三个层面应该是社会层 面，中方采取的管制措施已经对日本社会民心造成了明显的冲击。日本舆论普遍担忧中日关系的持续恶 化，将对日本经济造成更多不确定性。越来越多的日本经济界人士和有识之士也出来发声，呼吁日本政 府采取有效措施扭转目前的局面。中方的出口管制公告有效精准打击了日本军工业，有力阻止了日 本"再军事化"的进程，是维护国家核心利益和维护地区安全的正义合理之举。 （央视财经《经济信息联播》）日本首相高市早苗近期一系列加速推动军备扩张的举动，不但引发日本 国 ...

1月7日，博迁新材盘中上涨2.02%，截至10:54，报67.32元/股，成交1.50亿元，换手率0.86%，总市值 176.11亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入608.82万元，特大单买入403.06万元，占比2.69%，卖出224.93万元，占 比1.50%；大单买入3532.30万元，占比23.55%，卖出3101.61万元，占比20.68%。 博迁新材今年以来股价涨2.94%，近5个交易日跌2.11%，近20日涨30.26%，近60日涨9.37%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，博迁新材十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第六大流 通股东，持股662.04万股，相比上期增加122.43万股。前海开源新经济混合A（000689）位居第七大流 通股东，持股344.10万股，为新进股东。东方红智华三年持有混合A（012839）位居第九大流通股东， 持股317.53万股，相比上期增加2.37万股。东方红新动力混合A（000480）位居第十大流通股东，持股 299.52万股，相比上期增加28.69万股。睿远成长价值混合A（007119）退出十大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 博迁新材所属申 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port and its full closure starting December 18 will create significant opportunities for various industries, particularly in manufacturing and new materials, by implementing favorable tax policies such as "zero tariffs" for certain imported goods [2][3]. Group 1: Hainan Free Trade Port Overview - The full closure of Hainan Island will create a special customs supervision area, allowing for a series of liberalized policies that facilitate trade with foreign countries while managing imports from the mainland [2]. - The "zero tariff" policy will apply to certain goods imported into Hainan, significantly reducing costs for manufacturing enterprises that require large amounts of equipment and raw materials [2][3]. Group 2: Tax Policies and Economic Impact - The processing value-added exemption from import duties applies to goods produced by encouraged industries that either do not contain imported materials or have over 30% value added from processing in Hainan [3]. - The total value of goods sold domestically under the processing value-added exemption has exceeded 10 billion yuan, with over 800 million yuan in import duties exempted, enhancing the competitiveness of Hainan's manufacturing sector [3]. Group 3: Expansion of Zero Tariff Goods - The range of goods eligible for the "zero tariff" policy has expanded significantly from over 1,900 items to more than 6,600 items, increasing the proportion of zero-tariff goods from 21% to 74% of all tariff items [3]. Group 4: Benefiting Industries - The petrochemical new materials industry in Hainan is highlighted as a key beneficiary, with a historical high output value projected for 2024 and consistent double-digit growth over the past four years [4]. - The Hainan government is promoting a complete industrial chain from upstream exploration and development to downstream new materials production, focusing on olefins, aromatics, and natural gas [4]. Group 5: Key Enterprises in Hainan - The top enterprises in Hainan's manufacturing sector for 2024 include China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) Hainan Refining & Chemical Co., with a projected revenue of 7.89 billion yuan, followed by Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Group Co. and Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical Co. [6][7].

上海唯一聚焦新材料的高质量孵化器 新材料的产业下游可以链接到各种各样的应用行业，其产业特征被形容为"三高三长"——高投入、高难 度、高门槛；长研发周期、长验证周期、长应用周期。这既体现了新材料企业产业化的痛点和难点，也 更彰显了孵化器的必要价值。 上 来源：智通财经记者 蒋乐来 上海新一轮高质量孵化器名单再次扩容。 智通财经（www.thepaper.cn）记者12月11日从上海市科委获悉，巢生上海创新孵化平台、司南脑机智能 孵化器、上海埃米三江新材料产业创新中心、"数通链谷"区块链应用创新孵化器、"大零号湾"科创策源 孵化器、张江高科895孵化器等6家"新生力量"被纳入其中。 2023年6月，上海发布《上海市高质量孵化器培育实施方案》。截至2024年底，已在浦东张江、徐汇西 岸以及临港、嘉定、杨浦等区域，围绕大模型、光电量子、智能传感、人形机器人、合成生物、细胞与 基因治疗等新兴产业领域等前沿赛道，陆续启动建设了12家高质量孵化器。此次扩容后，这一数量达到 18家。 巢生上海创新孵化平台位于浦东张江，重点聚焦生物医药产业合成生物、细胞与基因治疗等领域。该平 台致力于寻找具有颠覆性可能的生命科学底层技术，开展 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-03 现实预期博弈，盘⾯上涨乏⼒ 12⽉中央经济⼯作会议即将召开，海外仍有降息预期，宏观环境偏 暖，但⽬前钢材库存⽔平依旧同⽐偏⾼，需求⾯临转弱压⼒，钢材盘 ⾯上涨乏⼒。铁矿在冬储补库预期下仍有较强⽀撑，需求承压煤焦现 货价格表现疲软，玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 12月中央经济工作会议即将召开，海外仍有降息预期，宏观环境偏 暖，但目前钢材库存水平依旧同比偏高，需求面临转弱压力，钢材盘 面上涨乏力。铁矿在冬储补库预期下仍有较强支撑，需求承压煤焦现 货价格表现疲软，玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水环比下降，钢厂盈利率进一步压缩，后续仍有 部分钢厂安排高炉检修计划，铁水预计延续走弱态势，刚需支撑逐渐 弱化。海外矿山发运环比小幅回升，澳洲发运减少，巴西发运环比大 幅增加，非主流发运略降，本期到港环比减量，港口库存环比继续累 积，全国钢厂进口矿库存下滑，补库需求暂未明显释放，前期价格回 升后进一步上行支撑不足，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢到货偏低， 价格下降后性价比回升，长、短流程钢企废钢需求均有支撑，下方空 ...

Core Viewpoint - Boqian New Materials has experienced a stock price increase of 76.01% year-to-date, but has seen a recent decline in the last five and twenty trading days, indicating potential volatility in its stock performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Boqian New Materials achieved a revenue of 805 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.79% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 152 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 78.17% [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Boqian New Materials increased by 18.44% to 21,000, while the average number of tradable shares per person decreased by 15.57% to 12,434 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 374 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 249 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 14, Boqian New Materials' stock price fell by 2.03% to 50.69 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 23.45 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.18% [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the last occurrence on February 20 [1]. Business Overview - Boqian New Materials, established on November 5, 2010, and listed on December 8, 2020, specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-end metal powder materials for electronics [1]. - The revenue composition of the company includes nickel-based products (76.28%), copper-based products (10.27%), silver powder (4.95%), and alloys (2.16%) [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that 博迁新材's stock has experienced a significant decline, with a 5.25% drop on November 4, leading to a cumulative decline of 11.46% over three consecutive days [1] - 博迁新材's stock price is currently at 50.00 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 248 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.85%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 13.08 billion yuan [1] - The company, established in 2010 and listed in 2020, specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-end metal powder materials for electronics, with its main revenue sources being nickel-based products (76.28%), copper-based products (10.27%), and others [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, 恒生前海基金 has a significant position in 博迁新材, with its fund holding 26,400 shares, representing 1.99% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding [2] - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 73,100 yuan today, with a total floating loss of 180,300 yuan during the three-day decline [2] - The 恒生前海沪港深新兴产业精选混合 fund has shown a year-to-date return of 37.11% and a one-year return of 39.97%, ranking 2161 out of 8150 and 1805 out of 8043 respectively [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current macro - environment is favorable, with positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade consultations and continuous efforts of domestic stable - growth policies. However, the demand side is gradually entering the off - season. The aluminum price's ability to break through above 21,500 yuan/ton remains to be seen, and the overall trend is expected to be strong with fluctuations. It is recommended to hold a small - position long position and wait for the price to rise, and spot enterprises can appropriately increase inventory [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The macro - environment is strong, and domestic main funds are bullish. But as the demand side enters the off - season, the aluminum price's upward momentum above 21,500 yuan/ton needs further observation, and it should be treated as strong with fluctuations [4][11]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy was to hold a small - position long position. This week, it is recommended that spot enterprises appropriately increase inventory [8]. 3.3 Overall View Supply - **Bauxite**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea has weakened, and ore shipments are increasing. There are expectations of local mine复产, so imported ore is expected to be abundant in the fourth quarter. Domestic mine governance policies will have long - term constraints on domestic ore, and supply is unlikely to improve significantly in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Alumina**: As of October 31, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 97.2 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 85.80%. The cost is lower than in the first half of the year, and the industry is still profitable. Alumina production capacity will drive continuous output growth, and the surplus will continue to expand [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In September, domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.6148 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. The annual net increase is expected to be less than 500,000 tons. In the fourth quarter, production may remain high but is unlikely to increase significantly [9]. Demand - **Aluminum Profiles**: The weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum profile industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 53.5%. Construction profiles are still sluggish, and the industry is expected to enter the off - season in November [10]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 66.4%. As November enters the off - season, the operating rate will decline. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable at 71.9%, but there is a risk of weakening terminal demand [10]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The weekly operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 1 percentage point to 63.4%. It is expected to remain in a narrow - range fluctuation [10]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59.2%, and is expected to gradually approach the annual high. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points to 59.1%, and is expected to remain stable or decline slightly in the short term [10]. Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Ingot**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 617,000 tons, remaining stable compared to last week, about 4% higher than the same period last year. It is expected to accumulate inventory again. The inventory of aluminum rods was 131,500 tons, a decrease of about 6% from last week and about 23% higher than last year [10]. - **LME Aluminum**: The LME aluminum inventory increased by about 18% from last week, about 24% lower than last year, and is still at a low level in recent years [10]. Profit - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 0 yuan/ton, down from about 20 yuan/ton last week [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,950 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 4,100 yuan/ton, up from 4,000 yuan/ton last week [11]. Market Expectation - The aluminum price is supported at 20,800 yuan/ton and faces pressure at 21,500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the fundamentals have limited impact on the aluminum price, but the macro - sentiment at home and abroad is still relatively optimistic [11]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, the price of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased moderately. The price of domestic ore remained stable, while the price of imported Guinea ore decreased. The price of alumina continued to decline, and the cost support may increase after the dry season in the southwest region [12]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, while the inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum in some areas increased. The LME aluminum inventory increased significantly but is still at a low level [14][16]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.2%. Affected by multiple factors such as high aluminum prices, environmental protection restrictions, and seasonal changes, the operating rate is expected to decline slowly or fluctuate narrowly [24]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of Shanghai aluminum is weak [29]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,160 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years and has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [36][37]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position continued to rise and is near the high level since April 2022. The overall market is still considered strong [39]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract first decreased and then increased, reaching a recent high. The main funds are bullish [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Bullish Oscillation" for the electrolytic aluminum industry [3][10] Core Viewpoints - The domestic electrolytic aluminum market will remain in a tight - balance state in the fourth quarter, with low domestic and foreign visible inventories and anti - involution factors. The core driver of aluminum prices remains strong. Recently, the Sino - US tariff confrontation has eased, and there is an expected Fed rate cut at the end of the month, so the market at the end of the month should be treated bullishly [4][10] - The opening rates of different downstream aluminum processing sectors show differentiation. While the overall short - term opening rate will continue the stable trend [9][23] - The price of bauxite has slightly adjusted, coal prices have rebounded, and alumina prices have continued to decline in a volatile manner since mid - August due to over - capacity [11] Detailed Summaries by Catalog Overall Situation - The Guinea rainy - season impact on bauxite is weakening, with increased ore shipments and higher mine复产 expectations. The domestic bauxite supply is constrained by policies. The alumina production capacity is increasing, and the over - supply is widening. The growth of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited in the fourth quarter [8] - The opening rates of different downstream aluminum products vary. The overall short - term opening rate of the downstream processing industry will remain stable [9][23][24] - The current profit of alumina is about 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 4000 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively high level [10][18] - The market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate decision. Any positive or negative signals will strongly affect the sentiment of global risk assets [10] Price Changes - The price of bauxite has slightly adjusted. Coal prices have rebounded due to safety inspections and early heating starts. Alumina prices have continued to decline since mid - August due to over - capacity [11] - The prices of most aluminum - related products have increased week - on - week, such as the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract closing price, electrolytic aluminum A00, and aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 [11] Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased. The alumina inventory has continued to accumulate. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory is at a low level and may continue to be sorted at a low level [14][16] Supply and Demand - The overall opening rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing has decreased slightly, showing the characteristics of "stable in the peak season and differentiated internally" [23] - The short - term opening rate of primary aluminum alloy will continue to rise steadily; the demand for aluminum strip is expected to weaken; the aluminum cable high - voltage department has guaranteed orders but limited new growth; automotive profiles are relatively stable, while construction profiles are sluggish, and photovoltaic profiles face production cuts; some aluminum foil orders have weakened; and the resilience of recycled aluminum orders still exists [23] Futures Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is neutral [26] Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2180 yuan/ton, and the current spread has a moderately positive impact on electrolytic aluminum [33][34] Market Funds - The net long position of LME aluminum continues to rise and is near the high since April 2022. The overall market is still treated bullishly [36] - The net long position of the SHFE electrolytic aluminum remains stable at a recent high. The main funds are slightly bullish [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish Oscillation" rating for the electrolytic aluminum industry [12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The electrolytic aluminum market in China will remain in a tight - balanced state in the fourth quarter, and the domestic and foreign visible inventories are at historically low levels. However, Sino - US trade confrontation has cast a shadow over domestic demand. Recently, the market may continue the high - level oscillation pattern, with the AI2512 range expected to be between 20,600 and 21,300 [5][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to show a bullish oscillation. The core drivers of aluminum prices remain strong due to the tight - balanced state of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the fourth quarter, low visible inventories at home and abroad, and anti - involution. But Sino - US trade confrontation affects domestic demand. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Not mentioned in detail - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is advisable to wait and see. Consider grid trading based on the recent fluctuation range. If the price reaches 21,300 during the week, appropriate short - term long positions can be added [8] - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Maintain an appropriate inventory. If the price is below 20,000 yuan, consider replenishing the inventory [9] 3.3 Overall Viewpoints Supply - **Bauxite Market**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is weakening, and the ore shipment volume is increasing. The supply of imported ore is expected to be abundant in the fourth quarter. Domestic mine governance policies will restrict domestic ore supply in the long term, and the supply is unlikely to improve significantly in the fourth quarter [10] - **Alumina Market**: As of October 17, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 96.8 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 86.22%. Alumina plants are still profitable, and production will continue to increase, with the surplus expanding [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. The annual net increase in production is expected to be less than 0.5 million tons. In the fourth quarter, production may remain high but with limited growth [10] - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,340 yuan/ton. The export volume of unforged aluminum products decreased slightly in August and September, and the intensifying Sino - US trade confrontation may put pressure on exports from November to December [10] Demand - **Aluminum Profiles**: The weekly operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 53.5%. The photovoltaic profiles were significantly affected by the reduction in downstream component factory production. The operating rate is expected to be stable but weak in the short term [11] - **Aluminum Plate, Strip, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 68.0%, and is expected to decline gradually. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 72.3%, but may weaken due to weakening demand [11] - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate remained stable at 64%, and is expected to remain weakly stable [11] - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased by 0.4 percentage points to 58.4%, and is expected to continue to be stable. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 58.6%, and is expected to decline slightly in October [11] Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% from last week and about 3% from the same period last year. The supply pressure of aluminum ingots is limited. The inventory of aluminum rods was 143,100 tons, an increase of about 2% from last week and about 8% from the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by about 3% from last week and about 36% from the same period last year, and is expected to remain low [11][17] Profit and Market Expectation - **Alumina Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 20 yuan/ton [12] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,000 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,800 yuan/ton [12] - **Market Expectation**: The market is likely to continue the high - level bullish oscillation at the beginning of the week. However, the downstream's willingness to chase high prices is insufficient after "Silver October" is half over. There is a risk of the price rising and then falling [12] 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of bauxite remained stable overall. The price of alumina continued to decline in an oscillatory manner. The price of thermal coal increased due to safety inspections and early heating in the north. The prices of electrolytic aluminum and alloys were adjusted to some extent [13][14] 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of imported bauxite at domestic ports increased slightly, and the supply is abundant. The overall inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased. The LME aluminum inventory decreased [15][17] 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises remained stable at 62.5%. The production of primary aluminum alloys was stable, while the procurement of aluminum plate and strip enterprises was cautious. The aluminum cable and wire industry was suppressed by multiple factors. The demand for aluminum profiles was weak, and the export of aluminum foil was affected by sanctions. The demand for recycled aluminum was weak [25] 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of Shanghai aluminum is weak [31] 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 was about - 2,160 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years and has a moderately positive impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39] 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position continued to rise and is near the high level since April 2022. The long - position camp has been increasing positions since June, and the short - position camp has been on the sidelines since October [41] - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract increased slightly. The long - position camp increased positions slightly, and the short - position camp remained stable. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation increased slightly [44]